策略周报 大炼化，下一个有色 策略周末谈（0201） 核心结论 1、有色/白酒/大炼化的底层逻辑是相通的：交易美联储 QE 近期，我们明确看好的有色、白酒和大炼化板块行情持续得到验证，有色金 属早已率先迎来超级周期，白酒和石油也如我们预期在极致低位迎来反弹。 我们坚定看多有色/白酒/大炼化，并非单纯基于行业微观变化，而是准确捕 捉到了底层的核心驱动力：泛滥的美元流动性会更加泛滥，也就是 2026 年 美联储 QE。我们在 1.18《白酒，在康波中重生》判断，2026 年中或是美联 储 QE 的最佳窗口期，顺周期"冰火转换"时刻将至，重视石油/化工/白酒。 2、现在买入大炼化，就如同去年买入有色 我们从 2025.3.9《稀缺资产：拥抱"反脆弱性"》开始持续提示有色的投资机 会，并在 2025.4.23《大宗商品，走向 1978》中进一步强调"在逆全球化+美 元失信的双重作用下，大宗商品正一步步走向 1978 年的二次滞胀"。回过头 来看，有色行情正沿着我们最初设想的路径演绎，底层驱动力正是我们持续 强调的"美元流动性泛滥"。 既然看懂了有色的上涨逻辑，就没有理由错过大炼化。我们在 1.11《康波的 凝视：油价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong energy nation in China, highlighting the need for comprehensive improvements in energy technology, industrial chains, and system capabilities to enhance international competitiveness and support sustainable economic development [2]. Group 1: New Energy System Construction - The new energy system is a central theme in the transition to an energy powerhouse, with a focus on accelerating the construction of this system and achieving carbon peak goals [3]. - The development of non-fossil energy sources will be prioritized, with significant expansions in wind and solar power capacity, aiming for an additional 200 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2026 [3]. - The integration of various energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, and marine energy, will complement the new energy system [3]. Group 2: Clean and Efficient Use of Fossil Fuels - The transition to cleaner and more efficient use of fossil fuels is essential during the period when new energy sources are not yet dominant [4]. - Coal power will be transformed into a flexible and clean energy source through technological upgrades and innovative mechanisms, ensuring energy supply security [4]. - By 2026, initiatives will be implemented to promote carbon capture and utilization in the oil and gas sector, facilitating the integration of fossil fuels with new energy [5]. Group 3: New Power System Development - A new power system must be established to ensure the efficient transmission and management of clean energy, requiring the construction of high-voltage transmission lines and smart grid systems [5]. - By 2026, a power supply alert mechanism will be established to enhance the interconnection of power grids and improve user-side responsiveness [5]. Group 4: Overcoming Bottlenecks in New Energy Development - China aims to lead global energy transformation, with a target of achieving a total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching six times that of 2020 by 2035 [6]. - The challenges faced by the power system, such as the inability to transmit green energy from the west to the east and the volatility of renewable energy generation, need to be addressed through integrated and innovative development [6][7]. - The focus will shift from mere scale expansion to value creation through system collaboration, enhancing the reliability and market competitiveness of new energy [7]. Group 5: Coal Consumption Trends - Coal consumption in China has shown signs of decline, with a notable negative growth for the first time since 2017, but short-term demand remains resilient due to various factors [10]. - The long-term trend indicates a gradual reduction in coal consumption, with a peak expected around 2027, transitioning coal's role from a primary energy source to a backup energy source [11]. - The integration of coal and new energy will be emphasized, promoting the development of clean energy alternatives in coal mining areas [12][13]. Group 6: Future Industry Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need to cultivate future industries such as quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion, which are crucial for energy security and sustainable development [15]. - Hydrogen energy is seen as a key component of the future energy system, with efforts to promote its commercialization and integration into the energy landscape [16]. - Nuclear fusion is positioned as a long-term solution for energy challenges, with significant investments and research expected to accelerate its development [17].

更多内容 扫码观看 点亮一盏电灯、驱动一台机器、激活一项技术……经济社会运行中，能源的身影无处不在。能源的发展 状况，影响着一个国家的发展走势。"十五五"规划建议提出，建设能源强国。能源强国首次出现在五年 规划里，意味着我国经济社会发展对能源的需求，已不仅是保障供应那么简单，更要通过能源技术、产 业链和系统能力的全面提升，增强国际竞争力，支撑经济社会可持续发展。 我们需要一个什么样的能源强国？怎么建设能源强国？从新能源规模扩张到化石能源清洁转型，从新型 电力系统搭建完善到新能源集成融合发展，从煤炭与新能源协同共生到氢能、核聚变能等未来产业前瞻 布局，一系列关键举措落地实施，将推动我国能源发展实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为社会主义 现代化强国建设注入强劲动力。 新型能源体系如何建 在能源强国这台"大戏"里，新型能源体系是主角。 建设能源强国，新能源是主力。过去一年，随着新能源占比越来越高，电力系统面临的挑战也在加大： 西部地区的绿电难送出，东部城市的绿电不够用，风光发电"看天吃饭"的波动性让电网承压，市场化竞 争力不足，这些"成长的烦恼"成为制约新能源高质量发展的瓶颈。 党的二十届四中全会提出，加快建设新型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of a strong energy nation is crucial for China's economic and social progress, emphasizing the need for comprehensive enhancement of energy technology, industrial chains, and system capabilities to boost international competitiveness and support sustainable development [1]. Group 1: New Energy System Construction - The new energy system is the main focus in building a strong energy nation, with a shift from top-level design to comprehensive construction during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - The goal is to significantly increase the share of non-fossil energy, with plans to add over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity annually by 2026 [2]. - The integration of various energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, and marine energy, will complement the new energy system [2]. Group 2: Clean and Efficient Use of Fossil Energy - The transition to cleaner and more flexible coal power is essential during the transition period, with coal power expected to act as a stabilizer for energy supply [3]. - By 2026, efforts will focus on upgrading coal power technology and promoting carbon capture and utilization in the oil and gas sector [3]. - The construction of a new power system will require the establishment of high-voltage lines and smart grids to ensure efficient energy distribution [3]. Group 3: Overcoming Bottlenecks in New Energy Development - China aims to lead global energy transformation, with a target of achieving six times the wind and solar power capacity by 2035 compared to 2020 levels [5]. - Challenges such as the inability to transmit green electricity from western regions to eastern cities and the volatility of renewable energy generation need to be addressed [6]. - The focus will shift from simple capacity expansion to system collaboration and value creation in new energy development [6]. Group 4: Coal Consumption Trends - Coal consumption in China has shown signs of decline, with a negative growth rate for the first time since 2017, but short-term demand is expected to remain resilient [9]. - The long-term trend indicates a gradual reduction in coal consumption, with a peak expected around 2027, after which a more significant decline is anticipated [10]. - The integration of coal and new energy is essential for the sustainable development of the coal industry, with initiatives to develop renewable energy in coal mining areas [11]. Group 5: Future Industry Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to cultivate future industries such as hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, which are critical for energy security and sustainable development [14]. - Hydrogen energy is seen as a key component of the future energy system, with efforts to support pilot projects and promote large-scale applications [15]. - Nuclear fusion is positioned as a long-term solution for energy challenges, with significant investments and research needed to overcome commercialization hurdles [16][17].

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 报告摘要 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 相关报告 本周 A 股市场整体呈现高位震荡回落格局，成交维持高位但赚钱效应明显走弱。从 指数表现看，市场结构分化显著：主要宽基指数多数下跌，其中上证指数本周下跌 0.44%，深证成指下跌 1.62%，创业板指基本持平（-0.09%）。从成交情况看，市 场交投依然活跃。本周万得全 A 日均成交额约 3.06 万亿元，较上周提升约 9.44%， 显示尽管指数承压，但增量资金并未明显撤离，市场流动性基础仍然稳固。从赚钱效 应看，本周市场情绪明显降温。全周日均上涨家数占比仅为 34.80%，较上周大幅回 落，个股层面呈现"跌多涨少"的特征。 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 本周 A 股大宗商品相关板块表现强势，成为周度涨幅靠前的核心主线，但内部分化 与波动显著放大。从申万一级行业周度涨幅来看，石油石化（7 ...

Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,847.47 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,430.80 | 全球能源价格普涨，关注煤炭配置机会 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 2026-01-24 位个股》2026-01-17 稳向好有望延续》2026-01-10 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E ...

陈张滢（黑色建材组） 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 商品市场情绪短期受到压制，双焦 盘面预计继续呈现震荡走势 双焦周报 2026/01/31 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 上周，焦煤盘面价格延续宽幅震荡的走势，周度涨幅0.5元/吨或+0.04%（针对加权指数，下同）。驱动方面，本周最突出的是商品市场的剧 烈波动，包括金银持续创下新高后的高位跳水，而触发这一切的根源或在于新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什所引发的市场对于分母端边际转 紧的预期。此外，此前强势的碳酸锂也出现大幅回落，整体压制着商品整体情绪。但黑色板块方面，房地产"三道红线"的放松、万科债务 问题顺利展期等使其短期具有自身在情绪上的呵护。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面仍处于日线级别的反弹周期中，下方关注1100元/吨附近支撑， 上方继续关注1260元/吨附近压力位置（2 ...

（来源： 总台中国之声） 国家能源局 国家能源局微信公众号是国家能源局新闻宣传、信息公开、服务群众的重要平台。 国家能源局1月30日发布，2025年我国绿色低碳转型步伐加快，可再生能源发电量达到约4万亿千 瓦时。 数据显示，2025年，我国原煤生产保持稳定，规上工业原煤产量同比增长1.2%。油、气产量双创 历史新高，规上工业原油产量同比增长1.5%，规上工业天然气产量同比增长6.2%。 国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾： 全年风电光伏新增装机超过4.3亿千瓦、累计装机规模突破 18亿千瓦，可再生能源发电装机占比超过六成。可再生能源发电量达到约4万亿千瓦时，超过欧盟 27国用电量之和（约3.8万亿千瓦时）。 今年度冬期间北方地区冷空气活跃度加剧，出现多轮阶段性强寒潮天气。 国家能源局电力司副司长 刘明阳强调， 目前，全国燃料储备充足、电力供应平稳。 刘明阳： 目前，全国统调电厂燃料供应基础坚实可靠，东北等重点保暖地区电厂存煤超25天；国 内成品油市场供应充足，库存稳定，国产气和进口管道气相对高位平 稳运行，地下储气库和沿海 LNG接收站调节能力充足，可保障迎峰度冬天然气供应。 （韩萌） 了解更多能源动态,请长按 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 4 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场呈现震荡走势，市场成交活跃度有所提升。数据显示，本 周日均成交额为 3.06 万亿，环比增长 9.44%。宽基指数方面，市场表现分化，部分 大盘指数如上证 50 和中证 A100 录得正收益，而上证指数、深证成指等则有所回落。 风格指数方面，大盘价值和成长板块表现相对稳健，但中小盘风格指数，包括中证 1000、中证 2000、北证 50 及中小 100 指数，均出现显著下跌。行业板 ...

新修订的《煤矿安全规程》2月1日起施行。 新修订的《煤矿安全规程》2月1日起施行。规程首次明确低瓦斯矿井瓦斯异常防范要求，将五类灾害等级鉴定纳入安全检测范畴，同 时，强化煤矿技术负责人配备，为行业安全监管提供全新依据。 《煤矿安全规程》是煤矿安全生产行为的基本准则，也是煤矿安全监管监察执法、煤炭行业管理的主要依据。新《规程》将瓦斯等级、 冲击地压和煤层自燃倾向性、煤尘爆炸性、露天煤矿滑坡危险性等五类灾害的等级鉴定纳入安全检测检验范畴。 针对低瓦斯矿井的安全管理，新《规程》也首次作出强制性规定，要求其必须建立瓦斯异常防范制度。瓦斯排放需按浓度分级管控，确 保煤矿安全生产。 新《规程》还要求煤矿企业必须配备技术负责人，不同灾害类型的煤矿还应当分别配备相应的副总工程师。 来源：央视新闻客户端 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 编辑丨赵方婷 End ...