Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The steel market is in a volatile range. The upward rebound trading story is not well - developed, and the cost - collapse narrative is also unsmooth. The price will enter a period of tug - of - war, and the rebound height of finished products is relatively limited. It is advisable to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory during the volatile period. The steel basis maintains a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be a reverse - spread logic in the spot off - season [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot - end coking coal auctions continue to weaken, but the rate of unsuccessful auctions has decreased. Big mines have lowered long - term agreement prices. The market still expects coke price cuts. On the futures side, coking coal prices were affected by supply - side news but did not hold above 800. The black - chain index is weak, and the 20 - day line shows obvious pressure. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and wait and see for unilateral trading [6]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable and follow the steel market. Ferrosilicon production has decreased in some regions, but demand has weakened, and costs have declined. Silicomanganese supply has increased, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened [7]. - Iron Ore: The overall situation of the iron ore market remains weak. Iron ore shipments are increasing, and port inventories are starting to accumulate. The downstream pressure is intensifying, and it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices and Changes**: - On June 17, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2974 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2601 at 3091 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan, 0.10% increase), I2601 at 670 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan, - 0.15% decrease), J2601 at 1388 yuan/ton (up 13.5 yuan, 0.98% increase), and JM2601 at 807 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan, 1.13% increase). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2981 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, 0.17% increase), HC2510 at 3093 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan, 0.13% increase), I2509 at 699 yuan/ton (down 0.5 yuan, - 0.07% decrease), J2509 at 1365.5 yuan/ton (up 13.5 yuan, 1.00% increase), and JM2509 at 789.5 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan, 0.70% increase) [2]. - **Spread and Ratio**: - On June 17, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 7 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), between HC2510 and HC2601 was 2 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), between I2509 and I2601 was 29 yuan/ton (down 0.5 yuan), between J2509 and J2601 was - 22.5 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), and between JM2509 and JM2601 was - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan). - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 (up 0.02), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73 (up 0.01), the rebar disk profit was 187.15 yuan/ton (up 2.83 yuan), and the coking disk profit was 315.47 yuan/ton (up 2.48 yuan) [2]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On June 17, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3160 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged). The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the Platts Index was 93.10 (down 1.15). The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3170 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 3220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 3150 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively. The billet - to - product spread was 190 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the price of PB ore at Rizhao Port was 716 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port: Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 700 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal was 860 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal was 70 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Hebei Tangshan was 1015 yuan/ton. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1335 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the basis of HC (main contract) was 77 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan), RB (main contract) was 119 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), I (main contract) was 31 yuan/ton (unchanged), J (main contract) was 104.98 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and JM (main contract) was 30.5 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan) [2].

2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 18 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 699.0 | -5.5 | -0.78 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long - position [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious observation [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term volatility intensifies, cautious long - position [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - biased oscillation, cautious long - position [3] 2. Core Views - The global risk preference has cooled overall due to the weakening US economic data and the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran. In China, the economic growth is generally stable, but the short - term Middle East geopolitical situation has affected market sentiment [3][4] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions based on the current economic and geopolitical situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: US May retail sales were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous, the US dollar rebounded after a decline, and the global risk preference cooled [3] - **Domestic**: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk preference in the short term, but the Middle East situation dampened it [3][4] - **Assets**: Stocks oscillate in the short term, cautiously long - position; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level, observe cautiously; black metals oscillate at a low level, observe cautiously; non - ferrous metals oscillate, observe cautiously; energy and chemicals have intensified volatility, cautiously long - position; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level, cautiously long - position [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, game, film and television, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The economic fundamentals are stable, but the Middle East situation impacts market sentiment. The market focuses on Middle East risks, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long - position [4] Precious Metals - The gold market oscillated narrowly, and silver rebounded. The Middle East situation is the main influencing factor. If the two sides return to the negotiation table, the gold risk - premium may decline rapidly, and silver will remain in consolidation [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets were stable, but demand may weaken due to industrial and real - estate pressure. Supply may not decline significantly in the short term. The market will oscillate at the bottom [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron - water production may remain high, supply is expected to be high in the second quarter, and the rising coking coal price will suppress the iron - ore price. Short - term interval oscillation [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys declined. The market rumors were false. Short - term interval oscillation [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global economic slowdown and high tariffs do not support a sharp rise. Pay attention to US trade policies and tariff decisions [9] - **Aluminum**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory decline slowed down. The demand - boosting policy has uncertainties, and the demand may weaken [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the orders are weak, but the tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. Short - term oscillation, limited upside [9] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production resumption may be delayed. In the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. Short - term oscillation, upside pressure [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's remarks increased concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East, although the export facilities are currently unaffected [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the oil price to test the previous high. The shipment was stable, the profit recovered, and the inventory decline stagnated. Follow the oil price at a high level [12] - **PX**: The price followed the oil price to rise. The maintenance is concentrated in June - July, and the PTA operation rate increased. It will oscillate strongly [12] - **PTA**: The basis increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory transfer improved. It will oscillate strongly, pay attention to bottle - chip production cuts [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is stable, the downstream inventory decline is limited, and the synthetic - gas production resumed. It will oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Short - fiber**: It oscillated strongly following the polyester sector. The terminal orders recovered slowly, and the inventory accumulated. Follow the oil price [14] - **Methanol**: The domestic price declined slightly, the port basis strengthened. The supply may be affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply is expected to increase. Short - term strong [16] - **PP**: The price adjusted slightly. The production increased, the demand was weak, and the cost supported the price. It may face a callback after a short - term rise [17] - **LLDPE**: The price increased, the import window opened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production restarted, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the oil price [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil futures fell, triggering profit - taking pressure. The US Senate proposed a $1 - billion tax bill [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market drove the soybean meal futures up, but the domestic supply and demand will be looser. The rapeseed meal demand increase was insufficient [20] - **Oils**: The tension in the Middle East made the palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material, and the palm oil exports increased [20] - **Corn**: The arrival of corn in Shandong was low, and the northeast corn provided support. Import auctions and wheat substitution may cause corn to consolidate at a high level [21] - **Hogs**: The weight reduction of large - scale farms was limited, the spot market was stable, and the demand is expected to improve seasonally [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the black commodity futures generally rose and stabilized. The real - estate market received positive macro signals, but the real - estate data from January to May did not improve. The demand in the off - season led to more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and a continuous decline in hot metal production, which suppressed the alloy market sentiment. However, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. The supply of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but the high inventory pressure limited the upward movement of the market. Manganese silicon faced cost and supply pressure. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices and price changes of various black commodity futures on June 17 are as follows: the closing price of rebar was 2981 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; hot - rolled coil was 3093 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; iron ore was 699 yuan/ton; coking coal was 789.5 yuan/ton, up 0.55 yuan or 0.70%; coke was 1365.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.00%. The basis for rebar was 119, for hot - rolled coil was 107, for iron ore was 21, for coking coal was 120.5, and for coke was - 120.5. [1] Market Analysis - On the demand side, the real - estate market had positive signals but the data from January to May did not improve. In the off - season, steel mills had more blast furnace overhauls, and hot metal production declined, suppressing the alloy market. However, the high profitability rate of steel mills meant weak willingness to cut production, and the short - term rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese still existed. [1] - On the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon was at a low level, but high inventory limited upward movement. Manganese silicon faced cost - inversion pressure, slow sales, and potential new production capacity, which might increase supply pressure. [1] - In terms of cost, coal prices were stable, and the impact on ferrosilicon was limited. The manganese ore market was stabilizing, and coke prices were expected to have a fourth - round reduction. The cost line of manganese silicon was weakly stable. [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, adopt a short - term shock - based approach and focus on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and focus on supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two. [1] Summary - Without obvious improvement in fundamentals, the improvement in market sentiment had limited driving force for ferrosilicon prices, and it should be regarded as a short - term rebound. For manganese silicon, the price center might move up due to short - term market sentiment, but continuous upward movement required the resonance of macro and reality, and currently the driving force was weak, also regarded as a rebound. [1]

Consumption - In May, the retail sales growth rate reached 6.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1%[8] - The increase in retail sales was driven by e-commerce promotions and an additional 2 days of holidays compared to last year, leading to concentrated demand release[2] - Significant improvements were noted in household appliances (+14.2 percentage points to 53.0%) and communication equipment (+13.1 percentage points to 33.0%) sales[9] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7%, below the expected 4%, with a monthly decline of 0.7 percentage points to 2.8%[8] - The decline in investment was primarily due to the end of the equipment renewal cycle and a drop in traditional infrastructure and real estate investments[3] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, slightly worse than the expected decline of 10.5%[8] Production - Industrial value-added growth in May was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from April[25] - Manufacturing production saw a significant decline, down 0.4 percentage points to 6.2%, influenced by fewer working days in May compared to last year[25] - The decline in production was exacerbated by weak real estate and export sectors, particularly affecting transportation equipment and electrical machinery[25]

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth in May remains stable, but the structure shows signs of divergence, with retail growth accelerating due to external factors, while fixed asset investment and real estate sales continue to weaken [1][8]. Macro - External factors support retail growth, with tariff reductions not fully reflected in May data, leading to a slight decline in industrial value-added growth to 5.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - May's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% from 6.1% in April, with manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing also experiencing declines [2]. - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in 2024, driven by trade-in policies and early promotions [3][8]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% in the first five months, with declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments [4][5]. - Real estate sales continue to weaken, with a 3.3% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 6.0% decline in sales value in May [6][24]. Strategy - The economic data for May indicates a need for further policy support to stimulate demand, with a focus on stable recovery in the second half of the year [8][20]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors [8]. Real Estate - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with new housing sales declining and investment pressures persisting [24][25]. - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 35 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early June 2025 compared to late May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.0% to 1.7%, with rebar priced at 3111.1 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.4% to 78731.7 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6% to 20203.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.3% to 635.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.5% to 2137.0 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 1.1% to 4264.2 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 1.1% to 8372.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a decline, with anthracite coal dropping by 3.6% to 914.8 yuan per ton and coke decreasing by 5.6% to 1181.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased slightly by 0.2% to 4036.8 yuan per ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.6% to 2415.3 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices also saw a decline, with urea dropping by 1.4% to 1864.3 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology involves various data collection techniques, including on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices returned to weakness after touching the 20 - day moving average on Thursday, with both spot volume and price falling. After basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. For hot - rolled coils and rebar, pay attention to the 20 - day moving average on the disk as the resistance level and the re - entry hedging point range [5]. - The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Coking coal spot continued to weaken, with many auctions failing and the cost of coking coal decreasing. The futures market of coking coal and coke weakened due to the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiation results. Macro uncertainties are large, and the market has no stable expectation. In the industry, the demand for five major steel products is seasonally weakening, and the coking coal supply may increase in the future [6]. - For steel, focus on short - side trading. Prefer hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [8]. - For coking coal and coke, based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found, continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. The prices of both are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [9]. - For iron ore, the trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. The decline in the output of five major steel products did not lead to inventory accumulation. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise to a high level, and the market should consider the changes in inventory after the peak season and the stability of steel exports [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On June 12, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2962 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.67%); HC2601 at 3079 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.71%); I2601 at 671 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.07%); J2601 at 1348 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.46%); JM2601 at 779 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan (- 1.95%). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2968 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.70%); HC2510 at 3080 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.87%); I2509 at 704 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan (- 0.21%); J2509 at 1328.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 1.77%); JM2509 at 766.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 2.79%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: - On June 12, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton, unchanged; between HC2510 and HC2601 was 1 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73, unchanged; the rebar disk profit was 184.4 yuan/ton, down 4.3 yuan; the coking disk profit was 309.06 yuan/ton, down 4.89 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Steel: On June 12, Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2890 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices continued to weaken, with many auctions failing. The price index of coking coal was 951.7, down 6.1. Port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1180 yuan/ton. For Mongolian coal, prices were under pressure, with downstream buyers having strong price - cutting intentions [6]. Different Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again. For trading, focus on short - side trading, and prefer hot - rolled coils for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [5][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Spot coking coal weakened, and the futures market also showed weakness. Continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, approaching off - season, and decreasing costs [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and pay attention to inventory changes and steel export stability [9].