Summary of Conference Call on New Consumption Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the **new consumption industry**, highlighting its characteristics and dynamics in the market [1][2][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Word-of-Mouth Effect**: New consumption products benefit from consumer-driven word-of-mouth marketing, leading to performance and stock price growth, creating a positive feedback loop [1][3]. - **Policy Impact**: The effect of policy stimuli on the new consumption industry varies by company, with stocks that already show growth or have self-propagating effects performing particularly well [4][5]. - **Pricing Dynamics**: Prices of optional consumer goods are not directly linked to production costs but are influenced by market demand, brand power, and consumer psychology, leading to significant price volatility [6][7]. - **Emotional Value**: The success of new consumption products hinges on their ability to meet consumers' emotional needs, particularly among younger demographics who seek to express their unique aesthetic through purchases [8][11]. - **Role of Public Companies**: Publicly listed companies significantly influence the development of new consumption products by validating early consumer choices through stock price increases, enhancing market recognition [10][20]. - **Self-Propagation Characteristics**: New consumption must be tradable and easily marketable, often emerging from new consumer habits or brands that break traditional boundaries [14][17]. Additional Important Points - **Consumer as Marketer**: The new consumption model allows consumers to act as marketers, promoting products through their networks, which is essential for achieving a breakout effect [17][18]. - **Generational Trends**: New consumption trends often resonate more with younger generations, as they seek to differentiate themselves from older generations through their choices [15]. - **Market Expansion Examples**: Brands like Moutai have successfully expanded by leveraging new consumption strategies, appealing even to those who do not traditionally consume their products [16]. - **Future Investment Potential**: The future growth potential in the new consumption sector depends on the specific stage of the target companies and their ability to continuously attract new consumer groups [20]. Conclusion - The new consumption industry is characterized by its self-propagating nature, emotional engagement with consumers, and the significant role of public companies in shaping market dynamics. Investors are encouraged to analyze the long-term potential of companies within this sector to identify promising opportunities.

除了新消费和创新药，上周我们还对券商进行了分析。券商存在两种走势：一 种是直接调整；另一种是由于 618 陆家嘴金融会议可能出台重磅金融政策，有 资金提前布局博弈题材，因此券商有可能继续上涨。如果券商上涨，将带动上 证指数挑战 5 月 14 日高点 3,417 点。这两种情况分别标识为橙色和蓝色走势。 如果券商打不起来，再加上医药和新消费走弱，大盘可能直接进入调整。 廖市无双：4 月以来的反弹结束了吗？20250622 美国介入以色列与伊朗冲突对全球资本市场有什么影响？ 摘要 新消费板块前期涨幅较大后显疲态，已形成五浪结构，面临调整压力。 黄金饰品等龙头股走弱，港股相关标的也出现回调，建议投资者保持谨 慎。 创新药板块技术指标显示调整信号，中证创新药指数和港股创新药指数 均出现顶背离迹象，预示日线级别四浪整理需求。短期内不宜盲目追高。 券商板块存在两种走势可能：直接调整或受陆家嘴金融会议政策预期影 响上涨，带动上证指数挑战 3,417 点。券商表现将影响大盘走向，值得 密切关注。 近期市场受中东地缘政治冲突影响，风险偏好下降，上证 50 和沪深 300 小幅下跌，其他指数跌幅较大。银行板块表现较强，对市场起到 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of accurately identifying and assessing the innovative attributes and commercial prospects of technology enterprises, which is a key aspect of the STAR Market reform [1] - The introduction of seasoned professional institutional investors is proposed to enhance the evaluation of companies' innovative attributes and commercial potential, thereby facilitating better decision-making for review agencies and retail investors [1] - The efficient integration of technology and capital is expected to further unlock the development space for new productive forces [1] Group 2 - Multiple companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange are actively pursuing cash acquisitions to expand their business areas, with several announcements made since 2025 [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange has revised its rules regarding major asset restructuring to enrich the tools available for mergers and acquisitions for innovative SMEs [2] - The exchange aims to continue implementing policies to optimize market mechanisms and stimulate market vitality, thereby supporting innovative SMEs in enhancing their development quality and investment value [2] Group 3 - Satellite communication technology is becoming a focal point in the mobile communication sector, particularly highlighted at the 2025 Shanghai World Mobile Communication Conference [3] - Industry experts believe that satellite communication is reshaping network access in remote areas and connecting populations that lack internet access, thus opening a new chapter in the digital economy [3] - The satellite industry is expected to lead revolutionary changes in the communication sector over the next decade [3] Group 4 - The new classification evaluation rules for securities companies are set to reshape industry positioning by shifting the focus from scale to value creation, with net asset return rate as a core efficiency metric [4] - The adjustments aim to enhance operational efficiency and deter major illegal activities within the securities industry, promoting a virtuous cycle of compliance, rating, and business [4] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital market reforms [5] - Despite short-term pressures from overseas factors, the technology sector, backed by industry trends and strong performance in semi-annual reports, is recommended for investor attention [5] Group 6 - A significant number of newly established fund products, particularly initiator funds, are facing challenges in growth, with 41 funds having been liquidated this year due to persistent low scales [6] - The majority of these funds were created to chase market trends but failed to perform, leading to investor withdrawals and subsequent liquidation [6] Group 7 - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" aims to enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of traditional cross-border payments, facilitating real-time remittance services between mainland China and Hong Kong [12] - This initiative is seen as a strategic move to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi and deepen financial cooperation between the two regions [12] Group 8 - The first batch of floating rate funds has been established, with a total scale exceeding 12.6 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in performance-linked fee structures [14] - The average subscription for these funds has surpassed 10,000 households, with the highest single fund attracting over 47,000 subscriptions, reflecting the appeal of the management fee model tied to performance [14]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy of the company has evolved from a singular focus on growth stocks to a diversified approach that adapts to market changes, emphasizing the importance of both sustainable growth and risk management in investment decisions [1][5][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Evolution - The company has recognized the limitations of a single investment strategy, especially in the current challenging market for growth stocks, prompting a shift towards diversification [1][4]. - The investment philosophy now incorporates a combination of growth, value, and dividend stocks, with a focus on macroeconomic trends and style timing to enhance portfolio resilience [5][9]. - The company aims to balance investment opportunities with safety, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI advancements and those with reasonable valuations [1][9]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Focus Areas - The company believes that the most uncertain phase of the market has passed, with expectations for better investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, particularly in growth stocks [9]. - Key sectors of interest include the internet sector benefiting from AI development, domestic consumption-related industries, technology with a focus on self-sufficiency, and sectors supported by growth policies like engineering machinery [9][10]. - The semiconductor industry is highlighted for its significant growth potential, driven by increasing domestic production and technological advancements [10].

中国资产仍具备较强吸引力 中国基金报：对2025年下半年的A股市场怎么看？市场拐点有望在何时出现？ 李崟： 目前市场的估值水平仍处在历史偏低位置，同时宏观处于货币政策与财政政策"双宽 松"阶段，为A股市场向好提供重要支撑。 【导读】 绩优基金经理展望下半年：市场有望震荡向上，掘金大健康、新消费、科技创新 中国基金报记者 方丽 曹雯璟 张燕北 陆慧婧 2025年上半年即将收官。展望下半年市场，基金经理对整体投资机会有何预期？哪些领域更 值得布局？影响股市行情的核心因素有哪些？ 中国基金报采访了七位绩优公募基金经理，分别为 招商基金投资管理一部总监李崟，兴业基 金权益投资部总经理邹慧，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、永赢惠添益基金经理王乾，诺安基 金研究部总经理邓心怡，长城基金国际业务部副总经理、长城港股通价值精选基金经理曲少 杰，平安医药精选股票基金经理周思聪和信澳领先增长基金经理齐兴方 。 整体看，他们对后市较为乐观，认为A股市场整体估值水平仍处在历史偏低位置，货币政策和 财政政策处于"双宽松"阶段，为A股市场向好提供重要支撑；预计下半年市场有望震荡向上， 看好大健康、新消费、科技创新等领域。 王乾： 预计下半年市 ...

Group 1 - The core incremental capital in the A-share market this year is quantitative funds, with the micro-index significantly outperforming broad-based indices, achieving a cumulative increase of 31.9% as of June 20, 2025 [1][2] - Quantitative private equity funds have shown remarkable performance, with an average return of 29.6% from June 2024 to May 2025, significantly outperforming the top private equity funds' overall return of 1.1% [1][2] - As of May 2025, the total number of registered quantitative private equity products reached 1,930, accounting for 44.3% of all private equity securities products, indicating the growing importance of quantitative strategies in the private equity sector [2] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced two distinct rounds of upward trends in 2025, each characterized by different styles and incremental capital structures [3] - The first round, termed "spring excitement," was dominated by active funds, with small-cap growth styles outperforming due to a favorable market environment and increased participation from retail investors [3] - The second round, following a "golden pit," saw a shift towards a more balanced style, with significant contributions from state-owned funds and a notable inflow of ETF funds, particularly into the CSI 300 ETF [3] Group 3 - The rise of new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals is driven by incremental southbound capital, reflecting a mapping logic from Hong Kong stocks to A-shares [4] - Since the beginning of the year, southbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in the new consumption sector, with a cumulative net inflow of 25.2 billion Hong Kong dollars as of June 19, 2025 [4] - In the innovative pharmaceutical sector, southbound funds have also shown substantial interest, with a net inflow exceeding 60 billion Hong Kong dollars, becoming a core driving force for the sector's performance [4] Group 4 - Recent market conditions indicate a lack of main themes, with overall sentiment among institutions and active funds remaining low since April 2025 [6] - The scarcity of incremental capital has led to a predominance of quantitative funds in the market, which tend to dominate pricing power in low liquidity environments [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that quantitative funds will continue to play a leading role, although there are signs of potential short-term corrections in micro-cap stocks [6] Group 5 - The report suggests that in the current "fan-like" rotation market, focusing on high-cut low rhythms is key to achieving excess returns [7] - Future allocations should consider sectors with clear performance expectations and advantageous positions, particularly in the broader technology sector, including AI computing power, controlled nuclear fusion, military industry, commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and deep-sea technology [7]

2025 年 06 月 21 日 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com A 股为什么短期风险偏好下降？ ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/06/16-25/06/21) 证 券 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 一 周 回 顾 展 望 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期 A 股风险偏好回落，自上而下叙事有所弱化：1. 国内经济支撑力处于空窗期： "抢出口"提前走弱，市场预期稳增长再发力要等到 9-10 月。2. 海外扰动增加：美国 债务上限，地缘冲突都是风险来源。7-8 月还需观察中美贸易谈判成果。3. 强势行业的 叙事扰动：AI 深度应用推进偏慢，新消费消化性价比问题，市场对反内卷仍持观望态度。 ...

市场终于跌了…不过市场跌不多，现在的买盘还是很强！板块之间的变化会比大盘的变化更多一些，机会也一样更多些。 我们对于本次股市出现短暂下跌，是乐观且期待的，因为这样，短暂的机会才会出现。但是我们还在等待的趋势性机会，可能还是不会有。 在今天这次的展望里，我们会给出对于目前市场上的几个主流资产的观点看法。 大家好，我是老丁 看一下本周整体的大盘情况，本周上证指数下跌0.51%，创业板指下跌1.66%，恒生科技指数下跌2.03%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，纳斯达克上涨0.72%（截止 周五盘前）。 现在市场上最值得关注的就是，茅台为首的白酒下跌，寒武纪为首的芯片阴跌，泡泡玛特为首的新消费回调，还有地缘政治带来的原油上涨。（因为所属 不同市场，我们会在下文详细表述这些） 这也是在下周如果要看机会需要着重关注的地方。其实这种机会，都是点状的，目前市场上没有发现趋势性机会….由此，我们也只能在暂时捉不到大鱼 的时候，也看看小鱼，哪怕不参与，验证一下观点也好。 刚过去的这一周，美联储公布了利率决议，表示不降息。现在利率还是维持在高位…根据历史经验，当美联储过去有过大的货币政策，居民和企业都大幅 借贷，然后后续货币政策从宽松又 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has decided to temporarily suspend IPOs, but is implementing a pre-review mechanism for high-quality technology companies, indicating a cautious approach rather than a full opening of the IPO market [1] - The CSRC's actions can be seen as a signal to further support IPOs after encouraging mergers and acquisitions, suggesting a positive market sentiment and potential for a bull market [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3362 points after a day of weak trading and a significant drop in trading volume to approximately 1.2 trillion [3] - There is a noticeable shift in market dynamics, with previously strong sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and digital currencies experiencing declines, while underperforming sectors like humanoid robots saw a rebound [3] Group 3 - Over 4000 stocks in the A-share market declined, with a significant increase in selling pressure as the market showed weak performance, leading to a closing volume exceeding 56 billion [5] - The lack of strong buying support during the market's decline suggests that large funds are not currently inclined to intervene, which could lead to further downward pressure if the market continues to fall [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical turning point, with the 3330 to 3350 point range being particularly sensitive; if this range is breached, it could lead to more severe declines [6] - Historical patterns suggest that if the index can maintain this range, there may be potential for recovery, although current market conditions make predictions uncertain [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.79%, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes dropped by over 1% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the external environment and market expectations for the second half of 2025, highlighting the potential for increased volatility and the importance of a dual-track allocation strategy in investment [3][4]. Group 1: External Environment and Market Trends - Since March, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, indicating a shift of funds away from dollar assets, with non-dollar assets receiving strong liquidity support [3]. - The market has already priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as shifts in international capital flows [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The article anticipates that the second half of 2025 will see increased market volatility as expectations align with reality, particularly as high-frequency data begins to validate these expectations [4]. - The article suggests that Chinese equity assets are likely to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in emerging markets [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend stocks and technology growth sectors is recommended, with projected revenue growth for the CSI 300 index at 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term investors [5].