王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8925.00 | -0.84% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7175.00 | 7200.00 | -0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7250.00 | -1.38% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/9 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7200.00 | -1.39% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 6500.00 | 6490.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/9 | 元/吨 | 5860.00 | 5885.00 | -0.42% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/9 ...

缺乏有利因素推动，PX、PTA或继续维持偏弱振荡 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 06月06日，PX 主力合约收6556.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差为 79.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4652.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.17%，基差 为228.0元/吨。 成本端，06月06日，布油主力合约收盘66.65美元/桶。WTI收64.77美元/ 桶。需求端，06月06日，轻纺城成交总量为754.0万米，15 日平均成交为 808.93万米。 目前PX开工率国内78%，亚洲69.4%，但青岛丽东100万吨PX装置计划6月负 荷提升至90%左右，浙石化歧化装置重启提负，辽阳石化短停的70万吨产能 5月26日重启，GS40万吨产能6月中重启等，PX供应将在6月有大量回归，随 后在7月陆续再度进入多套检修时间。PTA有新装置即将投产，供应压力逐 步回归，终端需求边际走弱，PTA价格可能继续承压。 2. 聚酯 二、 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 6月9日 | 6月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 66.48 | 66.47 | 0.01 | 0.02% | | | WTI | 64.60 | 64.58 | 0.02 | 0.03% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 475.90 | 467.90 | 8.00 | 1.71% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.30 | 1.32 | -0.02 | -1.52% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.83 | 1.85 | -0.02 | -1.08% | | | SC MI-M3 | 6.90 | 7.00 | -0.10 | -1.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.88 | 1.89 | -0.01 | -0.53% | | | EFS | 1.70 | 1.72 | -0.0 ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/6 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/4 | 2025/6/5 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 468. 2 1267.5 | 463. 7 1274. 2 | -4. 50 6. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情偏弱,PTA行情小跌 。PTA去库存利好再度发酵,现货货少推涨现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3725 | 1. 3781 | 0. 0056 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 825 | 820 | -5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 257 | -6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4670 | 4644 | -26.0 | | | | PTA现货价格 | 48 ...

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投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免责声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/5 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 462.5 | 468. 2 | 5. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情微幅震荡,PTA去库 | | SC | PTA-SC(元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - **EIA Data**: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - **开工率**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - **开工率**: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].

能源化工期权 2025-06-05 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 数据来源：WIND、五矿期货期权服务部 能源化工期权研究 表2：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | 成交量 | 量PCR | 持仓量 | 仓PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a slow downward trend in the short - term due to factors such as polyester production cuts and weakening downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Cost - As of June 4, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $562.63 per ton, up 0.18% from the previous value; the price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $781 per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of methanol was 2,272.5 yuan per ton, unchanged; the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the DCE main EG contract closing price was 4,292 yuan per ton, down 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 0.92%; the DCE near - month EG contract closing price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 2.32%; the settlement price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 2.48%; the market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of domestic ethylene glycol was 4,425 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The near - far month price difference was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 69 yuan per ton from the previous value; the basis was 133 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11 yuan per ton from the previous value [1] 3.3 Operating Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 50.18%, down 0.75 percentage points from the previous value; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 51.78%, unchanged; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 47.86%, down 1.83 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain's polyester factory was 89.63%, down 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - As of June 4, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO to MEG was - 1,540.34 yuan per ton, a decrease of 129.39 yuan per ton from the previous value; the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method was 680.97 yuan per ton, a decrease of 53.10 yuan per ton from the previous value [1] 3.5 Polyester Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1] 3.6 Equipment Information - A 904,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has completed maintenance and resumed normal operation; another 400,000 - ton/year plant is expected to shut down for maintenance in the near future [2] 3.7 Market Trends and Strategies - On June 4, the ethylene glycol market was weak in the morning, with the basis showing a weak trend. The afternoon session saw a small rebound, and the market sentiment was slightly warmer [2] - The downstream polyester market has seen production cuts, with the sales of polyester filaments, staple fibers, and chips decreasing by 36.03%, 59.67%, and 49.29% respectively. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - International oil prices rose, mainly driven by macro and supply - side factors boosting market risk appetite. In the short - term, the upward trend of the market is due to supply expectation adjustments and macro - geopolitical impacts on market sentiment. In the long - term, the balance sheet may continue to loosen. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The expected price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Options can consider buying straddle structures [2]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant inventory accumulation pressure. The 09 contract is mainly priced based on the oversupply situation in the inland area. The market will continue to force production cuts. The price will continue to decline in an oscillatory manner, with short - term resistance around 2270 and a medium - term target of 2050 - 2100 [5]. Styrene - Although OPEC+ has a strong production increase expectation, geopolitical risks and seasonal factors support oil prices in the short - term. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and the cost support for styrene is weak. With the improvement of styrene industry profits, supply is expected to increase while demand is weak, so styrene prices are under pressure. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [9]. Polyolefins - In the plastics market, the supply of PE may see inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports, while the supply pressure of PP will increase as maintenance ends. The demand lacks sustainability. It is recommended to short - sell PP on rallies and consider expanding the LP spread [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, the supply - side contradiction is limited in June, and some enterprises want to support prices. The demand from the alumina industry provides strong support for the spot price. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between the near - month and 09 contracts. For PVC, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term supply pressure will increase. It is recommended to short - sell PVC on rallies, with an expected price range of 4500 - 5000 [38]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in the continuous impact of high supply and weak demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. After the Dragon Boat Festival, if agricultural fertilizer procurement fails to start effectively and the export volume is low, the price may decline [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing, and demand may weaken. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6500 - 6900, and consider reverse spreads for PX9 - 1 and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, but short - term support is strong. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900, and consider reverse spreads for TA9 - 1. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 around 4200 and positive spreads for EG9 - 1. - Short - fiber: The driving force is weaker than the raw material end. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trading, and expand the processing fee at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 4, Brent rose 1.00 to 65.63, WTI fell 0.18 to 63.23. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased significantly [2]. - **Supply Factors**: Canadian wildfires led to a supply interruption of about 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2509 rose 17 to 2225. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 61 to 6 [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 5.64%, and port inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased significantly [5]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The styrene East - China spot price fell 330 to 7430. The EB07 - EB08 spread decreased by 24 to 78 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and styrene supply may increase while demand is weak [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 increased by 4 to - 28, and PP2505 - 2509 increased by 19 to - 39 [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the开工 rates of some devices changed [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: For caustic soda, FOB East - China port price rose to 410. For PVC, V2505 fell 58 to 4905 [33][34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda has many maintenance plans in June, and PVC supply is expected to increase in the short - term [38]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 contract fell 12 to 1761. The 05 contract - 09 contract spread increased by 13 to - 43 [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production reached 207,000 tons, and enterprise inventory increased by 6.9%. Demand is in the off - season [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: PX prices fell, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 31 to 366. PTA prices decreased, and the PTA spot processing fee increased by 66 to 444 [44]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of some devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as a 2.6% increase in the Asian PX开工率 [44].