Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the central government's approach to the real estate market, emphasizing "stabilizing the market" rather than merely pushing for recovery [2][4][13] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing increased downward pressure, with the supply-demand relationship shifting from total shortage to basic balance, highlighting structural supply deficiencies [2][4] - The central economic work conference has outlined a policy framework focusing on supply-demand coordination, inventory reduction, and promoting quality housing [3][5] - The report notes that as of November 2025, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area stands at 753 million square meters, indicating a high inventory level that requires ongoing efforts for reduction [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market is under pressure, with new housing transaction volumes continuing to decline, while "good houses" are becoming the mainstay of market support [1] - The central government's focus has shifted to stabilizing the market, with an emphasis on addressing structural supply issues and enhancing the quality of housing [2][4] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference has introduced measures to control land supply, encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing, and promote the construction of quality housing [3][4] - The report highlights that local governments are expected to implement various policies, including purchase subsidies and tax reductions, to stimulate inventory reduction [4][5] Demand Dynamics - The demand side is seeing improvements, with the central government advocating for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the housing market, particularly in core cities [5] - Recent policy changes in Beijing have aimed to optimize housing purchase restrictions, supporting families with multiple children and adjusting credit policies [5][8] Market Performance - In November 2025, the average price of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a slight month-on-month increase, while the overall sales volume and value continued to decline year-on-year [5][8] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with significant declines noted in major cities, although transaction volumes are showing signs of recovery [8][9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11% today, with a trading volume of 1,004.34 million shares and a transaction value of 17,424.85 billion yuan, representing a 0.72% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: Up by 2.43%, with a transaction value of 162.59 billion yuan, led by Tongyi Co., which rose by 10.01% [1]. - Machinery Equipment: Increased by 1.38%, with a transaction value of 1,591.32 billion yuan, led by Buke Co., which surged by 20.00% [1]. - Automotive: Gained 1.35%, with a transaction value of 949.77 billion yuan, led by Tsinghua Technology, which rose by 30.00% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - Commercial Retail: Decreased by 1.66%, with a transaction value of 298.04 billion yuan, led by Baida Group, which fell by 10.00% [2]. - Social Services: Down by 1.13%, with a transaction value of 104.28 billion yuan, led by Tian Su Measurement, which dropped by 15.65% [2]. - Real Estate: Fell by 1.02%, with a transaction value of 180.88 billion yuan, led by Suzhou High-tech, which declined by 6.88% [2].

Overall Research - In December, A-shares showed a general increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 6.3% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 1.4%. The defense, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors performed well, while financial real estate and consumer sectors lagged behind [1][7] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility in December, influenced by expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and fluctuations in US stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.8% [1][10] A-share Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a steady upward trend, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and increased capital inflows. Historically, a "spring rally" occurs almost every year in the A-share market, with 13 out of 14 years since 2012 (excluding 2022) witnessing such rallies [2][15] - The central economic work conference emphasized a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," which is expected to provide a solid foundation for economic growth and capital market prosperity [2][15][16] - The report suggests focusing on growth and consumer sectors, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing, which have historically shown greater elasticity during spring rallies. The consumer sector, currently underperforming, may attract "missed opportunity" funds [2][17][18] Hong Kong Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to domestic policy support and a weaker US dollar. Despite recent gains, overall valuations remain low, indicating high long-term investment value [3][20] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. Key areas include self-sufficiency, chips, and high-end manufacturing, as well as stable dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities [3][20] Stock Recommendations - For January 2026, the A-share stock selection includes: - Sunlord Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, SMIC, PetroChina, Sinopec, Haier Smart Home, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, and Shanghai Lingang [2][22] - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for January 2026 are: - Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Yujian, and Goldwind Technology [2][26]

又到年终总结季，是不是感觉忙忙碌碌一年，却不知道从何写起？本期"财米油盐"盘点2025年具有代表 性的经济社会热点。这些与国家发展、民生改善紧密相连的"大项目"，离不开"你"的参与。 第一，"新人"登场。 "具身智能"首次写入政府工作报告。机器人上舞台、下工厂，成了年度"最强新人"。训练它、操作它、 优化它的或许就是屏幕前的你。这个未来的万亿大市场，你不仅在观众席，更是在产业发展第一线。 第二，"苏超"出圈。 还记得赛场上的烧烤赞助吗？朴实无华的广告，映照出全民参与的热度。今年夏天，无数的你为了一场 球赛奔赴一座城，用一声声加油喊出江苏380亿元的消费活力。小门店、大景区，都留下过你的打卡身 影。 第三，"以旧换新"。 今年前11个月，消费品"以旧换新"带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。你可能换了新 汽车、新手机，买了新电器、新家具。以旧换新不仅升级了你我生活，更拉动了循环经济。 第四，外贸逆袭。 这一年，中国在更加风云变幻的国际经贸环境中持续扩大制度型开放。是你深夜回复的外语邮件，还有 凌晨热闹的跨境直播间，撑起中国外贸逆风飞翔。 第五，企业"反内卷"。 光伏、汽车、电商"价格战"齐熄火 ...

2 l 宏观经济高频数据一览表 l 生产端 l 消费端 l 地产基建 l 进出口 l 物价通胀 l 交通运输 宏观经济 高频数据一览表 宏观经济 高频数据统计周报 2025.12.22-2025.12.28 分析师： 蒋开来 中央编号： BWL381 联系电话： 852-6430 1060 邮箱： jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk 1 目录 3 宏观经济高频数据一览表 | 指标名称 数据频率 | | | 更新时间 | 最新值 | 前值 | | 环比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生产 | | | | | | | | | 焦炉开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/12/26 | 70. 33 | 70. 48 | e | -0.15 | | 高炉开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/12/26 | 78. 3 | 78. 45 | P | -0. 15 | | PX开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/12/29 | 88. 40 | 89.21 | 3 | -0. 81 | | PTA开工率(%) | | 周频 | ...

今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于73.52一线上方，今日开盘于72.19美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报73.92美元/盎司，上涨2.45%，最高触及73.99美元/盎司，最低下探71.12美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 全美不动产协会(NAR)周一表示，随着住房可负担性改善吸引买家，11月美国成屋签约销售意外飙升至 近三年来最高水平。 美国11月成屋签约销售指数环比上涨3.3%，至79.2，为2023年2月以来的最高水平，预期为上涨1%，前 值从上涨1.9%上修至2.4%。11月成屋签约销售指数同比上涨2.6%。本次数据几乎好于媒体调查的所有 经济学家的预期。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示：住房可负担性的改善——主要得益于按揭贷款利率下降，以及工 资涨幅快于房价上涨，正在促使买家开始试水市场。与此同时，相比去年更充足的房源选择，也在吸引 更多买家进入市场。 分析指出，最新数据表明，正如许多经济学家所预期的那样，美国住房市场正在逐步改善，并有望延续 到2026年。今年5月一度接近7%的按揭贷款利率，目前已回落并稳定在6.3%–6. ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下， | | 纽约市场盘中一度大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封跌停； | | 沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%，夜盘进一步下跌4%。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX | | 白银期货收跌7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。 | | 中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体。中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 | | 2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 | | 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东等区域，组织"正 ...

什么是次生灾害？就是在经历一次大震荡之后依然持续不断的余震。这样的余震虽然看上去没有第一次 来得那么明显，但是也持续不断地带来漫长的影响。 但是当行业供不应求的情况发生了变化，当客户买房周期被拉长，当房产竞争压力激增之后，很明显这 样的能力已然不适用，也不再被需要。而转念去找寻懂产品的第三方，却发现行业内却没有这样的供 给：老乙方生存艰难更别说转型，新乙方尚未想要进入地产。 02 当然，所谓乙方的存在，本质上是为甲方做坚定不移的执行的。之所以会有这样的鸿沟，几乎源于行业 整体的转型。 此时此刻的房地产市场也是如此。很多人以为，房地产最大的一次影响是两三年前，带来的冲击是企业 暴雷，半数地产人被淘汰。而2026将至，看上去不再有新的企业暴雷，但是依然在运营中的组织架构、 事业体，此时却开始暴露出一个巨大的能力短板。 01 最开始和我吐槽的是一个项目的操盘手。他表达的一个主要内核是：目前在市面上他找不到满意的广告 公司。 对于地产广告公司，我们剔除执行层面的苦力活，在专业维度，几乎所有的地产广告擅长做两件事：一 种是围绕着土地挖掘故事、找寻亮点以及制造概念——这种几乎成为了主旋律，大量的故事线表达都是 基于地段作 ...

从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，长城基金旗下1只基金重仓厦门国贸。长城中证红利低波100ETF（159228）三季度持有股数 44.17万股，占基金净值比例为1.88%，位居第三大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约16.34万元。 长城中证红利低波100ETF（159228）成立日期2025年6月5日，最新规模1.45亿。成立以来收益4.03%。 12月30日，厦门国贸跌4.71%，截至发稿，报7.48元/股，成交1.16亿元，换手率0.73%，总市值159.89亿 元。 长城中证红利低波100ETF（159228）基金经理为陶曙斌。 资料显示，厦门国贸集团股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市湖里区仙岳路4688号国贸中心，成立日期1996 年12月24日，上市日期1996年10月3日，公司主营业务涉及供应链管理、房地产经营、金融服务。主营 业务收入构成为：供应链管理业务99.63%，健康科技业务0.36%，其他板块业务0.02%。 截至发稿，陶曙斌累计任职时间8年285天，现任基金资产总规模1.99亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 130.74%， 任职期间最差基金回报-38.15%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本 ...

江苏省委经济工作会议指出，要根据中央经济工作会议部署的重点任务，结合我省推动高质量发展的实 际，抓住关键、纲举目张地做好明年工作。在中央经济工作会议确定的明年经济工作重点任务中，"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"是第一条任务，明确提出内需主导并把国内市场建设放在极其重要的 位置上。这表明在新的复杂的国内外政治经济形势下，扩大内需问题直接决定了国内经济可循环的程度 和力度，决定了内需在内循环主导外循环新发展格局形成中的地位和重要性。 习近平总书记在《扩大内需是战略之举》一文中指出，"总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾"。 中央经济工作会议强调，我国当前"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"。这些重要判断，既反映出扩大内需是一项 长期而艰巨的任务，也充分凸显了当前扩大有效需求、增强内循环的重要性和紧迫性。据此，省委经济 工作会议指出，要在深入挖掘内需潜力上下功夫，深入实施提振消费专项行动，谋划实施一批牵引性强 的重大项目。 从理论上看，扩大内需是指扩大国内有效需求，包括国内消费者对商品服务的有货币支付能力的需求和 各类主体对生产资料的有货币支付能力的投资需求两个部分。扩大国内有效需求对江苏经济的重要性， 是江苏经济运行中 ...