Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued a work plan for the construction materials industry for 2025-2026, focusing on capacity management, technological innovation, investment expansion, demand stimulation, and international cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Management - New capacity for cement clinker and flat glass is strictly prohibited, and any new or modified projects must develop capacity replacement plans [2]. - The plan aims to unify actual cement production capacity with registered capacity and enhance risk warnings for photovoltaic glass production [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The plan emphasizes strengthening the advanced inorganic non-metallic materials industry and accelerating the development of advanced ceramics and superhard materials [2]. - It aims to cultivate industries based on unique resources such as graphite, fluorite, and magnesite to improve effective supply capacity [2]. Group 3: Investment Expansion - The plan encourages digital and green transformation in the industry, promoting the development of "zero" factories in cement and flat glass sectors [2]. - It includes the revision of national standards for safety glass and insulation materials, as well as industry standards for green building materials [2]. Group 4: Demand Stimulation - Continuous efforts will be made to promote green building materials in rural areas and support government procurement policies that enhance building quality [2]. - The establishment of cooperation mechanisms between upstream and downstream enterprises in the inorganic non-metallic materials sector is encouraged [2]. Group 5: International Cooperation - The plan aims to strengthen industrial cooperation with countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, promoting the export of construction materials, technologies, and standards [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are rated as "oscillating"; coking coal is rated as "oscillating on the strong side"; and soda ash is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the short term with a long - term downward price center [5][7][8][9][11][12][13][16][17][18][19]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, but the industry's fundamentals continue to support the prices of furnace materials, which in turn support steel prices. The downward pressure before the festival is limited. In the fourth quarter, the macro and policy aspects are expected to provide upward impetus for the prices of the black building materials sector [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the increase in factory inventory reflects pre - festival restocking. After the spot price weakens, port transactions increase, and the fundamentals are healthy. However, the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals of scrap steel are marginally weakening, but it is expected that it is difficult to form an independent market, and the price will mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Currently, both coke and steel enterprises have certain production profits. Supported by the peak - season restocking demand, the short - term supply and demand are strong. The spot has started a new round of price increases, and the support is relatively strong under the stable rebound of coal prices at the cost end. It is expected that the futures market will remain oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Under the current over - speed inspection, coal mine production remains cautious, and the supply recovery is slow. The upward height is limited. At the same time, the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches before the National Day is good, and the market still has positive expectations for the end - of - month meeting. It is expected that the price will oscillate on the strong side in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The expected downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of manganese silicon, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is rather pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon. Attention should be paid to the downward range of raw material costs [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price performance of silicon iron, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may still be a wave of oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply has not changed. After the downward movement of the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the future. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2][16]. 3.5 Specific Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The peak - season demand recovery is limited, and the pre - festival restocking sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled down. The supply is high, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are contradictory, and the futures market is under pressure. However, the cost end still has certain support, and the downward space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined, and port transactions have increased. The overall supply is stable, and the short - term demand is still supported. The inventory level is moderate. The high - level demand supports, but the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has increased slightly this week, and the demand has decreased slightly. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory available days have rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price mainly follows the finished products [9]. - **Coke**: Some coke enterprises have started to raise prices, and the short - term supply and demand are strong. The raw material cost support is strong, but the coking profit is under pressure. The futures market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price has continued to rebound, and coal mines have many pre - sales orders. The supply recovery is slow, and the restocking demand before the festival is good. The price is expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term [12]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and the fundamentals are still weak. The peak - season demand needs to be verified. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level, and the oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation, and the long - term price center will decline [14][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the price is stable. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the future supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is downward space for the price center after the peak season [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is downward pressure on the price after the peak season [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a work plan for the construction materials industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity [1] Group 1: Capacity Control Measures - New production capacity for cement clinker and flat glass is strictly prohibited, and any new or modified projects must develop capacity replacement plans [1] - The transfer of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity from non-key air pollution prevention areas to key areas is strictly forbidden [1] - Cement companies are required to formulate capacity replacement plans by the end of 2025 for any capacity exceeding project filings, ensuring alignment between actual and filed capacities [1] Group 2: Environmental and Quality Standards - The plan aims to eliminate outdated production capacities for cement and flat glass through legal and regulatory means, focusing on quality, environmental protection, energy consumption, and safety standards [1] - Enterprises with low environmental performance are encouraged to gradually exit the market [1] Group 3: Industry Transformation Initiatives - The transition of risk warning for photovoltaic glass production capacity from project management to planning guidance is to be accelerated [1] - Leading companies are encouraged to collaborate with social capital to explore the establishment of green low-carbon transformation funds, promoting the exit of inefficient production capacities through market-oriented operations [1]

基本面为锚，关注预期驱动 曹璐 资深分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3013434 投资咨询号：Z0013049 行情回顾 曹璐 化工资深分析师；从业资格号：F3013434；投资咨询号：Z0013049 u 7月份开始，玻璃盘面一度大幅拉涨。"反内卷"引发了市场对玻璃行业落后产能淘汰的猜测，商品市场多 头情绪高涨，玻璃期价表现强势。 u 7月下旬至8月底，随着"反内卷"交易情绪告一段落， "供给侧改革"预期落空，基本面压力下，玻璃盘 面大幅下挫，基本跌回本轮上涨起点。 u 9月以来，玻璃走势再度偏强，在此期间宏观和基本面均较为利多玻璃：一方面反内卷交易仍时有扰动；另 一方面，地产基本面持续走弱，政策存在继续加码预期。此外金九银十旺季背景下，玻璃终端需求存在边 际改善预期。但随着盘面升水现货幅度扩大，加上市场多头情绪降温，9月下半月以来，盘面再度有所回调。 基本面分析——供给端 玻璃期现货价格 全国各主要区域浮法玻璃市场价 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 ...

人民财讯9月24日电，工信部等六部门印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，其中提出， 严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁 从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025 年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能 耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。 加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿 色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快低效产能退出。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部、水利部、农业 农村部印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防 治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置 换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰 水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管 理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快 低效产能退出。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the building materials industry for 2025, highlighting investment opportunities in the fiberglass and cement sectors, while suggesting stock selection in consumer building materials and early-cycle segments [2][3]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has shown signs of recovery, with a narrowing revenue decline and improved profitability in the cement and fiberglass sectors. The overall revenue for sample companies in the first half of 2025 was 277.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, which is a 10.7 percentage point improvement compared to the entire year of 2024. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9% [5][15]. - The cement industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with significant profit improvements. In the first half of 2025, the cement sector achieved a revenue of 118.8 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 1110.5% to 5.4 billion yuan. This recovery is partly due to a low base effect from 2024 and favorable pricing conditions [6][28]. - The fiberglass sector reported robust growth, with sample companies generating a total revenue of 31.1 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 127.0% to 3.29 billion yuan. The recovery in pricing and the growth in specialty fabric business are contributing factors [7][19]. - Consumer building materials showed a smaller revenue decline of 2.7%, with total revenue of 68.76 billion yuan and net profit down 13.2% to 4.35 billion yuan. Companies like Keda Manufacturing and Sankeshu are demonstrating strong alpha characteristics due to their unique market positions [6][7]. - The glass sector remains under pressure, with a revenue decline of 17.0% to 24.6 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 60.3% to 1 billion yuan, primarily due to high base effects and weak demand in the construction sector [5][19]. - Early-cycle industries are still facing challenges, but leading companies like Subote have reported revenue and profit growth by expanding into major engineering projects [8][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Revenue Decline Narrowing, Cement and Fiberglass Perform Well - The building materials industry is categorized into six segments: cement, glass, fiberglass, early-cycle, consumer building materials, and new materials. The overall revenue decline has narrowed, and profitability has improved, particularly in the cement and fiberglass sectors [15][19]. 2. By Industry: Cement and Fiberglass Recovery, Consumer Building Materials Seek Alpha 2.1 Cement: Recovery Certainty Gradually Realized - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery with improved profitability. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue of 118.8 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.4 billion yuan, up 1110.5% [28][34]. 2.2 Fiberglass: Profitability Out of Undervaluation, Steady Recovery Expected - The fiberglass sector has shown significant growth, with a total revenue of 31.1 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 127.0% [7][19]. 2.3 Consumer Building Materials: Revenue Stabilizing, Some Companies Show Profit Alpha - The consumer building materials segment experienced a revenue decline of 2.7%, totaling 68.76 billion yuan, with net profit down 13.2% to 4.35 billion yuan. Certain companies are demonstrating strong alpha characteristics [6][7]. 2.4 Glass: Photovoltaic Glass Phase Improvement, Building Glass Still Under Pressure - The glass industry is under pressure, with a revenue decline of 17.0% to 24.6 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 60.3% to 1 billion yuan [5][19]. 2.5 Early Cycle: Overall Pressure, Leading Companies Recover First - Early-cycle industries are still facing challenges, but leading companies like Subote have reported revenue and profit growth by expanding into major engineering projects [8][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The market expectation has weakened, and steel prices are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand contradiction in the glass and soda ash markets still exists, and their prices are oscillating weakly. The macro - sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened, and their prices are oscillating and consolidating [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated downward with active trading. The main 2601 contract dropped 2.39% at the close. In the spot market, downstream buyers were cautious and mainly replenished stocks before the holiday [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream stock replenishment, with limited change in rigid demand. The significant premium in the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases and reduces factory inventories. The glass futures price is easily influenced by news, but the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the performance of peak - season demand [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated downward with active trading. The main 2601 contract dropped 2.6% at the close. In the spot market, downstream trading sentiment cooled, and buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments before the holiday [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market still exists. With the ignition of Phase II of Yuanxing, the future supply pressure will further increase. Attention should be paid to whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Currently, the premium in the soda ash futures market suppresses the price. Later, focus on the progress of new - capacity production and inventory changes [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: After various meetings ended, the macro - sentiment declined, and the black - commodity market corrected. The silicomanganese futures continued to oscillate and consolidate. Yesterday, the main silicomanganese futures contract closed at 5,882 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. Factory operation sentiment was okay, but market trading sentiment was cautious. The price in the northern 6517 market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, the silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while the hot - metal production slightly increased. The downstream demand for silicomanganese remained resilient, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises increased. In the long run, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is still relatively loose. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will fluctuate with the sector. Later, pay attention to regional policies and electricity - price changes [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,698 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the sentiment in the ferrosilicon market was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, the ferrosilicon production remained flat, the demand declined, and the factory inventory decreased month - on - month. Currently, the supply - demand of the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, the profit of ferrosilicon is still restricted. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will fluctuate with the sector. Later, pay attention to regional policies and electricity - price changes [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International indicates a recovery in traditional industry prices since September, with the sustainability of this upward trend impacting investment strategies. The renewable energy sector shows a more sustained recovery due to stronger downstream demand [1] Traditional Industry Summary - In the past two weeks, cement prices in East China have increased by 6 CNY/ton to 428 CNY/ton [1] - In Southwest China, cement prices have risen by 36 CNY/ton since the second week of August, reaching 479 CNY/ton [1] - Steel prices have also improved, with the rebar price index moving into positive territory, increasing by 23 CNY/ton to 3312.2 CNY/ton [1] - Float glass prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, up by 13 CNY/ton to 1163 CNY/ton [1] - Coking coal and coke prices have been on an upward trend since Q3 2025, with coking coal prices increasing by 268 CNY/ton to 1452 CNY/ton and the coke price index rising by 236 CNY/ton [1] Renewable Energy Industry Summary - The comprehensive price index for photovoltaic products has increased by 3.29% since mid-July, reaching 15.2% [1] - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon has reversed its downward trend, rising by 55% to 6.54 USD/kg as of last week [1] - Domestic polysilicon prices have increased by 41.1% to 6.9 USD/kg [1] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen by 20.5% to 72,400 CNY/ton [1]

2023年起，玻璃行业陷入"价格跌、库存高、利润薄"的困境。在基差走弱、波动率加大的市场环境下， 传统经营模式难以应对"低估值+现货亏损"的双重压力。在前期的市场走访中，期货日报记者了解 到，"期货+期权"组合策略成为众多玻璃企业破局的关键。 产业下行周期： 传统套保陷多重困境 调研中，玻璃市场人士武延民向记者反映，玻璃行业产能错配与需求不足双重压力叠加，行业竞争加 剧。 这份对行业困境的感知，在河北正大玻璃有限公司（下称正大玻璃）期货部负责人崔彰那里也得到了验 证。"2024年玻璃行业景气度持续下行，价格与利润双降，库存却大幅增加；2025年预计供应同比下降 7%，但需求将随房地产竣工周期下行持续下滑。更关键的是，玻璃原片生产受窑炉特性与寿命限制， 供应端存在刚性，企业不愿放弃产能指标的心态加剧了产能过剩。"崔彰称。 武延民提到，在产业下行的特殊环境中，当企业已陷入亏损、玻璃现货价格屡创新低时，企业普遍顾 虑"价格是否已触底"，担心套保后行情反弹（不仅未能规避风险，反而错失后续盈利机会），导致套保 决策陷入犹豫。 河北望美实业期货部负责人霍东凯也表示，当前下行周期中，"不套保，现货价格下跌将直接冲击利 润； ...