Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market's recent rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies benefiting upstream cycle sectors, and short - term capital inflows due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit - loan data. Wait for clearer policy and market trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong as the market - driving effect of anti - involution policy expectations since July is over, and the bond market is likely to have a repair market [3]. - Gold is in a window supported by both "rising interest - rate cut expectations" and "geopolitical uncertainties" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. For silver, low - buying and holding is a good strategy [4]. - Most commodities in the steel, coal, and coke sectors are expected to move in a narrow or wide - range oscillation in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy expectations, and cost changes [6][7][9]. - Copper prices may be weak but the expected peak season in September will limit the decline. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by market sentiment and will oscillate. Aluminum - related products' prices face downward pressure due to supply increases, while industrial silicon and polysilicon have different trends and investment opportunities [14][15][19]. - Oil prices are under pressure. High and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Asphalt is supported by low supply and inventory but is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, polyolefins, PVC, urea, soda ash, and glass all have their own supply - demand characteristics and are expected to have different short - term price trends [24][25][27]. - Protein meal prices are rising, and a long - position strategy is recommended. Most oils are strong, and a long - position strategy is also suggested. Livestock and poultry products such as pigs and eggs have complex supply - demand situations and are expected to oscillate. Corn has a short - term rebound but a mid - term weakening trend [39][41][42]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak trend. Cotton's 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the medium - long term [46][49]. 3. Summary by Category Financials - **Stock Index**: A - share market was flat yesterday. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is significant. The stock market's rise is driven by multiple factors. Wait for clearer trends before adjusting positions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rose slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. Gold is supported by multiple factors, and silver can be held through low - buying [4]. Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke - **Rebar**: Futures prices were slightly down. Production increased, inventory rose, and demand improved slightly. Exports remained high. It is expected to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fell. Supply decreased, demand was mixed, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected by inspections, and demand was strong. It is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected，and demand was good. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both futures prices weakened. They are affected by policies, cost, and supply - demand factors and are expected to oscillate widely [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices were slightly down. Affected by macro factors, inventory changes, and weak demand, copper prices may be weak but limited by the peak - season expectation [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices fell slightly. Affected by inventory, price differentials, and supply - demand, they are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Aluminum - related Products**: Prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy were weak. Supply is expected to increase, and prices face downward pressure [16][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was strong, and polysilicon was weak. There are different investment opportunities [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices rose. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is changing. The market focuses on production uncertainties [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell for six consecutive days. Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand, oil prices are under pressure [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply may decrease, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Rubber**: Futures prices rose. Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX, PTA, MEG**: Prices of related products rose slightly. Affected by cost and demand, PTA may be under pressure, and MEG may adjust weakly [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate as inventory is expected to increase slightly in August with limited import and stable demand [31]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will recover in August, and the upside is limited without significant cost increases [32]. - **PVC**: Market pressure eases, inventory decreases slowly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [33][34]. - **Urea**: Futures prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the Indian tender can relieve some pressure. It is expected to oscillate widely and weakly [35]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely with a weak sentiment [36]. - **Glass**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate widely [37]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Prices rose. U.S. soybeans had strong sales, and domestic prices were boosted by external and cost factors. A long - position strategy is recommended [39]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. A long - position strategy is suggested [40][41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and policy factors. Egg prices have a complex situation with a possible seasonal rebound but a short - term bearish sentiment [42][43]. - **Corn**: Futures prices rebounded technically, but the mid - term is expected to be weak [44]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: Prices are expected to continue to be weak due to production increase expectations and domestic price adjustments [46]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton fell. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [47][49].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has seen a rapid increase in prices for various industrial products, driven by policy initiatives and infrastructure projects, although there are increasing divergences among private equity firms regarding the outlook for cyclical stocks [1][2]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated capacity [1]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has sparked optimism in the infrastructure sector [1]. Commodity Price Trends - There is a clear divergence in the long-term price trends of commodities, with some analysts noting that the current environment differs from the commodity boom of 2016 due to a lack of short-term demand resonance [2]. - The current demand cycle for real estate and traditional infrastructure is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles, impacting overall commodity prices [2]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The recent strong rebound in A-share cyclical stocks is attributed to favorable policies and the fact that these stocks are currently at historically low valuations, with institutions holding fewer shares [4]. - The economic recovery is expected to boost demand for bulk commodities, supported by government measures aimed at optimizing supply-demand relationships [4]. Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in sectors with limited new supply, such as non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from global market competitiveness [6]. - There is a strategy of combining short-term speculation with long-term investments, particularly in industry leaders that may perform well post-merger and restructuring [7]. Sector-Specific Focus - Investment interest is particularly directed towards upstream resource sectors, especially industrial products with limited new supply, such as copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from overseas demand expansion [7]. - Some private equity firms have begun to build positions in sectors like new energy, coal, and building materials, which have seen significant price adjustments in recent years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The three major stock indices opened higher on Wednesday morning but quickly turned negative, with the ChiNext index experiencing a decline of 1% [1] Market Performance - As of 10:10 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3620.35 points, down 0.44% - The Shenzhen Component Index was at 15184.61 points, down 0.38% - The ChiNext Index was at 3080.90 points, down 1.01% [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors showed positive performance, with notable gains in the restaurant, semiconductor, photoresist, integrated circuit, chip, and shipping sectors - Conversely, the white liquor, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, steel, vaccine, and banking sectors experienced significant declines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Market bets on Fed rate cuts decreased in the early part of the week, but the July non - farm payrolls data triggered concerns about US employment and economic downturn, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and August non - farm payrolls [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable economic progress in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on using existing policies more effectively, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and the progress of US negotiations with China, Mexico and other economies should be monitored [5]. - Asset views: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: Market bets on Fed rate cuts fell in the first half of the week due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and rising PCE in June. However, the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rising unemployment rate under a declining labor participation rate, increasing expectations of US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts [5]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting emphasized using existing policies effectively, with limited new policies. The July composite PMI was above the critical point, and attention should be paid to US economic negotiations [5]. - Asset: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, with stronger policy - driven logic in the second half of the year and higher probability of incremental policies in Q4. Overseas, concerns about US economic slowdown boost gold. The long - term weak US dollar trend continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched [5]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: After event settlement, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [6]. - Stock index options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and it is expected to move sideways [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The market continues to digest Politburo meeting information. It is expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: With the US fundamentals weakening and the restart of the rate - cut cycle logic, precious metals are expected to rise in a volatile manner, influenced by Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move sideways, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With strong anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, the futures market is firm. It is expected to move sideways, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [6]. - Iron ore: With a slight decrease in small - sample hot - metal production, the price moves sideways, affected by factors such as overseas mine production, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policies [6]. - Other products (coke, etc.): All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as production, cost, and macro - sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Affected by disappointing US non - farm payrolls data, the price is under pressure and expected to decline in a volatile manner, influenced by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [6]. - Other metals: Most are expected to move sideways, affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - risks [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: With geopolitical expectations fluctuating, it is expected to move sideways, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - Other chemical products: All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as weather, supply, demand, and policies [9]. - Logs: Are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental verification stage. China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, but the export is still under pressure due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff 2.0", and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations needs to be continuously monitored. The US has imposed a series of new tariffs, and Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, which will have a certain impact on the market. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there are internal differences due to the increasing inflation risk. Putin said that he may meet with Trump in the UAE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 deployed the economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for continuous and timely strengthening of macro policies and more moderate "anti-involution" policies. China's official manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non-manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, mainly supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect under tariff uncertainty. Imports increased by 4.1%, with significant growth in the imports of integrated circuits, copper ore concentrates, and high-tech products [1] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and the EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. The US economic data in July was not as expected, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy continued to drag down business activities. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [2] Commodity Segments - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies should be closely monitored. The supply constraints in the non-ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the impact of tariff implementation on demand expectations needs to be followed. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ accelerated production increase, agreeing to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, urea and other products is also worthy of attention. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Key News - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $3.2922 trillion compared with the end of June, a decrease of 0.76%. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces in July, the ninth consecutive month of increase. China's exports in July increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB and 7.2% in US dollars, while imports increased by 4.8% in RMB and 4.1% in US dollars. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and will sign an executive order to allow 401K accounts to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity funds. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Putin said he may meet with Trump in the UAE [5]

Core Insights - The report titled "Prospects for Low-Carbon Technologies in Industry under China's Carbon Neutrality Goals" was initiated by Tsinghua University's Carbon Neutrality Research Institute and supported by the Energy Foundation, focusing on China's industrial carbon neutrality strategy [1] Group 1: Industrial Carbon Neutrality Strategy - The report emphasizes that the industrial sector is a major source of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China, presenting significant opportunities for technological innovation and industrial upgrades [1] - By 2060, CO2 emissions from the industrial sector are expected to drop to 450 million tons, a reduction of approximately 95% compared to 2025, driven by three main factors: demand-side adjustments, technological innovations, and clean electricity substitution [1] - Four core technologies—hydrogen substitution, electrification coupled with clean electricity, raw material substitution, and waste recycling—are projected to contribute nearly 80% of the industrial decarbonization potential [1] Group 2: Development Pathways for Low-Carbon Technologies - The report outlines a "three-stage" pathway for the development of carbon neutrality technologies in the industrial sector: 1. Large-scale application of low-carbon process technologies (2025-2035), focusing on demand-side structural adjustments and short-process technologies, which are expected to contribute about 55% of the industrial carbon neutrality technology reduction [2] 2. Explosive application of disruptive technologies (2036-2050), where hydrogen technology, electrification, and CCUS will be scaled up to break the reliance on high-carbon pathways [2] 3. Deep application of carbon removal technologies (2051-2060), where the industrial sector will rely on CCUS to address hard-to-abate segments while other sectors achieve net-zero emissions [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies in the industrial sector, the report suggests several policy recommendations, including the planning and deployment of strategic major projects with demonstrative effects, enhancing the role of carbon markets and carbon finance, and establishing a supportive fiscal and tax policy framework for carbon neutrality technology development [3]

Core Insights - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous month, driven by supply chain cost advantages and global competitiveness [1][13][15] - The import growth rate also expanded to 4.1%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [13] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high or improving economic conditions, including non-ferrous metals, coal, automotive, photovoltaic, pharmaceutical biotechnology, semiconductors, and electricity [1] Export Performance - Exports to emerging regions such as Africa, ASEAN, Vietnam, and India continued to show high growth, while exports to the EU and Canada also increased [2][15] - Specific sectors like furniture, plastics, general equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles showed stable growth, while exports of data processing equipment, mobile phones, textiles, and bags generally declined [2][17] - The report highlights a diversification in export destinations, with a decreasing reliance on the US market [2][15] Industry Trends - The semiconductor sector saw a narrowing year-on-year growth in global sales in June, while July recorded an increase in integrated circuit export values [4][20] - The heavy truck sales in July showed a significant year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in the automotive sector [1][19] - The photovoltaic industry experienced price increases across its supply chain, contributing to improved economic conditions in the midstream manufacturing sector [4][19] Consumer Demand - The report noted a rise in box office revenues and a slight decline in retail sales growth for home appliances, indicating mixed signals in consumer spending [4][19] - Prices for agricultural products showed varied trends, with some stability in fresh milk and sugar prices, while pork prices remained unchanged [4][19] Resource Sector - Industrial metal prices generally increased, with copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, and lead prices rising, while coal prices also saw upward trends [4][19] - The report indicates a decline in construction steel transaction volumes, alongside mixed inventory trends for various steel products [4][19] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a decrease in land transaction premium rates and a decline in the area of commercial housing transactions, reflecting challenges in the real estate market [4][19] - A downward trend in A-share turnover rates and daily trading volumes was also noted [4][19] Public Utilities - The average daily power generation of key power plants showed a year-on-year increase over the past 12 weeks, indicating a stable performance in the energy sector [4][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has risen recently due to long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies and infrastructure investment, and short - term capital inflows and improved enterprise deposit and loan data. The bond market is expected to show a repair trend. Precious metals are supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty". Most commodities are expected to show a wide - range or weak - range oscillation trend [2][3][4] - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical events, and their price trends vary. For example, steel products are affected by production, inventory, and policy expectations; copper is affected by tariffs and inventory; and energy products are affected by supply, demand, and price adjustments [6][15][23] Summary by Category Financials Stock Index - The A - share market rose yesterday with the Wind All - A up 0.72% and a turnover of 1.76 trillion yuan. The rise is attributed to long - term, mid - term, and short - term logics. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [2] - The treasury bond futures showed different trends. The short - term bond market is expected to repair, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell overnight. Gold is in a window supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. Low - buying and holding silver is a good strategy [4] Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke Rebar - The rebar futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand pressure increased, but policy expectations and rumors boosted market sentiment. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price fell. The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand weakened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rose. The supply is affected by inspections, and the demand is strong. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [9] Coke - The coke futures rose. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [10] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures strengthened. Market news boosted confidence, and the demand increased. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [11][12] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures strengthened. Cost support is strong, and the fundamentals have little contradiction. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices rose slightly. The macro situation is complex, and the demand is insufficient. The price may be weak, but the "Golden September" expectation restricts the decline [15][16] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were affected by market sentiment. The fundamentals changed little, and the short - term is expected to oscillate [17] Alumina, Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloy - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices rose. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may face downward pressure. The short - term is expected to oscillate [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices rose. Pay attention to the policy implementation and the opportunity of shorting SI and longing PS [20] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to increase. The short - term focus is on production uncertainties [21] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fell. The market is affected by sanctions and price adjustments. The price is under upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [23] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand may weaken. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [24] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term is expected to oscillate [25][26] Rubber - Rubber prices showed different trends. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [27] PX, PTA, and MEG - PX, PTA, and MEG prices rose. The cost is under pressure, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price trends vary [28][29] Methanol - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the increase is not significant [30] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply and demand and cost. The short - term upward space is limited [31] Polyvinyl Chloride - PVC prices showed different trends. The fundamentals improved slightly. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [32][33] Urea - Urea prices strengthened. The supply increased, and the demand slowed down. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices showed different trends. The supply and demand are stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [35] Glass - Glass prices were weak. The supply was stable, and the demand declined. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [36][37] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell, while domestic protein meal prices rose. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to peak. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal and participate in positive spreads [39] Oils - BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. The supply and demand data will be released, and the strategy is to go long and sell put options [40] Live Pigs - Live pig futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply pressure and policy support coexist. The short - term is expected to oscillate [41][42] Eggs - Egg futures rose, and the spot price fell. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, but there is a possibility of seasonal rebound [43] Corn - Corn futures rebounded, and the spot price was weak. The short - term is expected to face resistance, and the medium - term is expected to be weak [44] Soft Commodities Sugar - The domestic sugar sales data is good, but the spot price is down. The external market is weak. The domestic market is expected to be weak [46] Cotton - ICE cotton fell, while domestic cotton rose slightly. The international market focuses on macro factors, and the domestic market is supported by inventory. The 01 contract is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term [47]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.52% [1] - The semiconductor industry chain experienced a significant surge, with IGBT and advanced packaging sectors showing notable increases [1] - Healthcare and energy stocks performed actively during this period [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug concept saw a rapid pullback, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Non-ferrous metals and photovoltaic sectors displayed signs of weakness, reflecting a trend against "involution" concepts [1]

1. Macroeconomy - **Core View**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in previous years, indicating downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be implemented. Overseas, the next few months will be a crucial observation period for inflation trends. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has been fluctuating, and changes in US inflation data deserve close attention [2] - **Market Information**: Modi is scheduled to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit; Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US; Trump has ordered an additional 25% tariff on India; the US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to increase tariffs by 15%; there are signs of a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky; Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut; the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction was unexpectedly weak [1][3][5][28] 2. RMB Exchange Rate - **Core Logic**: Based on the "dollar - mid - price - spot price" analysis framework, the market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, and the dollar index is likely to consolidate. With the central bank's guidance and the trade surplus from January to June, the short - term exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a central anchor of 7.20 [4] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are reasonable; Trump will announce the appointment of a new Fed governor in 2 - 3 days; trade negotiations between Switzerland and the US have not made progress; Trump plans to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and additional tariffs on India and other countries [3] 3. Stock Index - **Core View**: The stock market continued to rise yesterday, mainly driven by foreign capital inflows and active participation of hot money. The CSI 1000 index showed relative strength, while the Shanghai 50 index was weak. Short - term external tariff adjustments have increased risk - aversion sentiment, while foreign capital inflows have brought vitality. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to face upward pressure [5] - **Market Information**: The margin balance has returned to the two - trillion - yuan mark; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to levy high tariffs on chips [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell cash - secured put options [5] 4. Treasury Bonds - **Core Logic**: Although the bond market's gains narrowed in the afternoon, there are signs of sentiment improvement, such as relative desensitization to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets and continuous net purchases by funds [7] - **Market Information**: South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists; the US plans to sell weapons to Ukraine [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Appropriate layout of long positions [7] 5. Container Shipping - **Core View**: Some mainstream shipping companies have continuously lowered the spot cabin quotes for European routes, which led to the lower opening of futures prices. Maersk's adjustment of shipping routes may increase port congestion and affect the effective capacity of European routes, which is beneficial for the long - term futures prices. However, the decline in spot quotes of some shipping companies has limited the upside of futures prices. In the future, the EC is expected to be in a volatile or slightly downward trend [9] - **Market Information**: The US has imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa, causing Maersk to terminate direct shipping between the US and South Africa; Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs [8][9] 6. Commodities 6.1 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Core View**: Due to weak US economic data and government pressure on the Fed, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. In the medium - to - long - term, the trend is bullish, and in the short - term, the market is mainly controlled by bulls [10] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [10] 6.2 Copper - **Core View**: Copper prices have shown a slight correction. The difference between LME copper and COMEX copper prices has stabilized. Short - term oversold conditions in COMEX copper may boost the valuation of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak demand [11][12] - **Market Information**: US ISM non - manufacturing data is poor [12] 6.3 Zinc - **Core View**: The continuous decline in overseas zinc inventories provides support for zinc prices. Although the domestic fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, the bottom of zinc prices is expected to be supported. In the short - term, zinc prices are likely to be volatile with a relatively strong trend [12][13] 6.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: The trend of nickel is volatile, and the overall logic has not changed significantly. The price of nickel ore has stabilized with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are differentiated. The supply of stainless steel is strong, and the demand is weak, but the spot price is relatively firm. The supply of nickel sulfate is tight [14][15] 6.5 Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices have shown some resilience. Supply - side issues have not been resolved quickly, and if the situation in Myanmar drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [17] 6.6 Carbonate Lithium - **Core View**: The futures price of carbonate lithium has fluctuated higher. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain has weakened slightly. Supply - side disturbances still exist, and the issue of mining certificates continues to ferment. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly upward state in the near term [18][19] 6.7 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core View**: Cost - side factors drive up prices, and sentiment continues to stimulate the market. In the short - term, the trend is bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside of industrial silicon is limited, and opportunities for buying on dips should be noted. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to industrial integration [20][22][23] 6.8 Lead - **Core View**: After two days of bottom - range oscillation, lead prices rose according to the peak - season expectation. The supply of primary lead is relatively strong, and the cost of recycled lead can support prices. The demand side is approaching the peak season, and the willingness to stock up for production has increased. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [24] 6.9 Black Metals 6.9.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: The inspection and reduction of coal mine over - production are ongoing, and there are also news of steel production reduction. Although it is the off - season, the demand shows the characteristic of being not weak in the off - season. The near - term contracts face delivery pressure, and the upper space is limited, but the lower space is supported [25][26] - **Market Information**: The government plans to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027; some coal mines have production reduction expectations [25] 6.9.2 Iron Ore - **Core View**: The rise of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The profit of steel mills has weakened significantly, and the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal is more prominent. The price of iron ore is expected to face upward pressure [27] - **Market Information**: Some coal mines have production reduction expectations, and the output and inventory of steel products have changed [27] 6.9.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Core View**: The expectation of coking coal production reduction supports the strengthening of the market. The 5 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the coking profit has been repaired. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to macro events [28][29] - **Market Information**: Trump has imposed tariffs on related countries; the government plans to renovate rural roads; the production and inventory data of coking coal and coke have changed [28] 6.9.4 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core View**: The cost support for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has strengthened. The profits of steel mills are good, which provides support for the demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. However, in the long - term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the supply side is insufficient. In the short - term, the market still has some expectations for supply - side contraction [30][31][32] 6.10 Energy and Chemicals 6.10.1 Crude Oil - **Core View**: The overnight crude - oil market冲高回落 and closed down. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include the decline in US crude - oil and refined - product inventories, Saudi Arabia's significant increase in official prices, and Trump's tariff measures. Bearish factors include the possible cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus increases, and the upward space is limited [33][35] - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of light oil in September; US EIA weekly data shows changes in inventory, production, and trade; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods [33][34] 6.10.2 LPG - **Core View**: The LPG market is in a low - level volatile state. The supply side is still relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The overall situation remains loose [36][37][38] 6.10.3 PTA - PX - **Core View**: The prices of PX - PTA have declined under the influence of commodity sentiment. The supply of PX is expected to increase in August, and the profit margin has been compressed. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The demand for polyester has declined, but there is a peak - season expectation. Currently, the PTA processing fee is at a historical low, and there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying on dips [39][40][41] 6.10.4 MEG - Bottle Grade - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the price of ethylene glycol has weakened. The supply side has increased, and the profit has been compressed. The inventory of the East China port has decreased slightly. In general, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [42] 6.10.5 Methanol - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to the fundamentals, which are currently weak. Factors such as the shutdown of Xingxing, the high - volume shipment from Iran in July, and poor downstream profits should be noted. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44] 6.10.6 PP - **Core View**: The PP market is in a short - term volatile state. The supply side is under pressure from new device production and the recovery of PDH profit. The demand side is still weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand cannot be fundamentally resolved in the short - term. It is affected by macro sentiment and coking - coal prices [45][46] 6.10.7 PE - **Core View**: The PE market is currently affected by external factors and lacks a directional driver. The supply side has increased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The inventory of LLDPE is at a high level. However, downstream orders are expected to recover in August, and the demand is expected to pick up [47][48] 6.10.8 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Core View**: Pure benzene: The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to be in a volatile state, and it is advisable to reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene by selling at high prices. Styrene: The supply is expected to increase in August and September, and the market is expected to be weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49][50] 6.10.9 Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The fuel - oil market is still weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has shown some recovery. The inventory is at a high level, and the short - term driving force is downward [52] 6.10.10 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil market has been dragged down by crude - oil prices. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It is advisable to have a bearish allocation [53] 6.10.11 Asphalt - **Core View**: The asphalt market is weakly volatile following the cost side. The supply has increased, and the demand has been suppressed by weather and capital shortages. In the short - term, the fundamentals have weakened, but in the long - term, the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [53][54] 6.10.12 Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand pattern is that supply is stronger than demand. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [55] - **Glass**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamentals. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in a weak - balance state. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [56] - **Caustic Soda**: As it approaches August, the 09 contract may start the delivery logic. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is stable. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the peak - season performance [57] 6.10.13 Pulp - **Core View**: The pulp market has support on dips. The supply and inventory are at high levels, and the demand is difficult to see a significant long - term increase. However, the demand may be seasonally boosted in August. The market has adjusted with the decline in sentiment and is expected to be supported at the current level [58][59] 6.10.14 Logs - **Core View**: The "autumn fat contract" has opened. The price of the 09 contract revolves around the warehouse - receipt cost. Non - industrial customers are advised to trade in a range, and industrial customers can hedge to lock in profits [61] 6.10.15 Propylene - **Core View**: The propylene market is in a weakly volatile state. The cost side is affected by external factors, the supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The Shandong market has strengthened due to the reduction in the supply - demand gap [63][64] 6.11 Agricultural Products 6.11.1 Hogs - **Core View**: The price of hogs is weakly stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The market has the sentiment of withholding hogs from sale. It is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [66] 6.11.2 Oilseeds - **Core View**: The outer - market US soybeans have fallen due to concerns about new - crop exports and favorable planting weather. The inner - market has given back the sentiment - driven increase. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to face a gap after December. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean meal is limited, and the market is gradually pricing in the supply gap of the far - month contracts. For rapeseed meal, the near - month contracts are relatively strong, and the far - month contracts are expected to de - stock faster. It is advisable to go long on the far - month contracts on dips [67][68] 6.11.3 Oils - **Core View**: The vegetable - oil market is in a slightly upward volatile state recently, with soybean oil being relatively stronger within the sector. The supply pressure of palm oil has increased, the soybean - producing areas lack weather - driven factors, and the driving force for rapeseed oil is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and trade relations [69] 6.11.4 Corn and Starch - **Core View**: The corn market is in a weakly volatile state, and the trading is dull. The price of corn has declined slightly in the Northeast, and the demand is still weak. The price of corn starch is generally stable, and the demand from the syrup industry provides some support [70]