铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：消费淡季持续，价格震荡偏弱 强弱分析：偏弱 精废价差回升 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 破碎生铝/A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00有望延续下滑趋势 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant milestone for China's futures market and the recycling metal industry, enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development in the aluminum sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch Details - The first trading of casting aluminum alloy futures occurred at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with seven contracts listed at a benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - On the first trading day, a total of 57,300 contracts were traded, amounting to 11.011 billion yuan, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts [1]. - The main contract, AD2511, closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, reflecting a 4.49% increase [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a key development in integrating finance with the non-ferrous metal industry, enhancing China's international influence in aluminum production [1][2]. - The launch is expected to provide companies with effective risk management tools, addressing previous shortcomings in hedging against price fluctuations in aluminum alloys [2]. - The listing has garnered positive responses from industry players, with several well-known companies actively participating in the trading [2]. Group 3: Role of Intermediaries - Futures companies are positioned to offer comprehensive services, from standardized contracts to customized solutions for risk management in the aluminum industry [3]. - The ability to design personalized products based on standardized contracts will enhance the precision of risk management services for enterprises [3]. - Futures companies can facilitate industry participation in the futures market through simple methods, leveraging their risk management subsidiaries [3].

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 有色金属衍生品日报 第一部分 市场研判 铜 【市场回顾】 1.期货：今日沪铜 2507 合约收于 78880 元/吨，涨幅 0.27%，沪铜指数增仓 11993 手至 57.77 万手。 2.现货：铜价居高，下游采购受抑，上海现货报升水 85 元/吨，持平上一交易日。广东虽库 存 4 连降，但受制于铜价走高，持货商难大幅挺价，报升水 60 元/吨，上涨 5 元/吨。天津 报贴水 180 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 中国中矿资源集团表示，由于全球冶炼产能迅速扩张导致铜精矿短缺，其位于纳米比亚 的 Tsumeb 工厂已暂停铜冶炼作业。该冶炼厂每年可处理 24 万吨铜精矿。 2. Mysteel 调研国内 61 家精铜杆生产企业，总涉及产能 1584 万吨(含 2025 年新增产能)， 2025 年 5 月国内精铜杆产量为 84.08 万吨，环比减少 4.78%，同比增加 23.43%。据 Mvsteel 调研国内 74 家再生铜杆样本企业，总涉及产能 819 万吨，2025 年 5 月国内再生铜杆样本产 量为 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanhua Capital completed its first over-the-counter options transaction for casting aluminum alloy, showcasing its rapid response capability and innovative advantages in industrial financial services [1] - Shuaiyichi New Materials Group Co., Ltd. focuses on the research, production, and sales of green, low-carbon recycled aluminum alloy materials, with a maximum annual production capacity of 1 million tons and over 400,000 tons of recycled aluminum utilized annually [2] - Nanhua Futures (603093) is a leading comprehensive service provider of derivatives in China, committed to helping enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency through the use of on-exchange and off-exchange derivative tools [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - China is a major player in the global aluminum industry, with an estimated casting aluminum alloy (recycled) production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and a production volume of about 6.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 26.2% of global output [3] - The industry faces structural challenges, including tight upstream scrap aluminum supply increasing costs and intense price competition in downstream products compressing profit margins, alongside demand contraction and high inventory levels [3] - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures provides industry chain enterprises with more precise risk management tools, aiding in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in the industry, providing a tool for companies to hedge costs and manage risks associated with aluminum procurement and production [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The casting aluminum alloy industry chain includes scrap aluminum, casting aluminum alloys, die-cast parts, and end-use applications, with the transportation sector, particularly automotive, being the largest consumer [1]. - The carbon emissions from producing casting aluminum alloys are significantly lower, achieving only 2% of the emissions compared to the electrolytic aluminum production process, while also conserving resources such as 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water per ton produced [1]. Group 2: Regional Significance - Chongqing plays a crucial role in the casting aluminum alloy industry due to its concentration of high-end manufacturing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with local automakers like Changan and Seres having substantial aluminum needs [2]. - The annual aluminum alloy demand in Chongqing has surpassed 340,000 tons, supported by the presence of large-scale casting manufacturers with an annual production capacity exceeding 700,000 tons [2]. - The region's logistics infrastructure, including warehouses like Guoyuan Port, meets the storage capacity requirements for the futures market, facilitating regional delivery and circulation [2]. Group 3: Market Development Initiatives - The Chongqing municipal government has actively supported the development of the futures market, encouraging local companies to engage with futures trading and enhancing their risk management capabilities [3]. - CITIC Futures, a national futures brokerage based in Chongqing, aims to provide comprehensive financial services to local businesses, including customized reports, risk management training, and one-stop delivery services [4]. - The company plans to leverage its expertise to enhance the competitiveness of Chongqing's casting aluminum alloy industry and contribute to the sustainable development of the regional economy [4].

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：淡季特征显著，偏弱运行 强弱分析：偏弱 数据来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Wind、SHMET、国泰君安期货研究所 第 3 页 精废价差回升 ADC12-A00有望延续下滑趋势 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差（右轴） 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝含税价 佛山A00 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-1 ...

集团首席执行官张博士则围绕大会主题，深入浅出地解读了中国建筑铝型材市场发展现状与未来五年演进路线，以及坚美铝业集团改革战略规划。通过 深度剖析坚美内部管理困局与内外危机，提出坚美将聚焦六大核心变革为手术刀，以破釜沉舟的决心进行深度重塑。以资源整合为引擎，从产品、渠道、供 应链、数字化建设、材料生产、文化六大维度聚合赋能，打造行业新生态，重构坚美的核心竞争力。 随后，曹湛斌上台发表行业市场宏观分析与对策。面对国内外经济环境严峻复杂、房地产行业震荡及市场内卷加剧的形势，曹湛斌号召全员要树立危机 意识，做好打持久战的准备。他还强调"世界百年未有之大变局，中国经济形势的变化，对每个企业，每家公司，每个人都是一次大考验。危机关头勇敢者 胜，智慧者胜。" 近年来，铝合金门窗行业正经历着深刻变革，从技术迭代到市场需求升级，每一步都牵动着行业发展的脉搏。在会议的收官时刻，坚美集团对在2023到 2024年度表现卓越的经销商进行了表彰，并举行了颁奖仪式。经销商们纷纷表示，此次大会为集团与经销商之间搭建了一座沟通与合作的桥梁，在"改革转 型聚合赋能价值服务共赢未来"的主题引领下，厂商达成了深度共识，未来将携手共赴改革发展新征程。 ...

短期看，5月铝合金锭市场呈现典型的季节性疲软特征，行业整体面临需求收缩与库存高企的双重压 力。受终端消费持续走低影响，下游采购意愿明显下降，导致企业订单量环比下降15%~20%，成品库 存周转天数较4月增加3~5天。在市场竞争愈发激烈的背景下，为维持客户关系和加速资金周转，多数 企业采取降价促销策略，导致铝合金锭的价格走势与基本面出现背离——电解铝价格中枢上移200元/ 吨，但ADC12等主流牌号铝合金锭的价格反而下跌200~300元/吨，形成了"跟跌不跟涨"的现象。行业调 研情况显示，当前约30%的铸造铝合金企业已陷入亏损状态，特别是中小型厂商受制于原料采购困难及 订单不足等问题，浙江、广东等主要产区已陆续出现减产情况。 调研团队认为，即将上市的铸造铝合金期货，将为市场带来新的定价机制和风险管理工具，或许能改变 当前铝合金现货市场定价较为混乱的局面。业内人士普遍认为，铸造铝合金期货上市能够提升价格发现 效率，并为产业企业提供有效的套期保值工具。 样本企业运营情况 原料供应紧张。废铝供应呈现"结构性紧张"特征。调研结果显示，浙江、江西地区样本企业主要依赖国 内废铝资源（占比85%以上）进行生产，进口废铝仅作为 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月18日 ◆ 供应端，废铝供需双弱，合金开工率呈现下移趋势。现今废铝供应季节性紧缺， 回收商持货量有限，流通货源偏紧下持货商惜售，价格偏坚挺维稳运行，精废 价差处于相对偏低位置。废铝挤压合金厂利润，目前迈入亏损阶段，5月预计铸 造铝合金厂趋势性下调开工率，对废铝需求收缩，即原料端处于供需双弱阶段。 ◆ 消费淡季程度逐步走深，下游刚需少量采购。下游订单在二季度存在边际走弱 特征，补库相对谨慎，下游压铸企业采购积极性欠佳，以刚需为主。 ◆ 消费淡季压力下，价格上方承压显著，中期维度来看或仍以偏弱运行为主。周 内铝价受到关税缓和情绪乐观的影响而大幅上抬，然而需求端的疲弱限制 ADC12跟涨幅度。回归基本面，供需双弱逻辑或随着淡季程度更深而演变为负 反馈逻辑，价格回落。同时，ADC12-A00基差或继续收敛，关注跨品种套利机 会。 | 总结：废铝和ADC12价格小幅上调 2025/04 月环比 | | | | | 2025/04 | 月环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The event on May 10 marked the ninth "China Brand Day," organized by the Foshan Market Supervision Administration, aimed at enhancing the quality and brand leadership of Foshan's manufacturing industry [1] - Four brand lists were released, including the "Bay Area Certification" brand list, "Top 50 Craftsmanship Quality Brand Enterprises in Foshan," "Top 10 Intellectual Property Innovation Brand Enterprises in Foshan," and "Top 10 Brand Figures in Foshan," with 99 enterprises and 10 outstanding entrepreneurs recognized [1] - Foshan has cultivated 684 "Leading Enterprises Standards," ranking first in the country for five consecutive years, promoting quality upgrades and brand efficiency through standard enhancements [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Foshan evaluated 98 enterprises across various sectors, establishing 138 Foshan standards and approving 434 Foshan standard products, indicating a growing standard brand matrix [2] - The mayor of Foshan emphasized the need to strengthen the "Have a Home, Have Foshan Manufacturing" brand, aligning with the goal of creating a "New Foshan" [2] - Foshan aims to enhance product quality through advanced quality management tools and the implementation of a Chief Quality Officer system, encouraging the transformation of new technologies into advanced standards [2] Group 3 - The Deputy Director of the Guangdong Market Supervision Administration expressed hopes for collaboration among government, industry associations, and enterprises to empower quality and brand development [3] - Foshan is encouraged to continue implementing the quality strong country strategy and support enterprises in innovation to enhance product variety and quality [3] - The focus is on creating a favorable environment for brand development, promoting high-quality growth, and achieving modernization in China [3]