编者按 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 金焰介绍，2025年非银机构存款余额显著增加6.4万亿元，银行理财产品规模突破33万亿元，较2024年 年末增加3.3万亿元，其中97%以上为固收类产品。"在利率下行的背景下，单纯的固收类资产难以满足 投资者的收益需求，增配权益类资产来提升整体回报已成为必然选择。预计'固收+'策略将凭借稳健与 增强收益的特性，成为广大投资者资产配置的主流选择。"他说。 他进一步表示，"固收"部分以中短久期、高等级信用债为主，获取稳健票息收益，并充当"安全 垫"；"+"部分则通过可转债、ETF、精选个股以及CTA策略等工具实现收益增强。配置比例需严格依据 资金风险收益目标动态校准，控制在 ...

Group 1 - The capital flow in the A-share market has shown a divergent trend since the beginning of 2026, with broad-based ETFs experiencing significant outflows while industry and cross-border ETFs have attracted substantial inflows [1][2] - As of February 13, 2026, the net inflow for cross-border ETFs reached 63 billion yuan, while industry ETFs such as chemical, non-ferrous metals, and satellite sectors have seen strong capital inflows [1][2] - The total net outflow from equity ETFs in the A-share market amounted to 846.46 billion yuan by February 13, 2026, with major outflows concentrated in large-scale broad-based ETFs [1][2] Group 2 - Fund managers remain optimistic about the technology sector, viewing it as a core investment theme for 2026, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) advancements [3][4] - The AI sector is perceived as a significant driver of productivity and is considered a key variable in the new industrial revolution, with expectations for continued growth and innovation in China [3][4] - Despite recent market adjustments, the long-term upward trend of the A-share market is expected to persist, with a focus on AI as a primary investment narrative [3][4]

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态 势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 鲍瑞海的配置思路是"同一逻辑，双重表达"，如铜价上涨，既利好有色板块上市公司的利润，也能直接 通过铜期货获利。"根据相关性，投资者可以同时管理一个板块的风险，从而实现合理配置。"他说。 低相关性构建"免费午餐" 诺贝尔经济学奖得主哈里·马科维茨曾将分散化称为投资中唯一的"免费午餐"。本期三位私募受访者的 观点，都离不开这一理念。 鲍瑞海从实战角度提出了三层应对框架：成长赛道方面，沿着"企业爬科技树"方向，挖掘尚未充分演绎 的机会，用 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

格隆汇2月23日丨江西铜业股份(00358.HK)公告，建议于中华人民共和国("中国")注册并发行(不超过人 民币150亿元(含人民币150亿元)的中期票据及不超过人民币100亿元(含人民币100亿元)的超短期融资 券。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (00358) announced its board's proposal to register and issue medium-term notes of up to RMB 15 billion (including RMB 15 billion) and ultra-short-term financing bonds of up to RMB 10 billion (including RMB 10 billion) in the People's Republic of China [1] Group 1 - The company plans to issue medium-term notes not exceeding RMB 15 billion [1] - The company also intends to issue ultra-short-term financing bonds not exceeding RMB 10 billion [1] - Both financial instruments are categorized as non-financial corporate debt financing tools [1]

今天港股大涨，明天2月24日，马年A股即将开跑。从假期各方信息看，没有负面消息，全部正面，大概率是开门红，且有可 能高开高走。高开概率8成，高开高走概率6成，主观判断，仅供参考： 1，过节期间，利好基本符合预期。 2，港股开门红，给了A股正向情绪。 3，黄金原油等大宗商品上涨，资源股情绪正向，节前我们已经提醒。 4，人形机器人在春晚爆火，话题性打满，预计会带动机器人板块整体上涨。 5，AI红包带动互联网巨头股价上涨，港股BAT等股票已经有所表现。 6，美股对AI泡沫的恐慌在消退，这方面美股英伟达股价可以看出（本文在23日美股开盘前）。 | 周 预 测 | | 2月23日-2月27日 | | 轮盘性质 | 中线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | | | FE | H | 3980 箱底 | | 箱顺 | 4200 | | カ | 指 | 4000 强支撑 | | 大盘反转 | | | 支 | | | | | | | 撑 | | 4050 第 一 支 | | 第一阻力 | 4150 | | 预 | | 撑 | | | | | 测 | | ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive sentiment today, with all three major indices opening high and maintaining strong fluctuations, led by the technology sector [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.65%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 3.34% [2][3] - Major tech stocks performed well, with Meituan rising over 5%, Alibaba, Xiaomi, and JD.com increasing by over 3%, while semiconductor stocks also saw significant gains [2] Group 2 - Zhipu, referred to as the "first stock of large models in Hong Kong," experienced a sharp decline of 22.76% due to the impact of an apology letter related to its GLM Coding Plan [4][5] - Zhipu's stock price had previously surged over 250% from February 9 to February 22, indicating a volatile trading period [4] - The company acknowledged three main errors in the GLM Coding Plan, including insufficient transparency, slow rollout of GLM 5, and poorly designed upgrade mechanisms for existing users [6] Group 3 - The precious metals sector, including gold, saw strong performance, with stocks like Tongguan Gold rising over 12% and Ganfeng Lithium increasing by over 8% [7][8] - Other notable gains in the precious metals sector included Zijin Mining and Wukuang Resources, both rising by over 6% [7]

2月23日（周一），摩根大通（JP MORGAN）发布报告显示，预估2026年铜市将出现13万吨供应缺口。 摩根大通表示，预期2027年铜市将转为温和过剩，因铜废料供应增加、且2025年多个发生重大供应中断的矿场恢复供应。 摩根大通表示，预估2026年第二季铜价为每吨13,500美元，2026年第三季则为每吨13,000美元。 该投行表示，预估2026年铝市将出现23万吨供应缺口。 摩根大通表示，预估2026年第二季铝均价为每吨3,200美元，2026年下半年也将很大程度获得支撑。 （文华综合） ...

2月23日（周一），伦敦期铜徘徊在一周高点下方，此前美国最高法院推翻了特朗普关税，特朗普随即 回应宣布对所有进口商品征收15%的关税，引发的不确定性让市场担忧。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）指标三个月期铜下跌0.1%，报每吨12,941.50美元，此前受美元走软提振，盘 中曾触及逾一周高点13,050美元。 上海期货交易所因中国农历新年假期休市，将于2月24日恢复交易。 IndusInd Securities高级研究分析师Jigar Trivedi指出："关税的不确定性与交投清淡令铜价出现波动，因 此我认为基本金属正面临一定压力。" KCM贸易首席市场分析师Tim Waterer指出："铜铝关税不受废除基于国际紧急经济权力法制定的关税的 影响。但国际贸易前景仍存重大疑问，例如现有贸易协定是否将适用新的15%全球关税。" 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体上发文称，他前一天宣布对输美商品征收的"全球进口 关税"税率将从10%提高到15%，"立即生效"。 央视新闻报道，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）表示，将从美国东部时间2月24日起停止征收依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）开征的关税。 摩根大通（J ...