Market Overview - On the first day of China's holiday, global markets experienced a rally, with U.S. stocks rising across the board and the dollar index surpassing the 100 level, while Bitcoin approached the $100,000 mark. In contrast, gold prices fell nearly $90, testing the $3,200 level. This indicates that the Chinese market missed out on a significant upward movement due to a global risk appetite recovery linked to China [1]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump expressed a high likelihood of reaching an agreement with China. The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett also conveyed optimism regarding progress on tariff issues. Reports indicated that the U.S. has been proactively engaging with China through various channels to negotiate tariff matters [2][3]. - Despite the positive sentiment, U.S. stock market movements suggested that the market had already priced in improvements in U.S.-China trade relations. Initial gains were followed by a gradual pullback, indicating a developing "news immunity" as the market became less responsive to repeated positive signals from Trump [3]. Interest Rate Expectations - A concerning development emerged as the market began to realize that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may have been overly optimistic. The probability of a rate cut in June dropped to 58% from 68%. Recent data showed a significant increase in initial jobless claims and a decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI, which should have reinforced the necessity for a rate cut. If the market fully unwinds its rate cut bets, liquidity could tighten rapidly, increasing funding costs and exerting pressure on the stock market, credit markets, and emerging markets [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On April 29, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. showed various values. For example, the US was 4.174, and there were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change in the US was - 0.229, and the one - year change was - 0.448 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of countries like the US, UK, and Germany also had specific values on April 29, 2025. For example, the US was 3.836, with corresponding changes over different time frames. The latest change in the US was - 0.030, and the one - year change was - 1.190 [3]. - **US Dollar to Major Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates**: On April 29, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against currencies such as the South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the exchange rate against the South African rand was 5.621, and the latest change was - 0.60% [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ had specific closing values on April 29, 2025, with corresponding percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 5560.830, and the latest change was 0.58% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, had specific values and changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 0.20% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had specific closing prices and percentage changes on April 29, 2025. For example, the A - share closed at 3286.65 with a - 0.05% change [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.30 with a - 0.02环比 change [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums and their环比 changes of some indices were provided. For example, the risk premium of the S&P 500 was 0.03 with a 0.01环比 change [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in the A - share, main board, etc. were given. For example, the latest fund flow in the A - share was - 36.66, and the 5 - day average was - 402.32 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10220.83 with a - 342.26环比 change [4]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and amplitude of the IF, IH, and IC contracts were provided. For example, the basis of the IF contract was - 50.28 with an amplitude of - 1.33% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 on April 29, 2025 were presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 109.120 with a 0.06% change [5]. - The money market rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes were given. For example, R001 was 1.5864% with a - 20.00 BP daily change [5].

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...

在金融市场上，对美国特朗普政府政策操作的过度警惕感逐渐缓解。上周，美国股票、债券和货 币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参与者仍然没有放松紧 张情绪，认为抛售美国可能复燃。本周（4月28日开始的一周）将公布美国就业指标的结果，根 据内容，市场的平静可能会被打破。 上周的外汇市场上，4月以来持续的美元贬值趋势得到了遏制。代表美元对主要货币综合实力 的"美元指数"4月21日从约三年来的底部——97区间，恢复到了99区间。 在交易货币买卖权利的货币期权市场上，应对日元升值和美元贬值的趋势正在缓解。反映各货币 对美元买权需求和卖权需求哪个更大的"风险逆转(Risk Reversal,1个月指标)"在4月25日为-1.5% 以下。自4月3日以来，负值最小。负值越大，表明日元买权需求越大，日元升值警惕感越强。4 月11日，负值一度达到-3.5%以下，这是自2024年8月金融市场混乱以来的最大负值。 金融市场对特朗普的 猜疑没有消失（Reuters） 美国股票、债券和货币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参 与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪。美国经济是导致美国股债汇"三 ...

早盘速递 2025/4/29 热点资讯 重点关注 原油、沪金、燃油、焦煤、PTA、沪铜 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.78% 贵金属, 29.74% 油脂油料, 12.55% 软商品, 2.87% 有色, 18.59% 煤焦钢矿, 13.50% 能源, 2.53% 化工, 12.50% 谷物, 2.03% 农副产品, 2.92% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 W ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from April 21st to April 25th, 2025, the overall market sentiment recovered due to the softened stances of US President Trump on tariff policies and the Federal Reserve. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fluctuated weakly. In China, the stock market performed strongly, the bond market was weak, and commodities closed higher for the week. The actual implementation of US tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain key factors, and important US data releases during the May Day holiday may impact short - term asset prices [3][6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - In the week from April 21st to April 25th, equity assets rebounded due to the Trump administration's conciliatory signals. US stocks led the gains, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to decline weekly. Regionally, in the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.23% weekly; in the European market, MSCI Europe rose 2.95% weekly; in the American market, MSCI US rose 4.69% weekly [8][11][13]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to decline weekly. Market expectations of a US dollar interest rate cut in June increased. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 5BP to 4.29% [15]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index stopped falling and stabilized weekly. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar showed mixed movements, and the RMB exchange rate was slightly stronger with fluctuations. The US dollar index rose 0.36% for the week [16]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Crude oil fundamentals remained weak, and international oil prices declined weekly. International gold prices first rose and then fell due to volatile safe - haven demand. Prices of major industrial products and agricultural products showed mixed movements [18]. 3.2 Domestic Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - The domestic stock market continued to rebound, but the performance of major A - share broad - based indices was divergent. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, the North Exchange 50 index fell 2.16% weekly. In terms of sectors, the automobile, power equipment, and new energy sectors rose, while the food and beverage sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56% for the week [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The domestic bond market was weak. The central bank's net open - market operation injection was 77.4 billion yuan, and the capital market remained stable overall. Generally, corporate bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [23]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, the oilseeds and oils sector led the gains [25]. 3.3 Asset Price Outlook - The actual implementation of US tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy are still important factors. The release of important US data such as non - farm payrolls during the May Day holiday may impact short - term asset prices [28].

Group 1 - The domestic stock indices showed mixed performance last week, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index changing by 0.38%, -0.33%, and 0.56% respectively, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index increased by 1.20%, 1.85%, and 1.74% respectively [2][9] - The style indices also exhibited mixed results, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stability style indices changing by 0.21%, 2.44%, 0.24%, 1.41%, and 0.73% respectively [2][9] - The trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 52.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.68 billion yuan from the previous week, with large-cap style ETFs accounting for 24.49 billion yuan and small-cap style ETFs for 28.62 billion yuan [2][28] Group 2 - Among the 32 thematic ETFs, the average weekly change was 0.56%, with large-cap style ETFs averaging 0.21% and small-cap style ETFs averaging 0.83% [3][29] - The top three performing comprehensive ETFs were the ChiNext 50, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 ETFs, with changes of 2.77%, 2.24%, and 1.89% respectively, while the bottom three were the SSE 50 ETF, CSI 300 ETF, and another CSI 300 ETF, with changes of -0.37%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively [4][34] - In terms of fund flows, small-cap ETFs like the CSI 1000 saw continued inflows, while large-cap ETFs such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 experienced outflows [4][34] Group 3 - The bond market saw the Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bonds increase by 0.85%, while the pure bond index rose across the board with changes of 0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.03% for government bonds, corporate bonds, and local government bonds respectively [17][19] - The commodity market experienced an overall increase, with CRB metal, poultry, and industrial spot prices rising by 2.69%, 1.97%, and 1.92% respectively [20][21] - The overseas ETF market showed positive performance with the NASDAQ ETF, H-shares ETF, and Hang Seng ETF increasing by 4.31%, 3.09%, and 3.23% respectively [43]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the imminent crisis of U.S. sovereign credit and debt, suggesting that the U.S. debt situation resembles a Ponzi scheme on the verge of collapse, with significant implications for global economic stability and trade [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [3][4]. - The report predicts that by 2025, the U.S. may face a debt crisis, with approximately $9.3 trillion of public debt maturing, representing one-third of total debt [3][4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed military spending for the first time in fiscal year 2024, with interest expenses expected to grow by 8% to $952 billion in 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Policies - Trump's policies, including "reciprocal tariffs" and extreme fiscal tightening, have led to a significant rise in one-year inflation expectations to 4.3%, the highest level in nearly two years, and a drop in consumer confidence to 67.8, down 11.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - The combination of tariffs and tax cuts is expected to exacerbate social inequality, with the lowest 20% of earners facing an average annual loss of $1,125, while the top 1% could gain an average of $43,500 annually [1][3]. Group 3: Global Financial System and Dollar Dependency - There is a growing trend of "de-dollarization," with global central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, leading to a decline in the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [5][6]. - The report indicates that the collapse of U.S. debt is not the end of the international financial system but rather the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with emerging economies and a multipolar currency system reshaping the order [6][7]. Group 4: Recommendations for China - The report suggests that China should proactively lead global cooperation to mitigate the risks associated with U.S. debt, including establishing a monitoring mechanism for U.S. debt defaults and enhancing financial infrastructure [6][7]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its foreign reserves, increase holdings in gold and emerging market assets, and enhance domestic consumption to counteract global demand shrinkage [6][7].

据金融界报道，特朗普政府无视国际规则，肆意破坏国际经贸秩序，近日疯狂对中国提高关税。美国白宫官员证实，美 国对中国进口商品征收的关税税率目前实际上已达145%。面对美国单边霸凌胁迫的做法，中国坚定捍卫自身合法权益。 据最新消息，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自近日起对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率由84%提高至125%。鉴 于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理 会。 最近，中美贸易摩擦逐渐进入高潮，美副总统的一句"乡巴佬"暴露了美国骨子里的傲慢和优越，也揭露了美国为什么如 此执着于要让中国先低头认输。然而，市场不给美国继续装腔作势的机会了，连日来，美股震荡、美债收益率上升、物 价飙涨、大宗产品出口额暴跌，使得美国不得不尽快调整关税政策，并在贸易谈判中取得成果。这一周，美国接连退了 好几步，不仅宣布对部分国家暂缓90天实施"对等关税"，还对高达3000多亿美元的商品实施了关税减免 毕竟现在中国手中的筹码太多了，近日美国财政部公布的数据显示，2025年2月，美债前三大海外债主日本、中国、英国 均增持美国国债。美国财政部2025年2月国际资本流动 ...

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨和佳 "她那时候还太年轻，不知道所有命运赠送的礼物，早已在暗中标好了价码。" 1 9 3 2年，著名作家斯蒂芬·茨威格在《断头王后》中对玛丽·安托 瓦内特的命运唏嘘不已。 美元头上的王冠，象征着荣耀，也意味着责任，但滥用会遭遇"反噬"，恰如"断头王后"的坠落。 随着美国总统特朗普"对等关税"引爆世界对 美国的"信任危机"，美债的地位岌岌可危，一场抛售潮席卷而至，滥用优势的苦果开始显现。 在特朗普对世界推出百年未见的高关税后，短短数日， 美债市场已然"变天"。 上周避险情绪一度推动美债大涨，而到了本周，美债连日暴 跌。4月7日，1 0年期美债收益率飙升1 6个基点，8日再度大涨1 3个基点。4月9日，1 0年期美债收益率一度升破4 . 5%关口，较4月4日3 . 8 6%的 低位暴涨逾6 0个基点，3 0年期美债收益率更是直冲5%关口。 " 美债市场正在崩溃 "，4月9日，欧洲太平洋资本（Eu r o Pa c ifi c Ca p it a l）CEO兼首席全球策略师彼得·希夫（Pe t e r Sc h iff）在社交媒体上 发出警告。 但尴尬的是，在特朗普关税政策的通胀效应下，美联储 ...