Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's bull market does not guarantee profits for all industries, as there is significant divergence in performance among sectors, with some industries outperforming the market while others lag behind [1] Historical Bull Market Analysis - Historical data from the last decade indicates that each bull market's leading sectors are closely aligned with the prevailing development trends of the era [1] - In the 2005-2006 bull market, industries such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and real estate benefited from urbanization and economic reforms [1] - The 2014-2015 bull market saw a rise in TMT sectors due to the emergence of smart manufacturing and new consumption trends, alongside a stimulus-driven infrastructure boom [1] - Post-2019, sectors like liquor and pharmaceuticals thrived due to consumption upgrades, while the "dual carbon" policy led to a surge in carbon-neutral industries [1][2] Industry Performance in Bull Markets - The analysis of the top 10 performing industries in each bull market reveals that machinery, building materials, and defense industries consistently ranked high, with significant gains even in years they did not make the top 10 [3] ETF Investment Strategies - **Machinery Sector**: The machinery sector, particularly in engineering and robotics, has maintained high performance. The Tianhong CSI Robotics ETF (159770) has a significant scale of over 7 billion, indicating strong market interest [4] - **Defense Industry**: The defense sector has shown consistent high performance across all four major bull markets from 2000 to 2021, with ETFs like Guotai CSI Defense ETF (512660) and Fuguo CSI Defense Leaders ETF (512710) exceeding 10 billion in scale [6] - **Building Materials**: The building materials sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and supply adjustments, with ETFs like Guotai CSI All-Index Building Materials ETF (159745) showing scale advantages [7]

在A股市场沪指创出十年新高的时刻，权益类基金再次成为投资者关注的焦点。Wind数据显示，过去十 年间（2015年8月20日至2025年8月20日），全市场1053只权益类基金（仅统计主代码）中，正收益产品 数量占据绝对主流，共有958只收益为正，占比超过90%，仅有95只收益为负，体现了主动权益基金在 长期维度上创造超额收益的能力。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 近十年累计单位 净值增长率 | 今年以来回报 | 成立以来回报 | 基金规模 | 基金经理 | 基金成立日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | (%) | ((2) | | | | 1 | 166301.OF | 华商新趋势优选 | 456.21 | 25.10 | 435.29 | 44.69 | 章文 | 2015/5/14 | | 2 | 000628.OF | 大成高鑫A | 373.82 | 10.82 | 400.83 | 179.16 | 刘旭 | 2015/2/3 | | 3 | 001437.OF | ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts in September and inject significant liquidity into the global market has become a central focus of the current global capital markets [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Global risk appetite has been rising, with major stock markets showing an upward trend [2][9]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, briefly surpassing 3700 points, driven by gains in the TMT sector and non-bank financials [9][27]. - A-shares are experiencing a liquidity boost, with average daily trading volume rising to the 74.80th percentile since 2015 [13][15]. Group 2: Economic Data and Trends - Recent economic data in China showed mixed results, indicating that the domestic economic fundamentals need to be solidified despite a generally improving trend [9][10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, addressing the current supply surplus and enhancing industrial capacity utilization [9][10]. - Short-term economic slowdown does not alter the long-term improvement trend, with A-share profitability expected to reach an inflection point [10][27]. Group 3: Leverage and Market Dynamics - Margin financing has accelerated, with the balance surpassing 2 trillion yuan, approaching levels seen during the liquidity-driven bull market of 2015 [15][18]. - The current leverage ratio is around 51% of the A-share market capitalization, indicating room for growth compared to historical peaks [15][18]. - Historical analysis shows that previous bull markets were driven by liquidity improvements before earnings began to recover, suggesting a similar pattern may emerge [18][20]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The military industry is experiencing a notable uptrend, with significant trading volumes and expectations for performance improvements as key events approach [25][26]. - The military sector's recent performance is driven by factors such as geopolitical stimuli and upcoming policy clarifications related to the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [25][26]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to release substantial liquidity globally, with sectors like artificial intelligence, brokerage firms, and innovative pharmaceuticals likely to become short-term focal points in the A-share market [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the US interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks may exhibit better resilience than US stocks, benefiting from improved liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on TMT, energy, and telecommunications sectors [1] - The current market is primarily characterized by stagflation trading, with a shift towards easing trading scenarios and recession trading scenarios, leading to significant gains in Hong Kong stocks, which are close to the gains seen in easing trading [1] - Before inflation concerns ease, sectors like TMT and energy in Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform, mainly due to incremental investments from fiscal and tariff negotiations [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on technology-related Hong Kong listed companies traded through Stock Connect, covering sectors such as information technology, electronic components, and interactive media and services [1] - The index selects 30 stocks that meet the Stock Connect criteria and have high market capitalization, emphasizing the hardware and application aspects of the artificial intelligence industry chain to reflect the overall performance of AI infrastructure-related listed companies [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) and Initiated Link A (015739) [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently influenced by expectations of liquidity easing, with high anticipation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, leading to a strong performance in global stock markets [1] - Domestic stock markets are experiencing an upward trend due to structural interest rate reductions, such as subsidies for personal consumption loans, and policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including "anti-involution" measures and birth subsidies [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached new highs, surpassing the 2021 peak, while the Shenzhen Component Index is in a recovery phase, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The trading volume in the market has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week, with a significant number of stocks rising, particularly in the TMT sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the upper boundary of a weekly trading range, which has now turned from a resistance level to a support level, indicating a bullish trend [2] - There is a need to monitor for signs of volume stagnation as trading volume approaches 3 trillion yuan, which could indicate potential market corrections [2]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is showing steady improvement, with positive factors gradually increasing, indicating a trend towards high-quality economic development [1] Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, reflecting a significant increase in confidence among social entities [1] - The wealth effect from the rise in A-shares this year has partially offset the downward pressure on housing prices, aiding in the gradual recovery of residents' balance sheets [1] Government Policy and Spending - Government spending remains robust, providing strong support for economic stabilization, with net financing of government bonds in social financing continuing to grow significantly [1] - The focus of government spending is directed towards consumption, infrastructure investment, and livelihood expenditures [1] Monetary Indicators - The M1 growth rate increased by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month to 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity in the economy [1] Policy Effects - The effects of the "Two New" policies and "anti-involution" policies are gradually becoming evident, with signs of marginal improvement in prices [1] - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, the highest level since March 2024 [1] Sectoral Investment - There is a notable acceleration in the transition between old and new growth drivers, with high-intensity investment in emerging sectors such as aerospace and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, with clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, and southbound funds are enhancing their marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the IT sector showing substantial gains, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on leading companies in the technology sector available through the Stock Connect [1] - The index emphasizes market capitalization, R&D intensity, and revenue growth quality in its constituent stock selection, covering TMT (Media, Computer, Internet, Electronics) and automotive industries [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, with clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, and the marginal pricing power of southbound funds in the Hong Kong market is increasing, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong recently, with the IT sector showing substantial gains, driven by improved market sentiment and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which selects leading companies in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and automotive sectors [1] - The index focuses on companies with high market capitalization, significant R&D investment, and rapid revenue growth, covering sectors such as electronics and the internet to reflect the overall performance of technology companies listed in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the accelerated commercialization of AI and the continuous inflow of southbound funds, with clear signs of valuation recovery [1] - The AI technology and new consumption sectors have significant growth potential, and the marginal pricing power of southbound funds in the Hong Kong stock market is increasing, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The medium to long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive due to its valuation advantages and the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading, with the technology and consumption sectors likely to continue rising under dual support from policies and funds [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on TMT (including media, computers, internet, electronics) and the automotive industry, selecting large-cap technology leaders listed on the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link C (015740) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Positive factors for the economy are gradually accumulating, but structural issues remain evident. The full - year economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half, yet the 5% annual target is achievable, and the momentum of high - quality economic development is expected to be further consolidated [6]. - Although the macro - economic data in July did not show an obvious turning point, positive factors are gradually piling up, which is conducive to the improvement of market risk appetite. Different investment suggestions are given for the equity, bond, and commodity markets [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 7 - month Economic Overview - Positive factors for the economy are increasing, including the potential repair of the household balance sheet, high - intensity government spending, increased capital activation, marginal improvement in prices, accelerated transformation of new and old drivers, and the likely passing of the period of greatest tariff disturbances [7]. - Some economic indicators need improvement, such as the continuous drag of the real estate sector, uncertainties in overseas demand, the need to consolidate endogenous economic momentum, and the obvious divergence between volume and price with profit growth yet to improve [8]. 2. Interpretation of 7 - month Economic Sub - item Data - Fixed - asset investment growth continued to decline. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate development investment showing different trends. High - tech investment remained prosperous [9]. - Consumption growth declined slightly. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous value. The replacement of consumer goods provided some support [10]. - Exports still showed short - term resilience, but uncertainties were increasing. In July, China's export amount increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars. However, the "export - rush" effect may lead to an "overdraft effect" in the second half of the year [11]. - Real estate sales continued to fluctuate at a low level. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing and the completion of real estate development investment both widened. Second - hand housing prices did not stop falling [12]. - The production side remained highly prosperous. In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year in real terms. Manufacturing was the core support, and new and old drivers were accelerating the transformation [13]. - There were marginal improvements in the July price data. The CPI was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing [15][16]. - The structure of social financing remained poor. In July, the incremental social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the core support. The new RMB loans in the social financing caliber decreased, and the effective credit demand of residents and enterprises still needed improvement [17]. - The profit growth of industrial enterprises was significantly dragged down by prices. From January to June, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 5.3% real GDP growth in the first half of the year [19]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Policy - making will reasonably control the intensity and rhythm of policies and reserve some policy space. The necessity of introducing large - scale incremental policies in the second half of the year has decreased [20]. - The full - year economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to decline at a low level, consumption still has some resilience, and exports need to be vigilant against the impact of tariffs and the "export - overdraft" effect [21]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: Maintain the view that the index will fluctuate strongly, the investment error - tolerance rate will increase, and actively participate in the A - share market. Focus on low - absorption rotation opportunities in high - prosperity sectors, such as the "anti - involution" direction, the Fed rate - cut direction, sectors with expected mid - year report outperformance, and the technology and self - controllable direction [22][23]. - Bond market: The macro - economic fundamentals do not currently support a bond - market reversal. The yield of 10 - year government bonds may fluctuate around 1.7%, waiting for clearer signals from the economic fundamentals and policies [24]. - Commodity market: The prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range shock trend until the economic fundamentals give clear feedback signals [25].