Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year. The Q1 of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year. The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 5.889 billion, 6.603 billion, and 7.382 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 12.2%, and 11.8% [6][11][13] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company maintained a gross margin of 79.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The selling and administrative expense ratios decreased by 0.6 percentage points each to 26.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The net profit margin for 2024 was 23.4%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the selling and administrative expense ratios were 26.6% and 4.4%, respectively, with a net profit margin of 25.5%, reflecting continuous improvement in profitability [9][11][13] Revenue Structure - The revenue from different product lines in 2024 was as follows: Year Original Pulp at 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31%), Gujing Gongjiu at 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17%), and Huanghelou and others at 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08%). The report anticipates double-digit growth for the Happiness Edition and Gu 5, with Gu 20 also expected to see double-digit growth, while Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 are projected to exceed the average growth rate of Year Original Pulp [7] Contract Liabilities and Sales - As of the end of Q4 2024, contract liabilities stood at 3.515 billion yuan, an increase of 1.579 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. By the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities rose to 3.674 billion yuan, reflecting strong brand loyalty and confidence from the distribution channels. Sales cash receipts for 2024 totaled 23.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, while Q1 2025 sales cash receipts were 8.23 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival sales [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year. The Q1 of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year. The company maintains strong market control, and current environmental and inventory conditions only affect short-term growth without impacting brand strength and sustainable development [6][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from different product lines was as follows: Yearly original liquor generated 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31%), Gujing Gongjiu 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17%), and Huanghelou and others 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08%). The company expects double-digit growth for the Happiness Edition and Gu 5, with Gu 20 also showing double-digit growth, while Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 are expected to exceed the average growth rate of yearly original liquor [7]. - The contract liabilities at the end of Q4 2024 were 3.515 billion yuan, reflecting a historical high level of channel loyalty and confidence. However, sales cash receipts in Q1 2025 decreased slightly by 1.6% year-on-year to 8.23 billion yuan due to a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival sales [8]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9% in 2024, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios to 26.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.4%. In Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios further decreased, and the net profit margin rose to 25.5% [9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Gujing Gongjiu for 2025-2027 is as follows: net profits are expected to be 5.886 billion yuan in 2025 (up 6.7%), 6.603 billion yuan in 2026 (up 12.2%), and 7.382 billion yuan in 2027 (up 11.8%). The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 11.14 yuan, 12.49 yuan, and 13.97 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 15.4, 13.7, and 12.3, respectively [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient operating performance and is actively pursuing channel reforms, which supports the "Buy" rating [5] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 89.175 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, while net profit is expected to reach 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [5][9] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with a slight decline in net profit margin due to increased promotional expenses [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with net profit of 6.92 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 36.94 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 32.85 billion, 34.90 billion, and 37.32 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 6.2%, and 6.9% [5][9] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 89.175 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 77.1% and a net margin of 37.2% [9][13] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 75.9%, while the net profit margin is expected to be 36.7% for 2025 [9][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 8.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 [9][13] Product Performance - Wuliangye's product revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 67.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven by strategic products [6] - The company has made significant investments in strategic products such as 1618 and low-alcohol beverages, contributing to revenue growth [6] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - Sales cash receipts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 62.24 billion yuan, aligning with revenue performance [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities decreased by 1.52 billion yuan to 10.17 billion yuan, maintaining a historically high level [7]

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩稳健增长，彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健，核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好，渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20][5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave series products, which are expected to continue to show double-digit growth throughout the year, despite a general decline in demand for other products [2][4] - The company is actively managing its channel structure to ensure healthy inventory levels and is expected to maintain a strong market presence in the domestic market [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [1] - For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 74.00 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8%, and the net profit is projected to be 26.24 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 1.3% [5][6] Product Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary white liquor in 2024 is expected to be 5.713 billion yuan and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.6% [2] - The cave series products are anticipated to maintain strong growth, particularly the Dong 9 and Dong 6 variants, which are expected to outperform other product lines [2][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2024 is projected to be 5.093 billion yuan and 1.909 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from ordinary liquor, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q4 2024 [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.28 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 145.44 yuan over the next six months [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable growth trajectory while managing costs effectively. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a slight decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio steadily, with targets of at least 65%, 70%, and 75% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31,196 million yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 2.01% for 2025 and 3.70% for 2026 [4][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 13,473 million yuan in 2024 to 15,773 million yuan by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.66% [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 9.18 yuan in 2024 to 10.72 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.64x and 11.53x [4][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of -3% over the past month and 8% over the past three months, while it has declined by 31% over the past year [8]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 8 million shares, with a total market capitalization of approximately 181.93 billion yuan [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 2024Q4+2025Q1 中低档酒降速调整，省内洞藏系列势能延续 2024 年收入稳健增长、净利率提升，2024Q4+2025Q1 调整降速。2024 年公司实 现收入 73.44 亿元/同比+8.5%，归母净利润 25.89 亿元/同比+13.4%；2024Q4 收 入 18.30 亿元/同比-5.0%，归母净利润 5.83 亿元/同比-4.9%；2025Q1 收入 20.47 亿元/同比-12.3%，归母净利润 8.29 亿元/同比-9.5%。2024Q4+2025Q1 看，收入 同比-9.0%，净利润同比-7.7%。 2024 年前高后低，洞藏系列增势延续。分产品看，2024 年中高档/普通白酒收入 57.13/12.90 亿元，同比+13.8%/-6.6%；其中中高档酒销量同比+9.3%，吨价同 比+4.1%；预计洞藏系列增势延续，全年仍增长双位数以上，洞 9、洞 6 增速更 快；结构升级推动酒类业务毛利率同比+2.73pcts。分区域看，2024 年省内/省 外市场收入 50.93/19.09 亿元，同比+12.8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][15]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its 2024 performance with a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 started strong with a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, representing a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and net profit through 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 25.54 billion yuan, 27.63 billion yuan, and 29.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.3%, 8.2%, and 6.6% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.52 billion yuan, marking a 20.2% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit by 0.7% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from the aged raw liquor segment reached 18.09 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17.3% year-on-year, driven by both volume and price increases [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure, with significant contributions from its premium products, particularly in the domestic market [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the lower-priced bottled liquor segment to capture additional market share [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with a focus on marketing activities during key festive periods to boost sales [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 25.54 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.07 billion yuan, indicating a continued positive outlook despite a slight adjustment in previous forecasts [4][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-600 yuan price range, leveraging its brand strength and distribution channels [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][4] - The company has set a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65%/70%/75% of net profit for each year [1] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, which is expected to enhance internal management efficiency and eventually lead to revenue growth as the consumer-centric model is established [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] Product and Market Analysis - The sales of the Guojiao brand exceeded 20 billion yuan, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company is actively expanding both traditional and new sales channels, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 4.2% respectively in 2024 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for liquor business decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the payment price for Guojiao [2] - The company managed to maintain a good level of expense management, with the tax rate and sales expense ratio showing slight increases [2][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 31.7 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, and 35.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.7%, 5.2%, and 6.4% [4][11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.6 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.5%, and 7.1% [4][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of reform dividends and the ongoing upgrade of product structure, leading to potential earnings elasticity [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating net profits of 887.12 million and 1,027.34 million respectively, with growth rates of 12.71% and 15.81% [4] Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses are projected to be 5.36 billion, 787.10 million, and 887.12 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.91%, 18.19%, and 12.71% [5] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.27 billion, net profit of 231 million, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 220 million, showing year-on-year declines of 10.03%, 6.79%, and 3.79% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.17 billion, net profit of 152 million, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 142 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.36%, 11.91%, and 13.22% [1] Product Structure and Market Performance - The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan decreased by 17.66% in Q4 2024, while products priced below 100 yuan increased by 3.08% [2] - The company’s revenue from different regions in Q4 2024 showed a decline in Hebei and other provinces, while the Hunan market experienced a growth of 9.53% [3] Financial Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 improved by 5.86 and 1.00 percentage points to 68.58% and 13.05% respectively, attributed to product structure upgrades [4] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased by 4.59 percentage points to 27.51% in Q1 2025 [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.50 billion by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.67% [12]