Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Entertainment and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251106: Weak Cost Support, Hold Short Positions in Stainless Steel [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: On November 5, the main nickel contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 123,448 lots (+577), and the open interest was 115,164 lots (-3,296). LME nickel fell 0.40%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased. The supply side showed that nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel pig iron plants' losses deepened, and production decreased in November, while Indonesian production increased. Nickel pig iron inventories tightened. In November, domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals were weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: On November 5, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 90,380 lots (-21,042), and the open interest was 74,412 lots (-1,663). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900). On the supply side, stainless steel production decreased in November, and 300-series production was basically flat. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices fell, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat. Overall, the fundamentals were loose, cost support was weak, and stainless steel was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts on November 5 showed various changes compared to the previous day and two weeks ago. For example, the near-month contract closed at 119,720 yuan/ton (+330), the continuous first contract at 120,030 yuan/ton (+330), etc. [2] - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and imported nickel also changed. For instance, SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 120,950 yuan/ton (-850) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts on November 5 also changed. For example, the near-month contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton (0), the continuous first contract at 12,535 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of different types of stainless steel products such as 304/2B coils and 316L/2B coils decreased. For example, 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 17,950 yuan/ton (-500) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900) [2]. Group 4: Industry News - EU Investigation: The European Commission announced an in - depth investigation into MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The deal, worth about $500 million, involves two nickel - iron mines and two Brazilian construction projects. The investigation aims to address concerns about potential impacts on the EU stainless steel industry's competitiveness and raw material prices. The deadline for the adjustment phase is March 20, 2026 [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt stated that its precursor business can achieve full self - supply of nickel raw materials. The Indonesian Pomalaa project is expected to be completed and put into production next year. The company will focus on upstream resource development and overseas material capacity layout to enhance self - supply and competitiveness [2]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price cannot effectively break through the support level, take profit and wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The long - term shutdown of the US government has increased short - term concerns about market liquidity, which mainly has a short - term impact. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the supply situation in non - US regions has been alleviated to some extent. The demand for refined copper has been affected by high prices, but the downstream procurement demand has increased after the price decline [2][5] - The supply and demand of alumina are still in a significant surplus. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts have not occurred, and the import window is open. New projects are progressing smoothly, putting pressure on prices [13] - The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity, but the supply - demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum is still tight. Overseas production cuts have intensified supply concerns, and domestic consumption shows resilience, so the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - The US government shutdown has a short - term impact on the market. The supply of casting aluminum alloy is tight, raw material costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise and hard to fall [29] - The domestic zinc smelter's winter storage scale has expanded, and the profit margin of smelters has been narrowed. The consumption peak season is over, but the opening of the export window will relieve the oversupply situation [36] - Some domestic lead - storage enterprises have reduced production, while the supply side is expected to increase. Considering the supply increase and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the lead price may decline [41] - The LME nickel inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the supply - demand is still loose. The nickel price is in a wide - range shock with a downward - moving center [46] - The terminal demand for stainless steel is not optimistic, and the supply is sufficient. The cost support is not strong, so the price trend is weak [49] - The Fed has differences on interest rate cuts, and the dollar index has reached a new high. The tin ore supply is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. The tin price is in a weak shock [57] - In November, the demand for industrial silicon has weakened, and the supply has been reduced. The price has limited downward and upward space, and it is more cost - effective to buy at low prices [61] - In November, the supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased, and the supply reduction is greater. The spot price has no upward momentum in the short term, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - In November, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have tightened, and the price may rebound after a short - term decline. It is advisable to arrange short positions after the rebound [74] Group 3: Summary by Industry Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The spot price returned to the 85,000 yuan/ton level, and the downstream replenishment increased [1] - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter, and some mining companies have adjusted their production plans [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors and supply - demand situations affect the copper market. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has been affected by high prices [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 decreased by 3 yuan to 2,772 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [7] - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum plants purchased alumina, and some alumina enterprises had production adjustments due to environmental factors. New projects are in progress [8][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus and factors such as production cuts and new projects affect the price [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 decreased by 85 yuan to 21,395 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown affected market liquidity, the LME planned to formulate rules, and some aluminum plants had production adjustments [17][18] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown affected the price, but the supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price is expected to rise after corrections [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Choose the opportunity to go long on SHFE aluminum and short on LME aluminum; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [20][21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2512 decreased by 120 to 20,795 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined [24] - **Related Information**: The US - China tariff adjustment and economic data were released, and the US government shutdown affected market liquidity [24][27] - **Trading Logic**: The US government shutdown has a short - term impact. The supply is tight, costs are rising, and demand is improving, making the price easy to rise [29] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 decreased by 0.15% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The spot market had active trading among traders [32] - **Related Information**: Some mining companies' zinc production data changed [33][34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: The smelter's winter storage and profit situation, consumption season, and export window affect the market [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions; Arbitrage: Arrange to buy SHFE zinc and sell LME zinc; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 increased by 0.17% to 17,475 yuan/ton. The spot market had different trading attitudes among holders and downstream enterprises [39] - **Related Information**: A lead - zinc mine obtained a production license [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The production situation of lead - storage enterprises and the supply - side situation affect the price [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [42][43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 290 to 120,030 yuan/ton. The spot premiums changed [45] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the nickel price and production situation in Indonesia changed [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory and supply - demand situation affect the price, which is in a wide - range shock [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 35 to 12,535 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [49] - **Important Information**: India relaxed the import restrictions on stainless steel [49] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand and supply situation, as well as cost factors, affect the price trend [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The spot price decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved [53] - **Related Information**: The US government shutdown, and some semiconductor - related events occurred [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude, tin ore supply, and demand situation affect the price, which is in a weak shock [57] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak shock; Options: Temporary wait - and - see [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The furnace - starting situation in Yunnan changed, and the electricity price increased, affecting the production of industrial silicon [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, with limited downward and upward space [61] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [62][63][64] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Hubei launched a new energy project price - settlement mechanism bidding [66] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, and it is advisable to buy after the price stabilizes [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Unilateral: Buy after the price correction; Arbitrage: Reverse spread on far - month contracts; Options: None [71] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 decreased by 360 to 79,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices decreased [72] - **Important Information**: Some lithium - related companies' production and project progress were reported [73] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand situation in November affects the price, which may rebound after a short - term decline [74] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Arrange short positions after the rebound; Arbitrage: Temporary wait - and - see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, the US dollar index is strong, and copper prices weakened yesterday. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases suppress demand. The support for the main contract is at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will likely fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of a callback to 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton if inventory accumulates [4]. Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices will show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to continue the strong trend [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21440 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 285400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium was 74.00 dollars/ton, up 85.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 310 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 12800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; demand was 126961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has an oversupply situation with high inventories, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply from the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [2]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, accumulating inventories, and weakening cost support, and the stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 120,800 yuan/ton and closed at 119,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.99% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 122,871 (+25,519) lots, and the open interest was 118,460 (9,789) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation trend due to macro - factors such as the rising US dollar index, the Fed's hawkish remarks, and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm, with stable prices. There was a supply - demand gap, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons may cause shipment delays. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,500 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot transaction was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 30,952 (-254) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the situation of price rebound needs attention due to the sharp reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,625 yuan/ton and closed at 12,545 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,422 (+3,760) lots, and the open interest was 76,075 (-4,171) lots. It showed a weak oscillation trend, similar to the Shanghai nickel trend, affected by macro - factors and the weakening nickel - iron price [2][3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment increased, and the actual transaction was still weak. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets remained unchanged, and the high - nickel pig iron ex - factory tax - included average price decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The fundamentals of nickel are weak with inventory reduction pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 3, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 122060.00 yuan/ton, 120590.00 yuan/ton, 121180.00 yuan/ton, and 121360.00 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 97352.00 hands (-1139), and the open interest was 108671.00 hands (-3846) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 123050.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124300.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Market**: The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15175.00 dollars/ton (-65), the closing price of the electronic disk was 15250.00 dollars/ton, and the closing price of the physical trading was 15226.00 dollars/ton. The trading volume was 5178.00 hands. The total LME nickel inventory was 251238.00 tons (648) [2]. Stainless Steel Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 3, 2025, for Shanghai stainless steel futures, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 12610.00 yuan/ton, 12630.00 yuan/ton, 12685.00 yuan/ton, and 12705.00 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 107662.00 hands (-12218), and the open interest was 77047.00 hands (-4967) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13450.00 yuan/ton (-50), and the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25150.00 yuan/ton (-150) [2]. - **Inventory**: The total stainless steel spot inventory was 904700.00 tons, including 2200.00 tons of 200 - series, 613600.00 tons of 300 - series (+900), and 116800.00 tons of 400 - series (-2000) [2]. Industry News - Ambatovy project in Madagascar, operated by Sumitomo Corp, is running smoothly despite recent political unrest. The project aims to produce about 35,000 tons of nickel this fiscal year, with about 15,000 tons produced in the first half - year, similar to the same period last year. Equipment maintenance is planned for November [2]. - In September 2025, the nickel ore export volume of the Philippines was 7.7698 million tons, including 5.57155 million tons to China and 2.19825 million tons to Indonesia [2]. Market Logic - **Nickel**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, and nickel - iron stocks accumulated. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless steel production, and alloy and electroplating demand increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory reduction pressure, but the price is at a low level [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 3, the main contract of stainless steel fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The supply increased in October, and the 300 - series production decreased. The terminal demand was weak, and the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron fell. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weak [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 86,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory increases, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises declines. The price may fluctuate between 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and there is a risk of a pullback [3]. Alumina - The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite, the actual impact of domestic environmental protection policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of concerns about LME zinc squeezing and a warm macro - environment, zinc prices show a short - term strong oscillation, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. It may maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the market sentiment is weak. The fundamentals are generally flat, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are gradually weakening, the supply - side pressure remains, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. With strong demand expectations, the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Alumina - The average price of alumina in Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium is - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 285,400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; SMM 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,600 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 340 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Copper - In October, the electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In October, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7421 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 29,000 tons, up 13.07% month - on - month [3]. Alumina - In October, the alumina output was 1.82 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - The Chinese refined nickel output was 35,900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 38,164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 126,961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].