Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆★ [1] - Hot-rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is influenced by "anti-involution", with low-positioned industrial products remaining strong, but the actual implementation of policies is yet to be seen, and the rhythm may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with steel products, and the risk of increased volatility should be noted [3]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by the "anti-involution" to a limited extent, and their prices mainly follow the trend of steel products [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices follow the trend of thread, with limited ability to rise and are expected to face pressure [7][8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. This week, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. The demand for hot-rolled steel increased slightly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased. The molten iron production is slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. With low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. Attention should be paid to the demand absorption capacity during the off-season [2]. - In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain at a relatively high level [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume is currently high but may decline in the future. Port inventory continues to decline slightly without significant pressure to accumulate [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak during the off-season, but steel mills are still profitable and have little incentive to cut production actively. Molten iron production can remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The uncertainty of overseas trade has decreased, and the market expects the introduction of domestic policies, with optimistic sentiment [3]. Coke - Today's coke futures declined. The first round of price increases in the coking industry has been fully implemented, but the increase is smaller than expected, and profits are meager. Coke production has been declining, and overall inventory has hardly changed. Traders' purchasing willingness has increased [4]. Coking Coal - Today's coking coal futures declined. Environmental inspections in Wuhai have tightened, affecting coal transportation. The production of coking coal mines continues to increase, and the spot auction market has improved, with transaction prices rising significantly and terminal inventory increasing [6]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased, and production-side inventory has decreased significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - Today's silicon manganese futures declined. Due to continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase, and on-book inventory has started to rise. In the long term, manganese ore inventory is increasing, and in the short term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines are more willing to hold prices [7]. Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon futures declined. Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 239. A large northern steel mill's July ferrosilicon tender inquiry price is 5400 yuan/ton, and the June price was 5500 yuan/ton. The July tender quantity is 2700 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous round. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [8]. - The supply of ferrosilicon continues to decline, market transactions are average, on-book inventory continues to decrease, but production-side inventory has begun to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [8].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面继续小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 弱势整理 | | | 价格下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 0.26%，持仓减少 1.68 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安 | | | | 普方坯价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.74 | | | | 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量增加 3.19 万吨至 419.2 万吨，社库增加 8.64 万吨至 538.64 万吨， | | | | 厂库增加 14.8 万吨至 330.93 万吨，建材表需下降 13.71 万吨至 395.76 万吨。建材产量小幅回升，库存累 | | | | 积幅度加大，表需继续回落，市场供需有所趋弱。1-6 月地产、基建、制造业投资数据均有所走弱，对市 | | | | 场情绪形成一定影响。预计短期螺纹盘面或将弱势整理运行。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in domestic demand, necessitating further policy support to stimulate growth [3][14]. Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from Q1, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [4][14]. - Industrial output in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, driven by exports, while domestic demand showed significant decline [5][14]. - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May, influenced by earlier online promotions and regulatory policies [5][34]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with construction investment particularly affected [6][8]. - Manufacturing investment growth in the first half of 2025 was 7.5%, down from 8.5% in the first five months, primarily due to fundamental economic pressures rather than policy factors [7][8]. - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 8.9% in the first half of 2025, with traditional infrastructure projects lagging behind [8][9]. Real Estate Market - New housing sales in June saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in value, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate market [9][30]. - The investment in real estate development also faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in June [31][32]. Financial Data - Financial indicators showed improvement, with M1 and M2 money supply growth accelerating, reflecting a more favorable liquidity environment [10][25]. - New social financing in June reached 4.2 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in credit demand [25][26]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with a notable decline in discretionary spending categories, while essential goods maintained steady growth [34][35]. - The government is expected to implement more robust policies to stimulate consumer demand, particularly in the context of ongoing economic challenges [36][37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel exports remain at a high level, boosting domestic market sentiment. The weight of macro trading in the steel futures market is greater than that of industrial supply and demand. As prices rise, spot prices show signs of weakness in following up, and the basis narrows significantly. Short-term steel futures may enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - Under the boost of macro news, iron ore prices have continued to rise. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed much compared to the previous period. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the production of coking coal has recovered. The upstream inventory pressure has continued to decline, and some traders have increased their stockpiling. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have shown an oscillatory trend. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the fundamental driving force is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The futures price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. Steel exports remained at a high level, and the weight of macro trading in the futures market was greater than that of industrial supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term futures price will enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price of iron ore rose. The spot price of port iron ore also increased. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports decreased, and the number of ships at ports increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price of coking coal rose. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong. Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the upstream inventory pressure has decreased. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke rose. The spot price of port coke was stable. The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price of manganese silicon fluctuated widely. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been determined, and other steel tenders are in progress. The supply of manganese silicon has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory of manganese silicon remains high. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate, and the upward space is limited [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been announced. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both at a low level in recent years. The inventory of ferrosilicon has gradually increased. The cost of ferrosilicon production has remained relatively stable. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have changed to different degrees, including the spreads between 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties has also changed, including the basis of 10 and 01 contracts [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties in different regions have different changes, including the prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have also changed, including the disk profit of rebar, the long - process profit, the short - process profit, and the spreads between different varieties [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The chart shows the closing prices of the main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The chart shows the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The chart shows the spreads between different contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The chart shows the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: The chart shows the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [52]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].

钢材 黑色建材日报 2025-07-15 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3138 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.159%）。当日注册仓单 88510 吨, 环比增加 19318 吨。主力合约持仓量为 212.2341 万手，环比减少 78184 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3276 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.091%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.0291 万手，环比减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

黑色建材日报 2025-07-14 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3133 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 10 元/吨（0.320%）。当日注册仓单 69192 吨, 环比增加 14567 吨。主力合约持仓量为 220.0525 万手，环比减少 29510 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3273 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.337%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.9748 万手，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the impact of various events on different financial and commodity markets. Key events include Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, policy changes in the US and China, and supply - demand dynamics in multiple industries. These events lead to different market trends and investment outlooks in various sectors, such as financial futures, commodities like metals, energy, and agricultural products [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1st. Gold showed strong performance on Friday due to increased market risk aversion. However, the strength is less than in April because of the strong US dollar and lower uncertainty. Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term but remain in a volatile range [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures to negotiate with the US. Trump's tariff policy is expected to increase short - term market risk aversion, causing the US dollar index to rise. The US dollar is expected to continue rising in the short - term [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and the US strengthened communication, and the Chinese government promoted a long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds. The A - share market is over - valued, and the index is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New tariff threats may delay the Fed's interest rate cut and make the inflation outlook unclear. Trump's 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may lead to market risk aversion. US stock indices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to control positions carefully [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended that trading desks moderately buy Treasury bonds and sell them after the futures rebound [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On July 11th, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. High temperatures increased power plant demand, and port inventories decreased. Coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - In June, the monthly operating rate of China's construction machinery decreased. Iron ore prices rebounded, but the 100 - dollar key level is difficult to break through. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in the 29th week. After the release of the double - monthly reports, the oil market will enter the next stage of expected trading. Different oils have different investment suggestions [31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Analysts estimated that the US soybean crushing volume in June decreased by 4% from May but increased by 5.5% year - on - year. USDA raised the end - of - season soybean inventory. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the basis is expected to remain weak [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar - waiting ships increased, and its 2025 sugarcane production is expected to decline. Pakistan is seeking to purchase 30 - 500,000 tons of sugar. The international sugar price is expected to stabilize and weakly rebound in the short - term, but the upside is limited [37][38][39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Xinjiang's cotton topping work is basically completed. USDA's July report raised the end - of - season cotton inventory in the US and globally. ICE cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [42][44][45]. 3.2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is strong, and the expectation of a coke price increase is rising. The short - term rise is mainly affected by macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [47][48]. 3.2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail and wholesale of passenger cars in early July showed different trends, and the dealer inventory coefficient increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to be cautious about going long and use a hedging strategy for spot [53][54]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch widened slightly. Corn starch inventory increased, and the future is uncertain [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. If the inventory and auction data continue to be bearish, the spot price in the northern port may decline slightly, and it is recommended to short new - crop contracts in advance [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Osisko may expand a copper deposit in Quebec, and Codelco's copper production increased by 9% in the first half of the year. The global macro - expectation risk is rising, and the copper price may be under pressure in the short - term [58][60][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62][63][64]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's lithium carbonate production increased in June and is expected to rise in July. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be strong in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Wuxi Suntech found a new trustee. Polysilicon companies raised their quotes. The price is expected to be bullish in general but may correct in the short - term [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan's industrial silicon production increased during the flood season, and Xinjiang's production decreased. The industrial silicon price has strong resistance to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [70][71][72]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A central China lead smelter resumed production. The lead price is expected to rise in the long - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc inventories decreased, and the 0 - 3 spread increased. The zinc price is expected to be mainly affected by macro factors in the short - term, and it is recommended to manage positions carefully [76][78][79]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA futures price decreased on July 11th. The EU carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [80][82]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia plans to compensate for over - production from August to September. IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth forecast. The oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83][84]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories' export quotes are mostly stable, and they plan to cut production in July. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying on dips [85][87]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further [87][88]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The pulp price is expected to have limited upside due to unchanged supply - demand [89]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market is consolidating. PVC prices are expected to have limited upside due to deteriorating fundamentals [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [91]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe increased. The glass price is expected to have a large fluctuation range, and it is recommended to use an arbitrage strategy [92][93]. 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo - Zhoushan Port ranked seventh in the global shipping center. The EC2508 futures price is expected to oscillate between 1950 - 2050 in the short - term [94][95].