中辉有色观点 | 200 | 111 | 197 | 1 | I | 1 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N | C | 1 | E | | | | 金银：关税谈判情绪和通胀降温影响，黄金震荡 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 767.68 | 772.28 | -0. 60% | 804 | -4. 46% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3255 | 3242 | 0. 39% | 3310 | -1.69% | | 白银 | SHFE 白 银 | 8245 | 8232 | 0. 16% | 8235 | 0. 12% | | | COMEX白银 | 33 | 33 | 0. 90% | 33 | 1.47% | | | 上海金银比 | 93. 40 | 93.81 | -0. 44% | 97.37 | -4. 07% | | 比价 | COME ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing challenges in its smelting operations, with significant losses reported, and is under pressure to improve its market performance and investor confidence [16][19][22]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - As of May 13, 2025, the company's stock closed at 15.98 yuan, up 0.38%, with a turnover rate of 1.02% and a trading volume of 243,700 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 389 million yuan [1]. - The company has seen a decline in institutional holdings, which may be influenced by market conditions and investment strategies [3]. - The company’s stock has underperformed compared to its peers, with a significant drop in value attributed to poor earnings performance and market sentiment [12][19]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Management - The company reported a net profit increase of only 9% in the first quarter, significantly lower than competitors like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which saw net profit increases of 62% and 90%, respectively [7][12]. - The smelting segment has been a major source of losses, with the company’s smelting capacity at only 750,000 tons per year, which is lower than industry peers [16][19]. - The company plans to increase its copper smelting capacity by 33% in 2025, despite previous losses, indicating a strategy to enhance production [18]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions and Future Outlook - The company is considering strategic partnerships to improve management and operational efficiency, particularly in light of its challenges in the smelting sector [20]. - The management has emphasized the importance of risk management in its hedging strategies, despite facing losses in its futures trading [5][21]. - The company is committed to optimizing its resource allocation and enhancing operational efficiency to improve its financial performance [19].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 13 日 热点品种 塑料： 裕龙石化 1 线 HDPE 等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至 85%左右，目前开 工率处于中性水平。PE 下游开工率环比下降 0.20 个百分点，农膜原料库存和农 膜订单继续下降，农膜逐步进入淡季，包装膜订单继续小幅下降，整体 PE 下游 开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。上周末累库幅度较大，工作日正常去库，石 化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。美国加征关税不利于塑料下游制品出口同时聚乙 烯上游乙烷进口受限。宏观情绪提振叠加地缘风险增加，原油价格触底反弹。供 应上，新增产能山东新时代线性、惠州埃克森美孚一期线性新近投产，新增部分 检修装置，不过榆林化工等检修装置计划开车，下游还未完全恢复，以前期订单 生产为主，地膜逐步进入淡季，下游其他需求一般，目前新单跟进缓慢，下游开 工有所下降，不过中美贸易谈判提振市场情绪，现货交投好转，建议塑料空单逐 步止盈离场。 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂盘面开盘后低位震运行荡，收盘价 63727.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Tiangong Technology Co., Ltd. (Tiangong Co., stock code: 920068.BJ) was listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a closing price of 20.17 yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 411.93% from the opening price [1] Company Overview - Tiangong Co. specializes in the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials, utilizing sponge titanium and other metal elements to create products in various forms such as plates, pipes, and wires, which are widely used in the chemical and consumer electronics industries [1] Shareholding Structure - Before the issuance, Tiangong Investment held 75.58% of the company's shares, which decreased to 68.57% (pre-over-allotment) and 67.63% (post-over-allotment) after the issuance [1] - Zhu Xiaokun, Yu Yumei, and Zhu Zefeng, who are the actual controllers of the company, hold shares through Tiangong Investment, with Zhu Xiaokun directly holding 2.47% of the shares, which will decrease to 2.24% (pre-over-allotment) and 2.21% (post-over-allotment) [2] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 383 million yuan, 1.035 billion yuan, and 801 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net profits of 70.31 million yuan, 175 million yuan, and 174 million yuan for the same years [8] - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, were approximately 1.217 billion yuan, with total equity of about 1.047 billion yuan [9] Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - Tiangong Co. raised a total of 236.4 million yuan, with a net amount of 206.32 million yuan after deducting issuance costs of 30.08 million yuan [6] - The company plans to use the raised funds for the construction of a production line with an annual capacity of 3,000 tons of high-end titanium and titanium alloy rods and wires, with a total investment of 400 million yuan [7] Market and Business Challenges - The company is facing inquiries regarding the decline in line material revenue in the first half of 2024, with specific requests for data on sales volume and reasons for the decline [4] - There are concerns about the company's ability to maintain business sustainability and the impact of increased ESG requirements from customers on sales [5]

| | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | | SMM 1#锡 | 262800 | 259600 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 900 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | 长江 1#锡 | 263300 | 260100 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -43.01 | -158.07 | 115.06 | 72.79% | 美元/吨 | | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | 进口盈亏 | -2373.05 | -9430.59 | 7057. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 13 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，铜陵有色5月12日在业绩说明会上表示，公司预计行业未来发展趋势如下：（一） 预计铜需求具有长期增长趋势。在未来能源转型与人工智能发展浪潮下，铜市场仍存在较大增长潜力。 首先是数据中心建设。大型数据中心的建设需求急剧上升，大量的铜用于电力传输、存储和散热系统。 其次是可再生能源领域。清洁能源技术正在迅速发展，如风电、光伏、储能等，不断推升铜的消费量。 最后，新能源汽车的快速发展也成为铜需求的重要驱动力。（二）铜精矿供应紧张，进口矿加工费下行 压力大。（三）铜材加工行业正加速向高端化制造与绿色可持续发展方向转型升级。 铜陵有色：预计铜需求具有长期增长趋势 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 12 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.77%至 78260 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识及相关贸易协议，结果超出市场预期， 全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，美元指数隔夜大涨，压制了隔夜有色金 属表现，钱铜价维持高位小幅震荡。现货市场，高月差、高铜价背景下， 下游企业入市采购情绪低迷，大多维持刚需采购为主，静待交割换月， 现货成交氛围较为清淡。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价继续回归 基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼厂产出后续存在下滑趋势， 不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小， 消费表现依然稳中有进，但高月差抑制了近期消费表现，铜价或继续维 持高 位震荡 。技 术上看 ，沪铜 短期维 持偏 强震荡 ，整体 运行于 74500-80000 之间，近期关注 78500 一线压力，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 镍： 截至 5 月 12 日收盘，沪镍主力 06 合约上涨 2%至 126130 元/吨。宏观 面，美国 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数下降，核心 PCE 同环比回落，通胀 降温。外部环境影响下国内制造业 PMI 回落。 ...