Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments released a work plan for the petrochemical industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual increase of over 5% in the industry's added value [1] - The plan emphasizes enhancing high-end supply by focusing on key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment, supporting critical product breakthroughs in electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, high-performance fibers, special rubber, and high-performance membrane materials [1] - The plan promotes quality improvement in supply and demand by organizing product matching activities and establishing long-term stable cooperation between production enterprises and downstream users in traditional sectors like construction, automotive, and shipping [1] Group 2 - The polyester industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a significant slowdown in new capacity additions, as 650,000 tons of new polyester filament capacity was added in the first half of 2025 [2] - Domestic demand is steadily growing, with China's total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and the textile and apparel sector growing by 3.1% [2] - The company is set to launch its integrated caprolactam-nylon project in Qinzhou, which is expected to enhance its performance and strengthen its upstream and downstream supply chain [2] Group 3 - The company's profitability is expected to recover with the advancement of stabilization policies in the petrochemical industry, with projected net profits of 430 million, 650 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company's price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 56, 37, and 29 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 based on the closing price on October 9, 2025 [3] - The company is viewed positively for its future growth potential, receiving an initial "buy" rating [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is facing a complex situation with cost collapses, weak trends, and uncertainties in supply and demand due to factors such as trade policies and seasonal variations [3][4][5]. - There are opportunities in various trading strategies, including short positions, calendar spreads, and cross - commodity spreads for PX, PTA, and MEG [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PX valuation is affected by demand negative feedback, cost support is weak, and the price is declining. The PXN has weakened significantly, and the PX - MX spread has also decreased [16][23][42]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. However, the PX - MX spread has weakened due to the recovery of Asian MX blending oil [30][42]. - The PXN has fallen to 230 (+8) US dollars/ton, and the polyester chain price is weak [80]. Supply and Demand - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with a current operating rate of 87.4% (+0.8%). Next week, the 1 million - ton Wushi Petrochemical plant will be under maintenance, and the operating rate will decline [3][49]. - In September, the PX apparent consumption was 4.04 million tons, and the loss was 377,000 tons [50]. - In August, PX imports rebounded to 880,000 tons, with a significant increase from South Korea. China's imports from Saudi Arabia have remained low [56][58]. - In Japan, some PX plants restarted in September, and South Korea's Hanwha plant has restarted [62][63]. - In September, the PX inventory decreased to 3.92 million tons (+3) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 calendar spread of PTA is in a backwardation situation, and the basis has declined. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [72][78]. - The PXN has fallen, and the polyester chain price is weak [80]. Supply and Demand - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 75%, currently at 74.4% (-2.4%). In October, there is a de - stocking pattern, mainly in the western and southern regions, but the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient [82]. - In September, the PTA output was 6.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. The container freight rate has declined, which is beneficial for exports [83]. - In August, PTA exports were 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [85]. - PTA inventory is at a low level [101]. - The Morgan Qiankun PTA position has turned short again, and the short positions of foreign capital seats have increased to 169,000 (+43,000) lots [105][107]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG price trend is declining, and the basis remains high. MEG's relative valuations against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest levels of the year [118][122]. - The coal - based MEG profit has dropped to 218 yuan/ton (-75), and the naphtha - based MEG profit is - 891 yuan/ton (+15) [125]. Supply and Demand - The MEG operating rate is at a historical high, currently at 75% (+2%). Some plants will be under maintenance next week, and the overall load is expected to decline slightly. The high - point of the overall load in October is expected to have passed [128]. - In August, MEG imports were about 590,000 tons, and they are expected to rebound in September [130]. - Many overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [136][139]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [144].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the expected improvements in product margins [2][154]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in raw material prices, leading to a slight improvement in refining product margins. The domestic refining project price spread increased by 21.59 CNY/ton (+0.91%) to 2404.19 CNY/ton, while the international spread decreased by 6.62 CNY/ton (-0.57%) to 1151.33 CNY/ton [2][3]. - Brent crude oil averaged 65.15 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.91% week-on-week. The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events and OPEC's production plans on oil prices, indicating fluctuations in response to market conditions [2][15]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that Iraq is set to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region, while ongoing conflicts in Ukraine continue to affect energy infrastructure. International oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent and WTI prices at 62.73 USD/barrel and 58.90 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 1.80 USD and 1.98 USD from the previous week [2][15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 6848.00 CNY/ton, 7932.29 CNY/ton, and 5947.21 CNY/ton, respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates that the price decline of petrochemical products has not matched the cost reductions, leading to an expansion in price spreads. Polyethylene prices have shown slight fluctuations, while EVA prices have slightly decreased due to reduced downstream demand [2][53]. - The report also highlights that the price of pure benzene has decreased, with a stable price spread, while styrene prices have dropped, leading to a slight narrowing of the price spread [2][70]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - Polyester raw material prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in profit margins for filament products. The report notes that the market supply has slightly increased due to new installations and the resumption of previously halted operations [2][112]. - The average prices for polyester filament products are reported as POY at 6600.00 CNY/ton, FDY at 6750.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7800.00 CNY/ton, with varying profit margins across these products [2][134]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable weekly increases for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.97%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+2.86%). Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has also shown a positive trend with a 3.16% increase [2][141].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For short - fiber (PF), it is in a short - term volatile market and is expected to be weak in the medium term. The price is driven down by expectations, with increased volatility. Although the current absolute price is low and downstream buying interest is okay, the cost - side price and supply - demand support are both weak. There may be opportunities for recovery if there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations [7][8]. - For bottle chips (PR), it is in a situation of being driven down by expectations and having increased volatility. The fourth - quarter factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% overall. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. If there is a significant short - term over - decline due to tariff expectations, there may be a chance of regression and repair [11][12]. Summary by Directory Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton, and the valuation of the processing fee and the inter - month spread is basically reasonable, while the basis is high [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: After the National Day, the average operating rate of short - fiber decreased to 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple for spinning decreased to 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future and may gradually decline slightly from October to November [7]. - Demand: Downstream orders had a concentrated outbreak before the festival, but the sustainability was average due to the hot weather after the festival. The knitted market is better than the woven market. The finished product pressure of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn is okay, and the inventory of grey cloth has decreased. The terminal demand may continue to be affected by the repeated US tariffs [7]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [10]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [10]. - Inter - variety: None [10]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, which is over - valued. The processing fees of the November and December futures are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are also over - valued, but it may be difficult to compress them due to the weak cost [13]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operation rate is expected to remain at 81% in the fourth quarter. Currently, factories are still maintaining the production reduction. The 110 - million - ton bottle - chip device of Huarun Zhuhai restarted gradually at the end of September, and the 50 - million - ton device is still increasing its load. It is expected to maintain production reduction and industry self - discipline in the future, with the load generally remaining around 80% [11]. - Demand: The price continued to decline, and there was still an increase in low - price purchases. The demand from October to November decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet materials also decreased. The bottle - chip factories accumulated inventory to about 18 days during the National Day. The export in October - November is expected to be in the range of 50 - 55 million tons [11]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe the market's reaction to tariff expectations in the short term. Try to go long if there is a significant over - decline [13]. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads [13]. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts when the processing fee is around 480 - 500 yuan/ton [13]. Other Aspects - Cost and Profit: The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 780 - 800 yuan/ton [48]. - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased, and the inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has risen to around 18 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory from October to November [53]. - Device Changes: Most factories maintain a 20% production reduction. The new 30 - million - ton device of Fuhai is expected to be put into production in late October, and Wuliangye's 10 - million - ton plan is expected to be launched at the end of this year or early next year [59]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of beverage enterprises ranges from 60% - 90%, the sheet - material industry in East China operates at 60% - 80% and in South China at 40% - 70%, and the average operating rate of edible oil enterprises is around 60% - 80% [63]. - Export: From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle - chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam, and the impact of the commissioning of Turkey's SASA on exports to the local area [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

1. Core Viewpoint The oil price trend is weak and demand is flat, causing a smooth decline in polyester raw materials. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Due to the downward shift of the PX - PTA cost center, varieties with high inventory pressure like FDY/DTY may need to further reduce prices to clear inventory, while the price of short - fiber with low inventory has relatively strong support [2][5]. 2. Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On October 09, the PX main contract closed at 6586.0 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 100.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4584.0 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Cost end: On October 09, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.3 US dollars/barrel. Demand end: On October 09, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 857.33 million meters [3]. - Supply end: Although the PX futures price rose slightly, the basis discount continued to expand to - 100 yuan/ton, indicating that the supply pressure in the spot market remained unchanged, possibly related to the recovery of overseas plant operation and the expected release of new domestic production capacity. The current operating rate of PTA is still high, and some plants plan to overhaul or reduce production under the environment of low processing fees, but there is still an over - supply risk on the supply side as a whole. The decline of the crude oil price center weakens the cost support, and the supply pressure of PX is transmitted to PTA, putting pressure on PTA production profits, and the operating rate may be passively lowered later [3]. - Demand end: Polyester demand shows weak signals. The transaction volume of 680 million meters in Light Textile City is significantly lower than the 15 - day average of 857 million meters, reflecting the weakening of downstream textile orders and the lack of sustainability of terminal restocking. The sales rate of polyester filament has fluctuated and declined recently, and the seasonal decline of loom operation may further suppress the PTA procurement demand [4]. - Inventory end: PTA factory inventory has accumulated slightly for two consecutive weeks. Currently, the basis maintains a discount structure (- 44 yuan/ton), indicating that the spot liquidity is relatively abundant. Factories mainly focus on active inventory reduction under the situation of weakening demand and low processing fees. As the supply - demand contradiction deepens, if the demand side fails to improve substantially, the inventory pressure may gradually become apparent [4]. Polyester - On October 09, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6276.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6405.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The inventory of polyester short - fiber is 7.58 days, significantly lower than the five - year average of 4.96 days. The inventory of POY is 13.6 days, lower than the average of 20.40 days. The inventory of FDY is 24.1 days, slightly exceeding the average of 22.19 days. The inventory of DTY is 28.9 days, close to the average of 28.42 days. The structural differentiation shows that the inventory reduction of short - fiber and POY is better than that of FDY/DTY [5]. 3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Futures and Spot Price Changes - PX futures: The main contract price was 6586 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.24% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 43.50%, and the main contract positions decreased by 0.99%. PX spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB both declined slightly [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4584 yuan/ton on October 09, down 0.22% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 5.37%, and the main contract positions increased by 4.75%. PTA spot prices in China's main port CFR declined slightly [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6292 yuan/ton on October 09, up 0.25% from September 30. The main contract trading volume decreased by 42.79%, and the main contract positions decreased by 2.08%. The short - fiber spot price in the East China market remained unchanged [6]. Other Price and Index Changes - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil main contracts declined. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha declined, while the prices of ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged [6]. - The processing spreads of some products changed. For example, the processing spread of PX increased by 2.53%, and the processing spread of PTA increased by 6.33%, while the processing spreads of some other products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [7]. - The total trading volume of Light Textile City decreased by 44.72% compared with September 30, and the trading volumes of long - fiber and short - fiber fabrics also decreased significantly [7]. - The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 19.18%, while the inventory days of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY decreased [7]. 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 09, the minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed internal division among officials, cautiously hinting at a further interest rate cut this year. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 371.5 million barrels, higher than the market expectation of 188.5 million barrels and the previous week's 179.2 million barrels [8]. - On October 08, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in September was 3.38%, up from the previous value of 3.20%. Fed's Kashkari said that the current economic data showed some signs of stagflation. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 09, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 680.0 million meters, with a month - on - month growth of - 44.72%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 541.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 138.0 million meters [9]. 5. Inferred Future Price Trends - Supply end: The slight increase in PX price may indicate potential supply pressure. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the negative basis may mean sufficient spot supply, which may suppress PX production profits and lead enterprises to reduce the operating rate. If PX supply increases, PTA production may increase, but downstream demand needs to be considered [38]. - Demand end: The significantly lower trading volume in Light Textile City than the 15 - day average shows weak downstream textile demand. The decrease in the demand for polyester products may lead to a decline in PTA demand. Low trading volume may reflect a decrease in downstream orders, affecting polyester operation and further suppressing PTA demand [38]. - Inventory end: Although the PTA factory inventory data is missing, combined with the negative basis and the decline in demand, it can be inferred that the inventory may accumulate and there is an over - supply situation. The negative basis usually means sufficient spot supply and increasing inventory pressure [38]. - Overall, due to over - supply and insufficient demand, the prices of PX and PTA may decline in the future [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea, Methanol, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Propylene, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Glass, Soda Ash, Bottle Chip: Investment ratings are provided with star symbols, where red stars represent a predicted upward trend and green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star means a bias towards long/short with a driving force for an upward/downward trend but limited operability on the trading floor. Two stars mean holding long/short with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market condition is evolving. Three stars mean an even clearer long/short trend and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities. White stars mean the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1][9] Core Views - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors. Some products are affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal changes, and raw material price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the futures and spot markets and an expansion of the basis. - For polyolefins, the peak season demand was weak, with mainly rigid demand procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity on the supply side led to a significant increase in domestic production this year, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. Production enterprises accumulated inventory during the double festivals, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holiday, causing prices to be under pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price fell. The pure benzene futures price once dropped below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded following the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and the listed price of Sinopec remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, the port inventory decreased, the actual fundamentals were okay, but the basis weakened compared to before the holiday. High import volume and the expectation of future demand decline continued to drag down the market. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower within the day, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price first decreased and then increased during the holiday, remaining basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost side of styrene. On the supply - demand fundamentals, the peak season demand was weak. Due to the expansion of production capacity, the domestic supply increased significantly. The total inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year, showing a trend of oscillatory inventory accumulation after June. The supply - side pressure was large, suppressing the styrene price, and the styrene market was in a bearish pattern [3] Polyester - The overseas oil price fell during the holiday. The prices of PX and PTA weakened in the morning session and then rebounded in the afternoon due to the oil price recovery. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and the East China device reduced its load due to an accident. In the short term, PX was expected to be under pressure, and the PTA segment repaired its profit. However, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical was planned for maintenance, and the polyester load was expected to be maintained. The short - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials was okay. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand was expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation would still be under pressure in the long run. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday. The fundamentals were weak, and the main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark within the day. In the medium term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation would gradually weaken in the fourth quarter. Under the expectation of inventory accumulation, the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure to decline. - The new production capacity of short fiber was limited, and the operation rate was at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates. The recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It was recommended to continue to be long in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory. The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, as the weather turned cooler, the demand was expected to weaken. Overcapacity was a long - term pressure, and the processing margin was continuously under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises made large - scale external purchases, and enterprises had sufficient orders to be delivered, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. The import was expected to remain sufficient, the port was expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the short - term weakness would continue. The long - term outlook was relatively positive. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and changes in overseas devices. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, the supply remained high, and enterprises faced great pressure to sell. Affected by weather and logistics factors, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period might have ended, so the short - term boost to the market was limited. The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remained loose. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was low, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation pattern. The integrated chlor - alkali enterprises still had profits, but the cost support was not obvious. In a weak real - situation pattern, PVC might show a weak - oscillatory trend. - The caustic soda futures price dropped significantly. There were still vehicle - waiting phenomena among downstream buyers, and the purchase price might be further reduced. The inventory increased compared to the previous period. There were maintenance plans for caustic soda in North and East China in October, but the scale was small. Since there were still profits, the supply was still operating at a high level. The liquid caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan was high, and the downstream profit margin shrank. They were resistant to high - priced products. The weak real - situation pattern continued, but there might be restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production. Since the strong - expectation could not be falsified, it was recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash futures price was in a weak state. The inventory decreased before the holiday and increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry increased after a decrease. It was expected that the ignition speed would slow down in the future, and the incremental rigid demand for heavy soda was limited. There were few maintenance plans in October, the industry's current operating pressure was not large, and the supply would operate at a high level. The long - term supply - demand surplus situation remained unchanged. Opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but be cautious when approaching the cost level. - The glass futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient. The industry seasonally accumulated inventory, and some regions increased their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some project orders increased. Whether Shajiahe would intensively use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously monitored. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to the weak - real - situation trading. However, with the current low valuation, the expected decline range is also limited. In the future, a low - buying strategy near the cost level can be considered [8]