Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with specific ratings for each variety as follows: steel - oscillation; iron ore - oscillation with an upward bias; scrap steel - oscillation; coke - oscillation; coking coal - oscillation with an upward bias; glass - oscillation; manganese silicon - oscillation; silicon iron - oscillation; soda ash - oscillation [8][12][15][16][19] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is favorable, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, as the off - season deepens, demand may weaken, and high inventory levels limit the upside potential. Iron ore prices are strong due to potential restocking demand, while scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation, and coking coal's far - month contracts may oscillate with an upward bias. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to trade around cost levels. Glass and soda ash face over - supply issues, with glass prices likely to oscillate weakly without more cold repairs, and soda ash prices expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [2][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in arrivals this period after a decrease in the previous two weeks. Port inventories slightly declined, and steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. Scrap steel supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and environmental relaxation, coke supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand remained strong, and total inventory continued to decline, but cost support for spot prices weakened, and the market expected price cuts. Coke futures are expected to follow coking coal in oscillation. Coking coal's fundamentals have not significantly weakened, and downstream winter restocking is expected after spot price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [3] Alloy - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels. Silicon iron's cost supports the price bottom, but oversupply restricts the upside, and it is also expected to trade around cost levels [4][7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventories are relatively high, and the current supply - demand is oversupplied. Without more cold repairs by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices, otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15] Steel - Spot market transactions were good, steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm remained high, and steel output slightly increased. Steel demand was resilient, and overall inventory continued to decline, but inventory levels were still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals are improving, and the futures market has the driving force for a low - level rebound, but the upside is limited due to the off - season and high inventory [10] Iron Ore - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated greatly. Spot prices mostly rose. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and the hurricane affected the arrival rhythm. Hot metal production slightly decreased, and restocking demand has not been significantly released. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [10] Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals slightly increased, and electric furnace profits significantly recovered after the decline in scrap prices and the rise in finished product prices. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills slightly decreased, and steel mills slightly replenished their inventories. The supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and it is expected to oscillate [11] Coke - Futures followed coking coal in oscillation. Spot prices declined, and supply slightly increased after the improvement of coking profits and the end of environmental restrictions. Demand was weakening as hot metal production declined slightly. Inventory at coke enterprises slightly increased but remained low. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation [12][13] Coking Coal - Futures were under pressure and oscillated. Spot prices of some varieties declined. Domestic supply remained low, and the fundamentals have not significantly weakened. There is restocking demand for downstream winter storage after price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [14] Manganese Silicon - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions were average, and manufacturers were under cost pressure. Cost support remained strong, but the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [17] Silicon Iron - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions needed improvement. Cost support was strong, but oversupply restricted the upside, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the stock and commodity markets both declined. Overseas, the expectation of US interest rate cuts was dashed, leading to a decline in US stocks and a contraction in global stock market liquidity. Domestically, economic data was weak, new energy negotiations were pending, and institutional portfolio adjustments contributed to the decline. In the fourth quarter, both policies and performance entered a lull, with a weak fundamental outlook and a lack of a clear narrative in the market. The market is more looking forward to the spring market. The soda ash market showed a weak trend as expected last week, with weekly lows approaching the June low. The soda ash futures price dropped significantly due to the cold repair expectation of float glass production lines on the demand side and the intensification of negative feedback. It is expected that the price will oscillate and recover next week, but the medium - term price range will still move down. For glass, the 01 contract price fell below 1000. Due to the cyclical downturn in the real estate market, the improvement in the spot - side fundamentals was limited, demand was weak, and the large mid - stream inventory was a major concern. The short - term focus is on the effect of manufacturers' price - for - volume strategy and daily sales data. If the terminal demand does not improve substantially, the glass price may still have room to decline. [15][24] Summary According to the Directory 1. Soda Ash Analysis 1.1 Soda Ash Supply - This week, soda ash production was 721,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons (- 2.5%). Both light and heavy soda decreased, with light soda down 4000 tons and heavy soda down 15,000 tons week - on - week. The decline in production was due to the reduced load of some devices such as Henan Junhua, Jiangsu Jingshen, etc., while Gansu Jinchang's production recovery offset part of the reduction. The raw salt price was stable, and the thermal coal price increased slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the soda ash by the Chinese joint - alkali process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali process was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [8] 1.2 Soda Ash Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 784,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 416,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 3.1%), and that for light soda was 368,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 7.3%). The daily output of float glass was 158,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons per day, and the output of photovoltaic glass was stable at 89,000 tons. The futures price dropped significantly this week, mid - stream shipments were at a historical high, some heavy soda manufacturers in Qinghai lowered prices, while light soda sales were good, and prices increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton in various regions. The weekly shipments of soda ash in the spot and futures markets were about 200,000 tons, a significant week - on - week increase. The delivery price in Shahe was about 1130 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan), corresponding to SA01 - 30, and the basis strengthened. Currently, the mid - stream inventory is large, with a structural inventory build - up, but the overall inventory pressure is not great. With the weakening demand for float glass downstream and the stable coal price, the price has been weak recently. [11] 1.3 Soda Ash Inventory - Upstream: Soda ash factory inventory decreased to 1.644 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,000 tons. Among them, heavy soda inventory decreased by 20,000 tons, and light soda inventory decreased by 43,000 tons. In terms of regions, the factory inventory in the northwest decreased by 47,000 tons to 657,000 tons, and that in the southwest decreased by 1000 tons to 607,000 tons, while the inventory in the north increased by 3500 tons to 224,000 tons. Mid - stream: The mid - stream inventory decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 2% to 653,000 tons, and there were 0 warehouse receipts. Downstream: In float glass enterprises, 33% of the sample factories had a soda ash inventory of 20.87 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 days. [14] 2. Glass Analysis 2.1 Glass Supply - The daily output of float glass was 158,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons per day, with a production line in the northeast shutting down. Currently, there are 222 operating production lines. According to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 206.84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - gas as fuel was 25.79 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.47 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel was 8.52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.00 yuan/ton. The contraction in supply is mainly driven by environmental protection policies rather than market self - clearing, which is difficult to fundamentally reverse the supply - demand pattern. If the price continues to fall, the number of production lines with cold repair plans before the Spring Festival may increase. [18] 2.2 Glass Demand - On the demand side, Hubei manufacturers lowered prices twice this week, and Shahe manufacturers lowered prices on Monday. According to Longzhong, after Minghong's price adjustment to 1040 yuan/ton, the sales - to - production ratio was still weak. Due to the cyclical downturn in the real estate market, the improvement in the spot - side fundamentals was limited, demand was weak, and the large mid - stream inventory was a major concern. As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of the national深加工 sample enterprises was 9.9 days, a week - on - week decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Since November, the average number of orders held by deep - processing samples in each region has decreased compared with the beginning of the month. The weak order situation has also led to some deep - processing factories having temporary holidays. Currently, the number of order days held by the surveyed deep - processing enterprises is mostly 2 - 5 days, with some orders scheduled for 7 - 15 days, and a few engineering orders with longer schedules. Near the end of the year, deep - processing enterprises still remain cautious about signing debt - related orders. This week (from November 7 to November 13, 2025), the operating rate of the Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 76.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. [21] 2.3 Glass Market Performance and Strategy - The price of the glass 01 contract fell below 1000. Due to the cyclical downturn in the real estate market, the improvement in the spot - side fundamentals was limited, demand was weak, and the large mid - stream inventory was a major concern. The rapid decline in the soda ash futures price this week weakened the cost support for glass. In terms of supply, the daily melting volume of glass was 158,200 tons. The short - term focus is on the effect of manufacturers' price - for - volume strategy and core daily sales data. If manufacturers in major production areas such as Hubei continue to lower prices but the terminal demand does not improve substantially and the sales - to - production ratio fails to recover, the glass price may still have room to decline. The trading volume of the glass 01 contract reached 1.99 million hands, a year - on - year increase of 86.6%. Attention should be paid to regulatory risks. As the near - month price falls, the market has started the cold repair expectation logic. Attention can be paid to the reverse - spread strategy and the strategy of going long on FG05 and short on SA05. It is expected that the market will enter an oscillation next week, and the medium - term trend is still weak. [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The price is likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3] - For iron ore, in the macro vacuum period, the market is likely to follow the real - world logic. It has strong supply, stable demand, and some resource shortages, and is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] - For ferroalloys, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of December's macro - events on market sentiment is expected. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [15][16] - For polysilicon, it is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21] - For soda ash, it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23] Group 3: Summary of Each Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3057 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [2] Strategy Views - Rebar has both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory reduction, showing a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have rising terminal demand, slightly decreasing production, but still high inventory levels. In the short term, due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00). The position changed by - 16984 hands to 46.05 million hands. The weighted position was 92.33 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.34 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.25% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly. Both Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rose. Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory was consumed. Overall, the total inventory is still high, with some resource shortages, and it is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 21, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5606 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 234 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.48% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, at a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures [8][10] Strategy Views - The market risk appetite weakened last week. Ferroalloy prices declined significantly but may stop falling. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short - sell. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not good, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 115). The weighted position changed by - 14960 hands to 427668 hands. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 390 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 40 yuan/ton [14] - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53360 yuan/ton, up 1.73% (+ 910). The weighted position changed by - 6326 hands to 232072 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1060 yuan/ton [17] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price continued to weaken last Friday. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is stable. The cost provides support, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner in the short term [15][16] - Polysilicon: It is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million boxes (0.09%) week - on - week [20] - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons week - on - week [22] Strategy Views - Glass: The expectation of cold - repair of production lines in December is increasing, but the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21] - Soda ash: Although some devices were overhauled last week, the market is still oversupplied. The demand is divided, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves [23]

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a 10.6464% stake in Yingen Mining, which will solidify its leading position in the soda ash market. Post-acquisition, the company will hold a 70.6464% stake in Yingen Mining, enhancing its production capabilities in soda ash and sodium bicarbonate [2][7]. - The report forecasts a decline in total revenue for 2025, with a projected revenue of 12,260 million yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2026 with a 25.2% increase [2][8]. - The company's net profit is expected to decrease to 1,468 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 18.9% year-on-year, before rebounding to 2,218 million yuan in 2026 [2][8]. - The report highlights the impact of low demand in the domestic soda ash market, particularly due to sluggish demand from the photovoltaic glass and flat glass sectors, leading to a significant drop in product prices [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 13,264 million yuan, 2025E: 12,260 million yuan, 2026E: 15,354 million yuan, and 2027E: 16,260 million yuan [2][8]. - The expected net profit figures are: 2024A: 1,811 million yuan, 2025E: 1,468 million yuan, 2026E: 2,218 million yuan, and 2027E: 2,688 million yuan [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.49 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.39 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 0.60 yuan in 2026 and 0.72 yuan in 2027 [2][8]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 15 in 2024, increasing to 18 in 2025, and then decreasing to 12 in 2026 and 10 in 2027 [2][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. With high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory, the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals suggest an overall ample supply as alkali plants are at high production levels and Yuanxing's Phase II is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. Downstream float glass supply has disturbance expectations, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -33 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positives**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Likely Negatives**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1182 | 1140 | - 42 | | Current Value | 1158 | 1125 | - 33 | | Change Rate | - 2.03% | - 1.32% | - 21.43% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamental Analysis - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 232 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.92 million tons, including 41.09 million tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant increase in new soda ash production capacity. The planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025, with 100 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 million tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamental Analysis The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increase, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and slight inventory accumulation under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weak demand except for agricultural film. The cost side has fluctuating crude oil and strong coal, and PDH profits continue to weaken [2]. Crude Oil - The US proposed a new plan to restart the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation, causing geopolitical premiums to decline and oil prices to fall. OPEC+ is continuously increasing production, and US crude oil production is at a new high, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern and significant pressure on oil prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to find support at $60 per barrel [3]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Domestic production areas are entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and rainfall in overseas areas keeps raw material prices high. However, the arrival of overseas ships is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on digesting channel inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The market is in an overall surplus situation. Supply is high, and downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is recommended to wait for rebounds to short [7]. - Glass: Recently, prices have been falling, and low prices have driven better sales. However, there are still production line restarts in the future, which will increase supply pressure. In the short term, there is some rigid demand support, but in the long term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation is under pressure. The main downstream, alumina, has reduced purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is some supply reduction in the East China region, the long - term supply - demand pressure remains large, and prices are expected to be weak [8]. - PVC: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply is still at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The export situation is not optimistic, and the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with prices expected to remain at the bottom [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, but supply remains high. Demand is weak, and although there are some supporting factors, the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - PTA: After the maintenance of some devices, the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively balanced in November and more relaxed from December to the first quarter. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply remains high, and overseas shipments will be concentrated in November, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak basis. It is under pressure above, and corresponding option and spread strategies are recommended [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price drive is limited, and processing fees are expected to be compressed [9]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply changes little, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal accumulation period. The processing fee will follow the raw material cost [9]. Methanol - In the inland market, production will continue to increase, and marginal devices are in a loss state. In the port market, Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, resulting in high inventory and weak prices. The core contradiction is high port inventory, and the "weak reality" logic will continue [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Although there are maintenance expectations for some devices, imports are expected to be high, and overall supply may be relatively loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is large, and the short - term BZ2603 contract is recommended to be observed [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has improved, with export expectations and falling port inventory. However, profit recovery may lead to delayed maintenance and new device trials, and downstream EPS demand is expected to weaken, so the upside space is limited [13]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have different price changes, and there are also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01. Spot prices of PP and LLDPE in some regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased to varying degrees. PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 also show different trends [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices have declined, and there are also changes in spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent. Product oil prices and spreads have also changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of various natural rubber products have changed, and there are also changes in monthly spreads such as 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in September in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China has changed. Tire production, export, and import data in October have also changed, as well as开工率 data [5]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory have increased, while some出库 and入库 rates have changed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and basis has also changed [7]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate and weekly output have decreased slightly, and glass melting volume has remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory have increased, while soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory has decreased [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and there are also changes in spreads [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率 and industry profits have changed, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC has also changed. Inventory has decreased to some extent [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have remained stable, and cash flows have changed [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads have changed, and开工率 has decreased [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, basis, and processing fees have changed, and开工率 has decreased slightly [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and开工率 has changed slightly [9]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices have changed, and basis and regional spreads have also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have decreased [10]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol have changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of pure benzene and related spreads have changed, and import profits have also changed [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and cash flows have also changed [13]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories have changed, and产业链开工率 has also changed [13].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货11月19日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 持仓量 （万手） | 持仓量变 化 | | SA601 | 1213 | 1214 | 1180 | 1182 | -38 | -3.11 | 134.57 | 82458 | | SA605 | 1286 | 1286 | 1256 | 1257 | -36 | -2.78 | 35.22 | 13326 | | FG601 | 1019 | 1024 | 1005 | 1009 | -16 | -1.56 | 199.05 | 2524 | | FG605 | 1152 | 1156 | 1136 | ...