Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia has pushed up ore prices, strengthening cost-side support [3] - High spot premiums indicate relatively strong spot demand [3] Bearish Factors - Continuous accumulation of pure nickel social inventory, with high levels in SHFE nickel and LME inventories [3] - Slowing consumption growth in the new energy sector and a decline in the proportion of ternary batteries have weakened nickel demand [3] Trading Advisory Views - The fundamentals are mixed. In the short term, it should be treated as oscillating with a slight upward bias. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the ore end and the marginal changes in inventory [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - SHFE Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 124,060 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 200 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.16% [4] - SHFE Nickel Continuous 1: Latest value 124,230 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,900 yuan, weekly decrease rate of -1.51% [4] - SHFE Nickel Continuous 2: Latest value 124,430 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,860 yuan, weekly decrease rate of -1.47% [4] - SHFE Nickel Continuous 3: Latest value 124,660 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,780 yuan, weekly decrease rate of -1.47% [4] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,805 US dollars/ton, weekly decrease of 45 US dollars, weekly decrease rate of -1.41% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,965 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 35 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0% [4] - Stainless Steel Continuous 1: Latest value 12,965 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 75 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.58% [4] - Stainless Steel Continuous 2: Latest value 13,005 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 75 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.58% [4] - Stainless Steel Continuous 3: Latest value 13,025 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 60 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.46% [4] Other Data - Nickel Futures: Open interest decreased by 22.4% to 55,628 lots; trading volume decreased by 22.12% to 124,511 lots; warehouse receipts increased by 1.20% to 23,501 tons; main contract basis decreased by 52.17% to -825 yuan/ton [4] - Stainless Steel Futures: Open interest increased by 0.45% to 125,581 lots; trading volume decreased by 20.49% to 94,985 lots; warehouse receipts decreased by 1.48% to 157,878 tons; main contract basis increased by 3.85% to 675 yuan/ton [4] - Spot Nickel: Jinchuan Nickel, Imported Nickel, 1 Electrolytic Nickel, and Nickel Beans all decreased by 0.16%, and Electrowon Nickel decreased by 0.12% [4] - Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons; LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,924 tons to 195,222 tons; stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons; nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [4][6] Data Charts Nickel - Nickel internal and external market trends [8] - Nickel spot average price [11] - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality [13] - China's primary nickel monthly total supply including imports seasonality [13] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality [14] - LME nickel inventory seasonality [14] - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) price [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality [15] Nickel Iron - Ni≥14% Indonesian high-nickel pig iron (arrival duty-paid) average price [17][19] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality [18] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex-factory price (national average) [19] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality [20] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Profit margin seasonality of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans [22][23] - Profit seasonality of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China [22][23] - Average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate [24] - Premium of battery-grade nickel sulfate [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality [25] Stainless Steel - Profit margin seasonality of China's 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils [26] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality [27] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality [28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Macro利好推动短期反弹，但基本面未实质改善，高供应与需求疲软制约价格上行空间，预计震荡承压运行为主 [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 View Summary - Macro利好推动短期反弹，但基本面未实质改善，高供应与需求疲软制约价格上行空间，预计震荡承压运行为主 [12] 3.2 Fundamental - Raw Materials Nickel Iron - In April this year, China's nickel iron production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's nickel iron production rebounded, with overall supply increasing. On May 16, the NPI price was 955 yuan per nickel, the same as last week's price [16] Scrap Stainless Steel - On May 16, the price of scrap stainless steel 304 was 9,450 yuan per ton, a 2.16% increase from last week's price [19] Chromium Iron - Chromium iron production continued to rebound. In April this year, chromium iron production was 698,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.82%. On May 16, the price of high - carbon chromium iron was 8,200 yuan per 50 - base ton, a 1.20% decrease from last week [22] 3.3 Fundamental - Supply and Demand Supply - According to Mysteel data, the stainless steel production in April was 3.5025 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and the planned production in May was 3.4899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.36%. From the current production plan data, the reduction occurred in the 300 - series [28] Demand - From the data, the apparent demand for stainless steel in March rebounded significantly compared to February [28] 3.4 Fundamental - Price - This week, the spot price of stainless steel rose slightly. On May 16, the spot price was 13,370 yuan per ton, a 1.13% increase from last week [43] 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - As of May 16, 2025, Mysteel data showed that the stainless steel social inventory (78 samples) was about 1.0584 million tons, of which the 300 - series inventory was about 683,200 tons [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the entire有色金属 industry. Instead, it offers specific trading strategies for different metals, which can be considered as implicit investment suggestions for each metal sub - sector. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It notes that market risk sentiment has improved due to potential trade agreements, but US macro - data is mixed, affecting the dollar and metal prices. For most metals, it believes that current prices are in an adjustment phase after a period of movement, with varying degrees of uncertainty in future supply and demand and price trends [3]. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 1.98% to $3239.6/oz, London silver rose 1.3% to $32.63/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.16% to 100.88, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.449%. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.2067 [2]. - **Important News**: Japan seeks a third - round US - Japan trade negotiation, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade talks. US macro - data shows mixed results, with the 4 - month retail sales rate at 0.1%, and the 4 - month PPI annual rate at 2.4%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 91.7% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk premium of precious metals may be cleared in the short term, but considering inflation and trade uncertainties, they are in an adjustment phase after a rapid rise [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips with light positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $9600, up $8 or 0.08%. LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,600 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1523 short tons to 168,563 short tons [5]. - **Important News**: US April PPI decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment supports prices. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US scrap copper imports may flow back to China. The scrap - refined copper spread has decreased, and some enterprises have cut production. Copper inventory has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract rose to 2995 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions increased, and overseas market prices also rose [8]. - **Important News**: Overseas and domestic spot alumina transactions occurred, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 3.246 million tons [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The balance between supply and demand has tightened due to increased maintenance capacity, but new production and potential resumption of production may change the situation [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect high - level fluctuations, consider shorting if supply - demand returns to surplus; wait and see for arbitrage and options [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract rose to 20,295 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [13]. - **Important News**: The US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, and China's April social financing and other financial data were announced. Aluminum inventory decreased by 8000 tons [13][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of Sino - US trade relations improves demand expectations, and low inventory in May may support prices [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect prices to oscillate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 1.25% to $2726/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.64% to 22,595 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [18]. - **Important News**: US April PPI data was released, and domestic zinc inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 863,000 tons [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global zinc mine supply is increasing, and domestic production is expected to be stable in May. Supply growth exceeds demand growth, and inventory may accumulate [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: consider shorting on rallies, beware of capital - driven price fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 0.52% to $2004.5/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 rose 0.62% to 17,025 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [23]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 560,000 tons, and sellers' willingness to sell increased while buyers were cautious [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Both supply and demand of lead are weak, and prices may oscillate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose to 125,230 yuan/ton. Spot premiums decreased [26]. - **Important News**: A nickel project in Tanzania is planned to start construction, and a Philippine company's Q1 net profit increased significantly [26][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term news affects sentiment, but fundamentals change little. Supply may increase after weather improves, and demand is entering the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling options within the range [30]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2507 contract fell to 13,020 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable. Social inventory decreased by 0.42% [32]. - **Important News**: Not provided in the text. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term prices may oscillate above cost. 300 - series production is decreasing, and demand is affected by macro - factors [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term strong oscillations; wait and see for arbitrage [34]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose 0.36% to 8410 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable [36]. - **Important News**: A new project's environmental impact report was publicized [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to increase in May, while demand from organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon is weak. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is over 800,000 tons [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rallies; wait and see for options; conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [36][38]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract fell 0.68% to 37,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined slightly [39]. - **Important News**: A report predicted global photovoltaic market growth [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand both decreased in May, and there may be a shortage of deliverable goods for the 06 contract. The 07 contract may follow fundamental logic [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short the PS2507 contract; or short - term long PS2506 and short PS2507, then switch to short - side allocation; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; conduct long PS2506 and short PS2507 arbitrage [42][43]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2507 contract fell to 64,120 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose slightly [44]. - **Important News**: A futures brand was solicited, and a UK miner faced export obstacles [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Low - cost producers have profits, demand is weak, and there is an oversupply expectation in May and June [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [45]. Tin - **Market Review**: Shanghai tin rose 0.18% to 265,850 yuan/ton, and spot trading was light [47]. - **Important News**: Indonesia's tin exports increased year - on - year in April, and US PPI data was released [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment is positive, and short - term supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is relieved [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term oscillations, pay attention to supply; wait and see for options [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the overall supply of nickel elements is in surplus, with significant upward pressure but cost support at the bottom. It is expected to show a weak oscillatory trend in the near - term range, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the price rebounded due to the impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and tariff adjustments, the overall supply of stainless steel is in surplus, with large upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 126,100 yuan/ton and closed at 123,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 137,729 lots, and the open interest was 63,702 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract showed a downward trend. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. China's social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to April were lower than market expectations, while the M2 money supply growth rate increased by 1 percentage point in April. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased slightly in the morning, but the nickel price fell again during the day. Downstream enterprises mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums of various brands were mostly stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 23,344 tons, and LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons to 199,146 tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,580 lots, and the open interest was 127,690 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract also showed a downward trend. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The shortage of nickel ore supply still exists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at + 26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by 0.65 - 1 US dollars, with the overall price rising slightly. There were no new nickel - iron transactions recently. In the spot market, the stainless - steel price on the futures market fell, the inquiry and trading atmosphere weakened significantly, and the transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium for 304/2B was 305 - 505 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 941.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 出口订单大增 不锈钢价格连续上涨 镍品种 2025-05-15日沪镍主力合约2506开于123230元/吨，收于125230元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%，当日成交量为 136563手，持仓量为63077手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘跳空低开后振荡上涨，日盘开盘后继续振荡上涨，午后走平，收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日 大幅减少，持仓量有所减少。中国1-4月社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元，市场预估为16.58 万亿元，1-3月为15.18万亿元。中国1-4月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元，预估为10.47万亿元，1-3月为9.77万亿元。 4月末货币供应量M2同比增长8%，较上月提高1个百分点。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上涨约1075 元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，日内镍价再度上幅反弹，下游企业刚需采购为主，精炼镍现货成交整 体有所好转，各品牌现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2150元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至 200元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为2 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The domestic "One Bank, One Commission, One Administration" policy slightly exceeded expectations, and the Sino - US negotiation achieved significant progress, but the current tariff level remains high, which may limit market optimism. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper remains tight, while consumption shows signs of marginal weakening, making it difficult for copper prices to continue rising in the short term [1]. - The domestic aluminum ingot is approaching its production capacity limit, and the continuous decline in short - term inventory strongly supports aluminum prices. However, due to the current seasonally weak consumption, the sustainability of demand improvement may face challenges, restricting the rebound height of aluminum prices [3]. - The port inventory of lead concentrate continues to rise, the waste inventory is limited, and the downstream battery enterprises' holiday has been extended. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term commodity sentiment is strong, and the medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. - The port inventory of zinc concentrate continues to rise, and the zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. The zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, but the domestic warehouse receipts remain at a low level. The Russian lead - zinc mine's expected shutdown in June may boost zinc prices from an emotional perspective [6]. - The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease. The impact of tariffs on the demand side remains to be observed. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may shift downward [7][8]. - The cost of nickel is expected to ease, and the spot demand is weak. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish mindset [9]. - The short - term tariff change of lithium carbonate will bring additional orders, and the peak season is expected to continue. The futures price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream operating rates and domestic inventory changes [11]. - The supply of alumina is subject to continuous disturbances, and the new production capacity has increased uncertainty. The cost support continues to decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market shows a differentiated trend of narrow cost fluctuations and rising spot prices, with significantly improved steel mill profits. The short - term market is resilient, but the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the game between terminal recovery intensity and the off - season cycle [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9592/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 4075 to 185,575 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 41.8%. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 21,000 to 50,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it changed from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 250 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1680 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract today is 78,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $9500 - $9700/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed up 1.16% at $2522/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,255 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 3000 to 545,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 62,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased by 8000 to 471,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi decreased by 4000 to 93,000 tons. The spot in East China was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract today is 20,050 - 20,320 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $2480 - $2550/ton [3]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.16% at 16,937 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $9 to $1984/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 48,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 47,600 tons. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side fluctuation [4]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 1.69% at 22,605 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose by $40 to $2732.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,840 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1600 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 168,000 tons. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,300 tons. The Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices emotionally. The zinc price has rebounded slightly [6]. Tin - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 262,070 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 8179 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15 to 2775 tons. The domestic tin ore is gradually resuming production, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $30,000 - $33,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated upward. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 125,230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,800/ton, up 0.35%. The price of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron in the market continued to weaken. The expected operating range for the SHFE nickel main contract today is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $15,000 - $16,300/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 64,727 yuan, down 0.13%. The LC2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan, up 3.13%. The main contract's closing price was at a premium of 250 yuan to the MMLC average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The short - term tariff change will bring additional orders, and the futures price is likely to fluctuate. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 64,200 - 66,000 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 14, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.54% to 2941 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the 07 contract. The overseas price also increased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased to 209,800 tons. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3050 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,080 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased to 158,809 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1.113 million tons. The short - term market is resilient, and the medium - to - long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season [15].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

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