Group 1 - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with A-shares outperforming and the Hang Seng Tech Index leading gains, while major commodities like oil and copper declined [1][11] - The domestic equity market favored growth sectors over cyclical and consumer sectors, with a daily average trading volume of 24,948 billion yuan, up from 22,987 billion yuan [2][18] - The technology sector remains a key focus, with potential in AI applications across various industries and improvements in computing infrastructure [2][8] Group 2 - The PPI's impact on industrial enterprise profits is under scrutiny, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, indicating potential effects on profitability [2][8] - The energy sector saw WTI crude oil prices stabilize at $62.68 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.482 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year rise [2][26] - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,684.65 per ounce, benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cut, while concerns about demand persist [2][38] Group 3 - The bond market experienced slight upward pressure on yields, influenced by stock market strength and government bond supply peaks [2][19] - The U.S. Treasury yields rebounded following the Fed's rate cut, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.14%, reflecting market adjustments to economic data [2][23] - The RMB initially appreciated against the dollar but later depreciated, with expectations of fluctuations around 7.10 [2][25]

2025 年 09 月 21 日 关注权益风格切换——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《风险偏好修复或基本到位—— 资产配置周报》2025-09-14 2、《债券在争议中上涨——资产配 置周报》2025-09-07 3、《外资流入带来资金面改善—— 资产配置周报》2025-08-31 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 8 月实体部门负债增 速录得 8.9%，前值 9.1%，基本符合预期。预计 9 月实体部门 负债增速继续下降至 8.7%附近，10 月短暂趋稳后继续下行， 重回缩表。按照两会公布的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部 门负债增速将下降至 8%附近。金融部门方面，上周资金面边 际上有所收敛，股债表现同向，似乎主要在交易联储降息。 2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出："使社会融资规模、货币 供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"，这 表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没有任何动摇，中国仍然处 于 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that from September 15 to 19, the equity market showed a decline after a period of strength, with the Wande All A index closing at 6209.37, down 0.18% from September 12, while the China Convertible Bond index fell by 1.55, indicating a continued state of valuation retreat [1][9]. - Despite increased market volatility in September, there is a persistent inflow of funds into thematic ETFs, suggesting that investors are not abandoning thematic pursuits but are instead looking for new opportunities to capitalize on [1][16]. - The report notes that low-priced stocks have shown significant excess returns in September, which some investors associate with a potential end to the bull market; however, the report argues that this strength may be linked to retail investor participation and market style shifts rather than signaling a market downturn [2][54]. Group 2 - The report discusses the reasons behind the excess returns of low-priced stocks, including the influence of small investors who find it easier to invest in low-priced stocks due to minimum trading unit restrictions, which limits their ability to purchase high-priced stocks [2][43]. - It is noted that low-priced stocks often follow a pattern of rallying after small-cap stocks during liquidity-driven bull markets, as seen in previous cycles from 2014 to 2015 [2][46]. - The convertible bond market has faced increased trading difficulties following sharp price fluctuations, with valuation compression observed, leading to a challenging investment environment [3][59].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - Everbright Securities predicts increased market volatility in the short term due to profit-taking pressures and a relatively high valuation level since 2010 [1] - The firm suggests focusing on sectors such as power equipment, communication, computer, electronics, automotive, and media in the short term, while emphasizing TMT sectors for the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a focus on resource stocks, consumer electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming, driven by supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions [2] - The firm highlights the importance of China's manufacturing leaders in global markets, aiming to convert market share advantages into pricing power and improved profit margins [2] - The investment strategy includes a left-side focus on chemicals and military industries, with a recent emphasis on the expansion of AI from cloud to edge computing [2] Group 3 - Xiangcai Securities anticipates a "slow bull" market for A-shares by 2025, influenced by the new "National Nine Articles" and similar investment policies [3] - The firm expects significant impacts from the ongoing "14th Five-Year Plan," with key focus areas including technology, green initiatives, and consumer services [3] - In the short term, the market is expected to exhibit wide fluctuations with a gradual upward trend, recommending attention to anti-involution sectors, AI-related technology, and environmental protection sectors [3] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities identifies four main investment lines in the construction industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, as urban development shifts from expansion to quality improvement [4] - The firm anticipates increased efforts in urban renewal and a new wave of global industrial transfer benefiting Southeast Asia, driving demand for infrastructure [4] - Recommended investment lines include major engineering projects, overseas expansion, high dividend stocks, and sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics such as coal chemical, nuclear power, and cleanroom engineering [4]

2025 年 09 月 21 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 长假临近，震荡分化延续 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《颠簸初现，成长风格人气仍高 —策 略周报》2025-09-07 2、《A 股 8 月强势收官，9 月有哪些变 数？ —策略周报》2025-08-31 3、《沪指强势反弹，周期成长轮动 —策 略周报》2025-08-10 4、《沪指表现强势，风格再迎轮动？ — 策略周报》2025-07-27 5、《沪指站上 3500，如何应对？ —策 略周报》2025-07-13 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】债市或延续区间震荡，关注信用债票息收入。当前债市并未出 现实质性利空，经济数据连续回落并未形成有效利好，反映市场情绪依然偏 弱，收益率下行空间尚未打开。债市短期大概率维持震荡走势。10 年期国债 收益率或仍 ...

除了直接投资股票，险资借道ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）入市的趋势愈发显著。Wind数据显示，截至6月末，险资 合计持有约500只ETF，持有的ETF份额超过2500亿份，持仓市值超2800亿元，持有ETF份额较2025年初出现明显增长。 中信建投策略分析师夏凡捷对智通财经表示，对于A股来说，保险资金等中长期资金配置周期较长，投资思路稳健，在 过去几年中对市场的影响力不断上升，正在成为A股市场的基石。 减持宽基ETF，行业ETF规模翻倍增长 智通财经记者 | 冯丽君 A股"慢牛"至今，险资也在悄然提高风险偏好。 截至9月19日（周五）收盘，上证指数今年以来上涨近14%，创业板指涨幅超44%，科创50指数上涨37.79%。 与此同时，险资也在加大权益市场的布局。国家金融监管总局披露的数据显示，截至2025年二季度末，我国保险公司资 金运用余额突破36万亿元，达36.23万亿元，同比增长17.4%。其中，财产险股票投资占比8.33%，人身险股票投资占比 8.81%，分别环比提升0.77、0.38个百分点。 中国平安副总经理兼首席财务官付欣在2025中期业绩发布会上介绍，全行业上半年增配股票，中国平安主要选择了在相 ...

刚过去的交易周（9月15日至19日），A股市场在年内高位出现较大波动，这似乎提醒所有股民： 慢牛，也不是随地"捡钱"的行情。 Wind数据显示，尽管本周主要股指涨跌互现，双创指数涨幅不小；但核心资产与微盘股表现一般。 | 名称 | 周涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | | 创业板指 | 2.3495 | 44.3388 | | 200 | 1.84% | 37.789% | | 深证成指 | 1.14% | 25.51% | | 中证A50 | 0.48% | 12.04% | | 中证500 | 0.32% | 25.23% | | 中证1000 | 0.21% | 24.85% | | 中证A500 | 0.02% | 17.89% | | 中证2000 | -0.02% | 32.59% | | 沪深300 | -0.44% | 14.41% | | 上证指数 | -1.30% | 13.97% | | 北证50 | -1.43% | 52.05% | | 红利指数 | -1.45% | -6.72% | | 万得微盘股 | -1.45% | 66.18% | 因此从个 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching a 10-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.3% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - The total trading volume for the week increased to 12.59 trillion yuan, with a daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 28 consecutive trading days [1] - The market's adjustment is seen as a normal rotation of profit-taking, with analysts suggesting limited downside potential and a likely continuation of an upward trend [1][4] Sector Performance - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 41.6 billion yuan for the week, leading all industries, with a total net inflow of 104.5 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days [2] - Other sectors such as machinery, automotive, and telecommunications also received significant net inflows, while the non-ferrous metals and pharmaceutical sectors experienced notable outflows [2] - The tourism sector showed strength ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with the tourism index reaching a 4.5-year high [5][6] Investment Trends - Margin trading balances in the A-share market have risen to over 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with significant net purchases in the manufacturing sector [2] - Analysts from various firms suggest that the current bull market remains intact, with a focus on sectors such as AI, solid-state batteries, and semiconductors as key investment themes [3][4] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to increase investor attention on long-term reform directions, with a focus on economic development and innovation [3] Upcoming Events - The People's Bank of China will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong, and the Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 157 billion yuan of 3-year government bonds [7][8] - The upcoming LPR (Loan Prime Rate) announcement is anticipated, with the previous rates set at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans [9] - A series of significant events, including the National Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month and various economic forums, are scheduled, which may impact market sentiment [10][13]

Group 1 - The financing trend around the National Day holiday typically shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday and explosion after" [1][5][12] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market generally experiences a calendar effect, with a tendency for major indices to rebound after the holiday [5][14][22] - The probability of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 60% based on the past decade [5][14][22] Group 2 - Key sectors that are expected to perform well post-holiday include computer, communication, and electronics, with banks, non-bank financials, and automobiles also showing strong performance in the following weeks [5][18][21] - The financing balance has shown a significant increase, with a net inflow of 558.3 billion yuan since July, indicating that financing has become a major driving force for market growth [7][9][28] - The current financing balance reached 2.39 trillion yuan, which is above historical highs, although it still represents only 2.54% of the A-share market's circulating value [9][10][28] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is part of a preventive easing strategy, which historically leads to higher probabilities of A-share and Hong Kong stock market gains [6][25][26] - The report suggests a continued focus on growth-oriented sectors, particularly in solid-state batteries, AI computing, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [1][25][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [6]. Core Viewpoints - Quantum computing is becoming a key focus for governments worldwide, with significant investments from leading companies like NVIDIA, suggesting an acceleration in the commercialization of quantum computing [3][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing advancements in quantum computing technology and its applications, with notable developments from both domestic and international companies [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Quantum computing is identified as a priority technology for governments, with companies like NVIDIA actively investing in the sector. This trend is expected to enhance the commercialization process [3][9]. - Recommended stocks include leading domestic quantum computing firms such as Guoshun Quantum (国盾量子), which focuses on quantum security chips, and other companies like Tengjing Technology (腾景科技) and Huagong Technology (华工科技) that are involved in quantum technology projects [3][9]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent IPO guidance from Benyuan Quantum and a $1 billion Series E funding round for PsiQuantum, which has reached a valuation of $7 billion [8]. - NVIDIA's strategic investments in various quantum computing companies, including Quantinuum and QuEra Computing, indicate a diversified approach to harnessing quantum computing opportunities [8]. - The report notes that both domestic and international quantum computing enterprises are making strides in commercial applications, with advancements in sectors like weather forecasting and financial analysis [8].