Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is experiencing weak sentiment with prices trending downwards due to high post - holiday production, average demand, slow inventory reduction, and shrinking steel mill profits. The market is also influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - The iron ore market is under cautious observation with prices weakening. Although demand is resilient, the expected increase in future supply and high current price valuations suggest potential downside risks, especially considering possible steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows no obvious supply - demand contradictions and is expected to move in a sideways pattern. Macroeconomic policies and supply - demand dynamics on both sides need to be monitored [5][6]. - The动力煤 market has seen rising prices in the production areas due to positive downstream demand. In the short term, prices will move sideways, while in the long - term, the supply remains ample [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil at 3421 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 94,577 tons, a daily decrease of 10.8% and a weekly increase of 17.51%. Post - holiday steel production remained high, demand was average, inventory reduction was slow, and steel mill profits continued to shrink [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for single - side trading is to expect a sideways - to - downward movement [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports declined. The total transaction volume of main ports was 185.9 million tons, a 95.27% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 91 million tons, a 44.44% increase. Iron ore arrivals increased significantly this week, iron - water production remained high, and port inventories increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended single - side trading strategy is a sideways - to - downward movement [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The futures of double - coking oscillated. The coke market was stable, with most steel mills purchasing for immediate needs. The production of coking coal was gradually recovering, but was affected by some factors. The customs system failure at the Ganqimaodu port led to a significant decline in customs clearance [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to positive downstream demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries. At ports, the market sentiment was good, but the transaction was deadlocked. The imported coal market was strong, and the price advantage was obvious [8]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategy was provided [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a bullish/ bearish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, same as above [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure in the short term due to weak demand, negative feedback in the industrial chain, and macro - environment factors. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal have support at previous lows, and silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have relatively stable demand and supply situations. External factors such as trade frictions and tariff policies need continuous attention [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. During the long holiday, terminal demand decreased significantly month - on - month and remained weak year - on - year. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly. The recovery of post - holiday demand needs further observation. With the decline of steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain keeps fermenting. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export in September remained high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of bilateral games and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly and reached a new high this year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained resilient at a high level. After the National Day, steel mills have a certain restocking demand, but the pressure of future production cuts is increasing. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is strengthening, and the market sentiment has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade [3] Coke - The coke price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level is average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre - holiday restocking, downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders is general. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction turnover decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decrease in output. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The futures price has a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The demand side, with high - level iron - making water production. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: - **Three-star ratings**: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **One-star ratings**: Coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a bias towards long/short with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. - **One-star with one white-star rating**: Ferrosilicon, indicating a certain long/short tendency but relatively balanced short-term trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand during the peak season, the resurgence of the US tariff - adding issue, and weak domestic demand. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are supported by high - level pig iron production, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by high pig iron production and external trade frictions [2][3][4][6][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs **Steel** - The steel trading floor showed a weak oscillation today. During the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventories accumulated substantially. Pig iron production remained high, and downstream carrying capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain continued to ferment. Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports in September remained high. The trading floor was under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the game between the two countries and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. **Iron Ore** - The iron ore trading floor rose today, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, global shipments decreased环比 but were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded significantly. On the demand side, pig iron production was highly resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs after the National Day, but the pressure for future production cuts was increasing. Considering the low direct exports to the US and the upcoming important domestic meeting in October, the emotional impact was within expectations. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level [3]. **Coke** - The coke price oscillated upward today. The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profits were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased slightly. After pre - holiday replenishment, downstream enterprises were mainly consuming inventories, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, and high - level pig iron production provided support. The coke trading floor had a slight premium, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [4]. **Coking Coal** - The coking coal price oscillated upward today. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and transaction prices remained stable. Terminal inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly环比, and production - end inventories increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines voluntarily reduced production efficiency, leading to a decline in production. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, high - level pig iron production provided support. The coking coal trading floor had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [6]. **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, inventories decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly环比, and spot ores were boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. **Ferrosilicon** - The ferrosilicon price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly环比, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.本周，五大钢材品种供应 863.31 万吨，周环比降 3.76 万吨，降幅为 0.4%；总库存 1600.72 万吨，周环比增 127.86 万吨，增幅 8.7%；周消费量为 751.43 万吨，其中建材 消费环比降 32.8%，板材消费环比降 7.8%。 2.工信部最新数据显示，2025 年前八个月，我国规模以上工业中小企业增加值同比增 长 7.6%，增速比大型企业高 3.3 个百分点。8 月份，中小企业出口指数为 51.9%，连续 17 个月处于扩张区间。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3240 元（+10），北京地区 3170（+10），上海地区热卷 3350 元（+20），天津地区热卷 3290 元（+1 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the cycle sector rising strongly, but there was also a phenomenon of rising and then falling. The bond market also had a good start, and the futures of various bond varieties warmed up. Different commodity futures showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed according to the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and external factors of each variety [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the technology main line remaining active. It is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of around 6800 on MO2511 on dips to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the long - holiday, the bond market had a positive start. The 10 - year Treasury bond has investment value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The T2512 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low levels, and after the volatility of options peaks, out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices. For silver, pay attention to whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated. In the non - delivery months of October - November, the upward trend may ease, and long positions should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market may gradually trade on the peak - season expectation, and it is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [2]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The steel price remained stable during the holiday. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread when it is high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbance increased during the holiday, and the iron ore is expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 760 - 830, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the holiday, the coal price in the production area was weak. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1080 - 1240, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage problem continues, and long positions should be held. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market supply is sufficient, and the main contract runs in the range of 2850 - 3050. The macro - economy boosts the aluminum price, and the main contract reference range is 20700 - 21300. The price of waste aluminum is firm, and the main contract reference range of aluminum alloy is 20200 - 20800 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory accumulation in London zinc. The main contract reference range is 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: The macro - economy boosts the price, and the main contract reference range is 120000 - 126000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates and strengthens slightly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200. The stainless - steel price fluctuates and weakens, and the main contract reference range is also 12600 - 13200 [2]. Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The easing of the Middle East situation reduces the geopolitical risk premium, and the short - term loose supply - demand situation suppresses the oil price, which is expected to be weak [2]. - **Urea**: The large inventory accumulation suppresses the price. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, and the short - term support level is 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton. For options, after the implied volatility rises, reduce the position when the price is high [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil - price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the November contract and look for opportunities to short on the rebound, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves but is still weak in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the support at around 4500, and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. The processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and it is recommended to increase the position at low levels, but the driving force is limited [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectation weakens in the fourth quarter, and the bottle - chip is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation channel. The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trading was light during the holiday, and the inventory accumulated. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **PVC**: The spot - purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is loose, and the price - driving force is limited. The 2603 contract is expected to fluctuate with styrene and the oil price in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short on the rebound of the November contract and increase the position when the EB - BZ spread is low [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the holiday, the natural - rubber price rebounded, driving the BR price up. It is recommended to go long on NR2512 and short on BR2512 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The post - holiday trading volume increased, and the basis strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2]. - **PP**: The PDH profit was greatly repaired, and the trading improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthened, and the trading was okay. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price rebounded steadily, and the domestic price is under supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 2900 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Pig**: The breeding side increased the slaughter, and the supply pressure was released. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Corn**: The supply increased gradually, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Edible Oils**: The domestic edible - oil price on the continuous contract rose after the holiday. The main contract of palm oil may continue to rise to 9700 in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually on the market, and the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **Egg**: The post - holiday demand weakened, and the price is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract when the price is low and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage opportunity [2]. - **Apple**: The price of high - quality apples is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is not high. The main contract runs around 8500 [2]. - **Jujube**: As the picking time approaches, the long - short game intensifies. The price is bearish in the medium - long term [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to be weak after the holiday. It is recommended to short on the rebound [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the post - holiday price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. - **Rubber**: The raw - material price in Thailand is strong, and the rubber price rose after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The output continues to increase, and the price is under pressure and fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - **Polysilicon**: There may be new progress in the supply - side contraction, and the price rose at the end of the session. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with strong support at 50,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are continuous supply - side news, and the fundamentals maintain a tight balance. The main - contract price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].