1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - **Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - **Production**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Imports and Exports**: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales Volume**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - **Trading Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices trended weakly due to the war, a stronger US dollar, and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The price of nickel ore continued to rise, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai nickel 2605 will oscillate weakly [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2605 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 20, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,160, up 1,610 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 16,885, down 180; the price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,065, up 210. The nickel index was 133,700, up 400, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,599, up 92 [10]. - **Spot prices**: On March 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,900, up 3,000; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,200, up 2,900; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,500, up 3,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,100, up 3,100. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Hangzhou increased by 100 [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 283,512, a decrease of 258; nickel warehouse receipts were 56,690, a decrease of 209; the total inventory was 340,202, a decrease of 467 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons month - on - month. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 40,838, unchanged [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 20, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The high - nickel price per nickel point was 1,087.08 yuan, a decrease of 2.53, and the low - nickel price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,151, the scrap steel production cost was 13,968, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,803 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 131,768 yuan per ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai copper price broke through support and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 5.55% to close at 94,740 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and global instability supported copper prices, while the Middle East situation and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts and the easing logic. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is normal, mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory increased significantly last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 22,337 tons to 411,121 tons [3]. - The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 5.55% last week, closing at 94,740 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and global instability support copper prices. The Middle East situation and high oil prices may affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. Industrial spot trading is mainly for rigid - demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 22,337 tons to 411,121 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **PMI**: No specific content provided [9] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The 2024 China annual supply - demand balance shows a production of 12.06 million tons, an import of 3.73 million tons, an export of 0.46 million tons, an apparent consumption of 15.34 million tons, an actual consumption of 15.23 million tons, and a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is being destocked, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][20]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [25]. - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: No specific content provided [28] - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [31] - **Warehouse Receipts**: No specific content provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation continues to suppress market sentiment. Inflation and economic weakness risks are weighing on the market. However, for copper, the supply of raw materials is tight, and future inventory digestion may support copper prices. For aluminum, overseas supply remains tight, and domestic inventory reduction may support prices. For lead, the price has multi - factor contradictions and may further decline. For zinc, it is in a downward trend. For tin, it is expected to run weakly. For nickel, it may follow the downward trend in the short - term but has bottom support in the medium - term. For lithium carbonate, the price has some support. For alumina, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, it will maintain high - level volatility. For cast aluminum alloy, the price has some support [2][4][7][9][11][13][16][19][22][25] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M contract closed down 3.09% to $11,834/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 93,210 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,925 to 342,350 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 22,000 to 411,000 tons. The spot in East China had a slightly wider discount, and the import was profitable. The refined - scrap copper price difference was inverted [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation has not cooled down, and inflation and economic weakness continue to suppress the market. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment is not very positive but improving. Future inventory digestion will support copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to find the bottom. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 92,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - $12,000/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum 3M contract closed down 1.54% to $3,192/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 10,000 to 586,000 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 to 404,000 tons. Aluminum ingot and bar inventories decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum bars increased. The spot discount in East China narrowed. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 to 430,000 tons [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has affected the market sentiment. The supply concern has eased, but overseas supply remains tight, and domestic inventory reduction may support prices. If the war does not cool down, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - $3,250/ton [4] Lead - **Market Information**: On Friday, SHFE lead index closed down 0.74% to 16,293 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $11 to $1,881/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,275 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton. SHFE lead inventory was 58,200 tons, and LME lead inventory was 284,300 tons. The social inventory decreased by 7,500 tons to 72,600 tons [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC has increased. The production of primary and secondary smelters has improved, and the factory and social inventories have decreased. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term range, and the downstream may buy for hedging. However, the high SHFE - LME ratio has led to less exports and more imports. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the lead price may further decline [7] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Friday, SHFE zinc index closed up 1.02% to 22,938 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $3.5 to $3,086.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,910 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory was 102,500 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 117,900 tons. The social inventory decreased by 7,200 tons to 229,000 tons. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the price decline [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, and the import TC has continued to decline. The zinc price decline has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. The downstream has replenished inventory, but the overall inventory is still high. The high oil price and the Fed's policy expectations have put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9] Tin - **Market Information**: On March 20, SHFE tin main contract closed at 342,480 yuan/ton, down 0.94%. SHFE inventory decreased by 789 to 9,486 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 35 to 8,920 tons. The smelter operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered, but the demand improvement is limited. The social inventory decreased by 2,770 tons to 11,035 tons [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin supply is still constrained by raw material shortages, and the short - term supply increase is limited. The demand has a weak improvement, and the downstream's low - price replenishment provides short - term support. Considering geopolitical factors and the decline of the US interest - rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to run weakly. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 330,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $41,000 - $50,000/ton [11] Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 20, SHFE nickel main contract closed at 133,160 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. The spot premiums of different brands were stable or decreased. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased slightly [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed's hawkish stance have put pressure on risk assets, and the nickel price may follow the downward trend. In the medium - term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support. It is not recommended to short. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $20,000/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 144,916 yuan, up 0.29%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 141,500 - 149,200 yuan, and the industrial - grade was 138,500 - 146,000 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 143,860 yuan, up 0.88% [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran situation has led to concerns about energy shocks and the suppression of metal prices. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the production has increased. The inventory reduction has slowed down, but the consumption is still high. The lithium price has some support from downstream buying. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 132,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [16] Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 20, the alumina index closed down 0.77% to 3,061 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price increased by 10 to 2,715 yuan/ton, with a discount of 326 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas FOB price was stable at $302/ton, and the import profit was 115 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 8,700 to 399,100 tons. The CIF price of bauxite in Guinea increased by $1 to $65/ton [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the ore price is expected to rise. The short - term supply of alumina has tightened due to maintenance, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the US - Iran conflict [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,065 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased by 10,342 to 40,898 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.24% to 1,072,600 tons [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance have put pressure on the market. The stainless - steel market supply is loose, the inventory reduction is slow, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is in a game between weak macro and demand and strong cost support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,410 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's RKAB application review [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2604 closed down 0.83% to 22,810 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions and trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,600 to 47,700 tons. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the import price decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The upstream inventory decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has decreased, but the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production. The supply - side disturbances and raw material shortages provide some support for the price [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It has led to increased inflation concerns, changes in central bank policies, and fluctuations in various asset prices. For example, it has affected the prices of precious metals, base metals, energy commodities, and agricultural products. [4][8][10] - The global economic outlook is uncertain, with concerns about stagflation and recession. Central banks' monetary policies, especially the Fed's stance on interest rates, are crucial factors influencing market trends. [4][39][45] - Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some industries are facing supply - side constraints, while others are affected by demand - side factors. For instance, in the metal industry, copper and aluminum are affected by supply shortages and geopolitical factors, while in the agricultural industry, factors such as production forecasts and trade policies play important roles. [13][15][83] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Iran proposed 4 measures in response to Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants, and the Trump administration started preliminary consultations on "peace talks" with Iran. The central bank governor said that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and a large light rare - earth mine was discovered in Sichuan. [2] - **Strategy**: The conflict between the US and Iran has affected global risk appetite. The hawkish stances of Powell and European central bank officials have led to a decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rapid rise in US bond yields. In China, exports are resilient, and PPI has been narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks. [4] - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided, showing different trends. [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of decline. The Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote travel service exports, and the LPR remained stable for the tenth consecutive month. The central bank conducted 205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. [5] - **Strategy**: The economic data from January to February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has raised concerns about imported inflation, and inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. [8] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets declined. The Fed and other major central banks maintained their current interest rates, and the US Treasury Secretary made statements about war funds. Iran proposed counter - measures against Trump's threats. [9] - **Strategy**: The escalation of the US - Iran war has raised inflation concerns, causing central banks to be cautious about interest - rate cuts. The strengthening of real interest rates and the US dollar, along with a decline in near - term interest - rate cut expectations, have put pressure on precious metals. Gold is in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish. [10] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the Middle - East situation, the copper price continued to decline. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased. The spot market showed different supply - demand situations in different regions. [12] - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation has not cooled down, and inflation and economic weakness continue to suppress market sentiment. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and future inventory digestion may support the copper price. The short - term copper price may continue to find the bottom. [13] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price continued to be weak. The inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum bars increased. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M maintained a premium. [14] - **Strategy**: The escalation of the Middle - East situation has affected market risk sentiment, and the supply concern has been alleviated. Overseas supply is expected to be tight, and domestic inventory may decrease. If the war situation does not cool down, the aluminum price is expected to be weakly volatile. [15] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, while the LME zinc price fell. The domestic and international inventories and basis are provided. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the zinc price decline. [16][17] - **Strategy**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and the import TC has declined. The zinc industry is in a weak situation, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [18] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell, and the LME lead price also declined. The domestic and international inventories, basis, and other data are provided. The social inventory of lead decreased after the price decline. [19] - **Strategy**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the import TC has increased. The lead price is at the lower end of the long - term shock range. The downstream may conduct strategic purchases, but the high沪伦 ratio and inflation concerns may also put pressure on the lead price. The price volatility is increasing. [19] Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price fell. The spot price and cost of nickel also changed. The price of nickel iron decreased slightly. [20] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the hawkish stance of the Fed. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support. It is recommended to use high - sell and low - buy strategies. [21] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The inventory of SHFE and LME decreased. The supply side is gradually recovering, but the demand side has not fully recovered. The downstream actively replenished inventory after the price decline. [22] - **Strategy**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of geopolitical factors. [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the inventory reduction margin has shrunk. [24] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation has affected the metal market. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the price has certain support. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums. [25] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory increased, and the price of bauxite in Guinea increased. [26] - **Strategy**: Guinea may tighten bauxite exports, and the supply of alumina is expected to be tight in the short term but in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see strategy. [27] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose. The spot price in different markets increased, and the inventory decreased. The raw material prices were relatively stable. [28] - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation has increased inflation concerns, and the Fed's hawkish stance has led to a decline in commodity prices. The stainless steel market has a loose supply, slow inventory reduction, and weak demand. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. [28] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract fell. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of ADC12 in the domestic market decreased. [30] - **Strategy**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price has certain support. [31] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions also changed. [33] - **Strategy**: The real - estate data from January to February was weak, and the demand for steel from the real - estate sector is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and raw material price fluctuations. [33] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price and basis are provided. The overseas ore shipment increased, and the domestic iron - water production increased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory increased. [34][35] - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of iron ore is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level shock due to resource structure issues and geopolitical conflicts. [35] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke increased. The spot prices and basis are provided. The price of coking coal suddenly rose on Friday night, which was considered a result of the "energy substitution" sentiment. [36] - **Strategy**: The market has shifted from inflation and supply - side concerns to stagflation and recession trading. The black - metal sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and it is recommended to take short - term long - position operations or wait - and - see. In the long term, the coking coal price is expected to be positive. [39] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the soda ash main contract price increased slightly. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. The open interest of glass and soda ash also changed. [40][41] - **Strategy**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand situation and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range shock. [40][42] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price rose significantly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price also rose. The spot prices and basis are provided. The price of manganese silicon was affected by the potential impact of a typhoon on manganese ore. [43] - **Strategy**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively good. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall market sentiment, manganese ore supply, and "dual - carbon" policies. [45][46] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price rose, and the polysilicon main contract price fell. The spot prices and basis are provided. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing slightly, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon market has high inventory and weak demand. [47][48] - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be in a shock due to cost support. The polysilicon price is expected to find the bottom in a shock due to weak fundamentals. [48][49] Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The Middle - East situation has affected the rubber market. The prices of natural rubber and butadiene rubber have different trends. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber are provided. [52][53] - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. It is also recommended to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [55] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined - oil products also changed. [56] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to start a short - position strategic allocation for crude oil. It is also recommended to widen the price difference between different oil types in the Red Sea area, short the high - sulfur fuel - oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread. [58] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main methanol futures contract price changed, and the MTO profit also changed. [59] - **Strategy**: It is considered that methanol has fully included the current geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profit at high prices. [60] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed. The overall basis is provided. [61] - **Strategy**: The expectation of high - level production in the first quarter is strong. The domestic supply - demand situation is balanced, and the marginal impact is mainly related to export quotas. It is recommended to short - sell urea. [62] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the basis and other indicators are provided. The upstream and downstream operating rates and inventory are also provided. [63] - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the cost of pure benzene is relatively wide. The supply and demand of styrene are in a certain state. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position due to geopolitical impacts. [64] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price rose. The spot price, basis, and cost data are provided. The operating rate and inventory of PVC are also provided. [65] - **Strategy**: The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises has rebounded, but there are expectations of production reduction and seasonal maintenance. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export may be affected. The short - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks. [66] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price rose. The supply and demand data, inventory, and cost data are provided. [67] - **Strategy**: The overseas and domestic device maintenance is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The short - term price has risen too much, and attention should be paid to risks. [68][69] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The operating rate, inventory, and processing fee data are provided. [70] - **Strategy**: The PTA is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term over - increase. [71] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract price fell. The operating rate, inventory, and cost data are provided. [72] - **Strategy**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is increasing. The PX is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term over - increase. [73] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price fell. The spot price, basis, upstream operating rate, and inventory data are provided. [74] - **Strategy**: The PE spot price has fallen, and the valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases. [75] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price fell. The spot price, basis, upstream operating rate, and inventory data are provided. [76] - **Strategy**: The cost - side supply is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production - mismatch issue. [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall over the weekend. The supply is concentrated, and the demand recovery is slow. [79] - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated release period, and the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the medium - term price increase basis is poor. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The domestic egg price had different trends over the weekend. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. [81] - **Strategy**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the current supply level is still high. The short - term spot price may be strong, but the near - month contract has limited upside space. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for the far - month contract. [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US have increased. The US soybean export data and domestic soybean arrival and inventory data are provided. The global soybean production and inventory - consumption ratio are also provided. [83] - **Strategy**: The March USDA report is neutral. The protein - meal price is affected by the volatile crude - oil price due to the geopolitical crisis. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia may restrict the export of palm oil. The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic inventory of three major oils is also

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, approaching domestic supply ceiling, weak downstream demand, and volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2] - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, with a basis of 60 and a spot price of 24080, which is considered neutral [2] - The inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased by 35619 tons to 452044 tons compared to last week, regarded as neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, also considered neutral [2] - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2] - In the long - term, carbon - neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and be beneficial to aluminum prices, but macro - sentiment is changeable and the Middle East events have led to a collective decline in non - ferrous metals [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Carbon - neutrality controls capacity expansion, domestic supply is near the ceiling, downstream demand is not strong, real estate is weak, and short - term macro - sentiment is changeable [2] - **Basis**: Spot price is 24080, basis is 60, and the spot is at a premium to the futures, neutral [2] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 35619 tons to 452044 tons last week, neutral [2] - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, neutral [2] - **Main Positions**: The main net positions are long and long positions are increasing, bullish [2] - **Expectation**: Carbon - neutrality drives the transformation of the aluminum industry, long - term positive for aluminum prices, but macro - sentiment is changeable, and Middle East events affect non - ferrous metals [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Carbon - neutrality controls capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply, and there is an expected interest rate cut [3] - **利空Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3] - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3] Daily Summary - **Spot Price**: Shanghai yesterday's spot middle price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu was 70690, down 450; Yangtze River today's Shanghai price was 70870, down 400 [4] - **Inventory**: LME daily inventory was 74750, down 425; SHFE daily inventory was 136300, up 29728; SHFE weekly inventory data is incomplete [4] Supply - Demand Balance | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.61 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.31 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The February manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price reached a new high and is currently oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to Middle - East events [2] - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, with natural disasters as a risk [3] - There are multiple factors affecting copper prices, including geopolitical disturbances such as the Russia - Ukraine and Iran - US - Israel situations, potential Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mining area on the positive side; and the repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the global economic situation suppressing downstream consumption on the negative side [4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are bullish as supply has disturbances, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the scrap - copper policy is relaxed [2] - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: On March 20, copper inventory increased by 6,925 to 342,350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 22,337 tons to 411,121 tons compared to last week, which is bearish [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average moving downward, which is bearish [2] - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Geopolitical disturbances, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mining area [4] - Bearish factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the global economic situation suppressing downstream consumption [4] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state [19] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [21]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-23） 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：需求端钢厂高炉复产预期较强，铁水日均产量228.18万吨，环比增加6.95万吨，铁水产量稳 步回升，部分钢厂采购节奏加快，整体对原料煤供需格局进一步好转，焦炭涨价预期增强，预计短期焦 煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：产地煤矿生产工作有序进行，焦煤产量稳步增长。炼焦煤市场持续向好，下游采购需求提 升，积极拉运为主，煤矿整体签单显著好转，厂内库存快速去化，且部分矿点预售订单较多，近两日产 地多煤种报价陆续上调，进一步提振市场信心，当前多无库存压力，原料价格坚挺；中性 ...

Industry and Company Analysis - The lithium battery industry is experiencing accelerated industrialization, with companies like Samsung SDI and Chasing releasing AI-specific all-solid-state batteries, and plans for mass production by 2027 [3][33] - CATL maintains high-speed growth in performance, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [3][33] - The European natural gas futures prices are rising, which may impact energy costs for battery production and overall industry dynamics [3][33] Financial Performance Insights - BOSS Zhipin reported a revenue growth rate exceeding expectations for Q4 2025, indicating a positive trend in spring recruitment [3][33] -卓越教育集团 emphasizes high dividends and shareholder returns, suggesting a competitive advantage in the Greater Bay Area [3][33] - Huazhu Group's operational turning point is validated, with expansion in market share and cyclical recovery [3][33] - Tencent is actively investing in AI, focusing on enhancing model capabilities, which may drive future growth [3][33] - Zhongan Online's diversified layout has deepened, leading to significant profit improvements [3][33] - Dongfang Caifu's performance is on an upward trend, seeking new growth spaces [3][33] - Nanjing Steel's main business profitability remains stable, although its coking business has negatively impacted overall performance [3][33] - Guokang Gold Group is progressing with the expansion of its mining capacity, indicating strong future growth potential [3][33] - Juzhi Biotechnology's short-term adjustments do not alter its long-term growth logic, with a promising pipeline in the medical beauty sector [3][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show strong trends today. The main factors include the geopolitical situation in the Middle East affecting oil prices, the strength of the external crude oil market, neutral inventory levels, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted, and many countries releasing strategic reserves, leading to a strong external crude oil market. In terms of supply and demand, the demand for agricultural films is good, but high - priced raw materials make enterprises hesitant to stock up. Packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs, and the pipe industry has low operating rates and orders. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 8300 (-200), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -518, with a premium/discount ratio of -5.9%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 tons (-0.2), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen, and the price is expected to be strong today [4] - **Leveraging factors**: Cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations [6] - **Negative factors**: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Middle East situation remains tense, and the external crude oil market is strong. Many PDH plants are shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production profits and low willingness to start production. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current PP delivery product spot price is 8750 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -269, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.0%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 tons (-6.1), which is neutral [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main positions**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen, and the price is expected to be strong today [7] - **Leveraging factors**: Cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations [8] - **Negative factors**: Geopolitical factors [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 8300 (-200), the 05 contract price is 8818 (-98), the basis is -518 (-102), the warehouse receipt is 6401 (-680), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 62.3 tons, and the social inventory is 61.9 tons [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 8750 (-100), the 05 contract price is 9019 (-139), the basis is -269 (39), the warehouse receipt is 16051 (341), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 59.6 tons, and the social inventory is 30.7 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The apparent consumption has also been increasing, with a consumption growth rate of 1.4% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption has been increasing, with a consumption growth rate of 8.4% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]