编辑 "这个加息幅度，已经超出了大多数人的预期。"某全球知名投资公司首席分析师表示，紧缩货币政策的决策让资本市场瞬间进入恐慌模式。他进一步指 出，美联储此举实际上是为了应对日益严峻的通货膨胀问题，然而，这种"刀刃上的舞蹈"最终可能会让美国经济付出更多的代价。 48小时内，全球经济风云突变！美联储突然宣布重大决策，引发市场震荡 6月18日，美联储突然宣布将利率上调50个基点，市场瞬间陷入恐慌。这个"出其不意"的举动不仅打破了市场预期，也让全球经济的脉搏停顿了一瞬。仅 仅24小时后，全球股市暴跌，尤其是科技股遭遇重创。许多分析师纷纷表示，这一决定将引发经济衰退的连锁反应。 编辑 编辑 而在此之后，6月19日，美联储再次宣布了一项新的政策调整，决定将货币紧缩步伐加速。这一举动让不少经济学家担心，美联储的决策是否会让美国经 济陷入"衰退深渊"。某国际银行分析师指出，"这意味着美国可能会进入一个长期的经济低迷期，而全球经济的脆弱性也将更加暴露。" 全球股市在短短48小时内发生剧变，尤其是美股和欧洲股市。投资者的恐慌情绪直接推动了股指的暴跌，尤其是高风险领域的科技股，损失严重。某著名 经济学家分析认为，科技股的暴跌只是一 ...

从上交所获悉，近日，上交所与卡塔尔金融中心在上海联合举办"卡塔尔金融中心投资合作培训"，来自 能源、建筑、医药、信息技术、金融、制造等行业的37家沪深上市公司及拟上市公司的52名企业代表参 会。 ...

金十数据6月19日讯，近日，上海证券交易所与卡塔尔金融中心在上海联合举办"卡塔尔金融中心投资合 作培训"，来自能源、建筑、医药、信息技术、金融、制造等行业的37家沪深上市公司及拟上市公司的 52名企业代表参会。培训围绕卡塔尔投资环境、运营实践及融资政策等内容展开深入交流，一方面帮助 参会企业进一步加深对中东地区营商环境的认识，将投资视野从沙特、阿联酋等国家延伸至卡塔尔；另 一方面展现我国优质上市公司高质量发展成果及拥抱国际化的积极意愿，为中国企业开拓中东市场及推 动中卡市场合作挖掘新机遇。 （上交所） 上交所举办卡塔尔金融中心投资合作培训 ...

美东时间 6 月 18 日周三，美国三大股指涨跌不一，美联储维持利率不变。投资者担忧美国 可能更直接军事介入以色列与伊朗的交火。伊朗最高领袖表示，美国军事干预将招致无法挽 回的后果。 稳定币第一股 Circle 涨近 34% ，创 6 月 5 日美国 IPO 以来最大单日涨幅。 WTI 收于每桶 75 美元上方，创下 1 月以来的最高收盘价。 美联储维持利率不变 截至收盘，道指跌 0.1% ，报 42171.66 点；标普 500 指数跌 0.03% ，报 5980.87 点； 纳指涨 0.13% ，报 19546.27 点。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/18，不作投资推荐） 美联储公布 6 月利率决议，将基准利率维持在 4.25% ～ 4.50% 不变，连续第四次会议按兵 不动，符合市场预期。 美联储表示，前景的不确定性已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。美联储将 2025 年 GDP 预估 下调至 1.4% ，将通胀预期上调至 3% 。 根据美联储的点阵图预测， 2025 年预计实施两次降息，共 50 个基点 ，这与三月份的预期 相符。然而， 2026 年降息幅度将仅为 25 个基点，之前预 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美联储维持利率不变，全球风险偏好整体降温 明道雨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | | | 比 | | | | | | 202506 ...

继《 深夜，特朗普放出狠话，市场集体暴动 》之后，昨夜今晨的市场依旧充满各种戏剧性——特朗普 破口大骂鲍威尔，但美联储依然拒绝降息，而原油市场也在各方表态中反复横跳。 当地时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨 0.13% ，标普 500 指数跌 0.03% ，道指跌 0.1% 。 Circle 大涨超 34% ，创 IPO 以来最大单日涨幅，股价站上 200 美元，再创新高。大型 科技股涨多跌少，英特尔涨超 3% ，特斯拉涨超 1% ，苹果、微软、英伟达、奈飞等小幅上涨； 谷歌、亚马逊跌超 1% ， Meta 小幅下跌。 热门中概股多数收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 0.82% 。京东、爱奇艺跌超 2% ，理想汽车跌近 2% ，阿里巴巴、百度、哔哩哔哩均跌超 1% 。 01 连续第四次维持利率不变 美东时间 6 月 18 日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间 依然维持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 。至此， FOMC 已连续四次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。 联储自去年 9 月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅 100 个基点，自今年 1 月特朗普上任以来，联储 一直按兵不动。 ...

关税，对日本的经济造成重大打击！ 6月18日最新披露的数据显示，在美国关税冲击下，日本5月份出口额同比下降1.7%，为八个月来首次下滑，这加剧了日本经济陷入技术性衰退的担忧。数据显 示，5月份，日本对美国的出口同比下降11.1%。 同日，日本财务省公布的贸易统计初值显示，日本5月的贸易逆差为6376亿日元，系连续第二个月呈现逆差。 当地时间周二（17日），美国总统特朗普称，日本在贸易谈判中表现"强硬"。特朗普补充道："但最终我们会发函说明'要么接受条件，要么终止贸易'。不过达成协 议仍有希望。"此前一天，日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普在加拿大举行会谈，但未就关税谈判达成共识。 日本央行行长植田和男近日曾警告称，关税可能通过多种渠道对日本经济产生影响。植田和男称，将密切关注广泛的指标来评估经济和物价走势。 关税冲击日本经济 日本财务省周三（18日）公布的数据显示，日本5月份出口出现八个月来的首次下降，表明美国的全面关税正威胁着该国脆弱的经济。 数据显示，5月份，日本出口总额同比下降1.7%，而4月份的出口同比增长了2%。日本5月出口下降主要受汽车、钢铁和矿物燃料拖累。具体来看，日本5月对美国 的出口同比下降11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of various industries, particularly focusing on consumer, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors, highlighting their performance during different economic phases and the potential for recovery in the future [8][10][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market showed a slight decline at the opening but the drop narrowed by the close, with the CSI All Share Index experiencing a minor decrease [1]. - The CSI 300 Index saw a slight increase, while small-cap stocks faced more significant declines [2]. - Consumer stocks are on the rise, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong has recently experienced a downturn after weeks of gains, approaching a state of undervaluation [5][6][7]. - The pharmaceutical sector faced a decline in earnings from 2022 to the first half of 2024, but signs of recovery were noted in early 2024, with significant gains in the first quarter [11]. - The consumer sector has historically faced downturns during economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2012-2013 economic slowdown, but has also seen rapid recoveries following stimulus measures [13][16]. Group 3: Economic Cycles - The cyclical nature of industries means that periods of low earnings growth and low valuations are often followed by recovery phases where both earnings and valuations improve [26][28]. - The current consumer sector is compared to the pharmaceutical sector two years ago, indicating it is still in a low phase before a potential recovery [19][28]. - The article emphasizes that all sectors, including finance and energy, experience similar cyclical patterns, suggesting that investment opportunities arise during low periods [20][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly economic index rebounded. The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index of WEI decreased, while the demand sub - index and the supply - demand gap increased [1]. - Production declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly, while the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased [1]. - High - frequency infrastructure indicators declined. The cement shipping rate and cement mill operating rate decreased, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased [1]. - The decline in commercial housing sales narrowed. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved, but the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased [2]. - Consumption rebounded. The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also increased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers decreased [2]. - Exports rebounded. South Korea's export year - on - year in early June increased, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also improved [2]. - Pork prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork decreased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased [3]. - Industrial product prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index and Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price, and cement price index decreased [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the WEI demand sub - index was 5.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the supply - demand gap was 1.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 6.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was - 2.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 41.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 39.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The asphalt plant operating rate was 31.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 4.7%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 10.2%, down 11.5 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars was 19.0%, up 13.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 21.2%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early June was 5.4%, up 5.3 percentage points from late May. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 35.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 18.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was - 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 9.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.6%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 11.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Brent crude oil spot price was - 16.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price was - 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price was - 30.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 1.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous value [3].