Core Viewpoint - New Hope (000876.SZ) continues to face operational challenges despite a recent investment partnership with state-owned enterprises to enhance its pig farming business, reflecting ongoing struggles in the pig cycle and financial pressures [2][4][19]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, New Hope reported revenue of approximately 805 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.60 billion, up 395.89% [5][9]. - However, the third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in net profit to 512.55 million, a drop of about 99% year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial strain [10][19]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 69.49% as of September 2025, with interest-bearing liabilities around 572 billion, highlighting substantial debt pressure [6][13]. Market Conditions - The fluctuation in pig prices has heavily influenced New Hope's financial results, with a recovery in prices contributing to earlier profit increases, but a recent decline in prices has led to renewed challenges [9][10]. - The average selling price of pigs exceeded 14 yuan/kg from January to July 2025 but fell below 12 yuan/kg in October 2025, indicating a downward trend in market conditions [10]. Environmental Issues - New Hope has faced multiple penalties for environmental violations across its subsidiaries, raising concerns about compliance and operational sustainability [7][15][17]. - Specific incidents include fines for improper wastewater management and repeated violations, which could impact the company's reputation and operational capabilities [15][16]. Strategic Initiatives - New Hope's recent collaboration with state-owned enterprises involves a total investment of 28.7 billion to establish a joint venture focused on pig farming, aiming to innovate within the industry and support rural revitalization efforts [3][20]. - The joint venture plans to acquire three of New Hope's subsidiaries and establish 16 new companies, utilizing a "corporate + farmer" model for pig farming [20].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations on November 7, with all three major indices retreating after an initial rise, while the agriculture sector showed resilience [1]. Group 1: ETF and Index Performance - The Tianhong ETF (512620) concluded its fundraising today, tracking the China Securities Agricultural Index, which selects 50 stocks across sectors like breeding and agricultural chemicals [2]. - The index includes leading companies such as Muyuan and Haida, indicating a diversified investment approach [2]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting in Wuhan on November 6 to promote the cultivation of leading agricultural technology enterprises and enhance the role of agricultural companies in technological innovation [2]. - Dongxing Securities highlighted that the revitalization of the seed industry and the industrialization of biological breeding are crucial for improving planting quality and yield, with a steady advancement expected [2]. - Under policy guidance, leading enterprises in the breeding and planting sectors are anticipated to extend their operations into downstream processing, which could stabilize price fluctuations and enhance profitability [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Guosheng Securities noted that the overall allocation to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors is currently low, below standard allocation ratios [2]. - For the breeding sector, there is optimism regarding low-cost leading companies as the industry shifts towards high-quality development [2]. - In the breeding support sector (feed, veterinary), there are opportunities for reshaping the market landscape among leading companies post-scale expansion [2]. - The planting sector is expected to maintain stable profitability, while the seed sector, despite lower attention, is entering a critical investment period in Q4, indicating potential for growth [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies that have been catalyzed by recent government actions, which are expected to extend investment durations and shift market dynamics towards supply-side constraints and orderly competition [2][3][4] - The "anti-involution" policies are now integrated into the five-year plan, indicating a shift in focus from short-term inventory cycles to medium-term capacity cycles, which is anticipated to positively influence prices and performance in the coming year [3][4][14] - The report notes that the current bull market is transitioning from liquidity-driven to inflation-driven, with M1 and corporate cash recovery providing a conducive environment for inflation to return, thereby enhancing the elasticity of tightly supplied cyclical products [4][5][17] Group 2 - The report identifies specific industries that are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, particularly those with tight supply conditions, including non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and certain consumer sectors [6][26] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring cyclical industries that are undervalued yet exhibit high elasticity, such as coal, steel, and construction materials, which are expected to see significant profit growth as the economic environment improves [5][26] - The report suggests that the recovery of commodity prices, such as polysilicon and coal, indicates a potential bottoming out of prices, which could lead to a new cycle of profit growth driven by the "anti-involution" measures [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, be cautious about the decline risk, not yet stabilized [14] - US Dollar: Short - term, expected to fluctuate [18] - Stock Index Futures: For each index, make a balanced long - position allocation [20] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, high - level shock adjustment, but with a bullish bias due to profit support [24] - Treasury Bond Futures: The driving force for the bond market to strengthen is weak, it is recommended to observe more and act less [27] - Soybean Meal: Consider it as a wide - range shock, pay attention to the quantity and form of China's purchase of US soybeans and South American weather [30] - Cotton: Short - term, expected to fluctuate between 13200 - 13800; long - term, cautiously optimistic, wait for a callback to go long [34] - Edible Oils: The bottom of palm oil prices may have emerged, pay attention to the MPOB report and high - frequency production and demand data in November [36] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term, may continue to fluctuate, pay attention to the risk of falling hot metal production [38] - Live Pigs: After a significant rebound, short the 03 contract, and continuously pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the far - month contract [41] - Corn Starch: For the spot rice - flour price difference, the fundamentals are bearish in the medium - long term, but the market has over - reacted. It is recommended to conduct band trading [43] - Steam Coal: By early November, the price of 5500K coal at the port is close to 790 yuan, and it is expected to stabilize above 800 yuan in November [45] - Iron Ore: The price shows a weak shock, with limited reduction in hot metal production [46] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contract [48] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: In the short - term, consider the steel price as a weak shock [51] - Red Dates: During the harvest period, the game between futures and spot prices is intense. It is recommended to observe cautiously and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the production area [54] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamental game. If the futures price pulls back to par or discount to the spot price, consider going long at low prices [57] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [59] - Lead: In the short - term, be cautious when shorting; in the arbitrage aspect, there is a positive - spread arbitrage opportunity; be cautious in the internal - external market trading [61] - Zinc: In the short - term, wait and see, observe the right - side short - selling opportunity; in the arbitrage aspect, observe the positive - spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see in the internal - external market trading [67] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to the medium - term short - selling opportunity at high prices [72] - Nickel: After the market risk is released, unilaterally bet on the return of valuation [74] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term, expected to fluctuate [76] - Methanol: Hold short positions, wait for the price to rebound and the market to return to the pattern of increasing short positions and falling prices, then add short positions, with a profit - taking target around 2100 yuan/ton [78] - Styrene: Wait and see until the concern about inventory over - filling is resolved [80] - PVC: It may maintain a low - level shock pattern [82] - Pulp: The risk of the futures price continuing to rise has increased significantly [83] - Soda Ash: In the short - term, pay attention to coal price fluctuations and new capacity release; in the medium - term, take a bearish view [85] - Float Glass: In the short - term, the market game is intense, it is recommended to wait and see [87] - Container Freight Index: Short - term, the futures price may fall back. Close short positions for profit, and appropriately pay attention to the long - position opportunity after the callback [89] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as Fed officials' statements, government shutdowns, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. The risk preference of the market has changed, and different investment opportunities and risks exist in different sectors [13][17][23] - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of different products vary. For example, the supply of some products is tight, while the demand of others is weak, which leads to different price trends and investment suggestions [34][38][40] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Geological Survey included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 key mineral list. Fed official Hamrick believes that the current economic situation requires maintaining a tight monetary policy to control inflation. Most Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflation risks and data shortages caused by the government shutdown. The gold price is in a short - term correction phase [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials oppose further interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, which causes the market risk preference to decline and the US dollar to fluctuate [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by nearly 1% and returned to 4000 points, with a significant increase in trading volume. The three major indexes rose unilaterally, and the computing power hardware industry chain and the electric power grid theme were active. In the absence of more incremental negative factors, the stock index fluctuates at a high level, and the ChiNext Index performs the most prominently [19][20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of layoffs by US Challenger companies in October increased significantly year - on - year, which triggered market concerns about recession. The US stock market continued to adjust significantly. However, short - term data fluctuates greatly, and more non - farm data are needed for judgment after the government reopens. The short - term market is expected to adjust with high - level shocks, but a bullish bias can be maintained due to profit support [23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 928 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2498 billion yuan on that day. Affected by the strong performance of the equity market, the bond market sentiment reversed rapidly. The driving force for the bond market to strengthen weakened, and there was a risk of decline at some times. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage strategies [25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Argentina started well. China still imposes a 13% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the future supply in the domestic market depends on the state reserve release. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the spot price of soybean meal has decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the US monthly supply - demand report and South American weather [28][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the focus of ginning factories has shifted to cotton processing and sales. The spot market mainly uses the "fixed - price" sales method. The procurement of raw materials by textile enterprises is still cautious. The increase in new cotton warehouse receipts suppresses the upside space of the futures price in the short - term [31][34] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The price of palm oil rose due to increased demand from India and Pakistan. However, factors such as high production expectations, a decline in Malaysian exports in early November, and a strong ringgit may limit price increases. The spot price of palm oil is expected to have bottomed out, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and data [35][36] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the central - southern China market is running strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the downstream procurement is active. After the third round of price increases for coke was implemented, the profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the upside space for raw coal prices was limited. In the short - term, the spot market remains tight, but the peak of hot metal production has passed, and it may continue to fluctuate [37][38] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The sales revenue of live pigs of listed companies such as Wenshi and Muyuan decreased year - on - year in October. The futures price showed a bottom - rebound trend in the short - term, but the medium - term supply is expected to be more abundant, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a significant rebound and pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the far - month contract [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products increased week - on - week. The downstream demand is good, and the substitution effect of cassava starch on corn starch has a certain marginal positive impact. The fundamentals are bearish for the spot rice - flour price difference in the medium - long term, but the market has over - reacted, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42][43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market continued to be strong on November 6. Due to factors such as railway freight adjustment, the arrival cost at the port increased, and the inventory was lower than the same period last year. The early arrival of cold air in winter increased the expectation of price increases. It is expected that the port coal price will be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [44][45] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of IOC's iron ore decreased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. The iron ore price is in a weak shock. Although the support from coking coal, coke, and steel plates limits the decline, the supply - demand contradiction increases seasonally, and there is no upward momentum [44][46] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the imported corn (targeted) auction increased. The spot price of corn is stable, and the futures price is strong. The demand for high - quality Northeast corn in the sales area is strong. The rumored wheat auction may relieve the short - term shortage of corn in North China. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term, and do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contract [47][48] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The average monthly working hours and the start - up rate of construction machinery decreased year - on - year in October. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the de - stocking slowed down, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased again. The demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [49][50] 3.2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is weakly stable. The harvest of red dates in Xinjiang has started, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is low. The spot price in the distribution area has decreased, and the profit margin of old red dates has declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously during the harvest period [52][53] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Sichuan launched the No. 136 bidding plan. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline in November due to the dry season. The inventory of upstream silicon material factories has increased, and the demand at the terminal has weakened. If the futures price pulls back to par or discount to the spot price, consider going long at low prices [55][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A solar cell technology - upgrading project in Jiangsu was publicly announced. The production of industrial silicon in the south is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream maintains rigid procurement. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $30.22 per ton on November 5. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic SHFE lead price was blocked in its upward trend. The supply of lead is gradually recovering, but the risk of delivery in the medium - term cannot be ignored. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting and pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc production of some overseas mining companies decreased in the third quarter. The Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level, supported by the macro - environment. The negotiation of long - term contracts is not going smoothly, the refinery's profit is under pressure, and the production is expected to decline in November and December. The domestic social inventory is high, and the export volume is small. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [62][66] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiangxi Province announced the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of the Jianxiawo lithium mine. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. It is recommended to pay attention to the medium - term short - selling opportunity at high prices [68][72] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia stopped approving certain nickel ore processing projects. The impact of this news is small. The nickel ore price in Indonesia is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter, and the supply of Philippine nickel ore is tight. The downstream demand for nickel is weak, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. After the market risk is released, unilaterally bet on the return of valuation [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on November 6 was 54.86 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from the previous day. The trading volume increased slightly, and the price rebounded. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the rigid demand during the compliance peak period [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization increased this week, while the capacity utilization of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased slightly. The supply - demand balance in the port area is still not optimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and wait for the price to rebound and then add short positions [77][78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week, mainly due to the restart of some plants and the new production capacity. The styrene price is expected to face the risk of inventory accumulation in December. It is recommended to wait and see until the concern about inventory over - filling is resolved [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreased. The futures price first declined and then rebounded. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The high - inventory situation will continue in the fourth quarter, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed a strengthening trend. The futures price of pulp continued to rise. The risk of the futures price continuing to rise has increased significantly due to the possibility of registering warehouse receipts [83] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased on November 6 compared with Monday. The futures price of soda ash strengthened due to cost increases. The supply of soda ash increased slightly, and the downstream demand remained stable. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price fluctuations and new capacity release; in the medium - term, take a bearish view [84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased this week, mainly due to the news of production line shutdowns in the Shahe area. However, the inventory of middlemen and futures - cash traders has reached a new high, and the de - stocking pressure is large. As the weather turns cold, the demand in the north will enter the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see due to the intense market game [86][87] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - Maersk's third - quarter performance was strong, but its revenue decreased year - on - year. The European

Group 1: Fixed Income and Banking - The report discusses the increasing mismatch in the duration of bank assets and liabilities, leading to pressure on liquidity indicators and constraints on asset allocation behavior [5] - It highlights that the increase in long-duration bond holdings raises interest rate risk indicators [5] Group 2: Beauty and Personal Care - The company, founded in 2001, has become the third-largest domestic cosmetics group in China, with flagship brand "Natural Hall" consistently ranking among the top two domestic brands from 2013 to 2024 [6] - Revenue has shown a steady growth trend, with figures of 4.29 billion, 4.44 billion, and 4.60 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, and adjusted net profits of 139 million, 313 million, and 203 million yuan [6] - The company primarily relies on online channels, with 68.8% of revenue from online sales in the first half of 2025, and has over 37.7 million registered members [6] Group 3: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - As of the end of Q3 2025, the heavy allocation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery stocks decreased to 0.78%, down 0.58 percentage points from the previous quarter [8] - The report indicates a significant reduction in allocations for the breeding and feed sectors, with breeding at 0.31% and feed at 0.40% [9] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies in the breeding sector and stable profitability in the planting sector, with specific recommendations for stocks like Muyuan Foods and New Hope [10] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The company is recognized as a leader in the global consumer-grade 3D printing equipment market, with a strong competitive advantage through its product offerings and technology [12] - It has established a comprehensive sales system covering approximately 140 countries and regions, with a network of 2,163 distributors [12] Group 5: Electronics - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 6.676 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 54.5% year-on-year increase [15] - The report emphasizes the explosive demand for AI computing power, predicting that the global AI chip market could reach $400 billion by 2027 [16]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on November 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.60% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) rose by 0.28%, with a premium trading rate of 0.06% [1] - As of November 5, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF had a latest circulating scale of 5.622 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF experienced net inflows for 9 out of the last 10 days, accumulating nearly 120 million yuan [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as segments like beverages, dairy, and condiments [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (subscription code: 512623, listing code: 512620) officially launched on November 3, with fundraising set to end on November 7, 2025 [1] - This ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which selects 50 stocks covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, including leading companies like Muyuan and Haida [1] Group 4: Industry Insights - Guizhou Province's Commerce Department is soliciting opinions on transforming "selling liquor" into "selling lifestyle," encouraging innovation in product offerings and service methods in retail and dining sectors [2] - As of October 30, over 90% of the autumn grain harvest has been completed nationwide, with the Northeast region nearing completion and expected to achieve a good harvest [2] Group 5: White Liquor Market Analysis - Guosen Securities reports that the white liquor market is facing pressure on both volume and price due to tightening regulations on public consumption and business banquets [3] - The report indicates that the worst period for white liquor sales pressure has passed, with expectations for demand recovery in the future [3] - Guosen Securities suggests focusing on stable industry leaders and high-quality stocks with long-term growth potential due to ongoing structural upgrades and channel strategy optimization [3]

Group 1: Industry Cycle - The new paradigm in livestock farming is reinforced, while the planting cycle is stabilizing after fluctuations. For pigs, the "anti-involution" policy highlights the value attributes of leading companies, with a slight decline in average pig prices expected in 2026 compared to 2025, showing a pattern of initial suppression followed by recovery [3][7]. - In the poultry sector, chicken prices are expected to remain stable due to abundant supply and moderate demand recovery, with leading companies enhancing operational resilience through integrated development across the supply chain [3][8]. - The feed industry shows long-term growth potential, particularly in aquaculture feed, supported by recovering farming profitability, while demand for livestock feed is expected to remain stable in 2026 [3][9]. - Domestic grain prices are anticipated to stabilize at the bottom, with corn prices expected to show weak fluctuations and soybean prices slightly recovering [3][9]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The pet economy is entering a mid-stage, focusing on market share enhancement, with the pet food industry projected to grow at over 10% annually in the next 3-5 years, driven by high-quality growth and increased competition [4][11]. - In pet healthcare, the industry is rapidly expanding, with a shift from land-grabbing to quality improvement, and leading companies are expected to optimize their market positions through enhanced operational efficiency [4][12]. - The kitchen food market, valued at trillions, is seeing structural opportunities with the popularity of fresh corn products, while the tea industry is experiencing brand upgrades that enhance consumer recognition and improve consumption experiences [4][13]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The agricultural technology narrative is shifting towards automation and biotechnology, with the mechanization of agriculture reaching a critical point due to reduced labor and increased demand for smart agricultural equipment [4][15]. - The seed industry is expected to see accelerated growth in genetically modified corn cultivation by 2026, supported by favorable policies and reduced price drag on grains [4][15]. - In animal health, the competition is intensifying, with opportunities for domestic pet health products to increase market penetration, particularly in differentiated categories like ruminant health [4][15].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, particularly in the pig farming sector, while the white chicken farming sector showed growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - The pig farming sector generated revenue of 101.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.69% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the pig farming sector was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 67.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27.21% due to a drop in pig prices compared to the previous year [1]. - In contrast, the white chicken farming sector achieved revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.03% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the white chicken farming sector was 316 million yuan, benefiting from a recovery in chick prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side indicates that from April 2024, pig farming entered a profitable phase, with the breeding sow inventory gradually increasing. As of September 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.35 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2]. - The total pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 was 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%, with Q3 2025 slaughter volume reaching 164 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [2]. - The average pig price in Q3 2025 dropped to 13.83 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.15% [2]. - Consumer demand showed fluctuations, with a decline in July and August due to hot weather, but a recovery in September driven by back-to-school and holiday preparations [2]. Group 3: Outlook and Policy Impact - The supply side outlook suggests continued growth in breeding sow capacity from H2 2024 to H1 2025, with expectations of production capacity reduction in the industry [3]. - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to control breeding sow inventory and restrict pig sales to curb speculative behavior, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity among leading farming enterprises [3]. - Demand is expected to increase in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but overall growth is anticipated to be limited, with potential further declines in pig prices post-Spring Festival [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, is recommended for investment, as it covers the entire pig farming industry chain [4]. - Despite short-term pressures on pig prices and farming profits, the potential for accelerated reduction in breeding sow inventory and improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is highlighted [4]. - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale surpassing 8 billion yuan, reflecting growing investor interest amid industry fluctuations and policy expectations [4].

Group 1 - The Agricultural ETF Tianhong (subscription code: 512623) has officially launched, providing an efficient and convenient tool for investors to allocate resources in the agricultural sector [1] - The ETF is policy-backed, benefiting from the foundational role of agriculture in the national economy, with policies such as the 2025 Central Document No. 1 and the "Accelerating the Construction of a Strong Agricultural Country Plan" set to be implemented, ensuring a full-chain dividend [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, selecting 50 stocks across various fields, including breeding (42.3%) and agrochemicals (17.5%), featuring leading companies like Muyuan and Haida, which helps to diversify cyclical risks [1] Group 2 - The current index price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is below the 10th percentile of the past decade, indicating a valuation trough, combined with rising pig prices and institutional capital inflow, suggesting potential for valuation recovery and earnings growth [3] - The president of the China Animal Husbandry Association stated that high-quality development in the pig farming industry does not exclude competition, emphasizing the need for innovation, cost reduction, and quality maintenance while controlling production capacity [3] - According to Guojin Securities, the average national pig price in Q3 2025 was 13.79 yuan/kg, down 29.05% year-on-year, with some companies facing losses due to falling prices, leading to an expected industry capacity reduction [3]

Group 1 - The 15th National Games torch relay was successfully completed in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, marking a significant moment in Chinese sports history and showcasing the connectivity of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [4][5][6] - The first "Guanghua Red Palm" Art Festival was inaugurated in Guangzhou, aimed at promoting the high-quality development of the flower industry [9][10] - The Guangdong marine fishery is transitioning towards a socialized service system, moving away from individual operations to a more integrated service model, which includes financial support and talent cultivation [14][15][18] Group 2 - Wens Foodstuff Group has distributed a total of 30.1 billion yuan in dividends over its ten years since listing, benefiting cooperative farmers with over 92.9 billion yuan in breeding income [22][23] - The transformation of service areas into cultural tourism hubs is underway, with events promoting local specialties and cultural experiences [26][30] - The second Chaozhou Food Culture Week was held in Shenzhen, allowing visitors to experience authentic Chaozhou cuisine without traveling to Chaozhou [36][37][39] Group 3 - Agricultural technology is seen as a key driver for revitalizing rural areas, with innovations in active enzyme technology being introduced to enhance crop quality and empower farmers [42][43][44]