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有色金属大宗金属周报:国内库存回落叠加9月降息预期提升,铜价有望上行-20250831
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-31 09:38
Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The weekly price changes for copper are +1.54% (London), +0.91% (Shanghai), and +2.78% (New York). The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6][28]. - For aluminum, the report suggests that prices will remain volatile due to rising inventory levels. The current price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3185 CNY/ton, and the operating rate for metallurgical-grade alumina has dropped to 82.4% [6][39]. - Lithium prices are expected to rebound as demand increases during the peak season, despite a recent decline in prices. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton [6][83]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to a decrease in raw material imports and an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to a supply shortage in Q4 [6][97]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been strong, with the sector index rising by 7.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.32 percentage points [12][21]. - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims and core PCE inflation, which may impact market sentiment [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with London copper increasing by 1.54% and Shanghai copper by 0.91%. The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper inventory by 2.39% [25][28]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable, with current prices at 20,730 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight increase in aluminum production margins [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a minor increase, while zinc prices have fluctuated, with a significant drop in London zinc inventory [51][62]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have risen by 5.61% in London and 3.56% in Shanghai, while nickel prices have also shown positive movement [65][69]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased recently, but the report anticipates a recovery in prices due to increased demand in the upcoming peak season [83]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo and a decrease in imports [97].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250829
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 11:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Market Data**: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - **Alumina**: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - **Price Movement**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - **Nickel Iron**: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - **Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate**: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - **Price Outlook**: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Outlook**: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - **Market Data**: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].
收评:A股三大指数集体上涨 白酒、小金属等板块走强
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-29 08:19
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93 points, with an increase of 0.37% and a trading volume of 12,216.92 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,696.15 points, rising by 0.99% with a trading volume of 15,766.05 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index ended at 2890.13 points, up by 2.23% and a trading volume of 7,637.79 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performing sectors included liquor, insurance, tourism services, small metals, gold, daily chemicals, copper, telecommunications, biopharmaceuticals, and food [1] - Weak performing sectors included semiconductors, IT equipment, dyes and coatings, software services, automotive services, oil trading, and home appliances [1] Concept Stocks - Concept stocks such as sodium batteries, solid-state batteries, and lithium mines experienced significant gains [1]
收评:沪指缩量涨0.37%,白酒、小金属等板块走强
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-29 07:39
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.37%, closing at 3857.93 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.99% to 12696.15 points. The ChiNext Index saw a significant gain of 2.23%, closing at 2890.13 points. In contrast, the STAR Market 50 Index declined by 1.71%, ending at 1341.31 points. The total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,306 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - Strong sectors included liquor, insurance, tourism services, small metals, gold, daily chemicals, copper, telecommunications, biopharmaceuticals, and food. Conversely, sectors such as semiconductors, IT equipment, dyes and coatings, software services, automotive services, oil trading, and home appliances showed weakness. Notably, concept stocks related to sodium batteries, solid-state batteries, and lithium mining experienced significant gains [1]. Earnings Outlook - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the overall profit growth forecast for A-share listed companies is expected to turn positive by 2025, ending a four-year decline. The technology innovation sector is anticipated to exhibit the most significant profit elasticity [1]. Global Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential interest rate cut, leading to expectations of increased global liquidity and a weaker dollar, which may facilitate foreign capital inflow into A-shares. The medium to long-term outlook remains supported by three key drivers: the shift of household savings, the release of policy dividends, and the recovery of the profit cycle [1]. Investment Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on monitoring policy, capital flow, and external market changes. Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as software development, semiconductors, communication equipment, and electronic components [1].
广发期货日评-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 06:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].
建信期货铜期货日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:29
Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]
百利好早盘分析:库克诉诸法律 黄金或将受益
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 01:41
Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have risen slightly, surpassing the $3400 mark, benefiting from the escalating conflict between the Federal Reserve and Trump, which may undermine the credibility of the dollar and the Fed, making gold a safe haven for investors [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump to block his dismissal attempt, which could escalate to the Supreme Court, seeking a ruling that Trump's dismissal order is illegal and invalid [2] - If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, it may damage its credibility in combating inflation, leading to increased risks for the dollar and bonds, while pushing inflation higher, thus making gold the preferred safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices have seen a slight rebound, but overall performance remains weak due to various fundamental disruptions, including decreased geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production increases, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - OPEC+ has consistently increased production in Q3, but the actual increase has been below planned targets, which may reduce supply pressure; however, global oil production continues to rise, likely increasing supply pressure in Q4 [4] - The traditional peak travel season is nearing its end, leading to a decline in demand for oil products, which may result in a significant increase in global oil inventories [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating potential for continued fluctuations; short-term trends may reverse as prices enter a previous high transaction area [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating that a mid-term adjustment has begun, with significant pressure from long-term moving averages suggesting potential for new lows [7]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:24
Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The report maintains the judgment that copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the support level is raised to 78,500 yuan [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market fluctuated, with the closing price remaining unchanged at 79,190 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread on the disk turned positive to 10. The spot price dropped 40 to 79,545 yuan, and the spot premium rose 40 to 170 yuan. The scarcity of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot import profit was 160 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 85. The demand for Yangshan copper was average, and the warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. The current tight domestic spot situation persists. The opening of the import window attracted the transfer of LME inventory to the domestic market. The LME inventory increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory accumulation in the LME in August was lower than expected. With the arrival of the domestic peak season in September, the low inventory strongly supports copper prices [10]. 2. Industry News - Zijin Mining's 2025 semi - annual report disclosed on the evening of August 26 showed that the company's mineral copper production reached 570,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%; mineral gold production was 41 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%; mineral silver was 224 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%; mineral zinc (lead) was 200,000 tons, equivalent lithium carbonate was 7,315 tons; iron concentrate was 1.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 58.0%; mine - produced molybdenum was 5,879 tons, tungsten was 2,137 tons, and cobalt was 30 tons [11]. - On August 26, foreign media reported that despite the encouragement of Trump administration officials, Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., the operating company behind the controversial Pebble copper mine in Alaska, had not submitted a revised proposal to remove the obstacles to the stalled copper - gold project. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated in an online status update on Monday that Northern Dynasty Minerals had not advanced "updated submission materials" for its proposed Pebble mine project, adding that "the agency has not received any relevant documents at present." This latest news came after the US Department of Justice decided last month to effectively uphold the veto of the project, shattering the hope of the Trump administration to remove regulatory obstacles [11]. - Industry online data showed that in July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.6115 million units, unchanged year - on - year; sales were 1.6437 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The domestic and export markets of household air - conditioners presented a distinct differentiation pattern. The domestic sales scale was 1.0583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the export scale was 0.5854 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5% [11][12]
广发期货《有色》日报-20250828
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The Fed's dovish stance boosts the probability of a September rate cut, which in turn supports copper prices. However, the upside of copper prices is still restricted by the "stagflation-like" environment and the uncertainty of the rate cut amplitude. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - Aluminum: For alumina, the market is under pressure due to the overall oversupply, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, it is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and if the subsequent demand does not improve, there is a possibility of a pull - back [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and the spot price is expected to remain relatively firm. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [6]. - Zinc: The supply - side is loose and the demand - side is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the overseas inventory reduction provides price support. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and the reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [10]. - Tin: Influenced by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts tin prices. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [13]. - Nickel: The macro sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides certain support. The short - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be an interval adjustment, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. - Stainless Steel: The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by the weak spot demand. The short - term trend is an interval oscillation, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - side contraction expectation is gradually realized, and the demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend. The market sentiment is still weak, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around 80,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The import loss is 1,431 yuan/ton, down 118.6 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The price difference between 2511 - 2512 contracts is 15 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The import loss is 1,810 yuan/ton, up 15.64 yuan from the previous day [8][9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan or 0.74% from the previous day. The import loss is 18,280.69 yuan/ton, down 3,051.62 yuan or 20.04% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [13]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 1.40% from the previous day. The import loss of futures is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan or 25.52% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume is 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference is 420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume is 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day. The price difference between 2509 - 2511 contracts is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 660,996 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [21].
经济数据好转 政策效果初现-20250828
申银万国期货研究· 2025-08-28 00:26
Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]