Core Viewpoint - The China Mining Association released the "Top Ten Mining News of 2025," highlighting significant developments in the mining sector, including legislative changes, major discoveries, and advancements in technology. Group 1: Legislative and Regulatory Developments - The revised "Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China" will take effect on July 1, focusing on enhancing support for strategic mineral resources exploration and extraction, and ensuring competitive bidding for mining rights [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources clarified the rules for the minimum price for mining rights transfer, ensuring that the pricing follows market principles and remains confidential until the end of the transaction [8] Group 2: Major Discoveries and Achievements - The first domestic thousand-ton gold mine was discovered in China, with a total gold metal amount of 1,444.49 tons located in the Dadonggou gold mine in Liaoning Province [3] - New copper resources exceeding 20 million tons were discovered in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, forming four major copper resource bases with a potential forecast of 150 million tons [5] - China's lithium reserves have increased significantly, rising from 6% to 16.5% of the global total, making it the second-largest lithium reserve holder in the world [9] Group 3: Industry Events and Recognitions - The 27th China International Mining Conference was held on October 23, attracting professionals from over 40 countries [4] - Zijin Mining ranked fourth among Chinese companies and first among global metal mining companies in terms of return on net assets, as reported in the 2025 Fortune Global 500 list [6] - The successful launch of China's first geological hyperspectral remote sensing satellite, "Geology No. 1," on May 17, represents a significant technological advancement in geological information acquisition [7] Group 4: Production Milestones - In 2025, China's crude oil production is expected to reach approximately 215 million tons, and natural gas production is projected to exceed 260 billion cubic meters, both setting historical records [11]

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the US - Ukraine meeting and Saudi's air - strikes in Yemen bring geopolitical premiums to oil prices, while the short - term cease - fire is difficult, which restricts Russia's oil production and export [1]. - Precious metals have a significant decline recently. Although supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, the large increase driven by funds has accumulated risks, and exchanges have adjusted margins and trading restrictions [2]. - Different metals and energy products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper shows tight supply in 2026 Q1, while aluminum's follow - up rise lacks fundamental drive [3][4]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors like weather, supply, and demand. For instance, South American weather impacts soybean prices, and domestic policies and procurement affect domestic soybean prices [34][37]. - Building materials and chemical products' prices are also influenced by supply - demand relationships and policies. For example, PVC has a high - supply and low - demand pattern, and polypropylene's demand is weak [27][26]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper decreased in position to 96,000. It has priced in the tight supply of copper concentrates in 2026, especially Q1. The domestic spot discount has widened, and the SMM social inventory has increased to 214,800 tons. Hold an option combination of selling a call option with a strike price of 104,000 and buying a put option with a strike price of 98,000 [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, precious metals' sharp decline led to a fall in non - ferrous metals. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the rise, with weak fundamental drive, poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Long positions should be held with the 40 - day line as support, and the trend may adjust if it breaks [4]. - **Zinc**: TC continues to decline, refineries' production cuts continue, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased by 13,000 tons to 111,900 tons. The supply - side pressure has weakened, but consumption is in the off - season. The price of Shanghai zinc may fluctuate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Shanghai nickel has adjusted. The quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 will be reduced to 2.5 billion tons, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be modified. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Tin**: Overnight, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased, and it may continue to fall towards the long - term moving average. It is recommended to hold a call option with a strike price of 350,000 and observe the adjustment range [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It has a limit - down. The futures price is in a strong - side shock, but above 120,000 yuan, it deviates from the fundamentals, and it is short - term bearish [10]. Energy - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support prices in the short term, but do not change the supply - surplus situation. Low - sulfur supply is affected by overseas refinery operations, and the demand for ship fuel is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak - side operation [20]. - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment has been below 400,000 tons. The geopolitical conflict may bring a phased rebound, but it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand looseness [21]. Building Materials - **Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil)**: The night - session steel prices fluctuated. Rebar's apparent demand decreased in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil's demand recovered. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price may fluctuate in a range [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment has increased, and the domestic arrival volume may increase in the future. With the iron - making water production likely at the bottom, there is support for the short - term price, but it is expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of both fluctuated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience, but the pressure on raw material prices remains. The price may face fundamental pressure after correcting the premium or discount [15][16]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol market is strong. The port inventory increased last week, but it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session oil price rebounded, and the pure benzene price slightly declined. The port inventory is high, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. It is advisable to consider the spread positive arbitrage in the medium - term [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The demand support for the market is weak. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand for polypropylene is also weak [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is strong. The cold weather makes farmers reluctant to sell. The price of Dalian corn futures may oscillate strongly in the short - term [38]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend. The short - term price may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is in a low - level oscillation. The 2 - month contract may be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be relatively strong [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased yesterday. Although the new cotton production increased this year, the commercial inventory is low, and the sales progress is fast. The price shows an oscillating and strong trend [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, and the Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded, but the rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is scarce, and the market demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view [43]. Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - Europe Line)**: The current spot freight rate is around $2900/FEU. Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate may first rise and then fall. The market will become clearer after the release of the opening - cabin price in mid - January [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price dropped significantly yesterday. The short - term rise is limited by weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [45]. - **Stock Index**: A - share indices were mixed yesterday, and stock index futures closed down. In a loose liquidity and strong - RMB environment, A - shares are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to track the rotation opportunities of different sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures generally closed down on December 29, 2025. The short - end has strong certainty, and it is advisable to participate in the curve - steepening strategy in the short - term [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's interest rate meeting was overall dovish. With the US fundamentals and inflation both in a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity further heated up. The SEP of this meeting showed an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the probability of the relatively dovish candidate Hassett being nominated is increasing. Before his nomination and assumption of office, it may be the most fluent stage for trading on liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [7]. - Domestic macro: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference was moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, continuing the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance [7]. - Asset views: The current macro environment is still beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metal varieties with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be maintained on other non - ferrous varieties (tin, lithium carbonate). Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The combination of strong demand for industrial products from emerging markets and expected interest rate cuts in the US is favorable for industrial commodities. The supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum are still tight, which may stimulate their further strengthening. The equity - index futures may lack upward momentum after the important meetings, and are relatively defensive [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations 3.1.1 Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures: CSI 300 futures rose 1.75% daily, 0.09% weekly, 1.61% monthly, - 0.86% quarterly, and 16.76% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures rose 1.21% daily, 0.01% weekly, 0.81% monthly, - 0.06% quarterly, and 11.55% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures rose 1.95% daily, - 0.38% weekly, 2.47% monthly, - 1.97% quarterly, and 25.54% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures rose 1.47% daily, - 0.91% weekly, 0.47% monthly, - 1.50% quarterly, and 24.73% year - to - date [2][4]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures rose 0.01% daily, - 0.03% weekly, 0.05% monthly, 0.14% quarterly, and - 0.52% year - to - date; 5 - year bond futures rose 0.04% daily, 0.02% weekly, 0.09% monthly, 0.30% quarterly, and - 0.66% year - to - date; 10 - year bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.02% weekly, 0.06% monthly, 0.44% quarterly, and - 0.84% year - to - date; 30 - year bond futures rose 0.67% daily, - 0.29% weekly, - 2.05% monthly, - 1.26% quarterly, and - 5.63% year - to - date [2][4]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was flat daily, - 0.18% weekly, - 1.23% monthly, 0.41% quarterly, and - 9.46% year - to - date; the euro - US dollar exchange rate had 0 pips daily change, 6 pips weekly, 146 pips monthly, 13 pips quarterly, and 1394 pips year - to - date; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was flat daily, - 0.71% weekly, - 0.92% monthly, 4.60% quarterly, and - 1.57% year - to - date [2][4]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate had 0 bp daily change, 2 bp weekly, - 2 bp monthly, 3 bp quarterly, and - 27 bp year - to - date; the 10Y Chinese government bond yield had - 0.3 bp daily change, 0.6 bp weekly, 0.5 bp monthly, - 1.5 bp quarterly, and 0.2 bp year - to - date; the 10Y US government bond yield had - 3 bp daily change, - 4 bp weekly, 0.01 bp monthly, - 1 bp quarterly, and - 40 bp year - to - date [2][4]. - Shipping and precious metals: The European container shipping route rose 0.77% daily, 1.31% weekly, 15.48% monthly, 3.47% quarterly, and - 24.69% year - to - date; gold rose 0.85% daily, 0.93% weekly, 2.70% monthly, 11.74% quarterly, and 58.63% year - to - date; silver rose 5.77% daily, 4.16% weekly, 21.88% monthly, 41.69% quarterly, and 107.66% year - to - date [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper rose 0.98% daily, - 1.43% weekly, 6.20% monthly, 11.76% quarterly, and 25.82% year - to - date; aluminum rose 0.32% daily, - 1.15% weekly, 1.22% monthly, 5.87% quarterly, and 10.79% year - to - date; zinc fell - 0.26% daily, - 2.69% weekly, 2.43% monthly, 5.01% quarterly, and - 9.78% year - to - date [2][4]. - Black metals and building materials: Iron ore rose 0.92% daily, 0.99% weekly, 0.00% monthly, 1.12% quarterly, and - 1.41% year - to - date; coke rose 1.06% daily, 3.76% weekly, - 2.79% monthly, - 5.70% quarterly, and - 15.54% year - to - date; coking coal fell - 0.52% daily, 4.48% weekly, - 7.81% monthly, - 12.38% quarterly, and - 8.49% year - to - date [2][4]. 3.1.2 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil fell - 2.66% daily, - 4.10% weekly, - 5.66% monthly, - 11.63% quarterly, and - 23.24% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil fell - 2.52% daily, - 3.89% weekly, - 5.58% monthly, - 11.05% quarterly, and - 21.37% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas fell - 2.43% daily, - 3.97% weekly, - 19.00% monthly, 18.22% quarterly, and 8.40% year - to - date [3][4]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell - 0.05% daily, rose 0.06% weekly, 1.78% monthly, 11.44% quarterly, and 64.14% year - to - date; COMEX silver fell - 0.52% daily, rose 2.75% weekly, 11.75% monthly, 36.20% quarterly, and 117.80% year - to - date [3][4]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper fell - 0.57% daily, rose 0.58% weekly, 3.97% monthly, 12.85% quarterly, and 32.31% year - to - date; LME aluminum rose 0.26% daily, 0.26% weekly, 0.61% monthly, 7.28% quarterly, and 12.93% year - to - date; LME zinc fell - 1.94% daily, - 3.31% weekly, - 0.52% monthly, 2.66% quarterly, and 1.54% year - to - date [3][4]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans fell - 0.91% daily, - 1.21% weekly, - 6.51% monthly, 6.25% quarterly, and 5.27% year - to - date; CBOT corn fell - 0.80% daily, - 1.02% weekly, - 2.62% monthly, 4.81% quarterly, and - 4.96% year - to - date; CBOT wheat fell - 2.26% daily, - 3.92% weekly, - 5.48% monthly, 0.30% quarterly, and - 7.62% year - to - date [3][4]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with attention on the over - crowding of small - cap funds [8]. - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market trading volume slightly declined, with attention on the under - expected liquidity in the options market [8]. - Bond futures are expected to fluctuate as the bond market remains weak, with attention on policy, fundamental - repair, and tariff - factor surprises [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and economic - trade tensions ease, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity - market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, with attention on the rate of freight - price decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon, manganese - silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to fluctuate, with various factors such as special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, and cost support being the focus [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to fluctuate, with factors like trade frictions, inventory changes, and supply - side disturbances being the focus [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastics, styrene, PVC, caustic soda, and oils are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as OPEC+ production policy, cost - end progress, and supply disturbances being the focus [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Protein meal, corn/starch, and synthetic rubber are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as weather, domestic demand, and crude - oil price fluctuations being the focus; natural rubber, cotton, sugar, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as demand, inventory, and macro - economic changes being the focus [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black industry have limited bright spots, and prices are under pressure. Glass and soda ash prices rebounded from low levels due to supply - side disturbances. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, there may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts. Attention should be paid to the potential for short - term upward movements driven by improved macro sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream mines. Port stocks increased, steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased, and the demand for restocking has not been significantly released. Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' profitability declined. The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - The supply of scrap steel increased while demand remained stable. After the price decline, its cost - effectiveness improved, and the downside space is limited. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and relaxation of environmental protection measures, coke supply stabilized. In the short term, the rigid demand from steel mills remained strong, and the total inventory remained low. However, the cost support for spot goods continued to weaken, and the market expected price cuts. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Domestic coking coal supply remained low, and its fundamentals have not significantly weakened. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation of restocking for winter storage. The near - term futures contracts are affected by delivery, and the price is expected to oscillate. The far - term contracts are undervalued, and the fundamentals strongly support the price [3] Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon provides support, but the market supply and demand remain loose, and the upward pressure on prices is significant. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6]. - The firm cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply and demand are still loose, suppressing the upward price space. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions for glass, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices; otherwise, prices may rise. The soda ash price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is weakening, and the steel inventory is higher than the same period last year. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and the profitability continued to decline. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply increased while demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Coke**: Supply increased as profits improved, and cost support weakened. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals marginally weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. - **Glass**: Affected by the expected price increase from manufacturers, the sales improved. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be under pressure; otherwise, they may rise [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost provides support, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost supports the bottom, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].