Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a correction in the upcoming week due to various technical and quantitative indicators suggesting a weakening market sentiment [1][2]. Market Analysis - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 1.71, indicating that current market liquidity is 1.71 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.80, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.07% and 1.65%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight declines of -0.08% and -0.1% respectively [2]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22,400 billion, exceeding the consensus forecast of 18,447.29 billion and the previous value of 6,200 billion [2]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing both the consensus forecast of 8.08% and the previous value of 7.9% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A Index remains above the SAR point, but the index and SAR point are now closely aligned [2]. - The moving average strength index is currently at 253, placing it in the 93.8 percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 1 out of 5, indicating a decrease in market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of July 14-18, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.28%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, the CSI 500 Index gained 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.17% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.4 times, which is at the 65.3 percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observation - The small-cap factor crowding is at a high level with a score of 1.07, while the low valuation factor crowding is at 0.36 [3]. - The industry crowding levels are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, steel, and non-bank financial sectors, with notable increases in steel and pharmaceutical industries [3].

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]

Group 1 - Korean investors have shown increasing interest in Chinese stocks, with a cumulative trading volume of approximately $5.514 billion in 2023, making China the second most favored overseas market for Korean investors, following the United States [1] - The trading volume of Korean investors in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks surged to $782 million in February 2023, nearly doubling from the previous month, marking the highest level since August 2022 [2] - The recent launch of AI models in China has attracted global capital, further fueling Korean investors' enthusiasm for the Chinese market [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in activity, with total fundraising exceeding 100 billion HKD in the first half of 2023, surpassing levels from the past three years [3] - Notable IPOs include CATL raising 41.006 billion HKD and Hengrui Medicine raising 11.374 billion HKD, among others, indicating strong investor interest across various sectors [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's report indicates that despite macroeconomic fluctuations, Asian stock markets are performing better than global counterparts, with a constructive mid-term outlook for Chinese stocks, particularly in the consumer sector [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts sustained global investor interest in Chinese assets, while Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI advancements could lead to a 2.5% annual increase in overall earnings for Chinese stocks over the next decade [7] - JPMorgan anticipates a continued revaluation of Chinese tech stocks, projecting an average annual return of 7.8% over the next 10 to 15 years [7]

当下，市场涨到了什么位置？ 数据显示，周K线来看，沪指已运行至去年"9·24"行情以来的次高位；下一个目标，便是反包10月8日当周的大阴线，不过仍有约140点的上涨空间。 | 已反包 | 未反包 | 曾反包但回落 | | --- | --- | --- | | 中证2000 | 深证成指 | 科创50 | | 北证50 | 创业板指 | 中证1000 | | 万得微盘股指数 | 沪深300 | | | | 中证500 | | | | 红利指数 | | 刚过去的交易周（7月14日至7月18日），A股实现连续4周上涨，"慢牛"趋势进一步显露。个股方面，超3100家本周累计上涨。 万得全A指数，距离完成反包则仅有一步之遥。 其他主要股指，目前对10月8日当周阴线的反包进度如下↓ 可见在"慢牛"行情中，不同标的的上涨幅度也有高下之别；而这也可能成为后市"高低切"的依据。 比如，从近四周表现来看，中证2000指数代表的小盘股虽然累计涨幅领先，但其高光时刻出现在前期；最近两周，其实际涨幅均弱于创业板指。 而创业板指不仅本周涨幅最大，近四周整体表现也排在前列（+13.29%），这一定程度上体现了资金偏好的变化。 | 证券简 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.69% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index saw a gain of 3.17%. The CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3,104 stocks rose, accounting for 57.33%, while 2,220 stocks declined [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The total net outflow of main funds this week was 104.887 billion yuan. The ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 37.661 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw a net outflow of 4.081 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 constituents had a net outflow of 18.339 billion yuan [2] - The main funds in the electronic industry had the largest net outflow, totaling 12.687 billion yuan, despite a weekly increase of 2.15%. The non-bank financial sector also saw a net outflow of 11.333 billion yuan with a weekly decline of 1.24% [3] Industry Performance - Among the 19 primary industries classified by Shenwan, the telecommunications and pharmaceutical sectors had the highest gains, with increases of 7.56% and 4.00%, respectively. Conversely, the media and real estate sectors experienced declines of 2.24% and 2.17% [2] - The electronic industry led in net outflow, followed by non-bank financials, computers, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals [3] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,486 stocks saw net inflows this week, with 182 stocks having net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan. The stock with the highest net inflow was C Huaxin, which fell by 7.38% but had a net inflow of 3.112 billion yuan. Other notable inflows were from Jianghuai Automobile and Kweichow Moutai, with net inflows of 1.661 billion yuan and 1.025 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Conversely, 403 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the largest outflows from Dongfang Caifu, Sairisi, and ST Huatuo, amounting to 2.804 billion yuan, 2.313 billion yuan, and 1.685 billion yuan, respectively [5]

Market Performance - A-shares steadily advanced this week, with the ChiNext Index reaching a new high for the year and the Shenzhen Component Index hitting a four-month high, approaching its highest point of the year [1] - Weekly trading volume increased to 7.73 trillion yuan, marking the largest weekly trading volume in three months [1] Fund Inflows - Leverage funds actively entered the market, with most industries under the Shenwan first-level industry classification seeing net buying, particularly the computer industry with over 4.4 billion yuan and the electronics industry with over 3 billion yuan [2] - The electronic, biopharmaceutical, and automotive sectors each received over 20 billion yuan in net inflows, while the non-bank financial sector saw a net outflow of over 8.3 billion yuan [2] Rare Earth Demand - The rare earth sector performed strongly, with the rare earth permanent magnet index reaching a three-and-a-half-year high [3] - Demand for rare earths is expected to grow rapidly due to advancements in humanoid robots and electric vehicles, with estimates suggesting a demand of at least 70,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron by 2025 [3] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector, including lithium and cobalt, reached a two-year high, with lithium carbonate futures breaking 70,000 yuan/ton, marking a 20% increase from recent lows [4] - Short-term lithium salt supply may decline due to reduced exports from Chile and domestic production halts, leading to a potential price stabilization [4] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, with the innovative drug index hitting record highs multiple times this week [6] - Notable stocks in the sector, such as Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Aosaikang, experienced consecutive trading halts, with some stocks showing year-to-date gains exceeding 200% [6][7] Earnings Forecasts - Several pharmaceutical companies have recently forecasted substantial profit increases for the first half of 2025, with estimates suggesting net profit growth exceeding 19 times for some firms [7]

Market Overview - On July 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37%, the ChiNext Index went up by 0.34%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.60% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 2,603 stocks rose, accounting for 48.15%, while 2,567 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital saw a net outflow of 22.987 billion yuan throughout the day [1] - The ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 11.028 billion yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 2.009 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 300 constituent stocks had a net inflow of 2.142 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 28 primary industries classified by Shenwan, 22 industries saw an increase, with the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors leading with gains of 2.10% and 1.36%, respectively [1] - The media and electronics sectors had the largest declines, with drops of 0.98% and 0.49% [1] Industry Capital Inflow and Outflow - The non-ferrous metals industry had the highest net inflow of capital, totaling 3.794 billion yuan, and rose by 2.10% [1] - The non-bank financial sector saw a net inflow of 0.897 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.33% [1] - The electronics industry had the largest net outflow, with a total of 8.341 billion yuan and a decline of 0.49% [1] - The computer sector experienced a net outflow of 4.375 billion yuan, despite a daily increase of 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,835 stocks had net inflows, with 661 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan, and 70 stocks with inflows over 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Northern Rare Earth, which rose by 9.87% with a net inflow of 2.109 billion yuan [2] - Other notable inflows included China Oil Capital and Wanhua Chemical, with net inflows of 1.150 billion yuan and 0.849 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, 101 stocks had net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Changshan Beiming, Shenghong Technology, and Hengbao shares leading the outflows at 1.302 billion yuan, 1.087 billion yuan, and 0.716 billion yuan, respectively [2]

股价表现方面，特大单资金净流入超2亿元个股今日平均上涨7.45%，表现强于沪指。具体看，上述个 股今日全线上涨，股价以涨停收盘的有东方锆业、恒为科技等。 所属行业来看，上述特大单净流入资金居前个股中，有色金属、计算机、非银金融行业最为集中，上榜 个股分别有5只、4只、2只。（数据宝） 特大单净流入资金排名 两市全天特大单净流出103.22亿元，其中21股特大单净流入超2亿元，北方稀土特大单净流入22.37亿 元，特大单净流入资金居首。 沪指今日收盘上涨0.50%。资金面上看，沪深两市全天特大单净流出103.22亿元，共计1755股特大单净 流入，2928股特大单净流出。 从申万一级行业来看，今日有12个行业特大单资金净流入，有色金属特大单净流入规模居首，净流入资 金40.06亿元，该行业指数今日上涨2.10%，其次是非银金融，今日上涨0.33%，净流入资金为10.13亿 元，净流入资金居前的还有基础化工、交通运输等行业。 特大单资金净流出的行业共有19个，净流出资金最多的是电子，特大单净流出资金56.71亿元，其次是 计算机，特大单净流出资金24.36亿元，净流出资金居前的还有通信、传媒等行业。 具体到个股来 ...

沪指7月18日上涨0.50%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有22个，涨幅居前的行业为有色金属、基础化 工，涨幅分别为2.10%、1.36%。跌幅居前的行业为传媒、电子，跌幅分别为0.98%、0.49%。传媒行业 位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出229.87亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，有色金属行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.10%，全天净流入资金37.94亿元，其次是非银金融行业，日 涨幅为0.33%，净流入资金为8.97亿元。 传媒行业今日下跌0.98%，全天主力资金净流出22.91亿元，该行业所属的个股共130只，今日上涨的有 51只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有75只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个 股有44只，其中，净流入资金超3000万元的有5只，净流入资金居首的是世纪天鸿，今日净流入资金 3.10亿元，紧随其后的是易点天下、奥飞娱乐，净流入资金分别为6277.38万元、4956.16万元。传媒行 业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超亿元的有8只，净流出资金居前的有ST华通、巨人网络、中文在 线，净流出资金分别为4.75亿元、3.30亿 ...