纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1253 | -3 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1086 | -16 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 167 | 13 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 921926 | -52098 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1168598 | 67333 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -333439 | -10162 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -241904 | -2357 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2790 | 468 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1700 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -77 | 1 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -122 | -15 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 54 | 65 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 67 | 66 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook on the consumption building materials sector, particularly waterproof materials with lower profit baselines [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The consumption building materials sector is entering a low baseline peak season in Q3 2024, with expectations for improved monthly high-frequency data and quarterly profit forecasts compared to H1 2024 [2][5]. - The cement and glass sectors are anticipated to experience price rebounds post mid-August, with potential supply changes during the September military parade providing price elasticity opportunities [2][5]. - Specific companies such as Puyang Nair and Reborn Technology are highlighted for their strategic acquisitions and market positioning, which are expected to enhance their profitability and competitive advantages [3][6][7]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability ahead of revenue growth, with a focus on cost reduction and price stabilization [15][16]. - Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Rabbit Baby are noted for their strong cash flow and dividend performance, with market expectations for net profits in 2025 at approximately 20 million and 7.5 million respectively [16][17]. Cement - The cement market is currently experiencing a price decline, with a 0.3% drop noted, but is expected to stabilize as demand shows signs of improvement [19][43]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards limiting overproduction, with policies aimed at stabilizing supply and improving profitability [19][21]. Glass - The float glass market is under pressure with declining prices and increased inventory, but there is potential for recovery as supply-side adjustments take place [27][29]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are projected to face a 30-40% decline in net profit for 2024, but maintain a healthy balance sheet and competitive positioning [29][35]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - The fiberglass market is experiencing a split in production and sales, with larger manufacturers benefiting from high-end product demand while smaller firms struggle [36][39]. - The carbon fiber sector is seeing a recovery in wind power demand, which is expected to improve profitability in the coming quarters [40].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production in China shows divergence, with raw material production demonstrating relative resilience[1] - Daily pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, while steel and construction material production and apparent demand have marginally declined[1] - The operating rates for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products have recovered, while cement clinker capacity utilization remains stable compared to last week[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 18.4% year-on-year as of August 1, 2025, with a 19.3% decline in July compared to the previous month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month-on-month as of July 21, 2025[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - National retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-27, 2025, reached 1.445 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year, while the total market for July is estimated at around 1.85 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 18.5% year-on-year as of July 25, 2025[1] - Daily movie box office revenue averaged 230 million yuan, a 27.9% increase year-on-year, with a government subsidy program in Beijing to encourage attendance[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of July 27, 2025, with container throughput up by 5.6%[1] - South Korea's export value grew by 5.9% year-on-year in July, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from June[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 3.8%, with the black raw materials index down by 5.6%[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 4.6%, while spot prices decreased by 2.3%; coking coal futures fell by 13.2%, but spot prices rose by 1.2%[1]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [2] - The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 5,178 million heavy boxes, down 156 million heavy boxes from last week and down 1,025 million heavy boxes from the same period in 2024 [2] - The market for electronic glass fiber remains stable, with mainstream prices for G75 products at 8,800-9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - The construction materials sector saw a decline of 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the Wind All A Index declined by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [1] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to improved supply-demand balance and potential policy support, with leading companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement recommended for investment [5][6] - The glass fiber market is anticipated to benefit from technological upgrades and increased demand in high-end applications, with companies like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.49%, gaining 119 points to close at 24,627 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.93%. The morning trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 126.5 billion [1] Group 2: Gold Stocks - Gold stocks experienced a collective rise due to weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which led to a significant rebound in gold prices. Analysts suggest that interest rate cut expectations are supporting gold prices. Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 4%, Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) increased by 8.7%, and Shandong Gold (01787) saw an 8.8% rise. Laopu Gold (06181) rebounded by 5.5% after a profit warning, with Morgan Stanley predicting strong performance in the second half of the year [1] Group 3: Semiconductor Stocks - Semiconductor stocks led the gains, driven by regulatory concerns over H20 safety risks and the acceleration of domestic AI computing chip production. Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) rose by 6.46%, Shanghai Fudan (01385) increased by 5.92%, and SMIC (00981) gained 2.8%. InnoCare Pharma (02577) surged over 12% following a partnership with NVIDIA to promote the large-scale implementation of 800 VDC power architecture in AI data centers [1] Group 4: Healthcare Sector - Zhaoke Ophthalmology-B (06622) rose over 7% after its drug Mephalan received orphan drug designation from the U.S. FDA [2] Group 5: Company Performance - Juxing Legend (06683) increased by 4% as the company launched a collaboration plan with numerous trendy artists and formed a strategic partnership with Yushu Technology. China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) rose by 4.3%, supported by verified profit releases from domestic shipbuilding companies and strong new ship order reserves at Huangpu Wenchong [3] - Xinyi Glass (00868) fell over 3% post-earnings due to a continuous decline in the average selling price of float glass products, resulting in a 59.6% year-on-year drop in mid-term net profit [4] - China Resources Medical (01515) dropped by 15.8% after issuing a profit warning, expecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% to 25% in mid-term profit attributable to shareholders [5]

Group 1 - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][3] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The construction materials sector (SW) decreased by 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [2] - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [3] - The domestic non-alkali roving market price is stable, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 3200 to 3700 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week [3] Group 3 - The real estate industry has shown signs of recovery, with the added value of the real estate sector turning positive, indicating a clearing in the supply chain [4][5] - The cement and glass industries are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from demand recovery and industry consolidation [5][6] - The glass fiber market is expected to see growth in high-end products due to technological advancements and increased demand in sectors like wind power and new energy vehicles [7][8] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a supply-side contraction, which is expected to improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9] - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, which will positively impact the home improvement and building materials market [10][11] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from national subsidy policies are recommended for investment [11]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,507 points, down 265 points or 1.1%[1] - Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3,559 points, down 13 points or 0.37%[2] - S&P 500 Index fell by 101 points or 1.6%, closing at 6,238 points[3] Economic Indicators - PBOC conducted a 126 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[2] - China's July manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, below expectations[2] - U.S. July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below expectations[3] Sector Performance - A-share indices showed mixed performance with military and brokerage stocks declining, while traditional Chinese medicine and photovoltaic sectors rose[2] - BYD reported July production of 317,892 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%[5] - Xinyi Glass reported a 9.7% decline in revenue to 9.821 billion RMB for the six months ending June[5] OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, totaling approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with the PMI showing a decline. The market is awaiting new policies to stimulate demand [4] - The report highlights that the cement market is facing challenges due to adverse weather conditions, leading to a low average shipment rate of less than 45% in key regions. However, the overall price decline has slowed down, indicating potential stabilization in the near term [11][18] - The report suggests that the supply-side consensus on self-discipline within the industry is strengthening, which may lead to better profitability compared to the previous year [11] - The report recommends focusing on cyclical industries that may benefit from policy support, particularly in cement and glass sectors, and highlights specific companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others as potential investment opportunities [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has seen a decline of 2.31% in the past week, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The report notes that the cement price is currently at 339.7 RMB/ton, down 1.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 42.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [19][20] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The average cement shipment rate is reported at 44.7%, with a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week, but a decrease of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [26] - The report anticipates that cement prices will stabilize in the short term, despite current weak demand [11][18] 2.2 Glass - The average price of float glass is reported at 1295.3 RMB/ton, which is an increase of 56.7 RMB/ton from the previous week but a decrease of 175.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [4] - The report indicates that the glass industry is expected to see a supply-side contraction, which may improve the supply-demand balance in the short to medium term [14] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report highlights that the market for electronic fiberglass products is evolving, with a clear trend towards high-end products, which are expected to see increased penetration and value growth [12] - The profitability of ordinary fiberglass remains resilient, with ongoing demand in sectors like wind power and thermoplastics [12] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report discusses the impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, particularly in the housing market, which is expected to improve the outlook for construction materials [15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that are exploring new business models and enhancing their supply chain efficiency [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract price dropping by 121 yuan/ton, while the spot market initially rose before stabilizing, resulting in an average weekly price increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. Supply Side - The industry saw slight adjustments in operating rates and production due to the ignition of previously idled production lines, with inventory decreasing by 3.87% from last week, indicating ongoing destocking but at a reduced pace [2]. Demand Side - Some manufacturers adjusted their pricing, which provided some market support; however, the enthusiasm for procurement from downstream sectors has waned compared to earlier periods, leading to a slight decline in market transaction focus as the weekend approached [3]. Technical Analysis - The glass 09 contract experienced significant declines, with a weekly closing price down 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.1%, effectively reversing all gains from the previous week. The trading volume saw a substantial reduction, indicating a rapid exit of capital following the price drop, and open interest sharply decreased, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [4]. - The technical indicators show a complete bearish arrangement, with prices consistently breaking through key support levels and operating along the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a strong downward trend [4]. Market Outlook - On the fundamental side, supply-demand imbalances have been somewhat alleviated, with some manufacturers still planning price increases; however, after a phase of inventory replenishment, companies are primarily focused on digesting existing stock, with market demand driven mainly by essential purchases [4]. - Technically, the market exhibits characteristics of a confirmed bearish trend, with concerns over low demand and high supply potentially exerting long-term pressure. Without clear favorable policies, the market is unlikely to reverse its weak trend, with attention needed on the effectiveness of the 1100 yuan/ton support level [4].