证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 港股市场速览 优于大市 大盘风格传统行业估值拉升 股价表现：大盘风格传统行业带动市场显著上涨 本周，恒生指数+2.4%，恒生综指+1.8%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+2.2%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.3%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-1.2%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生高股息（+4.2%）；下跌的主要有恒 生生物科技（-2.5%）。 国信海外选股策略分化。上涨的主要有红利贵族 50（+2.8%）；下跌的主要 有自由现金流 30（-1.7%）。 16 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+8.7%）、综合 （+6.3%）、建材（+6.3%）、房地产（+5.8%）、非银行金融（+5.8%）；下 跌的主要有：国防军工（-4.5%）、电力设备及新能源（-3.4%）、医药（-2.8%）、 钢铁（-2.3%）、汽车（-2.2%）。 估值水平：红利估值拉升，多数概念下降 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+1.8%至 12.0x； 恒生综指估值+1.2%至 12.0x。 主要概念指数估值普遍下降。上升幅度较大的是恒生高股息（+4.2 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - This week (0126 - 0130), there were significant fluctuations in major asset classes. The short - term yields of US stocks, precious metals, and US bonds were significantly adjusted, and the US dollar was slightly repaired. The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2026 may remain restrained. The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets such as US bonds and gold will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [1]. - Overseas uncertainties have led to significant fluctuations in domestic risk - based assets. The report previously suggested that the convertible bond strategy should prioritize "controlling drawdowns" and also pay attention to high - probability pro - cyclical targets. Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [1]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the equity market as a whole declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 4117.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62% to close at 14205.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09% to close at 3346.36 points. The CSI 300 rose 0.08% to close at 4706.34 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 2615.81 billion yuan to 30365.33 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.43% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries closed up, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, rising 7.95%, 5.83%, 3.68%, 3.37%, and 1.82% respectively. National defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and commercial retail led the losses, with declines of 7.69%, 5.10%, 5.08%, 4.77%, and 4.18% respectively [12]. 1.2. Overall Decline in the Convertible Bond Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries closed up, with 2 industries having a gain of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and building decoration led the gains, rising 5.74%, 2.73%, 1.62%, 1.22%, and 0.68% respectively. Household appliances, computers, power equipment, commercial retail, and national defense and military industry led the losses, falling 10.21%, 7.52%, 6.87%, 5.84%, and 5.56% respectively [13]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 902.09 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 30.87 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 3.31%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Zhekuang Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Outong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, and Yunji Convertible Bond. The average trading volume of the top ten convertible bonds reached 93.23 billion yuan, with the first - ranked trading volume reaching 179.39 billion yuan [13]. - Approximately 24.22% of the individual convertible bonds rose, about 6.51% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 13.28% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain of more than 2% [13]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 42.75%, a decrease of 12.58 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the price range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 yuan price range having the largest widening amplitude of 22.90 pcts. In terms of parity ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the parity range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the parity range above 120 yuan having the largest widening amplitude of 3.44 pcts [18]. - In terms of the premium rate changes of each industry, the conversion premium rates of 19 industries widened this week, with 6 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2 pcts. Household appliances, media, food and beverages, commercial retail, and automobiles led the widening amplitude, reaching 7.00 pcts, 4.59 pcts, 3.35 pcts, 2.81 pcts, and 2.78 pcts respectively. Social services, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 8.83 pcts, 5.29 pcts, 3.41 pcts, 3.04 pcts, and 2.62 pcts respectively [26]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 13 industries increased this week, with 10 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the widening amplitude, reaching 6.37%, 4.42%, 4.41%, 4.04%, and 3.91% respectively. Household appliances, commercial retail, building decoration, media, and beauty care led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 3.90%, 2.46%, 2.25%, 1.91%, and 1.70% respectively [29]. 1.3. Comparison of Stock - Bond Market Sentiments - From January 26th to January 30th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were both negative, and the weekly gain of convertible bonds was greater than that of underlying stocks. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 3.31% week - on - week and was at the 84.80% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market increased by 82.04% week - on - week and was at the 97.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of the underlying stocks increased while that of the convertible bonds decreased, and the increase in the trading volume of the underlying stocks was greater and at a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks, about 13.04% of the convertible bonds and about 23.48% of the underlying stocks closed up this week; about 53.33% of the convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than the underlying stocks. In summary, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [32]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [37]. - Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [38]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [39]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]

Group 1 - The underlying logic of the non-ferrous metals, liquor, and large refining sectors is interconnected, driven by the anticipated liquidity from the Federal Reserve's QE in 2026, which is expected to enhance the super cycle of commodities [1][10] - The current investment in the large refining sector is likened to the investment in non-ferrous metals last year, with expectations of a significant price increase in oil and chemical products by 2026, following the patterns observed in the non-ferrous sector [2][14] - The "anti-involution" trend in China is contributing to the upward momentum in the large refining sector, as capital expenditure is being restrained, leading to a significant slowdown in new capacity additions and a clearing of inventories, which supports future price elasticity [3][16] Group 2 - The large refining sector is still at a low valuation level, with significant room for valuation recovery compared to the non-ferrous sector, which has already experienced a systematic valuation increase [4][21] - Recent inflows from public funds, foreign investments, and ETFs into the large refining sector indicate a timely opportunity for investment, as the sector is positioned for a major upward trend [6][27] - The upcoming Federal Reserve QE in 2026 is expected to create a favorable environment for the large refining sector, alongside the anticipated recovery in consumer demand and high-end manufacturing sectors [7][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions and cold weather have led to supply contraction expectations, driving oil prices up significantly. The U.S. oil production was impacted by a winter storm, resulting in a loss of up to 2 million barrels per day, approximately 15% of total U.S. production. Additionally, the report notes that geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Iran and the Middle East, will continue to influence short-term oil price fluctuations [8][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a 6.9% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.1% [16][19]. 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that the oil extraction sub-sector had the highest weekly increase of 12.3%, while the oil product sales and storage sub-sector had the smallest increase of 0.7% [19]. 3. Company Performance - Notable performers in the oil and petrochemical sector included PetroChina, which is recommended for its stable performance and high dividends, and CNOOC, which is highlighted for its low production costs and growth potential [14]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses OPEC+'s decision to maintain stable oil production levels amidst geopolitical risks and supply concerns. It also mentions the EU's approval to stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, which could impact global energy dynamics [24][25]. 5. Oil and Gas Prices - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, a 7.30% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel. The report also notes a decrease in U.S. oil production and refinery processing rates [12][13]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment lines: focusing on stable industry leaders like PetroChina and Sinopec, considering CNOOC for its strong earnings potential, and looking at growth companies like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum due to domestic encouragement for oil and gas production [14].

Market Overview - The A-share market started the year positively with all major indices showing gains, leading to a significant increase in market activity and a total market capitalization surge of over 6 trillion yuan in January [1][3] - As of January 30, the three major indices, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, recorded monthly increases of 3.76%, 5.03%, and 4.47% respectively, indicating a robust upward trend [3] Market Capitalization - By the end of January, the total market capitalization of A-shares reached 125.21 trillion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 6.3 trillion yuan compared to the end of the previous year, showcasing a significant recovery in market confidence and increased capital activity [3] Sector Performance - In January, a clear structural market trend emerged, with most of the 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification showing gains. The metals sector led with a monthly increase of 22.59%, followed by media and oil & petrochemicals with increases of 17.94% and 16.31% respectively [3] - Other sectors such as construction materials, basic chemicals, and electronics also saw gains exceeding 10%, demonstrating strong upward momentum [3] Analyst Insights - Multiple brokerages have expressed optimism regarding the continuation of the spring market rally. For instance,招商证券 highlighted the strong performance of resource prices and TMT sectors driven by AI trends, suggesting a focus on cyclical and technology sectors for February [4] -国信证券 noted that the current market liquidity remains relatively abundant, and despite significant net redemptions in broad-based ETFs, there is still active subscription in sector and thematic ETFs, indicating ongoing investor interest [4] -光大证券 also anticipates further positive developments in both policy and fundamentals, recommending a focus on growth sectors such as humanoid robots, AI, gaming, and film during the upcoming spring market [5]

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 报告摘要 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 相关报告 本周 A 股市场整体呈现高位震荡回落格局，成交维持高位但赚钱效应明显走弱。从 指数表现看，市场结构分化显著：主要宽基指数多数下跌，其中上证指数本周下跌 0.44%，深证成指下跌 1.62%，创业板指基本持平（-0.09%）。从成交情况看，市 场交投依然活跃。本周万得全 A 日均成交额约 3.06 万亿元，较上周提升约 9.44%， 显示尽管指数承压，但增量资金并未明显撤离，市场流动性基础仍然稳固。从赚钱效 应看，本周市场情绪明显降温。全周日均上涨家数占比仅为 34.80%，较上周大幅回 落，个股层面呈现"跌多涨少"的特征。 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 本周 A 股大宗商品相关板块表现强势，成为周度涨幅靠前的核心主线，但内部分化 与波动显著放大。从申万一级行业周度涨幅来看，石油石化（7 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a volatile trend this week, with an average daily trading volume of 3.06 trillion, a week-on-week increase of 9.44%[6] - Major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI A100 recorded positive returns, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices experienced declines[6] - Value and large-cap growth sectors performed relatively well, whereas small-cap indices such as CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 saw significant drops[6] - Cyclical sectors like oil, telecommunications, coal, and non-ferrous metals outperformed, while growth sectors including computers and new energy faced larger declines[6] Group 2: Market Insights and Expectations - The A-share market displayed structural characteristics and volatility, with gold stocks experiencing a collective pullback due to fluctuations in international gold prices[6] - AI and technology growth stocks continued to attract capital, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, indicating a favorable investment logic in growth sectors[6] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain structurally volatile, with potential pullback pressures on previously strong cyclical sectors lacking sustained catalysts[7] - The upcoming period post-Spring Festival until the Two Sessions is anticipated to be a more certain upward phase for the market, suggesting strategic positioning opportunities[7] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market performed strongly this week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.71%[8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a slight decline of 1.38%, indicating volatility within the tech sector[8] - Leading sectors included energy (7.44%), real estate and construction (5.71%), and finance (5.3%), while information technology and healthcare experienced minor declines[8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The Hong Kong market is expected to continue its structural upward trend, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and improving sentiment in the A-share market[9] - Sustained demand for AI is likely to benefit the tech sector in Hong Kong, although investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties[9] - A prudent asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend assets and sectors with both profitability improvement and growth potential[9] - Risks include unexpected tightening of global liquidity and complexities in market dynamics and policy changes[10]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in Q4 2025, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with a decline in the proportion of funds overweighting Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - The total size of actively managed equity public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2025 is 20,356 billion, accounting for 52.2% of the total actively managed equity fund size, down from 52.4% in Q3 2025 [10] - The market value of Hong Kong heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds in Q4 2025 is 3,121 billion, which is a decrease from 3,950 billion in Q3 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, actively managed equity public funds have increased their exposure to cyclical financial sectors while reducing exposure to technology and consumer sectors in Q4 2025 [2][19] - The sectors with increased allocation include non-ferrous metals (6.8%, up 2.3 percentage points), non-bank financials (5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points), and oil and petrochemicals (3.5%, up 2.1 percentage points) [19][26] - The sectors with reduced allocation include consumer discretionary retail (11.0%, down 2.2 percentage points), hardware equipment (3.0%, down 2.0 percentage points), and semiconductors (7.6%, down 2.0 percentage points) [19][26] Group 3 - The concentration of the top ten heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with their combined holding percentage in Q4 2025 being 49.7%, down from 54.0% in Q3 2025 [3][28] - The top three heavy stocks remain consistent with Q3 2025, including Tencent Holdings (holding size of 578 billion, accounting for 18.5%), Alibaba (310 billion, 10.0%), and SMIC (187 billion, 6.0%) [3][28]