Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The convertible bond market experienced an incremental correction today, with compressed valuations. The market style favored large-cap value stocks, and trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The prices and valuations of convertible bonds showed certain changes, and most industries in the stock and convertible bond markets declined [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 1.81% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 3.07%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.57%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 3.95% [1]. - In terms of market style, large-cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large-cap growth decreased by 1.73%, large-cap value increased by 0.89%, mid-cap growth decreased by 3.38%, mid-cap value decreased by 2.33%, small-cap growth decreased by 4.30%, and small-cap value decreased by 2.50% [1]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market reached 75.94 billion yuan, a 14.19% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 3.157558 trillion yuan, a 3.67% increase compared to the previous day. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 130.445 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 0.46bp to 1.78% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - Convertible bond prices: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 141.20 yuan, a 1.64% decrease compared to the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity-biased convertible bonds was 220.86 yuan, a 0.30% increase; the closing price of bond-biased convertible bonds was 121.65 yuan, a 0.24% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 133.66 yuan, a 0.62% decrease. The proportion of high-priced bonds above 130 yuan was 75.20%, a 2.84 percentage point decrease compared to the previous day. The price median was 138.77 yuan, a 1.46% decrease compared to the previous day [2]. - Convertible bond valuation: The fitted conversion premium rate of 100-yuan par value was 38.12%, a 2.17 percentage point decrease compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 106.02 yuan, a 2.07% decrease compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity-biased convertible bonds was 20.36%, a 0.67 percentage point increase; the premium rate of bond-biased convertible bonds was 85.73%, a 1.29 percentage point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 27.07%, a 0.77 percentage point decrease [2]. 4. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (-6.74%), non-ferrous metals (-5.61%), and electronics (-5.30%); the top three industries with the largest increases were petroleum and petrochemicals (+6.75%), coal (+1.76%), and transportation (+1.14%). - In the convertible bond market, 27 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were communications (-5.51%), electronics (-4.26%), and non-ferrous metals (-3.89%); the only industry that rose against the trend was banking (+0.07%) [3]. - Closing price: The large cycle decreased by 2.21%, manufacturing decreased by 3.08%, technology decreased by 3.40%, large consumption decreased by 1.45%, and large finance decreased by 0.51% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large cycle increased by 0.8 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 1.7 percentage points, technology increased by 3.0 percentage points, large consumption increased by 2.5 percentage points, and large finance increased by 2.1 percentage points [3]. - Conversion value: The large cycle decreased by 2.70%, manufacturing decreased by 4.16%, technology decreased by 5.31%, large consumption decreased by 2.25%, and large finance decreased by 0.17% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large cycle decreased by 3.4 percentage points, manufacturing decreased by 5.2 percentage points, technology decreased by 6.1 percentage points, large consumption decreased by 1.9 percentage points, and large finance decreased by 0.59 percentage points [3]. 5. Industry Rotation - Industries leading the rise included petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and transportation. The daily increase rates of petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and transportation were 6.75%, 1.76%, and 1.14% respectively. In the convertible bond market, the daily increase rate of the banking industry was 0.07%, and it was the only industry that rose [52].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dynamic balance strategy that has achieved an annualized absolute return of 19.15% and a relative return of 12.37% from January 2015 to February 27, 2026, with a maximum drawdown of 10.18% [3][55] - Recommended industries for March 2026 include non-ferrous metals, electric equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, steel, telecommunications, and machinery [3][55] - The macro-driven strategy has generated an annualized excess return of 4.75% since January 2016, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [4][45] - The multi-strategy approach has yielded an annualized relative return of 6.23% since May 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.44% [5][67] - The extreme style high Beta strategy has achieved an annualized relative return of 10.05% since July 2013, with a maximum drawdown of 13.44% [5][79] Market Review - In February, the overall A-share market rose, with the small and mid-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. The CSI 300 index had a return of 0.09%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices returned 3.44% and 3.71%, respectively [16][17] - The top five performing sectors in February were steel, building materials, machinery, coal, and defense industry, while the bottom five were media, non-bank financials, consumer services, retail, and telecommunications [16][17] Industry Configuration Dynamic Balance Strategy - The dynamic balance strategy achieved an absolute return of 3.89% in February, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 1.98% [3][55] - The strategy's performance since the beginning of 2026 has resulted in an absolute return of 13.83%, with an excess return of 5.39% relative to the mixed equity fund index [3][55] Macro-Driven Strategy - The macro-driven strategy recommended industries for March 2026 include oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, telecommunications, defense industry, and banking [4][45] - The strategy achieved an absolute return of 2.43% in February, with an excess return of 0.16% [4][45] Multi-Strategy Configuration - The multi-strategy approach recommended industries for March 2026 include telecommunications, real estate, construction, banking, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [5][57] - The strategy's absolute return in February was 1.48%, with an excess return of -0.83% [5][65] Extreme Style High Beta Strategy - The extreme style high Beta strategy recommended industries for March 2026 include banking, electric utilities, coal, transportation, basic chemicals, and automobiles [5][79] - The strategy achieved an absolute return of 4.27% in February, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 2.06% [5][79] Industry Crowding Indicators - In February, crowding indicators showed fewer triggers across industries, with coal, electric utilities, steel, basic chemicals, building materials, and electric equipment and new energy showing signs of crowding [6][83]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400), which opened down by 1.80% at 2.453 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Nonferrous Metals ETF include Zijin Mining, which opened down by 1.03%, and other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum down by 2.02%, Northern Rare Earth down by 0.58%, and Huayou Cobalt down by 1.05% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Southern Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 154.70% since its inception on August 3, 2017, and a return of 14.07% over the past month [1]

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Group 1 - The report highlights two main investment themes: cyclical price increases supported by economic recovery and the technology manufacturing sector [1] - In February, the A-share market experienced a volume contraction with small-cap and dividend stocks outperforming, while the technology sector shifted focus from AI to advanced manufacturing [8][4] - The report indicates that the semiconductor price increase trend continues, with the DXI index rising by 6.1% month-on-month and over 12 times year-on-year [2][3] Group 2 - In the upstream cyclical sector, prices for non-ferrous metals are fluctuating at high levels, while most petrochemical products are experiencing price increases [12][14] - The report notes that the cost pressure in the midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in new energy materials, is easing, but the recovery of domestic demand remains to be observed [17][2] - In the consumer sector, overall domestic demand is still weak, but there are optimistic signals in certain industries such as liquor and second-hand housing [3][11] Group 3 - The valuation comparison shows that the cyclical, manufacturing, and electronic sectors are experiencing valuation expansion, currently at historically high levels [5][6] - The report suggests that macroeconomic events and fundamental impacts will increase in March, with recommendations to focus on cyclical price increases and technology manufacturing as key investment themes [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of domestic demand and the performance of specific sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and second-hand housing [3][11]

Market Overview - On March 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.43%, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.54%, the STAR 50 dropped by 5.21%, the CSI 1000 declined by 3.95%, the ChiNext Index fell by 2.57%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.12% [4] - The best-performing sectors on March 3 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+6.75%), Coal (+1.76%), Transportation (+1.14%), Banking (+1.07%), and Utilities (+0.49%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense & Military Industry (-6.74%), Nonferrous Metals (-5.61%), Electronics (-5.3%), Computers (-4.94%), and Media (-4.29%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on March 3 was 31,576 billion, with a net inflow of 6.081 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Fixed Income and Credit Bonds - In January 2026, the banking sector showed a "stable corporate, weak household" characteristic in the credit sector, with performance slightly weak. The growth rate of household deposits fell to a historical low, indicating a marginal strengthening trend in the "deposit migration index," but deposits mainly remained in banks in the form of "non-bank deposits." The overall liability side of banks remained relatively ample, leading to a widening gap of 3.78 percentage points in loan-to-deposit growth rates, forcing banks to turn to the bond market for allocation, providing rigid buying support for interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds [5][6] Macroeconomic Outlook - The economic operation in the first two months of 2026 is expected to continue the structural characteristics of stable supply, recovering demand, moderate prices, and weak credit. The industrial production value added is expected to grow by approximately 5.0% year-on-year, while retail sales are projected to rebound to 5.1% year-on-year, although the real estate sector remains weak, constraining household consumption and investment. Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be around 2.0%, with manufacturing showing resilience and infrastructure likely to be supported by policy measures. External demand is expected to remain resilient, with export growth projected at 4.6% and import growth at 1.7%. CPI is expected to rise moderately to 0.7%, while PPI is expected to hover around -1.3%. Overall, steady growth policies are expected to support a "good start" in the first quarter, but the recovery slope will depend on alleviating real estate drag and sustaining internal demand [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, on market dynamics, emphasizing the potential for increased risk premiums in resource sectors and the historical context of market reactions to conflicts [3][4][12]. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - Recent conflicts in the Middle East have led to heightened geopolitical risks, affecting market sentiment and driving up prices for gold, oil, and certain resource commodities [4][12]. - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that geopolitical turmoil strengthens the mid-term bullish logic for resource sectors, including energy, precious metals, and military equipment, due to increased risk premiums [4]. - According to Huatai Securities, while Iran's share of global energy production is limited (4.5% for oil and 6.4% for natural gas), the Middle East and North Africa region holds a significant share (33.6% for oil and 21.3% for natural gas), making it crucial for global energy supply stability [4]. Historical Context of Conflicts - Historical analysis by Guoxin Securities shows that international conflicts have a limited long-term impact on equity markets, with initial negative reactions often followed by recovery in the weeks following the event [7][8]. - The report highlights that since 2000, during the initial week of conflicts, the S&P 500 index had a median decline of -0.2%, while the recovery period (one week to one month post-conflict) saw a median increase of 1.4% [7][10]. Commodity Price Dynamics - The price movements of gold and oil are characterized by significant "situational" features, with initial spikes in response to geopolitical tensions often followed by corrections if the situation stabilizes [9][12]. - Guoxin Securities notes that while oil prices may rise initially due to supply shocks, they can weaken in the subsequent weeks, indicating a complex relationship between geopolitical events and commodity pricing [9]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article suggests that market reactions to geopolitical events are often predictable, but the true determinants of investment success lie in the subsequent analysis and strategic positioning [12]. - As geopolitical tensions ease, combined with domestic policy developments, market risk appetite is expected to recover, returning to a more stable state [12].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline on March 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index at 3209.48 points, down 2.57% [1] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 31,295.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1,087.92 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the two markets exceeded 130 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 32.096 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 19.314 billion yuan, totaling 130.445 billion yuan for the day [2] - Over the last five trading days, the main funds have consistently shown a net outflow trend, with the highest outflow recorded on March 3 at 130.445 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The ChiNext market saw a significant net outflow of over 50 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 index experiencing a net outflow of 31.532 billion yuan and the ChiNext index 50.424 billion yuan [4] - In terms of sector performance, the banking sector recorded a net inflow of 5.988 billion yuan, while the coal sector saw a net inflow of 0.678 billion yuan [6][7] Institutional Activity - The top stocks with net inflows from institutions included Far East Holdings with a net buy of 93.7867 million yuan and Tongyuan Petroleum with a net buy of 45.6363 million yuan [10] - Conversely, stocks like Xinyuan Technology and Zhenhua Engineering faced significant net outflows, with the latter seeing a net outflow of 32.915 billion yuan [11] Institutional Focus - Recent institutional interest has been noted in stocks such as Weichai Power, with a target price of 32.2 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 21.69% from its latest closing price of 26.46 yuan [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in a standard form [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but with limited trading operability) [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in a standard form [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined in a standard form [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in a standard form [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in a standard form [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a standard form [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall performance of non - ferrous metals is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, dollar trends, inventory levels, and downstream demand. Different metals show different trends and investment outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - On Tuesday, copper prices fluctuated downward. High inventories may cause prices to test long - term moving average support [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum prices rose first and then fell. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference may widen. The over - supply situation of alumina has improved, but the fundamental driving force is limited [3] Zinc - The zinc market lacks short - term long - position strength. High zinc prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - side pressure of domestic zinc ingots still exists, and the overall rebound is under pressure [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel prices fluctuated and declined. The market is driven by policy sentiment in the short term, and the nickel market lacks independent driving force and gradually weakens [7] Tin - Shanghai tin prices decreased significantly with large two - way price fluctuations. The supply is expected to be stable in Q1, and the consumption outlook is weak [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices hit the daily limit down. The overall inventory reduction speed slows down, and the futures price rebound has high uncertainty [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures maintain a weak trend. The supply increases while the demand is weak, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in March [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continue to decline. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but the market sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may remain weak [11]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price has been under pressure and declined due to the spill - over of risk - aversion sentiment from the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the strengthening of the US dollar. The fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand fails to provide effective support, and the subsequent recovery of the copper market depends on the start - up of downstream industries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing an intraday decline. The US ISM manufacturing index in February expanded for two consecutive months, and the Iran conflict may increase inflation pressure. A bridge collapse in Zambia and floods disrupted the copper export route in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but the local road development agency aims to resume traffic within 48 hours [1] - The SMM China electrolytic copper production in February decreased by 36,900 tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year - on - year, 110 tons lower than expected. The production in March is expected to increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, and may reach a record high [1] - Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. With the policy impact on the domestic scrap copper industry chain, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports. The high copper price has led to strong resistance from downstream terminals, weakening the demand in the copper products sector. Currently, it is the off - season and the high price, so the performance of downstream copper products is expected to remain under pressure [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, showing an intraday decline [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is -185 yuan/ton, and in South China is -160 yuan/ton. On March 2, 2026, the LME official price is 13,285 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is -55 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 24, the spot TC is -50.97 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC is -5.02 cents/pound [9] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 300,500 tons, an increase of 4,624 tons from the previous period. As of March 2, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 91,100 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 257,700 tons, an increase of 3,975 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 601,700 short tons, an increase of 493 short tons from the previous period [13]