1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market is affected by a small increase in crude oil prices, but the ample PTA spot and poor promotion results of downstream polyester filament lead to a slight weakening of the PTA spot basis. The domestic PTA production is rising as domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, and the PTA basis is dropping rapidly. OPEC+ will increase oil production again at the Sunday meeting. The downstream profits are significantly repaired, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91%. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) basis is weakening, and the upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant exerts pressure on the futures market. The arrival of overseas MEG plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery. The polyester inventory is in good condition, and the operating load of downstream weaving has increased [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Comparison - **INE Crude Oil and PTA-SC**: On September 9th, INE crude oil was 482.8 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1169.4 yuan/ton. On September 10th, INE crude oil rose to 486.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC dropped to 1164.7 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3333 to 1.3296 [2] - **CFR China PX and Related Indicators**: CFR China PX increased from 836 to 838, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 242 to 241 [2] - **PTA Indicators**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4678 yuan/ton to 4698 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 increased from 4605 to 4625, the 现货加工费 rose from 123.4 yuan/ton to 134.3 yuan/ton, and the 盘面加工费 increased from 196.4 yuan/ton to 202.3 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 19877 to 11842 [2] - **MEG Indicators**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4322 yuan/ton to 4319 yuan/ton, the MEG内盘 dropped from 4454 to 4439, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (111.77) to (110.96). The MEG主力基差 decreased from 136 to 118 [2] - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The PX开工率 remained at 82.59%, the PTA开工率 remained at 78.25%, the MEG开工率 remained at 60.74%, and the 聚酯负荷 increased slightly from 88.16% to 88.25% [2] - **Polyester Filament and Fiber Data**: For polyester filament, POY150D/48F decreased from 6805 to 6725, FDY150D/96F decreased from 7090 to 7025, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 8015. The 长丝产销 increased from 44% to 69%. For polyester short - fiber, 1.4D直纺涤短 remained at 6540, and the 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 55%. For polyester chips, the 半光切片 increased from 5755 to 5770, and the 切片产销 increased from 146% to 198% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The green polyester industry is on the verge of significant growth due to breakthroughs in new technologies that will expand the raw material base beyond bottle flakes, potentially opening up an additional 80 million tons of market space [1][2]. Industry Overview - The current processing level of the green polyester industry using physical methods is relatively mature, but it is limited to using bottle flakes as raw materials, primarily producing short fibers and bottle flakes [2]. - The annual production of polyester fibers is 79 million tons, with polyester bottle flakes accounting for approximately 32 million tons, representing about one-third of the total polyester production [1][2]. Technological Advancements - New technologies are expected to allow green polyester to completely replace virgin materials, thus significantly increasing the market potential [2]. - The recycling technology using biological methods is gaining attention, with companies like Carbios in France and Tianjin Yuantian Bio already making strides towards industrialization [3]. Market Dynamics - The polyester recycling system is relatively mature, with low-cost waste materials, which enhances the economic viability of developing new technologies [2]. - The flexibility of biological methods, which can produce recycled PTA and ethylene glycol, allows for broader applications beyond just polyester [3]. Investment Opportunities - Companies like WanKai New Materials and New Feng Ming are positioned well within the green polyester sector, with strategic investments and developments in bio-based materials [5][6]. - WanKai New Materials has established a forward-looking layout in both major development directions of green polyester and is expected to benefit from its parent company's investments [5]. - New Feng Ming, a leading polyester filament enterprise, is also investing in bio-based materials, positioning itself as a key player in the market [5]. Emerging Trends - The development of bio-based materials, such as the use of FDCA to replace PTA, is gaining traction, with significant investments from major players in the polyester supply chain [4]. - The commercialization of bio-based polyester applications is anticipated to accelerate, driven by clear application scenarios [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures price may have limited downside space. The spot price may remain firm in the short - term due to low inventory pressure on caustic soda enterprises and expected supply decline. Attention should be paid to the alumina plant's purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [2]. - The PVC futures price will continue to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pressure increases, and the demand has not improved. Although in the traditional peak season, the demand remains sluggish. The cost side provides some support [2]. Methanol Industry - On the supply side, inland maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in early September, and the import volume will still be large. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors are still weak. The port has been significantly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weak. The key is to focus on the inventory digestion rhythm [5]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the short - term imbalance of domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is abundant, while the demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation in factories [11]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price continued to fluctuate widely. The current oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums, but the upside space is restricted by the loose fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly observe on the long - short side and wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. The price has support at the low level, but the upside space of the rebound is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term shock between 6600 - 6900 [39]. - PTA: The supply - demand in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited. It is recommended to treat TA as a short - term shock between 4600 - 4800 and mainly conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spreads [39]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to slightly reduce inventory in September and enter the inventory accumulation channel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the support of EG01 at around 4300 and the EG1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [39]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak, following the raw material fluctuations. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [39]. - Bottle chips: In September, the supply and demand may both decrease, and the inventory is expected to increase. PR follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has limited upside space [39]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, the loss of PDH is intensifying, and the basis has weakened rapidly. For PE, the current maintenance is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term. The overall market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [49][51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The supply in September is lower than expected, and the demand support is weakening. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is driven by the strong oil price. BZ2603 is expected to follow styrene and fluctuate strongly [57]. - Styrene: The short - term drive is weak, but the supply - demand is expected to improve in the future. The price is supported by the oil price, but the rebound space is limited by high inventory. EB10 can be treated with low - buying on a rolling basis, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7200 and the spread expansion between EB11 - BZ11 [57]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: The spot prices of caustic soda and PVC remained stable on September 10, while the futures prices showed different degrees of changes. For example, SH2509 of caustic soda increased by 7.0%, and V2509 of PVC increased by 0.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate is expected to decline next week due to maintenance. The PVC supply has an upward expectation as some device maintenance is restored [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for caustic soda is expected to weaken, especially from the alumina industry. The PVC demand has not improved, and downstream product enterprises maintain a low operating rate [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the methanol futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.38%, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The port inventory increased by 8.59% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased, while some downstream operating rates decreased, such as the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates [5]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures price is running weakly. The spot prices in different regions showed little change on September 10 [11]. - **Supply**: The daily output of urea remains at a high level, and some maintenance devices are expected to resume production [11]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is for rigid procurement, resulting in insufficient total demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory increased, while the port inventory remained unchanged [11]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 11, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [44]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: According to EIA data, the U.S. crude oil production, refinery operating rate, and various inventory changes are shown in the report [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased slightly, while the prices of some downstream polyester products decreased, such as the polyester bottle chip price [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.9% [39]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory is at a low level, and the arrival volume in early September is moderately low [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed small changes, and the spot prices remained stable [49]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the PP device operating rate increased. The downstream weighted operating rates of both increased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased. The PP trader inventory increased [49]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene increased slightly, while the price of styrene remained stable [57]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products decreased, while the styrene operating rate increased [57]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——累库预期提前，估值供需承压 2025/09/10 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 1、本周计划到港14.33万吨，港口发货不佳，下周一港口库存预计累库3万吨左右，现货流动性预计将逐步放 松。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4200-4600 | 11.05% | 6.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 13.78% | 30.4% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 12.97% | 20.1% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 10.02% | 10.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak, with high supply and uncertain demand during the peak season. PTA's absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and its basis and processing fee repair drivers are limited. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The price of PX is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The caustic soda spot price may remain firm in the short term, while the decline space of the futures price is limited. The PVC market is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak, and it is expected to continue weak and volatile [5]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Geopolitical events increase the risk premium of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to expand spreads on the option side [9]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is expected to be loose, and its price is driven by oil prices. The short - term drive of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand in the future [14]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. The market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", with attention to the supply rhythm and seasonal demand [17]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures price is weak due to a loose supply - demand pattern and low market sentiment, with high supply and weak demand [21]. - **Methanol Industry**: The methanol supply is increasing, and the demand from traditional downstream is weak. The port is accumulating inventory, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [33]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, Brent crude oil (November) was $66.02/barrel, up 0.6%; CFR China PX was $836/ton, up 0.4% [2]. - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6805 yuan/ton, down 0.3%; its cash flow was 144 yuan/ton, down 3.7% [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.3%, up 1.0%; the operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, up 3.4% [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the market price of PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was 86.7%, up 1.5%; the total operating rate of PVC was 76.2%, up 3.9% [5]. - **Inventory**: On September 4, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories was 170,000 tons, down 7.8%; the total social inventory of PVC was 533,000 tons, up 2.1% [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 10, Brent crude oil was $66.70/barrel, up 0.47%; the spread between Brent M1 - M3 was $0.55/barrel, up 3.77% [9]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air - strike on Doha and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure support oil prices, while the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, CFR China pure benzene was $733/ton, down 0.1%; the price of pure benzene in East China was 5900 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [13]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China was 7110 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; the spread between EB - BZ spot was 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [14]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 77.9%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene was 79.7%, up 2.0% [14]. Polyolefin Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the closing price of L2601 was 7229 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the closing price of PP2601 was 6949 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of PE decreased last week, while that of PP increased. The operating rate of PP devices was 80.2%, up 2.6% [17]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the price of the main urea contract was 2398 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; the spread between UR - MA main contracts was - 756 yuan/ton, down 2.38% [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea is relatively high, and demand from agriculture, industry, and exports is weak [21]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of urea was 1095,000 tons, up 0.85%; the port inventory was 620,900 tons, up 3.48% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the closing price of MA2601 was 2398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between MA91 was - 151 yuan, up 9 yuan [33]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol was 341,083 tons, up 1 ton; the port inventory was 1428,000 tons, up 13 tons [33]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises was 74.21%, up 2%; the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices was 78.81%, up 0.2% [33].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester chain has not experienced the expected recovery during the traditional peak season, with prices of key products like PTA and MEG continuing to decline despite a temporary rebound in crude oil prices [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weak expectations on both supply and demand are key factors suppressing the market, with all segments of the polyester chain facing increased supply pressure due to new production capacity coming online [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate for the glycol market is at 75%, which is high compared to the same period in the last three years, indicating limited short-term supply increases [2][4] - Current inventory levels for PTA and MEG are not high, suggesting potential for price recovery if demand exceeds expectations during the peak season [5] Market Sentiment - The market's demand expectations are neutral, with no strong recovery observed during the peak season, and high inventory levels from previous demand surges are further delaying recovery [4][5] - The cash flow across various segments of the polyester chain remains under pressure, and good export performance is insufficient to support overall demand recovery [4] Future Outlook - The polyester chain is expected to face significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter, with short-term futures prices likely to experience downward pressure [6][7] - In the medium to long term, the polyester chain may see a valuation recovery in the first quarter of next year as new facilities come online and oil prices stabilize, contingent on inventory changes in glycol [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different product trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and seasonal demand changes. Attention should be paid to the balance of different product chains, oil price fluctuations, new capacity, and the rhythm of seasonal demand recovery [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Downstream cost pressure led to reduced demand, and production enterprises were more willing to offer discounts [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate in a low - level range. PE supply increased while demand entered the traditional peak season. PP supply was relatively loose, and actual demand recovery was slow [2] Pure Benzene - Domestic benzene continued to rebound, with improved low - price demand after a decline. In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve [3] - Styrene futures closed higher. Cost support was insufficient, and there was high inventory pressure at the terminal [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices stopped falling and fluctuated at a low level. Terminal demand was improving, and attention should be paid to the balance of PX - polyester and oil price fluctuations [5] - Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated at a low level. Supply and demand were intertwined, and there was resistance to further decline [5] - Short - fiber supply and demand were stable, and prices mainly fluctuated with costs. Positive hedging could be considered if demand improved [5] - Bottle - chip profits were passively repaired, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose. Supply increased significantly, and inventory continued to accumulate, but the market was expected to strengthen [6] - Urea market oscillated at a low level. Domestic production decreased, but was still high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of Indian tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Cost support was not obvious, and there was a game between low valuation and weak reality [7] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. There were regional differences, and the price was expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strong. The supply pressure was high, and long - term over - supply was expected. Short - selling at high rebounds was recommended [8] - Glass was strong. Spot prices continued to decline, but the price was expected to rise if the macro - sentiment improved [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Macro and Crude Oil News - OPEC+ may decide to increase oil production in October, potentially starting to lift the second-layer production cut plan with a reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. The market expected a 2 - 3 - month pause in production increase. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 is awaited [4]. - Trump hinted at imposing second and third - stage oil sanctions on Russia, and the US hopes Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy [4]. - Fed officials including Williams, Waller, and Kashkari indicated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates in response to rising risks in the job market and the current economic situation [4]. - The US added 54,000 ADP jobs in August, lower than the expected 65,000. The initial jobless claims last week increased to 237,000. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 policy meeting [5]. - The US Labor Day marks the end of the summer travel season, leading to a seasonal decline in gasoline consumption. As of August 29, the US daily crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels, down 16,000 barrels from the previous week but up 123,000 barrels from the same period last year. The commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.42 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.68 million barrels [6]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Prices | Type | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/28 | Week Change | Week - on - Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous (USD/barrel) | 63.3 | 64.27 | - 1 | - 1.51% | | Naphtha (USD/ton) | 592.5 | 593.88 | - 1.38 | - 0.23% | | PX511 (CNY/ton) | 6680 | 6886 | - 206 | - 2.99% | | PX CFR: Taiwan Province (CNY/ton) | 6780.87 | 6951.22 | - 170.35 | - 2.45% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4656 | 4792 | - 136 | - 2.84% | | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4615 | 4775 | - 160 | - 3.35% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 4357 | 4465 | - 108 | - 2.42% | | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 4456 | 4525 | - 69 | - 1.52% | | PF511 (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6526 | - 196 | - 3.00% | | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6450 | 6555 | - 105 | - 1.60% | | PR511 (CNY/ton) | 5820 | 5982 | - 162 | - 2.71% | | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5790 | 5860 | - 70 | - 1.19% | [8] Group 4: PX Supply - Domestic PX supply was stable this week. As of September 4, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (unchanged), and the weekly output was 709,800 tons (unchanged). Asian PX supply was also stable, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 74.46% (unchanged) [11]. - Next week, Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PX plants will be under maintenance, while Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant is planned to restart, and the PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11]. Group 5: PTA Supply and Inventory - This week, the overall domestic PTA supply decreased due to the co - existence of maintenance and restart of two sets of Taihua's plants and the supply reduction caused by the maintenance of Dushan Energy last week. As of September 4, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.48% (- 1.38 percentage points), and the weekly output was 1.2893 million tons (- 23,600 tons). Next week, Hengli Huizhou has a restart plan, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly [14]. - This week, PTA social inventory continued to decline. As of September 4, the available days of PTA in - plant inventory were 3.9 days (+ 0.09 days), the PTA inventory of polyester plants was 7.05 days (- 0.50 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.3795 million tons (- 152,600 tons) [14]. Group 6: Ethylene Glycol Supply and Inventory - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased as multiple plants increased their loads. As of September 4, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 67.45% (+ 2.34 percentage points), including 66.84% for integrated plants (+ 1.64 percentage points) and 68.34% for coal - based ethylene glycol plants (+ 3.46 percentage points), and the weekly output was 410,000 tons (+ 14,200 tons). Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants are planned to be under maintenance, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly next week [18]. - This week, the port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased. As of September 4, the total inventory in East China ports was 376,300 tons, down 36,900 tons from last Thursday and 13,300 tons from this Monday. Although the arriving goods will increase next week, the inland supply will decrease, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [18]. Group 7: Polyester Sector - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.33%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - This week, the inventory of polyester filament and staple fiber increased [22]. Group 8: Terminal Market - As of September 4, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.42% (+ 0.44), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.89 days (+ 1.17 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 26.59 days (- 0.32 days) [28]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply is recovering, but the overall pressure is not high. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has started, but the actual improvement in demand is limited. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the polyester sector will passively follow the cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting results and the impact of anti - involution sentiment [30]. - Medium - and long - term: The demand is expected to improve, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move up [31]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings include geopolitical situation changes, the OPEC+ meeting, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream plants [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices declined, weakening cost support for PTA. PTA supply was sufficient, downstream polyester filament sales were 42.67%, and the market lacked confidence, leading to a decline in PTA prices and a weakening basis [2]. - The price of ethylene glycol (MEG) rebounded slightly, and the spot market price followed suit with a slight increase, while the basis negotiation continued to strengthen [2]. - OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at Sunday's meeting. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weakness of benzene prices has inhibited the further increase of PX production to some extent. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%, domestic PTA plants have gradually returned, and domestic PTA production has increased [2]. - South Korea's naphtha cracking unit plans to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded, and the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially Saudi Arabian plants, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. This has also continuously boosted the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: On September 4, 2025, the INE crude oil price was 481.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 12.20 yuan from the previous day; the PTA - SC was 1160.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.66 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio was 1.3320, an increase of 0.0117; the PTA主力期价 was 4656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76.0 yuan; the PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4705 yuan; the spot processing fee was 88.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.4 yuan; the disk processing fee was 134.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.4 yuan; the main basis was (57), a decrease of 6.0; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 29742 [2]. - **MEG**: On September 4, 2025, the MEG主力期价 was 4357 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.0 yuan; the MEG - naphtha was (112.24) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price remained unchanged at 4435 yuan; the main basis was 88, an increase of 4.0 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - On September 4, 2025, the PX start - up rate was 82.59%, unchanged; the PTA start - up rate was 74.26%, unchanged; the MEG start - up rate was 60.68%, a decrease of 1.09%; the polyester load was 88.16%, an increase of 0.17% [2]. Polyester Product Situation - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6860 yuan, 7130 yuan, and 8035 yuan respectively on September 4, 2025. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also remained unchanged at 101 yuan, (129) yuan, and 76 yuan respectively. The sales rate of polyester filament was 43%, a decrease of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6575 yuan on September 4, 2025. The cash flow of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 166 yuan, and the sales rate was 39%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - glossy chips remained unchanged at 5795 yuan on September 4, 2025. The cash flow of chips remained unchanged at (64) yuan, and the sales rate was 49%, an increase of 3% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance on September 4, 2025, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to stop for maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].