1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current supply is relatively balanced with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and the overall supply will gradually decline in November. The demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November due to the dry - season and quota production, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that the short - term market will remain range - bound, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [6]. - For polysilicon, the current supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations, and it is expected to remain in high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract rebounded slightly, closing at 8920 yuan/ton on October 24 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's output increased due to newly ignited silicon furnaces, while the start - up in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little. Yunnan had a small reduction in production under high - cost pressure, and the start - up rate is expected to decline further in November. Sichuan's start - up decreased gradually during the dry season. Overall, the output increased slightly this month and is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance will resume next week. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, with primary aluminum alloy running stably and recycled aluminum alloy restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous month and an 8% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 559000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 52305 yuan/ton on October 24 [7]. - **Supply**: Three enterprises resumed production and increased output in October, and the production is expected to increase slightly this month. According to the fourth - quarter production plans of each enterprise, some production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be gradually shut down for maintenance during the dry season in November, and the production will gradually decline from November to December [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and component and cell manufacturers have a weak willingness to purchase. Downstream purchasing enterprises are mainly waiting and watching, and no actual transactions have been made. A new round of transactions is expected to be carried out in batches next week. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a 28% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the purchasing pace of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, and 421 oxygen - passed was 9100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [10]. - **Industrial Silicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [14]. - **Polysilicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, P - type dense material was 33000 yuan/ton, and P - type cauliflower material was 30500 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [18]. - **Polysilicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17000 yuan/ton, and the premium over P - type cauliflower material was 19500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [22]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of October 24, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1140 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang silicon coal was 1700 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica stone was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [26]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shandong port Saudi petroleum coke was 1555 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from last week. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [30]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, Yunnan charcoal was 2450 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes were 12750 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [34]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 24, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.34, 1.34, 1.365, and 1.69 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. Due to weak terminal demand, second - tier and tail enterprises actively lowered prices [37]. - **Batteries**: As of October 24, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.315, 0.315, 0.285, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with decreases of 0.003, 0.003, 0.002, and 0 yuan/watt respectively from last week. Overseas market demand has declined, and export order support has weakened [41]. - **Components**: As of October 24, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and cost pressure has increased [45]. Other Related Products - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up was stable, and the price remained stable [49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20800 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last week. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable start - up, the primary aluminum sector was relatively stable, and recycled aluminum alloy was restricted by scrap aluminum supply [53].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing a slight decrease in inventory levels, with stable prices and cautious market activity observed in recent transactions. Group 1: Market Inventory and Prices - As of October 24, the total social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi is 48,612 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from the previous trading day and a reduction of 411 tons from the previous week [1] - Last week, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.03%, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged [1] - The price of ADC12 in major domestic regions remained stable week-on-week, with cautious market transactions and similar import prices [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The continuous reduction of waste aluminum raw material inventory and limited import supply may restrict upstream supply due to high operating rates, providing strong support on the cost side [2] - Although social inventory is increasing, the rate of accumulation has slowed significantly, and downstream consumption is nearing the end of the peak season, with positive growth in new energy consumption but a decreasing growth rate [2] - The current spot price for ADC12 is quoted at 20,700 yuan, with tight waste aluminum supply and expectations of tax policy adjustments increasing enterprise costs [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of casting aluminum alloy is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end logic of casting aluminum alloy still exists, and the price is supported. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bullish. It is advisable to look for buying points on dips [6] - The combined inventory of cast aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses has increased, and the inventory pressure remains. However, with the arrival of the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry, car sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The weekly price of casting aluminum alloy futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a high of 20,775 yuan/ton during the week. The scrap aluminum price fluctuated strongly, and the prices of raw and processed aluminum increased simultaneously. Some enterprises faced prominent cost pressure due to low raw material inventories. The demand showed certain resilience, and leading enterprises maintained a good production rhythm [6] 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf contracts on October 24, 2025, the futures price difference was 90 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 14.48 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 65.89 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 80 yuan/ton [12] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The reference price of casting aluminum alloy spot was 20,700 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost was 20,916.4 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production was at a high level, and social inventory was decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum was also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [16][18] 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 was slightly raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum fluctuated. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum decreased, while the monthly operating rate increased. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output proportion were also provided [29][39][44] - The cost of ADC12 was mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost was above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy increased, and the social inventory was at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy was temporarily closed [45][50][55] 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The fuel - powered vehicle industry entered the year - end sales rush stage, which would drive die - casting consumption. In the second week of October (October 13 - 19), domestic passenger car retail sales were 1.128 million, a 6% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in October last year and a 7% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 18.136 million, a year - on - year increase of 8% [6][64]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in high-end aluminum alloy production, benefiting from growth in sectors such as ultra-high voltage, 3C electronics, and automotive lightweighting [5][7]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 72.84 billion RMB in 2023 to 82.22 billion RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.08% [6][57]. - The company aims to expand its international presence through a project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge globally [56][57]. Summary by Sections 1. High-End Aluminum Alloy Leader - The company has established a diverse product portfolio, including aluminum profiles for 3C electronics, automotive lightweighting, and aluminum rods and cables, which are widely used across various industries [7][20]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 35.78% of the shares, ensuring strong backing from its parent company [18][20]. - Revenue has steadily increased from 594.3 billion RMB in 2021 to an expected 809.4 billion RMB in 2024, driven by robust downstream demand [22][57]. 2. Growth in High-End Aluminum Alloy Business - The aluminum rod and cable segment is expected to benefit from ongoing investments in ultra-high voltage projects, with a total investment of 380 billion RMB planned during the 14th Five-Year Plan [31][32]. - The 3C aluminum profile segment is experiencing accelerated demand due to the adoption of aluminum frames in the iPhone 17 series, which is expected to boost sales [40][41]. - The automotive lightweighting segment is also growing, with the company focusing on components such as crash beams and battery packs, entering partnerships with leading automotive brands [46][43]. 3. Raw Material Layout - The company is actively expanding its recycled aluminum operations, achieving a total recycling volume of 637,500 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.37% [55][54]. - The Saudi project aims to establish a comprehensive aluminum industry chain, enhancing the company's international market reach and competitiveness [56][57]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 7.5 billion RMB in 2025, 11.4 billion RMB in 2026, and 13.0 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 14, and 12 [6][57]. - The report compares the company with peers like Lichung Group and Yongmaotai, which have higher average P/E ratios, indicating potential for growth in the company's valuation [59].

Core Insights - The conference focused on the innovation and development of the aluminum industry chain, emphasizing the role of casting aluminum alloys in achieving high-quality growth [1] Industry Overview - The aluminum casting alloy industry in China is facing a "three high" demand: high performance, high efficiency, and high environmental standards, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, 5G communication, and rail transportation [1] - In 2024, China's aluminum casting alloy production is expected to reach 10.05 million tons, with recycled aluminum accounting for over 70%, highlighting the industry's shift towards green recycling and material upgrades [1] Material Innovation - Key advancements in material innovation include the development of high-strength and high-toughness die-casting aluminum alloys, high thermal conductivity die-casting aluminum alloys, anodizable die-casting aluminum alloys, and ultra-high-strength casting aluminum alloys [1] - The ZL-HT3 high thermal conductivity alloy, developed by China Aluminum, has a thermal conductivity of 173 W/m·K, an 8% improvement over conventional alloys, making it suitable for applications like 5G base station heat dissipation [1] Process Upgrades - Advanced processes such as integrated vacuum die-casting, semi-solid forming, low-pressure casting, and extrusion casting are analyzed for their technical advantages and application scenarios [2] - Integrated die-casting technology can reduce the production time of traditional vehicle body components from 1-2 hours to 2-3 minutes, significantly enhancing production efficiency and integration, which is crucial for lightweighting in new energy vehicles [2] Collaborative Innovation - The synergy between process and material innovation is identified as the core driver for high-quality development in the industry [2] - Digital simulation, intelligent transformation, and remote monitoring are methods that enable companies to transition from "experience-based casting" to "precise intelligent manufacturing," improving product consistency, qualification rates, and energy utilization efficiency [2] Green Transition - The accelerated transition of the aluminum industry towards green and low-carbon practices has brought attention to the efficient use of recycled aluminum and iron impurity control technologies [2] - New iron removal technologies and alloy design concepts are gradually addressing the quality bottlenecks of recycled aluminum, supporting the establishment of a comprehensive green recycling system from bauxite to alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and recycled aluminum [2]

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：宏观扰动加剧，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性偏弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Special report ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with production figures showing a notable increase in recent years, indicating a positive market outlook for the sector [1]. Industry Summary - As of August 2025, China's aluminum alloy production reached 1.64 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the total aluminum alloy production in China amounted to 12.324 million tons, with a cumulative growth rate of 15.3% [1]. - The data indicates a robust upward trend in production, suggesting strong demand and potential investment opportunities within the industry [1]. Company Summary - Key listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), and Ming Tai Aluminum (601677), among others [1]. - These companies are positioned to benefit from the growing market dynamics and increasing production capacities in the aluminum alloy industry [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper mine supply, and copper prices are expected to benefit from potential Fed rate cuts. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support copper prices, with the short - term price rising due to mine disturbances. The main focus is on the 81000 - 81500 support level [2]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" pattern, with short - term prices expected to oscillate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to show high - level oscillations after a decline, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices oscillate with aluminum prices. Cost rigidity and pre - holiday stocking support prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation restrict price increases. Short - term ADC12 prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range [7]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - Supply is tight, providing support for tin prices, which continue to oscillate at high levels in the 265000 - 285000 range. The focus is on the supply recovery situation in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - environment is stable, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The main reference range is 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range at 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. Strong peak - season demand supports prices, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and sort out, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; alumina prices in various regions show different degrees of decline [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; various regions' price differences show different degrees of decline [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the futures import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 375 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average is 856 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors influencing the market. Fed Chairman Powell indicated risks of inflation and employment, reiterating that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices, without suggesting support for rate cuts next month. He also warned about high valuations in the US stock market, signaling potential risks [1] - Domestic monetary policy remains supportive, with the central bank's governor stating no adjustments to short-term policies are planned. The current stance is to implement moderately loose monetary policy [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in LME copper by 400 tons to 144,975 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 91 tons to 288,837 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 2,166 tons to 27,727 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,445 tons [1] - Demand from downstream sectors is weak due to high copper prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, with concerns over pre-holiday inventory replenishment [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $15,340 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.47% to 121,740 yuan per ton. LME inventory rose by 1,554 tons to 230,454 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons to 25,464 tons [2] - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and stainless steel weekly inventory showed a significant decrease. Nickel iron prices strengthened, providing cost support, although supply increased [2] - In the new energy sector, demand for ternary materials slightly weakened in September, but cobalt policies may lead to tight MHP supply. The overall nickel price may see slight upward movement due to macroeconomic factors and rising nickel iron and MHP prices, although inventory remains a significant resistance [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2601 settling at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2510 at 20,670 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [3] - Aluminum alloy prices remained strong, with AD2511 at 20,305 yuan per ton, up 0.22%. SMM alumina prices fell to 3,032 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot prices showed a slight decrease [3] - The recovery of alumina plants has increased social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production, leading to a decline in ore inventory. Overall, alumina remains bearish but may have reached a bottom [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak trend, with the main contract at 8,925 yuan per ton, down 2.3%. The reference price for industrial silicon was 9,604 yuan per ton, up 121 yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.74%. The N-type polysilicon price rose to 52,500 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in the minimum delivery price [4] - The energy consumption policy draft for polysilicon has slightly raised standards, but the overall impact remains moderate. There is a strong sentiment for production and export in the polysilicon market, leading to a divergence between policy and actual supply-demand dynamics [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2511 contract fell by 0.16% to 73,660 yuan per ton. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade was at 71,600 yuan per ton [5] - Import data showed that in August 2025, China imported 61.92 million tons of lithium spodumene, a decrease of 17.5% month-on-month. Carbonate imports increased by 57.8% month-on-month and 23.5% year-on-year [5] - Weekly production increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with significant contributions from various lithium extraction methods. Inventory levels decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [5]