——2026 年 1 月信用利差月报 作者 分析师 姚宇彤 2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 配置盘支撑下，1 月信用利差全线收窄 2026 年 1 月，债市整体偏强震荡：年初至中旬股市和商品市场表现强劲， 对债市形成压制；下旬，受获利盘出逃、融资保证金升高等因素影响，权益 市场情绪降温，加之公募基金费率新规正式稿温和落地，缓解债基赎回担忧， 以及央行结构性货币政策工具降息、配置型机构大力买入等因素支撑，债市 呈现修复行情。由于信用债相对利率债更具票息优势，银行、保险"开门红" 增加信用债配置需求，以及摊余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债，1 月 信用债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。 核心观点 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 于丽峰 部门执行总监 冯琳 1 月，债券市场整体偏强震荡，在信用债相对利率债更具票息 优势，银行、保险"开门红"增加信用债配置需求，以及摊 余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债等因素带动下，信用 债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。目前，短久期信用 债利差普遍已压缩至历史低位，中长久期部分品种仍有一定 的利差空间，且考虑到摊余债基开放对 ...

光大证券指出，钢铁行业供给侧在中短期展开的概率有所加强。原因在于：一方面，四季度上市钢企的 亏损情况已接近于2024年Q3、Q4，形势比人强，这增强了必要性；另一方面，2026年初以来，钢铁出 口政策缩紧，而直接/间接出口是2025年钢铁业效益的支柱，这一块在2026年势微，也需要供给侧的政 策来对冲。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁产业指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢 等子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 2月24日，钢铁ETF（515210）涨超2%，钢铁板块迎"开门红"。 消息面上，近期多家钢铁企业公布2026年首月生产"开门红"业绩。阳春新钢铁1月主要指标圆满完成， 产销率达101%并成功开拓海南市场；芜湖新兴多项指标创历史新高，优特钢发运量达近年最好水平； 方大达钢铁、钢、材产量均超额完成计划，自发电率稳定在95%以上。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market experienced a positive start after the holiday, with most product prices significantly increasing. Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by approximately 80 yuan/ton, molybdenum iron prices increased by about 5,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum powder prices went up by around 5 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Key factors influencing the molybdenum market include a reduction in molybdenum product imports during the Spring Festival and a decrease in production from domestic manufacturers, both contributing to rising prices. Additionally, international molybdenum prices fluctuated significantly during the holiday period [1][4]. Group 2: Steel Inventory Data - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises reached 15.11 million tons in early February 2026, an increase of 400,000 tons (2.7%) compared to the previous period, and a rise of 970,000 tons (6.9%) since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - Year-on-year comparisons show a decrease of 1.1 million tons (6.8%) compared to the same period last year, and a reduction of 1.02 million tons (6.3%) compared to two years ago. Regionally, steel inventories increased in Northeast (350,000 tons), Northwest (40,000 tons), Southwest (30,000 tons), and Central South (240,000 tons) regions, while inventories decreased in North China (160,000 tons) and East China (110,000 tons) [2][6].

2月24日，新兴铸管涨5.36%，截至发稿，报5.11元/股，成交2.56亿元，换手率1.32%，总市值202.52亿 元。 资料显示，新兴铸管股份有限公司位于河北省武安市上洛阳村北(2672厂区)，成立日期1997年5月24 日，上市日期1997年6月6日，公司主营业务涉及离心球墨铸铁管及管件、铸造制品、钢铁冶炼及压延加 工、钢塑复合管、钢格板、特种钢管。主营业务收入构成为：铸管及管铸件31.61%，优特钢24.89%， 普钢23.42%，其他产品20.08%。 国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）成立日期2020年1月22日，最新规模39.8亿。今年以来收益4.22%，同类排 名2684/5580；近一年收益30.64%，同类排名2032/4297；成立以来收益77.99%。 国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）基金经理为吴中昊。 截至发稿，吴中昊累计任职时间4年29天，现任基金资产总规模240.55亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 110.52%， 任职期间最差基金回报-17.57%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

人民日报记者 胡婧怡 宋朝军 窦皓 钢坯火红，映照传统产业提质升级的进程；绿电聚合，显现新兴产业成长壮大的澎湃动能；人形机 器人身姿灵动，是未来产业加速培育的生动写照……"十五五"开局之年，春天里，让我们透过3个镜 头，观察现代化产业体系建设的稳健步伐，感受劳动者的奋斗热情。 ——编者 辽宁本钢板材 镜头一：非常规钢生产不断突破设计产能 2月22日一早，不到7点半，辽宁本溪本钢板材热连轧厂2300生产作业区作业长耿明璐已在工作岗 位。 参加班组班前会、查看轧制计划、明确重点品种生产要点……春节假期值班，工作一如往常。"热 轧工序上游连着炼钢，下游连着冷轧，必须保持稳定生产。"耿明璐说。 隆隆声中，烧得通红的钢坯从加热炉中送出，经过粗轧、精轧、冷却、卷取等流程，变成用于生产 管线钢、汽车板、高强钢等产品的钢卷。 作业区温度有30多摄氏度，一圈走下来，耿明璐的额头渗出细密的汗珠。"生产主要通过机房远程 操控，但现场跟踪仍必不可少。"耿明璐解释，"遇到信号波动、带钢轧破甩尾等不稳定情况时，现场人 员可以第一时间发现情况、降低损失。" 2025年，耿明璐带领班组成功突破28毫米超厚规格钢和2190毫米超宽规格钢的轧制 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/24 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/09 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/10 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/11 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/12 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/13 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-24 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-24 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国海关将从 2 月 24 日起停止征收裁定违法的关税 观点分享： 据央视新闻，美国海关与边境保护局 22 日通过其货物系统消息服务表示，依据《国际 紧急经济权力法》征收的关税将不再生效，并且对于从美国东部时间 2 月 24 日起进入消费 市场或从仓库提取用于消费的货物，将不再征收这项关税。该消息还指出，暂停征收此项关 税并不影响特朗普政府征收的任何其他关税。美东时间 23 日周一，美国参议院民主党领袖 舒默宣布，民主党人将阻止任何延长特朗普依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条所实施关税措 施的努力。此举将使特朗普第二个总统任期构建的关税体系面临崩溃风险，因为依据 122 条 款实施的关税将于今夏到期终止。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 期指 | ★★★★ | 期指：马年仍有望开门红。假期间外盘表现平稳，略有上涨，隔夜美股因 AI 忧虑及关税不确 定而调整。后期展望来看，首先，假期间未出现明显超预期黑天 ...

中新网漳州2月24日电 (林军杰)23日，福建漳州举行2026年民营经济代表人士新春座谈会，漳州市委书 记王进足与漳州籍民营企业家代表齐聚一堂，共叙乡情，共谋发展。座谈会由漳州市市长魏东主持。 图为2月23 日，2026年漳州市民营经济代表人士新春座谈会现场。林军杰 摄 现场，漳州食品企业代表、化学原料和化学制品制造企业代表、冶金新材料企业代表、数字经济企业代 表、人工智能企业代表、生物科技企业代表、绿色纸业产业代表，以及漳籍台胞代表、行业商会代表等 20多人围桌而坐，畅所欲言。大家一致认为，人工智能是未来产业升级的关键，主动拥抱AI，将抢占 发展商机。 当天，漳州市人才联合会会长、蒋氏(漳州)投资有限公司董事长蒋艾青作为食品企业代表发言，他表 示，联合会将聚焦漳州食品工业、冶金新材料、新能源、数字服务等"9+5"产业，全力助力乡亲互通有 无，抱团发展。 "中国民营企业500强"的三宝集团，是一家拥有国内外先进装备的综合性现代化钢铁龙头企业，公司董 事长王光文在发言时点赞漳州出台多项重点举措支持民营经济发展，政策红利也惠及三宝集团。对于 2026年，王光文满怀信心和期待，他呼吁企业家们继续实干争优，再攀新高， ...

2月24日，A股迎来马年首个交易日，三大指数全线上涨：上证指数高开1.15%，深证成指高开1.52%，创业板指高开1.7%。有色金属、油气、算力等板块 指数涨幅居前。 对于节后走势，多家券商机构表示乐观。"随着一系列条件的满足和不确定性因素的落地，建议大家重整旗鼓，备战马年的第一波上涨周期。"广发证券策 略首席分析师刘晨明认为。 中国银河证券策略首席分析师杨超也表示，春节假期后，在政策预期、流动性支持与产业趋势催化下，市场震荡上行概率较大，未来一段时间A股市场或 以政策催化为核心驱动力，资金将围绕政策导向的产业主线与主题机会展开博弈，呈现"政策热点轮动、风格切换快速"的特征。 兴业证券经济与金融研究院策略研究首席分析师张启尧认为，对于A股而言，节前A股跟随海外资产调整后已释放了一定的风险，节后A股即将进入一段 高胜率窗口，继续看好A股节后迎来新一轮上行。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | 4129.13 | 14313.86 | 1830.15 | | +47.06 +1.15% +213.67 +1.52% ...