昨日，三大股指盘中弱势下探，尾盘加速下行。截至收盘，沪指跌0.68%报3380.82点，深证成指跌 1.62%报10186.45点，创业板指跌1.91%报2043.25点，科创50指数跌1.26%，沪深北三市合计成交11906 亿元，较此前一日减少近1600亿元。行业方面，半导体、券商、保险、汽车、电力、钢铁等板块走低， 农业、食品饮料、医药、煤炭等板块拉升，合成生物、宠物经济、粮食概念等活跃。 东莞证券表示，市场自4月初回调后当前已有所修复，市场情绪亦升至相对稳定区间。中美贸易争端缓 和、"一行一局一会"政策逐步落地等因素有助于坚定投资者长期信心、稳住资本市场预期，不断为市场 积攒做多动能。但考虑到上方或存在一定抛压，短期内市场或延续震荡态势，中长期维度仍坚定看好中 国资产重估。 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅近日发布关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见，提出到2030年，城市更新 行动实施取得重要进展，城市更新体制机制不断完善，城市开发建设方式转型初见成效，安全发展基础 更加牢固，服务效能不断提高，人居环境明显改善，经济业态更加丰富，文化遗产有效保护，风貌特色 更加彰显，城市成为人民群众高品质生活的空间。 国资委 ...

Group 1: Brokerage Sector Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see a valuation recovery throughout the year, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for listed brokerages, up 25% and 83% year-on-year respectively in Q1 2025 [1] - Key drivers of growth include brokerage, margin financing, and proprietary trading, with notable year-on-year increases of 49%, 51%, and 27% in brokerage, proprietary trading, and net interest income respectively [1] - The resilience of investment banking and asset management businesses is better than expected, indicating a positive growth outlook for brokerage and margin financing businesses [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Fund Reform - The recent implementation of public fund reforms is anticipated to drive valuation in the banking sector, with a focus on aligning fund allocations with performance benchmarks [2] - The banking sector is currently under-allocated in active equity, with a deviation of nearly 10 percentage points from the CSI 300 index, suggesting significant potential for increased allocation [2] - Recent policy measures aimed at economic recovery, along with the expansion of passive funds and accelerated entry of insurance capital, are expected to support the banking sector's market performance [2] Group 3: Metal Industry Investment Opportunities - The metal industry is projected to experience steady profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with gold, nickel, cobalt, tin, rare earths, and copper leading the sector [3] - Current valuations in the metal industry remain relatively low, particularly for aluminum, copper, and nickel, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - The industry is also seeing an increase in dividend returns, with some stocks offering dividend yields exceeding 5%, enhancing shareholder return capabilities [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment impact of current tariff policies has weakened. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically. For stock index futures trading, it is suggested to buy IF long positions on dips, and no arbitrage opportunities are recommended for now [4]. - The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the short - term market risk preference has increased, so the bond market faces certain adjustment pressure. However, considering the decline in capital interest rates after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the short - end bonds still have cost - effectiveness. The long - end bonds may face adjustment pressure due to short - term tariff changes and supply pressure, and opportunities after the correction should be awaited [6]. - Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend in the short term due to the hawkish Fed monetary policy expectations and the release of tariff risks. Gold should wait for further correction before going long, and silver is recommended to be on the sidelines for now [8]. - For most metals, although the Sino - US negotiation has achieved certain results, the current tariff level is still high, and the market sentiment may be limited. The supply and demand fundamentals of each metal vary, and the price trends are also different. Some metals may face short - term upward pressure, while others may have downward risks [10][11][12]. - For black building materials, the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs may boost market confidence, but the long - term demand is still under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each variety also need to be closely monitored [22]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price declines due to increased supply and weak demand, while others may have short - term trading opportunities due to specific events [39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price trends of different products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. Some products are expected to be stable or have short - term fluctuations, while others may face downward pressure [50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, and other major indexes showed different trends. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1291.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The sentiment impact of tariff policies has weakened. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF long positions on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the TL, T, and TS main contracts rose, while the TF main contract fell slightly. The US may pass a large - scale tax - cut bill, and the US CPI data in April was lower than expected [5]. - The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the short - term bond market faces adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds still have cost - effectiveness, and the long - end bonds may face adjustment pressure and opportunities after the correction should be awaited [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver, showed different degrees of increase. The US CPI data in April was lower than expected, but there are still potential inflation risks [7]. - Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend in the short term. Gold should wait for further correction before going long, and silver is recommended to be on the sidelines for now [8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - The US inflation data was weaker than expected, and the Sino - US tariff adjustment details were announced. LME copper rose 1.29% to $9624/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipts increased [10]. - The Sino - US negotiation results were better than expected, but the current tariff level is still high. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper is tight, and the consumption shows signs of weakening. The short - term copper price is difficult to continue rising [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation sentiment was positive, and the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum rose 0.95% to $2493/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,155 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased [11]. - The Sino - US negotiation results were better than expected, and the short - term inventory decline supports the aluminum price. However, the seasonal weak demand may limit the upward space of the aluminum price [11]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 0.69% to 22,228 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, and the zinc ingot inventory showed a small increase [12]. - The zinc concentrate is in surplus, and the short - term near - end is relatively strong. However, the downstream procurement sustainability is limited, and the zinc price may have a downward risk in the medium term [12]. 3.2.4 Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.17% to 16,965 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell. The lead concentrate port inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory increased [13][14]. - The lead concentrate is in surplus, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side shock. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a range of 16,300 - 17,800 yuan [14]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Shanghai nickel rose 0.20% to 124,430 yuan/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.25% to $15,745/ton. The cost side is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak [15]. - The nickel price should be treated with a bearish view. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to run in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of $15,000 - 16,300/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Tin - Shanghai tin fell 0.43% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The supply side is expected to loosen, and the demand side is affected by tariffs [16]. - If the downstream demand remains weak, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan, and the overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000 [16]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium fell 0.26%, and the LC2507 contract fell 1.28%. The macro - sentiment improvement did not continuously boost the lithium price, and the cost support decreased, and the inventory was high [17]. - The lithium price rebound faces resistance. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is expected to run in the range of 62,500 - 63,800 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.8 Alumina - The alumina index remained flat at 2840 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. The spot prices in some regions rose, and the overseas price remained unchanged. The supply side is disturbed, and the cost support decreases [18]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to run in the range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.31% to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased. The spot prices in some markets rose, and the raw material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased [19]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply - side concerns increased. The demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the Philippine policy and the domestic demand recovery [19]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - The rebar main contract fell 0.09% to 3079 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.15% to 3215 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts and trading volumes of both decreased [21]. - The Sino - US trade tariff reduction may boost market confidence, and the short - term plate demand and exports may strengthen, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [22]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore main contract (I2509) fell 0.56% to 714.50 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand may peak and decline, and the inventory is slightly reduced [23]. - The Sino - US negotiation boosted the market, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - situation [23]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - The glass spot price remained unchanged, and the inventory increased. The soda ash spot price was stable, and the supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high [24][25]. - The glass futures price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash futures price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [25]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The manganese silicon main contract fell 0.95% to 5810 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.43% to 5612 yuan/ton. The demand for both is expected to weaken, and the supply of ferrosilicon increased [26][27][29]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and the ferrosilicon price may continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][29]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.08% to 8230 yuan/ton. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The downstream production is restricted [30]. - The industrial silicon price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [30][31]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - The rubber price rebounded due to the Sino - US negotiation. The butadiene rubber rose sharply. Thailand plans to postpone rubber tapping [33]. - The tire factory's operating rate decreased, and the rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [33][34][35]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, while INE crude oil futures fell. The gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories in the port decreased [36][37][38]. - The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and the OPEC may increase production in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [38]. 3.4.3 Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 21 yuan/ton to 2291 yuan/ton. The supply pressure increased, and the demand weakened. The price is expected to decline [39]. - It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities [39]. 3.4.4 Urea - The urea 09 contract remained unchanged at 1897 yuan/ton. The export news impact is marginalized, and the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season [40]. - It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and wait and see for non - holders [40]. 3.4.5 Styrene - The styrene 06 contract rose 427 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The cost increased, and the supply was low, and the downstream demand weakened [41]. - The styrene price rebound should be treated with caution [41]. 3.4.6 PVC - The PVC09 contract rose 1 yuan to 4837 yuan/ton. The cost was stable, the supply was high, and the demand was weak [42]. - The short - term PVC price may rebound, but the medium - term is expected to be weak and fluctuate [42]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 47 yuan to 4349 yuan/ton. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, and the terminal demand has improvement expectations [43]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities [43]. 3.4.8 PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 40 yuan to 4750 yuan/ton. The supply was in the maintenance season, and the terminal demand had improvement expectations [44]. - The PTA processing fee has support, but the absolute price may face risks [44]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6708 yuan/ton. The supply was in the maintenance season, and the terminal demand had improvement expectations [45][46]. - The PX is expected to de - stock in the second quarter, but the short - term valuation is high and risks should be noted [46]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price rose, but the upward space of valuation is limited. The supply will increase in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. - The short - term PE price may be affected by supply, and the medium - term is expected to fluctuate [47]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price rose slightly, and the supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season [48]. - The PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly in May, and it is recommended to track the LL - PP spread [48]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - The domestic pig price was mainly stable, and the supply and demand were in a game. The short - term price fluctuation is limited, and the pressure is accumulated [50]. - It is recommended to short on rallies and wait and see in the short term [50]. 3.5.2 Eggs - The egg price mostly rose, and the supply pressure was large. The short - term price may be stable with some fluctuations [51]. - It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The overnight US soybean rose, and the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly. The supply of US and domestic soybeans is expected to be large in the short term, and the valuation is low [52][53]. - The US soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward breakthrough needs additional stimulation [53]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in April, and the production increased in May, and the export decreased. The US soybean oil may be supported by policies [54]. - The oils and fats may face downward pressure in the medium term, but the short - term may fluctuate or be slightly bullish [55]. 3.5.5 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly, and the international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season [56]. - The domestic sugar price may maintain a high - level shock in the short term, but the downward risk increases in the long term [57]. 3.5.6 Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly, and the USDA report was mixed. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59]. - The short - term cotton price may be boosted, and the future focus is on the marginal change of inventory [59].

欧美贸易谈判最新进展——美财长发话了。 周二，美国财政部长贝森特在利雅得举行的沙特-美国投资论坛上，被问及关税谈判进展时表示，欧盟 面临一个"集体行动问题"，这在一定程度上阻碍了贸易谈判的进展。 简单来说，"集体行动问题"指的是，欧盟内部各个国家的利益并不完全一致。贝森特举例称，意大利和 法国的需求不一致，这种分歧让谈判变得更复杂。 贝森特认为，尽管如此，最终美欧之间会达成一个满意的结论，但这个过程注定会比与其他国家的谈判 要慢得多。 特朗普总统长期对欧盟颇有不满，他曾表示，这个联盟就是为了坑美国而成立的，在此背景下，欧盟成 为达成协议的优先对象的可能性很低。 不过，虽然如此，美国和欧盟之间的贸易规模依然庞大。国际货币基金组织数据显示，去年欧美双边贸 易总额接近1万亿美元，且欧盟在这笔交易中占据了明显的优势，欧盟对美国的贸易顺差达到了2500亿 美元。 贝森特为什么这么说？ 有分析指出，贝森特提到"集体行动问题"，似乎是想通过制造欧盟内部分歧来推动谈判进展，但从目前 的情况来看，欧盟内部并没有出现明显裂痕。德国总理梅尔茨与特朗普的电话沟通中就明确表示，欧洲 在贸易问题上不能分裂。 在欧盟内部，尽管整体战略保持 ...

德国智库ZEW：随着德国新政府的组建、关税争端取得一些进展以及通胀率趋于稳定，市场乐观情绪 有所提升。银行、汽车、化工、金属、机械和钢铁行业的前景特别有所改善。 ...

镍库存198516吨，增加762吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存189650吨，减少1100吨。 铝库存399300吨，减少2225吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade negotiation results were slightly better than market expectations, which had a certain positive impact on the market, but the impact on different industries varied. Some industries were expected to improve in demand, while others still faced challenges such as supply - demand imbalance [23][11] - For most commodities, the short - term market was affected by the negotiation results, but the medium - and long - term trends still depended on their own supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [16][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.63%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - **Macro News**: Sino - US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended 24% of the counter - tariffs; traders reduced bets on ECB rate cuts; Goldman Sachs expected the RMB exchange rate to rise to 7 yuan per US dollar within a year [2] - **Funding**: The margin trading balance decreased by 4.7 billion yuan; the overnight Shibor rate rose 7.5 bp to 1.4970%, etc. [2] - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The emotional impact of the tariff policy has weakened. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index long positions on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined [5] - **News**: Sino - US reached an agreement on tariff adjustments in the Geneva economic and trade talks [5][6] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 43 billion yuan [6] - **Strategy**: The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the bond market faced short - term adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds were still cost - effective, and the long - end bonds were expected to have opportunities after the callback [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 2.52%, Shanghai silver fell 0.75%, while COMEX gold rose 0.37%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48% [7] - **Market Outlook**: Maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish view on gold. In the short term, gold prices may continue to correct, but in the medium term, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit will drive gold prices up [7][8] - **Strategy**: Wait for the gold price to correct significantly and then buy on dips, focusing on the support at 740 yuan/g. Temporarily observe the silver price, with the reference range of 7553 - 8380 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver main contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After rising, the copper price fell back. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the reference range of 77200 - 78500 yuan/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rebounded significantly. The domestic inventory decreased rapidly, but the consumption was seasonally weak. The price was expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 19600 - 20100 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract [12] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term zinc price may rebound [13][14] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term lead price showed a strong - side shock [15] - **Nickel**: The nickel price fell significantly. The supply exceeded demand, and it was recommended to hold short positions, with the reference range of 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai nickel main contract [16] - **Tin**: The tin price rose. The supply was short - term tight but was expected to ease, and the tin price might decline if the demand remained weak, with the reference range of 250000 - 270000 yuan for the domestic main contract [17] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was stable. The short - term bottom was expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to downstream orders, with the reference range of 63400 - 64800 yuan/ton for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract [18] - **Alumina**: The price rose. The supply was disturbed, and the cost support declined. It was recommended to observe in the short term, with the reference range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract AO2509 [19] - **Stainless Steel**: The price rose. The Sino - US negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply was worried about the Philippine export ban. The demand was weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and demand recovery [20] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The Sino - US trade tariff reduction might boost market confidence, and the demand for plates might improve marginally in the short term [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply was slightly reduced, and the demand was expected to peak and decline. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [24] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price was stable, with inventory accumulation and expected weak operation. The soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high. The medium - term supply was loose, and the price was expected to be weak [25][26] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of both rose. The manganese silicon was expected to stop falling and enter the shock stage, and the ferrosilicon was recommended to be observed or short - term tracked. The demand for both was expected to weaken [27][28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to observe and beware of price decline [31][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price rebounded. Thailand planned to postpone tapping, but the market had different expectations for production reduction. It was recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [34][37] - **Crude Oil**: The price rose. The current oil price was considered to be in the high - valuation range, and it was recommended to short on rallies [38] - **Methanol and Urea**: The prices of both rose. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. It was recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [39][40][41] - **Styrene**: The price rose. The cost and supply were affected by multiple factors, and the price was treated as a rebound [42] - **PVC**: The price rose. The supply and demand were weak, and the short - term price was expected to rebound and the medium - term to fluctuate weakly [43] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rose. The industry was in the de - stocking stage, and it was recommended to buy on dips when the port de - stocking was confirmed [44] - **PTA and p - Xylene**: The prices of both rose. They were in the maintenance season, and it was recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [45][46] - **Polyethylene PE**: The price rose. The supply might be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price was expected to fluctuate [47][48] - **Polypropylene PP**: The price rose. The supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly [49] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price was mainly stable. The short - term price fluctuated little, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the shock market [51] - **Eggs**: The price mostly rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean rose. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [53][54] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil was affected by production and exports, and the US soybean oil was expected to be boosted by policies. The oils and fats were expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [55][57] - **Sugar**: The price rebounded. The domestic sugar price might be high - volatile in the short term but was likely to decline in the future [58][59] - **Cotton**: The price rebounded. The Sino - US negotiation boosted the short - term price, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with attention to inventory changes [60]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market situation is complex, affected by macro - policies, international trade (especially tariff policies), and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different asset classes show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to buy certain index futures on dips; in the bond market, a cautious strategy is suggested for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds may have better performance; in the commodity market, various commodities have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][6]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with a decrease in trading volume. Macro news includes CPI and PPI data, and trade data. The liquidity is relatively loose. Due to the weakening of the emotional impact of tariff policies and the potential for domestic policy adjustment, it is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, or buy IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy exceeding expectations at the press conference, the long - term interest rate has already priced in the interest rate cut expectation, so a cautious strategy is recommended in the short term. The short - term bonds are expected to be more cost - effective. The long - term trend depends on the fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [5][6]. - **Precious Metals**: In the short term, precious metal prices are driven to be weak by the macro - environment and capital positions. However, considering the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year and the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, gold prices are expected to rise in the medium term after a short - term correction, and silver prices may show a strong performance when the Fed's easing expectations are concentrated. It is recommended to wait for a significant correction in gold prices and then buy long positions, and to wait and see or short on rallies for silver [7][8][9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to face greater pressure for shock adjustment due to the uncertain result of Sino - US trade negotiations, the tight supply of copper ore and recycled copper, and the marginal weakening of consumption [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. Although the domestic policy exceeds expectations, the bearish atmosphere in the commodity market continues, and the consumption is marginally weakening. However, the improvement in downstream demand after the short - term price correction provides strong support [12]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, the near - end is relatively strong, but in the medium term, due to the limited downstream purchasing sustainability and the pressure of imported zinc ingots, the zinc price may decline [13][14]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a box in the medium term, and the short - term price shows a weak shock [15]. - **Nickel**: The continuous weakness of the nickel - iron price is the main driver for the decline of the nickel price. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to range from 115,000 to 130,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and with the impact of tariffs on demand, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals lack positive drivers, and the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the operating disturbances of mines and salt factories, the price trend of lithium concentrate, and demand performance [18]. - **Alumina**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, the supply surplus trend is difficult to change, and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread opportunity [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply is at a high level, the market has large inventory pressure, and the supply - demand imbalance brings downward pressure on the price [20]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The traditional peak season is over, the demand for finished steel products has shifted downward, and the price may maintain a weak shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policy changes, terminal demand trends, and cost support [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore has a slight decline in shipping volume, and the demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main 09 contract may still be weak [24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is weak, with inventory accumulation. The soda ash supply is at a high level with a slight decline, and the price is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: For manganese silicon, the price may stop falling and enter a shock stage, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, the price may continue to decline, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price returns to range - bound. The implementation of Thailand's policy to postpone rubber tapping is the focus of the market. There are different views on the rise and fall of the price. It is recommended to adopt a neutral and short - term trading strategy [36][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been realized as expected. In the context of low inventory, buying on dips and short - term positive spread is a good position [40]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [41]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is expected to be relatively strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take partial profit on previous long positions and wait and see for new positions [42]. - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure, but the low port inventory may limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The industry is in a short - term de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips when the port de - stocking is realized [45]. - **PTA and p - Xylene**: Both are in the maintenance season. There is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term, but the short - term valuation is supported. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spread [46][47]. - **Polyethylene and Polypropylene**: The price of polyethylene is expected to fluctuate. The price of polypropylene is expected to be weakly volatile in May [48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The short - term pig price may be adjusted slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by emotions such as hoarding and second - fattening [51]. - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and soybean meal in China are expected to accumulate inventory in the next three months. The USDA report may have a short - term negative impact, but there may be a chance for a rebound after the negative news is exhausted [53][54]. - **Edible Oils**: The medium - term price of edible oils may decline, but the short - term may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the expected release of the new RVO rule in the United States [55][58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price may decline in the second and third quarters. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and inventory changes [61].

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows little short-term volatility, currently at 1.1296 [1] - The European Union proposed tariffs on $95 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [1] - The EU's tariff plan includes aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1] Group 2 - The EU is considering export restrictions on $4.4 billion worth of scrap metal and chemicals to the U.S. [1] - The tariff plan also covers meat, fish, and agricultural products [1] - The EU will initiate a dispute resolution process against the U.S. regarding automotive and reciprocal tariff issues at the World Trade Organization [1]