Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, but it may not prevent a restart of rate cuts. Trump has extended the China - US tariff truce for 90 days. - Fundamentally, it's approaching the traditional peak season. Spot premiums are strong, and domestic social inventories are decreasing. "Tight mine supply + resilient demand" supports copper prices. - In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. Weak economic expectations will cap copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is limited. It will likely fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500, depending on US economic data [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure with prices falling. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the market will be slightly oversupplied. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic production capacity is stable, but demand is weak. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, demand weakness, and macro - level disturbances, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market followed the decline of aluminum prices. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is affected by the off - season. The market will remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price ranging from 19,600 - 20,400 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and restart, but the growth rate of mine production is lower than expected. The supply of zinc concentrate is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and production has increased significantly. - Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the primary processing industries' operating rates are at seasonal lows. Low inventory provides price support. In the future, the current fundamentals are not sufficient to boost a continuous rise in zinc prices, and it will likely fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and due to the off - season in the electronics industry. - Affected by the US PPI data, the market expects a delay in interest - rate cuts, and the dollar is strengthening, suppressing tin prices. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price will likely remain high and fluctuate [11]. Nickel - The macro - level shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of nickel iron has increased but still faces over - supply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is low. - Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory has increased. The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 in the short - term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - level expectation has strengthened. - The price of nickel iron is rising steadily, and steel mills' profits have improved, increasing production motivation. However, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The price will likely fluctuate strongly in the range of 12,800 - 13,500 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong. There are supply - side uncertainties, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. - Demand is expected to increase as it approaches the peak season, but the actual demand has not been significantly boosted due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain. - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, ranging from 86,000 - 92,000. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended, and light - position long - entry on dips can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,280 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The premium increased by 45 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 7.74% to 1,014 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 184.22 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%. Imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. - The copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic - copper rod production increased by 1.75 percentage points to 70.61% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 0.77% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed mixed trends. - The import profit increased to 57.1 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. - The operating rates of various aluminum - processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% to 60.70 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions, with a 0.49% decrease in the southwest region. - The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with the 2511 - 2512 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% and 4.31% respectively. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 20.21%, and exports increased by 6.61%. - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 3.02%, and the weekly social inventory increased by 2.03% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell by 0.67% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 234.81 yuan/ton to - 1,791 yuan/ton. - The monthly spread of some contracts decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. In June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97%, and exports were 0.19 million tons, up 33.24%. - The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at seasonal lows, and the global inventory level was low [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.30% to 266,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 280.00% to 63.00 US dollars/ton. - The import loss increased by 7.60% to - 17,389.53 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94%. - The operating rates of refined tin and solder production decreased. The SHEF inventory decreased by 0.17% to 7,792 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.12% to 121,650 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 4.25% to - 1,766 yuan/ton. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased slightly to 926 yuan/ni point [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04%. Imports increased by 116.90% in June. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 210,414 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.11% to 23,051 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coil in Wuxi rose by 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts decreased. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained stable [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% in July. Imports decreased by 12.48%, and exports decreased by 10.63%. - The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose by 2.30% to 84,600 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed. - The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate increased by 4.04% to 978 US dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. - In June, imports decreased by 16.31%, and exports increased by 49.84%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, and the overall direction is to go long on dips, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [7]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends and investment opportunities [10][11][12] etc. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - News: Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market, A - share market value exceeds 100 trillion yuan, some companies may apply for suspension, and there is a peak in online consultations at securities brokerages [2]. - Futures basis ratio: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods. The market may be volatile in the short - term but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. There are events such as the stock market reaching a 10 - year high, treasury cash management deposit bidding, and international meetings [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices show different trends. Geopolitical risks and Fed's policy are important factors affecting prices. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech and then make decisions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices are oscillating due to factors such as the rebound of the US dollar index and increased domestic inventory. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for macro - drivers [10]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices are falling due to the expansion of the US steel - aluminum tax scope and domestic inventory accumulation. The price may be adjusted in the short - term [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices face a large downward risk due to factors such as increased domestic social inventory and weak downstream consumption [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry and the increase in social inventory [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices are under pressure to correct in the short - term but have support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on significant dips [15]. Tin - Market: Tin prices are expected to oscillate as supply is tight in the short - term and demand is weak, but the situation may change with the resumption of production in Myanmar [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Lithium prices are likely to rise due to the approaching traditional peak season and improved supply - demand expectations. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies due to the over - capacity situation [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term due to factors such as price resistance and weak demand [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market: Casting aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The demand for rebar is weak and the inventory is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is improving but the inventory is still rising. The market may return to the supply - demand logic if the demand cannot be repaired [23][24]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices are slightly adjusted. The supply is increasing and the demand is slightly rising, but the terminal demand is weakening [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price may rise if there are real estate policies, otherwise, supply contraction is needed [27][28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may weaken in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand [33][34]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely. The increase in warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of capacity integration are new concerns [35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Rubber prices are oscillating. The market has different views on the rise and fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [37][39]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil has the potential to rise but the upward space is limited in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40]. Methanol - Market: Methanol supply pressure is large, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Market: Urea supply is loose, demand is general, and the price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [42]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices may rise with the cost side due to factors such as the repair of BZN spread and the reduction of port inventory [43]. PVC - Market: PVC has a strong supply - weak demand and high - valuation situation. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the short - term valuation may decline [46]. PTA - Market: PTA is expected to accumulate inventory, and the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the peak season [47]. Para - xylene - Market: PX is expected to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support below but limited upward space. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices may follow crude oil to oscillate strongly in July under the background of weak supply - demand [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices are stable. The market may oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the medium - term [53]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply is large, and the price may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: Soybean meal prices are affected by factors such as US soybean production and import costs. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [55][56]. Fats and Oils - Market: Fats and oils prices are oscillating strongly. The price is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the low inventory in Southeast Asia, but the upward space is limited [57][58]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices are expected to decline due to the increase in international and domestic supply [59]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to factors such as the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs, but the downstream consumption is general [60].

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract closing at 78,950. The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday evening. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply is still tight, making the spot premium of Shanghai copper firm. The import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. It is expected that the import supply will increase in the future. On Monday, the social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is also rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in the domestic and foreign markets continues to support the copper price. Reiterate the support level of 78,000 for Shanghai copper, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 due to the lack of obvious bullish factors in the short term [10]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly downwards, and the main contract closed at 78,950. The impact of the Trump - Putin talks on market sentiment was limited. The spot copper price rose 100 to 79,280, and the spot premium rose 45 to 225. The domestic supply shortage made the spot premium firm, and the import profit of spot copper expanded to 330. The LME0 - 3C structure expanded to 92. It is expected that the import supply will increase. The social inventory increased by 0.81 million tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, with both imported and domestic supplies increasing. The demand is rising as the off - peak and peak seasons change, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation space this week is limited. The LME inventory decreased by 200 tons on Monday. The low - inventory pattern in both domestic and foreign markets supports the copper price. The support level for Shanghai copper is 78,000, and the upper pressure level is 80,000 [10]. 2. Industry News - On August 17, Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 76.079 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.441 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.94% [11]. - Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, the transportation vehicles in the surrounding areas of North China will be strictly controlled, which affects the supply and boosts the spot premium of electrolytic copper in the local area [11]. - In July 2025, China's export volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 190,796 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 934,046 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In July, China's import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [11].

Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

Group 1 - BHP's annual profit decreased by 26% due to weak demand, particularly for iron ore and coking coal, with a basic distributable profit of $10.2 billion, aligning with analyst expectations [1] - Revenue dropped by $4.4 billion over the past 12 months, primarily due to falling prices of iron ore and coal, although rising copper prices partially offset this impact [1] - The company raised its net debt range from $5 billion to $15 billion to $10 billion to $20 billion [1] Group 2 - CEO Mike Henry expressed a mixed outlook on the global economic landscape but remains confident in the long-term fundamentals for steelmaking materials, copper, and fertilizers [1] - BHP's copper business saw growth during this period, becoming a key growth area as demand is expected to surge with global electrification and decarbonization efforts [1] - The ongoing real estate crisis has led to an oversupply of steel, negatively impacting iron ore demand and limiting price increases for coking coal [1] Group 3 - BHP indicated that the external operating environment for fiscal year 2025 is influenced by complex and evolving global conditions, with increased policy uncertainty affecting investment and trade flows [2]

Group 1 - The latest "Newspoll" survey indicates that 42% of Australians view US tariffs as their primary concern, surpassing the 37% who worry about the "Chinese military threat" [1] - There is a notable partisan divide in concerns, with 55% of Labor Party supporters and 60% of Green Party supporters identifying US tariffs as the main threat, while half of Coalition Party supporters are more concerned about the "Chinese threat" [1] - The Labor Party's support has increased to 56%, leading the Coalition Party at 44%, following Prime Minister Albanese's visit to China in July [1] Group 2 - Australia faces immediate economic challenges due to US tariffs, with a baseline tariff of 10% on all Australian exports to the US, and specific tariffs on key industries such as 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper, and up to 250% on pharmaceuticals [2] - The Australian economy, heavily reliant on global free trade, is at risk due to potential increases in baseline tariffs to 15%-20%, which would diminish the competitiveness of Australian products in the US market [4] - The US pharmaceutical industry has criticized Australia's drug pricing and subsidy system, claiming it undervalues US innovation, while the Australian government has stated it will not compromise its public healthcare system to avoid tariffs [4]

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report: Loose Liquidity and Risk Appetite Resonance, A-shares Expected to Reach New Highs" [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2025, under the impact of Trump's domestic and foreign policies, global major asset fluctuations intensified. Stocks performed the best, followed by bonds. Commodities were divided, with externally-driven varieties outperforming domestic-demand products. The currencies of the G2 countries were under pressure, with both the US dollar and the RMB weakening [2][3][8] - In the domestic market, equities (+5.83%) > bonds (+0.87%) > commodities (-2.09%) > RMB (-6.03%). A-shares' performance was centered around China's AI breakthroughs and Trump's tariff disruptions. AI利好 catalyzed the technology and growth sectors to lead in stages, boosting risk appetite. Tariff uncertainties dragged down the export chain, suppressing the valuation repair of the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Bonds mainly fluctuated based on tight liquidity, tariff-induced risk aversion, and their gains significantly converged compared to 2024. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar and depreciated against non-US currencies. Commodities were divided, with precious metals shining and domestic-demand commodities such as black metals and industrial products remaining weak [3][8] - In the overseas market, bonds (+7.27%) > equities (+6.07%) > commodities (+5.96%) > US dollar (-10.79%). In the first half of the year, global risk appetite fluctuated significantly. Trump's tariff policies once triggered a sharp market shock, but the recession remained at the expected level. Global stock markets quickly recovered after a sharp decline, with the Hong Kong, German, and South Korean stock markets rising by over 20%. Global bonds generally rose, led by emerging markets and US bonds, while European bonds were weaker. Commodities generally rose slightly, led by livestock and oils, with metals and industrial raw materials having moderate increases. The US dollar index fell by over 10%, dragged down by cooling soft data, tariff impacts on credit, and doubts about the Fed's independence [3][8] - Looking ahead, A-shares are expected to reach new highs due to the continuation of loose global central bank liquidity and the approaching of the profit bottom. In the bond market, treasury bond yields may decline further but with weak odds. Gold prices are bullish in the medium to long term, supported by global loose liquidity, geopolitical risks, and anti-globalization. Copper prices are expected to rise as the global economy is expected to recover and the supply of concentrates is expected to tighten. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the second half of the year due to oversupply and weak demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Performance - In the first half of 2025, under the impact of Trump's domestic and foreign policies, global major asset fluctuations intensified. Stocks performed the best, followed by bonds. Commodities were divided, with externally-driven varieties outperforming domestic-demand products. The currencies of the G2 countries were under pressure, with both the US dollar and the RMB weakening [8] - In the domestic market, equities (+5.83%) > bonds (+0.87%) > commodities (-2.09%) > RMB (-6.03%). A-shares' performance was centered around China's AI breakthroughs and Trump's tariff disruptions. AI利好 catalyzed the technology and growth sectors to lead in stages, boosting risk appetite. Tariff uncertainties dragged down the export chain, suppressing the valuation repair of the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Bonds mainly fluctuated based on tight liquidity, tariff-induced risk aversion, and their gains significantly converged compared to 2024. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar and depreciated against non-US currencies. Commodities were divided, with precious metals shining and domestic-demand commodities such as black metals and industrial products remaining weak [8] - In the overseas market, bonds (+7.27%) > equities (+6.07%) > commodities (+5.96%) > US dollar (-10.79%). In the first half of the year, global risk appetite fluctuated significantly. Trump's tariff policies once triggered a sharp market shock, but the recession remained at the expected level. Global stock markets quickly recovered after a sharp decline, with the Hong Kong, German, and South Korean stock markets rising by over 20%. Global bonds generally rose, led by emerging markets and US bonds, while European bonds were weaker. Commodities generally rose slightly, led by livestock and oils, with metals and industrial raw materials having moderate increases. The US dollar index fell by over 10%, dragged down by cooling soft data, tariff impacts on credit, and doubts about the Fed's independence [8] 2. Equity Market 2.1 A-shares - In the first half of 2025, A-shares performed well, with broad-based indices generally rising. The Beizheng 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 led the gains, showing a significant structural market. The performance of large-cap blue-chip indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 was relatively limited. Overall, the market fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year, and risk appetite fluctuated between "China's AI narrative" and "Trump's tariffs." The market generally trended upward, with a decent profit-making effect. The market can be roughly divided into four stages [13] - Stage 1 (January 1 - January 13): The market declined weakly due to a lack of economic data, weakening policy effects from the fourth quarter of 2024, and rising overseas uncertainties ahead of Trump's inauguration. During this period, most indices adjusted, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline and the growth sector performing weakly [16] - Stage 2 (January 14 - March 18): The market rose significantly as the strong expectations for China's AI industry outweighed the weak economic reality. The market's pessimistic sentiment was significantly repaired after the China-US presidential call in mid-January, and risk appetite recovered. The popularity of DeepSeek in late January triggered strong expectations for China's AI innovation, becoming the core driver of the market. The "strong expectations" for China's AI industry outweighed concerns about Trump's tariffs and the "weak reality" of economic data, driving the market's trading volume to an average of 1.8 trillion yuan and the margin trading balance to a 10-year high of 1.9 trillion yuan. During this period, most indices rose, with small-cap growth stocks such as the Beizheng 50 and CSI 2000 leading the gains [17] - Stage 3 (March 19 - April 7): Risk appetite declined as the market shifted from strong industry expectations to economic reality. The market's expectations for a Q1 reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut were disappointed, and the liquidity remained tight until the end of March. The 10-year treasury bond yield rose, and overseas liquidity tightened marginally, putting pressure on valuations. The market's trading volume declined. On April 7, Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" far exceeded market expectations, triggering a global risk-off sentiment. The A-share market tumbled after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by more than 7% and thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down [18][19] - Stage 4 (April 8 - June 30): The market gradually recovered as policy support and a stabilization of global risk appetite boosted investor confidence. Trump's decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days helped to stabilize global risk appetite. In response to the US tariffs, the Chinese government quickly introduced a series of policies to support the economy and counter the US measures. The central bank injected liquidity through a stabilization fund, helping to restore market confidence. The market entered a structural recovery phase with strong support at the bottom [19] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, A-shares still have upward momentum. On the earnings side, policy support is expected to improve the economic fundamentals, and the "earnings bottom" is approaching. On the valuation side, loose monetary policies at home and abroad are expected to continue, providing support for equity valuations. Policy support is expected to strengthen market expectations, and the A-share market is expected to reach new highs this year, breaking through the high set on September 24 last year. The market's performance will depend on the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the recovery of domestic risk appetite [20][21][22] 3. Bond Market 3.1 Treasury Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the bond market entered an adjustment phase after a unilateral upward trend at the end of 2024. The market's pricing of the weak domestic economic momentum became more comprehensive, and tight liquidity, tariff policies, and the recovery of risk appetite became the core variables driving interest rate fluctuations. The bond market can be roughly divided into three stages [27] - Stage 1 (January 1 - March 19): Interest rates rose as the market's expectations for loose monetary policies were revised, liquidity tightened, and the stock market strengthened. In early 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yield quickly fell below 1.6% due to the continued impact of loose policy expectations at the end of 2024. Subsequently, tight liquidity, disappointed expectations for a Q1 RRR cut and interest rate cut, and the recovery of risk appetite driven by the revaluation of technology stocks led to a rebound in interest rates. The yield curve showed a "bear flattening" trend. By mid-March, the 10-year treasury bond yield approached 1.9%, reaching a new high for the year [30] - Stage 2 (March 20 - April 7): Interest rates declined as the central bank shifted its focus to supporting the economy, risk aversion increased due to Trump's tariff policies, and regulatory guidance was introduced. As economic data weakened and external risks increased, the central bank shifted its policy focus from "risk prevention" to "growth stabilization." The tight liquidity in the first quarter gradually eased, and the equity market entered an adjustment phase. The 10-year treasury bond yield declined to 1.8%. In early April, Trump's tariff policies far exceeded market expectations, triggering a global stock market crash. Risk aversion drove funds into the bond market, and the 10-year treasury bond yield dropped to 1.6% [30] - Stage 3 (April 8 - June 30): Interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range as the market balanced the recovery of risk appetite, the implementation of loose monetary policies, and the increase in bond supply. In the second quarter, the bond market generally fluctuated within a narrow range as the market weighed the recovery of risk appetite, RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the supply of government bonds. The market mainly focused on two factors: 1) The China-US trade talks in Geneva reached an unexpected consensus, boosting market sentiment. The resilience of exports in the second quarter also provided some support for the economy and put pressure on the bond market. 2) The central bank announced RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in early May, leading to a marginal easing of liquidity. Despite the large supply of government bonds, the central bank's open market operations showed a strong intention to support liquidity, providing some support for interest rates [31] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, treasury bond yields may break through their previous lows, but the odds are weak. The economic fundamentals have not reversed, and the bond market is still likely to benefit from loose monetary policies. However, the recovery of risk appetite and the increasing attractiveness of risk assets may limit the downside potential of bond yields. The bond market may face some challenges in the second half of the year, including a potential increase in inflation expectations and the uncertainty of Trump's domestic and foreign policies [32][34][35] 4. Commodity Market 4.1 Gold - In the first half of 2025, the gold price continued its upward trend from last year, rising by more than 25%. The price increase was mainly driven by the risk aversion sentiment triggered by Trump's policies, increasing recession expectations, and doubts about the US dollar's credit. The gold market can be roughly divided into three stages [43] - Stage 1 (January 1 - April 2): The gold price rose as Trump's inauguration increased trade tensions, and weak US economic data and rising recession expectations drove investors to seek safe-haven assets. The US dollar index and the US treasury bond yield declined, and central banks around the world continued to increase their gold reserves, driving the gold price higher. During this period, the gold price trended upward [44][47] - Stage 2 (April 3 - April 21): The gold price reached a new high as Trump's tariff policies triggered a global risk-off sentiment and a crisis of confidence in the US dollar. The global market was shocked by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," which far exceeded market expectations. The initial sell-off of gold due to liquidity shortages and panic was quickly reversed as investors sought the safe-haven properties of gold. The gold price reached a record high of over $3,500 per ounce on April 22 [47] - Stage 3 (April 22 - June 30): The gold price fluctuated within a narrow range as the market's risk appetite recovered, and geopolitical risks increased. The US government's decision to ease its tariff policies and the strong US economic data put pressure on the gold price. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided some support for the gold price. During this period, the gold price fluctuated between $3,175 and $3,450 per ounce [48] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold price is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by loose global liquidity, rising geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of anti-globalization. However, the narrowing of macro uncertainties and the increasing odds of a price correction may limit the upside potential of the gold price. The gold market may face some challenges in the second half of the year, including the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [49] 4.2 Copper - In the first half of 2025, the copper price generally trended upward, with a brief correction in April due to Trump's tariff policies. The copper market can be roughly divided into three stages [51] - Stage 1 (January 1 - March 26): The copper price rose as the global manufacturing sector recovered, and the expectation of fiscal expansion in China and Europe supported the copper demand. The supply of copper concentrates tightened, and the spot treatment charge (TC) price reached a record low, putting upward pressure on the copper price. The expectation of copper tariffs and the US government's investigation into copper imports also contributed to the increase in the copper price [53] - Stage 2 (March 27 - April 9): The copper price declined as Trump's tariff policies triggered a global risk-off sentiment, and the demand for copper decreased. The copper price dropped by more than 20% in a short period, reaching its lowest level of the year [53] - Stage 3 (April 10 - June 30): The copper price recovered as the market's risk appetite improved, and the supply of copper concentrates continued to tighten. The decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs and the weakening of the US dollar supported the copper price. The supply-demand balance of the copper market remained tight, and the spot TC price continued to trade below $40 per ton, providing strong support for the copper price [54] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the copper price is expected to be supported by loose global monetary and fiscal policies and the tightening of the copper concentrate supply. The global central banks are still in the process of cutting interest rates, and the fiscal expansion plans of China, the US, and Europe are expected to boost the copper demand. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to remain tight, and the spot TC price is expected to stay at a low level, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price is expected to trend upward in the second half of the year [54][55] 4.3 Crude Oil - In the first half of 2025, the crude oil price fluctuated significantly, mainly driven by geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff policies. The supply-demand imbalance in the crude oil market put downward pressure on the oil price. The crude oil market can be roughly divided into five stages [59] - Stage 1 (January 1 - January 15): The oil price reached a new high for the year as the US government's sanctions on Russian oil and the tense situation in the Middle East increased the market's concerns about supply disruptions. The OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their commitment to the production cut agreement, and the cold weather in the US and Europe increased the demand for heating oil. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price approached $80 per barrel [61] - Stage 2 (January 16 - March 10): The oil price declined as the market's concerns about the supply-demand imbalance increased, and the weak US economic data and Trump's tariff policies put pressure on the oil price. The OPEC+ countries postponed their planned production increase until April, but the increasing production from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada deepened the oversupply situation. The demand for oil was also weak due to the weak global economic growth and the increasing trade tensions. The oil price dropped by 16% from its high to around $65 per barrel [61] - Stage 3 (March 11 - March 31): The oil price fluctuated within a narrow range as the market balanced the expectation of an increase in oil supply and the recovery of the oil demand in Asia. The OPEC+ countries confirmed their plan to gradually exit the production cut agreement in April, and the increasing US crude oil inventory put pressure on the oil price. However, the strong economic data from China and the expectation of policy stimulus increased the demand for oil in Asia, providing some support for the oil price [62] - Stage 4 (April 1 - May 5): The oil price dropped sharply as the market's concerns about the supply-demand imbalance increased, and the weak global economic data and Trump's tariff policies put pressure on the oil price. The OPEC+ countries prematurely lifted some of the voluntary production cuts, and the increasing production from non-OPEC