Core Insights - China continues to attract foreign investment, maintaining its position as the largest recipient among developing economies, with actual foreign investment reaching $116.24 billion in 2024 [5][27][34] - The country is implementing various policies to enhance its investment environment, including the establishment of the "Invest in China" brand and the optimization of the business environment [5][6][27] - The report analyzes foreign investment from multiple dimensions, including overall data, industry focus, international comparisons, and local initiatives [6][9][10] Comprehensive Overview - In 2024, China's actual foreign investment amounted to $116.24 billion, reflecting strong resilience despite a global decline in foreign direct investment [27][34] - The country has a robust economic foundation, a large market, and a well-developed industrial supply chain, which create favorable conditions for foreign investment [27][30] - The report outlines the overall situation of foreign investment in China, including market access, fair competition, and facilitation measures [6][9] Industry Focus - Key sectors such as healthcare, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and technology services are highlighted for their development status, investment opportunities, and policy support [6][10][11] - In 2024, the high-tech manufacturing sector saw significant foreign investment, with $13.51 billion, accounting for 43.4% of total manufacturing foreign investment [43] - The service industry attracted $82.24 billion in foreign investment, representing 70.8% of the total, with strong growth in various sub-sectors [44][46] International Comparison - The report compares China's investment environment with that of other major countries, emphasizing the trends in service industry openness and the role of key open platforms [6][10] - Asia remains the largest source of foreign investment in China, contributing $99.16 billion in 2024, which is 85.3% of the total foreign investment [50][52] Local Initiatives - The report details specific measures taken by regions such as Beijing, Jilin, Shanghai, Fujian, and Chongqing to attract foreign investment and their respective outcomes [6][10][14] - Local governments are enhancing policy frameworks and service levels to improve the effectiveness of foreign investment promotion activities [14][15]

Economic Growth and Investment Trends - The economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters of the year, aligning with expectations (consensus forecast of 5.1%), with a target of 5% for the entire year[6] - Fixed asset investment has turned negative year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in real estate development investment, which has been consistently negative and worsening as of September[6] - The current investment growth rate is at a historical low, with a 40 percentage point decrease in "expansion" compared to the end of last year, primarily due to the impact of long-term special government bonds[6] Consumer Spending and Stability - Consumer spending remains stable, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points, which is crucial for achieving annual targets[6] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant drop to 3.3% year-on-year in September, down 11 percentage points from the previous value[6] - The service sector production index maintained a year-on-year growth of 5.9% from January to September, indicating resilience in service consumption despite pressure on domestic demand[6] Manufacturing and Export Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises remained stable year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous value[6] - The mining and manufacturing sectors showed improvement, with exports increasing by 3.8% year-on-year in September, a significant recovery from a previous decline[6] - High-tech industries reported a year-on-year increase of 10.3% in added value, marking the highest level in six months[6] Future Outlook and Risks - There are concerns about internal demand pressures exceeding previous market forecasts, which may intensify in Q4, suggesting caution in growth expectations for the fourth quarter[6] - The introduction of new counter-cyclical policies, including a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool, indicates ongoing support for achieving the 5% growth target[6] - Risks include potential fluctuations in external demand due to tariffs and trade issues, as well as employment pressures from rapid changes in certain industry dynamics[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, with little pressure to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. However, there was still an obvious "uneven" economic situation [1][7]. - Macro policies have started to actively respond to the "cold" parts of the economy. Two policies targeting fixed - asset investment, especially infrastructure investment, are expected to improve the infrastructure investment growth rate in Q4 and support overall investment [1][2][9]. - For the bond market, insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery support the bond market, but the pricing may be limited. In the absence of significant macro - environment and policy surprises, the bond market may continue the "ceiling - and - floor" volatile trend [2][10]. Summaries by Sections 1. September Economic Data: Differentiation between Strong Production and Slow Demand - The macro - economy in September 2025 had characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The production end was significantly stronger than expected, while demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment were weak. External demand remained resilient, but domestic demand slowed down, especially investment [1][7][8]. - Macro policies have responded. New policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are used to supplement project capital, and the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits to local areas, 10 billion yuan more than last year. These policies are expected to support Q4 investment [1][9]. 2. Industrial Production Shows Strong Performance, Exceeding Market Expectations - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to September was 6.2%. Manufacturing upgrading continued to drive industrial resilience [3][12]. - The service production index in September increased by 5.6% year - on - year, basically flat compared with the previous month [13]. - By industry, the year - on - year growth rates of the automotive and food industries rebounded significantly in September, while those of the ferrous metal processing and electrical machinery industries declined. Emerging product output had high growth rates [15]. 3. Consumption Growth Continues to Slow, Policy Dividends Weaken - In September, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed down again. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.0%, the lowest increase this year. The policy subsidy dividend effect weakened, and the year - on - year growth rates of policy - supported home appliances and furniture declined significantly [4][18][22]. - Service consumption performed better than commodity consumption. The service retail sales in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the 4.6% of commodity retail sales [22]. 4. Investment Growth Declines Overall, Continues to Bottom Out - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [26]. - Manufacturing investment had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 4%, with weakening growth momentum. Equipment purchase investment was still resilient, but some industries were cautious in capital expenditure due to "anti - involution" policies [28][29]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 1.1%, with a further decline. Traditional infrastructure project construction slowed down, and the construction industry's slow production dragged down the investment growth rate. Fiscal policy weakening and local government debt - repayment pressure also affected funds [29]. - Real - estate investment had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 13.9% and was still bottoming out. The decline in real - estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real - estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". More relaxed real - estate policies may be needed [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The national economy of China has shown overall stability in the first three quarters, with a solid advancement in high-quality development under the strong leadership of the central government [1] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The primary industry added value was 580.61 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%, contributing 4.7% to economic growth [2] - The secondary industry added value was 3,640.20 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.9%, contributing 34.6% to economic growth [2] - The tertiary industry added value was 5,929.55 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth [2] - In the third quarter, GDP was 354.50 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] Production and Supply - All sectors showed stable growth, with agriculture increasing by 4.0%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Industrial production grew by 6.1%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to economic growth [3] - The service sector showed steady improvement, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 11.2% [3] Domestic Demand and Trade - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, adding 2.8 percentage points to GDP [4] - Capital formation contributed 17.5% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [5] - Net exports contributed 29.0% to economic growth, adding 1.5 percentage points to GDP [5] Market Dynamics and New Growth Drivers - The digital economy has shown significant support, with revenue from the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 12.1% from January to August [6] - The manufacturing sector is undergoing rapid transformation, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [6] - Investment in high-tech services grew by 6.1%, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth rate [6]

国家统计局新闻发言人表示，三季度GDP增速回落是多种因素共同作用的结果。尽管经济增速有所回 落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。实现全年预期目标（5%左右）有基础有支撑，但也需要付出艰 苦努力。 二是生产继续强于需求。9月工业增加值同比增长6.5%，与9月中国出口增速8.3%相呼应，其中高技术 制造业同比增长10.3%。9月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，其中信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业同 比增长12.8%，体现出产业转型升级对经济的支撑力度。 供需分化的"温差"也在价格中有所体现。三季度GDP平减指数为-1.1%，相比二季度的-1.3%略有收窄， 还需要通过改革发力、政策给力来着力缩小"温差"。尽管四季度受高基数影响，经济增速或许会面临一 定挑战，但通过政策发力，相信全年能够顺利实现5%的增长目标。 一方面，消费和出口的韧性仍强。四季度社零增速或在高基数等因素的影响下，有所放缓。但值得关注 的是，目前政策正在加大对服务消费的支持力度，且服务消费的韧性更强，预计最终消费对GDP的支撑 或有望维持一定韧性。今年9月，商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出培育 服务消费促进平台、丰富高品质服务 ...

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% compared to 3.9%[1] - The contribution of final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively[14] - Q4 economic growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.7%, but achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered feasible[15] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.64%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2[21] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.6% year-on-year, contributing 24.7% to overall industrial growth[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[4] - The "trade-in" policy supported certain categories, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 due to reduced fiscal support[32] - The restaurant sector saw a weak performance, with dining revenue growing only 0.9% year-on-year[33] Investment Trends - From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative cumulative data since August 2020[7] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9%, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%[43] - Infrastructure investment in the electricity, heat, and water production and supply sector increased by 15.3% year-on-year, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth[42] Employment and Policy - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, showing a slight decline, aided by policies supporting employment for college graduates[8] - The government is gradually prioritizing expanding domestic demand and consumption, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical measures[34]

Economic Overview - The national economy is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend in 2023, with GDP growth reaching a cumulative rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, exceeding market expectations of 4.8%[2] - Industrial production has significantly rebounded, with a monthly growth of 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, and surpassing the market forecast of 5.23%[2] Demand and Consumption - Weak demand remains a major constraint on economic recovery, with retail sales growing only 3.0% year-on-year in September, down from 3.4% in August, and below the expected 3.11%[2] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first three quarters stands at 4.5%, indicating a continuous slowdown since May[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has declined by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, falling short of the expected 0.03% growth, with manufacturing investment at 4.0%, down from 5.1%[2] - Infrastructure investment has also weakened, with a cumulative growth of only 1.1%, significantly below the previous 2.0%[2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment has been the largest drag on the economy, with a cumulative decline of 13.9% in the first three quarters, worsening from a 12.9% drop previously[2] - Core indicators such as new construction and sales in the real estate sector continue to show contraction, reflecting a lack of market confidence[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to fall below 5% due to high base effects from last year and ongoing weak demand[2] - The government may need to implement additional policies to stimulate demand and support economic recovery, especially in consumption and investment sectors[2]

一、背景情况 山东省民营经济持续发挥"主力军"作用，成为推动经济增长、促进创新、吸纳就业的重要力量，2024年 全省民营经济增加值占GDP比重达51.7%，新登记经营主体占98.9%。 省统计局立足职能定位，聚焦数据赋能、精准施策，将统计监测、分析研判与服务决策相结合，创新构 建"统计+服务"工作机制，全面助力民营经济高质量发展。 二、主要做法 (一)着力加强民营经济统计工作 一方面，根据民营经济统计监测数据、企业问卷调查及实地调研情况，加强民营经济运行监测，对民营 重点行业、企业打开分析，切实反映民营经济阶段性发展成果，及时发现和解决制约民营经济发展的实 际问题。今年以来，共报送民营经济有关信息、民营经济专题分析40余篇，其中《一季度全省民营经济 运行情况的分析》《关于上半年全省民营经济运行情况的分析》《关于前三季度全省民营经济运行情况 的分析》《关于2024年全省民营经济运行情况的分析》等获省领导同志批示。另一方面，强化部门合 作，联合省工商联开展民营经济发展情况调研，撰写的《关于山东省民营经济转型发展的调研报告》获 得省领导批示。 (三)高效做好民营经济数据提供工作 围绕民营经济发展态势和运行情况，提供 ...

Group 1 - The global financial markets are set to release key economic data this week, with the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being the most anticipated [1] - Major economies including the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Japan will also release inflation data, which will significantly impact central bank monetary policy directions [1] - The US earnings season continues, and investors are advised to closely monitor these data and events to better gauge market trends [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the focus will be on Eurozone data, particularly Germany's September Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to show negative growth [3] - The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index is also expected to remain negative, indicating potential risks to US economic growth [3] - On Tuesday, Canada's CPI is anticipated to remain below the 2% target, while ECB President Lagarde's speech will be closely watched for insights on economic and interest rate outlooks [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the UK CPI data will be released, with market attention on whether the annual rate remains at 3.8% for the third consecutive month [4] - High inflation has previously led to a reassessment of the Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations, which may be influenced by the upcoming inflation report [4] Group 4 - On Thursday, investors will focus on the Eurozone's October Consumer Confidence Index, which has been stable since May [6] - The US initial jobless claims will also be monitored for any significant changes [6] Group 5 - On Friday, Japan's September CPI is expected to accelerate, with the core CPI projected to rise to 2.9% [6] - The US CPI report is anticipated to show an increase to 3.1%, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [8] - Additionally, preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data for October will be released, with particular attention on the pressures facing UK and European manufacturing [8]