风险提示： 国内政策的不确定性，贸易摩擦的不确定性，全球地缘政治的不确定性。 报告导读： 全球 AI 投资持续拉动电子产业链景气，存储器继续涨价；内需仍偏弱，反内 卷支撑下，煤炭 / 汽车价格明显改善；中美关税博弈再度升温，抢出口需求提升。 电子产业链景气延续，耐用品需求透支。 上周（ 10.13-10.19 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）新兴科技景气延续高位，海外 AIDC 资本开支依然十 分旺盛，并带动电子产业链需求持续增长，供需紧张程度较高的存储器价格继续大幅上涨。 2 ）国内地产和建工需求仍然偏弱，耐用品补贴对需求的透支效 果持续显现，但随着反内卷政策的持续推进，部分行业也取得一定进展，供给约束较强的煤炭行业价格大幅上涨；价格竞争烈度有所减弱的乘用车零售价格同 环比有所改善。 3 ）中美关税博弈再度升温，国内抢出口需求提升，海运价格、港口吞吐量环比提高。后续继续关注国内"十五五"规划政策指引以及中美贸 易谈判进展。 下游消费：地产销售偏弱，乘用车零售价格企稳。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比比 -25.0% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品房成交面积同 比 -36.6%/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced overall fluctuations, with a rebound in the new energy sector leading to a slight recovery in the ChiNext index, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards growth sectors with structural prosperity [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext index rose by 0.1% at the close, while the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 index fell by 0.1% and the ChiNext Growth index decreased by 0.4% [1]. Group 2: Investment Trends - According to CITIC Securities, market funds have shifted from concentrated trading in the computing power sector to other low-position growth sectors, suggesting a continuation of a slow bull market in the medium term [1]. - In the context of a macroeconomic environment that has not fully recovered, sectors with structural prosperity are expected to be key investment areas, particularly those with concentrated catalytic events [1]. Group 3: Focused Sectors - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, which are anticipated to drive investment opportunities [1].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the potential for a market style shift in the fourth quarter, suggesting a reduction in positions within the technology growth sector and a shift towards broader indices and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][6] - The macro strategy team indicates that external short-term disturbances are expected to be less significant than in April, with positive signals anticipated from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][6] - The report notes an increase in market volatility and a tendency for profit-taking and portfolio adjustments following the release of favorable signals in October [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards large-cap stocks, with a preference for value over growth, while the volatility of large-cap stocks has increased [8][9] - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of stocks rising within the market, alongside a decline in the concentration of trading among the top 100 stocks [8][9] - Market activity has shown increased volatility, with a mixed performance in turnover rates across different sectors [8][9] Group 3 - In the commodity market, trends for precious metals, energy, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products have strengthened, while the black metal sector has weakened [14][15] - The report indicates an increase in liquidity for precious metals, contrasting with a decline in liquidity for other sectors [14][15] Group 4 - The options market experienced heightened implied volatility due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a temporary spike in fear among investors [19] - The report notes that the indicators for the small-cap/growth style have not shown signs of improvement, despite previous strength [19] Group 5 - The convertible bond market adjusted in line with the stock market, maintaining stable conversion premiums, which suggests a good defensive characteristic compared to the stock market [22] - The report mentions a decline in pure bond premiums and a significant drop in market transaction volumes post-holiday [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's industrial production has achieved rapid growth in the first three quarters of the year, supported by more proactive macro policies, leading to significant improvements in corporate profitability and a stable industrial economy [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters, most industries and products in China's industrial economy experienced growth, with industrial product exports accelerating. The export delivery value of large-scale industries increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and in September, it turned to a growth of 3.8% from a decline in August [3] Group 3 - The industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increasing by 9.7%, accounting for 35.9% of the total added value of large-scale industries, maintaining above 30% for 31 consecutive months. The transformation towards intelligence and greenness is accelerating [5] Group 4 - Corporate profitability has improved, with profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increasing by 0.9% year-on-year from January to August, reversing the declining trend since May. Notably, industries such as non-ferrous metals and electrical machinery saw double-digit profit growth of 12.7% and 11.5%, respectively [7] Group 5 - The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises has rebounded quarter-on-quarter, with 21 out of 41 major industrial categories experiencing a rise in capacity utilization, indicating an improvement in corporate expectations [9]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on October 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62% to 12996.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.79% to 3059.32 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1690.5 billion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Nearly 3000 stocks were in the red, with sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, and semiconductors declining, while the oil sector saw strong gains, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that despite potential pullbacks in Chinese stocks, investors should shift their mindset from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," predicting a 30% increase in the MSCI China Index by the end of 2027 [2] - Dongguan Securities noted that the index is at a high point, with increased capital divergence, warning of potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but also highlighted that economic recovery in Q4 is expected to be supported by policies [2] - The report emphasized that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could attract foreign capital inflows, enhancing the allocation value of A-shares and potentially driving domestic funds into the stock market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a downward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.44% and various sectors such as coal and non-ferrous metals declining, while the artificial meat concept remains active [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3899.05 points, down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component is down 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index is down 0.89%. In contrast, the North China 50 Index has risen by 1.19% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 1.1142 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and brokerage firms are experiencing declines, while engineering machinery, real estate, oil, and pharmaceuticals are seeing gains. The artificial meat, industrial mother machines, and biological vaccine concepts are particularly active [1] Economic Outlook - Dongguan Securities indicates that the index has reached a high point, leading to increased capital divergence and potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking. However, as tariff disturbances are gradually resolved, the economy is expected to continue recovering in the fourth quarter supported by policy measures [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may attract foreign capital inflows, while the decline in domestic risk-free interest rates enhances the investment value of A-shares, potentially driving more domestic capital into the stock market [1] Investment Strategy - The market may face short-term fluctuations, but the medium-term upward trend is expected to continue. It is advised to maintain flexible positions, avoid blind chasing of highs, and actively adjust holdings based on economic conditions and valuation [1]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.89% [1] - The gold and other non-ferrous metal industries experienced a collective decline, while lithium batteries, storage chips, and rare earth sectors saw widespread losses [1] - Real estate and banking sectors showed the highest gains, with active performance in nuclear fusion, wind power, and deep earth technology concepts [1] Technical Indicators - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [2]

Group 1 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a decline, with major indices opening lower and the ChiNext index briefly turning positive before falling [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped over 1%, with most tech stocks declining, while the largest A-share ETF in the same sector saw a nearly 2% drop [1] - The market is currently undergoing a "rebalancing" phase, with a potential shift in investment styles driven by defensive thinking, although the core drivers of the bull market remain intact [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining confidence in the bull market, focusing on technology as the primary driver and PPI trading as a secondary approach [2] - Key sectors to watch include technology growth and self-sufficiency, with specific attention to batteries, power grids, robotics, and AI applications [2] - There are opportunities in cyclical sectors benefiting from marginal PPI improvements, such as steel, chemicals, and real estate, which may see valuation recovery [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that non-ferrous metal stocks are experiencing a decline, with significant drops in companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Chifeng Gold, all falling over 4%, while Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth dropped over 2% [1] - Related ETFs in the non-ferrous and mining sectors have also seen a decline of approximately 2% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance shows that the Non-Ferrous Leading ETF is priced at 0.850, down by 2.07%, while the Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Fund is at 1.616, down by 2.00% [2] - A brokerage report suggests that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to face high market volatility risks in 2025 due to uncertainties from both demand and supply sides [2] - Emerging demand in the downstream structure of copper and aluminum is expected to support a long-term upward shift in the price center of non-ferrous metals [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]