Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

Economic Performance - In May, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.9% and down from 6.1% in the previous month[5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 5.0% and up from 5.1% in April[5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to May rose by 3.7%, below the expected 3.9% and down from 4.0% in the previous month[5] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, down from 5.1% in the previous month[5] Industrial Production - The decline in industrial production growth is attributed to external factors, with a notable drop in export delivery values, which fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%[9] - Domestic demand has provided support to industrial production, with the equipment manufacturing sector's added value growing by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production[13] Consumer Spending - The growth in retail sales was driven by several factors, including ongoing consumption promotion policies and the early start of e-commerce sales events[19] - Key categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw retail sales increase by 53% and 33% respectively, contributing 1.9 percentage points to total retail sales growth[19] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 7.8% year-on-year in May, despite a decline from the previous month[25] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 5.6% from January to May, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[29] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate has shown a marginal improvement, remaining at 5.0% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable employment situation[37] - However, structural pressures in the labor market persist, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers rising to 5.0%[37]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Domestic demand is effectively supporting industrial production as external demand gradually declines, with export growth rates of 8.1% and 4.8% in April and May respectively[9] - The government issued a net financing of 6.3 trillion yuan in bonds in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting economic stability[9] Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment growth rate decreased from 10.9% to 10.4% in the first five months, still above the 2024 annual target of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth is at 8.5%, slightly down from the previous month, with equipment investment growing at 17.3%[2] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, with housing starts down 22.8% and sales area down 2.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market challenges[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, contributing an estimated 3 trillion yuan in sales in May alone[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 53% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies[3] Financial Support - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan in May, exceeding expectations and last year's figures, indicating strong financial support for the economy[3] - M2 money supply growth remained high at 7.9%, while social financing balance growth was at 8.7%[3] - There is still over 900 billion yuan of issuance space for special government bonds aimed at stabilizing growth, which will continue to support the "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives[3]

Consumption - The "trade-in" program continues to show effectiveness, with subsidy fund progress estimated at approximately 42% for May[3] - Retail sales in May increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The contribution breakdown of retail sales shows that major categories like home appliances and communication equipment contributed 0.27 and 0.20 percentage points respectively[3] Production - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, despite a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[5] - The supply-demand structure remains poor, with the industrial enterprise production-sales rate at 95.3%, the lowest level for the same period in history[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.7% in May, indicating a worsening trend[6] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily affected by sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery[6] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain high growth, with special bond issuance progress at 39.0% as of June 15[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in policy and a possible recession in the U.S. economy[7]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, indicating that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [1]. - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline, with the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities falling month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowing [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - In May, the national industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all fell month - on - month, with the decline in third - tier cities widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have continued to rebound [2]. - Black commodities: All black commodities have recently declined in the short term [2]. 3.2.2. Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate has recently rebounded [3]. - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate has continued to rise recently [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near - three - year low [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the chemical industry decreased from 52.63 last week to 49.66 this week, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical industry decreased from 61.31 last week to 58.32 this week [50]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries have different price trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 7.37% year - on - year, while the spot price of zinc decreased by 1.91% year - on - year [51].

Economic Data Overview - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in April; retail sales grew by 6.4%, up from 5.1% in April; fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, down from 4.0% in April [1][7] - The economic data indicates a mild recovery with notable differentiation across sectors, characterized by strong consumption, stable production, and sluggish investment [1][7] Consumption Insights - Retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, the highest growth rate since 2024 [12][14] - Durable goods consumption surged significantly, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales soaring by 53.0% year-on-year, a record monthly growth [14] - The "old-for-new" policy and early promotions for the "618" shopping festival have stimulated consumer spending, but future consumption momentum may weaken as policy benefits diminish [17][12] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, while maintaining a month-on-month growth of 0.6% [18][21] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.8 percentage points [21][18] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with manufacturing investment at 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, indicating resilience [24][27] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 10.7%, reflecting a significant drop in sales area and sales volume [28][29] Policy Impact - The central bank has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, implementing measures such as a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to support economic recovery [7][8] - Active fiscal policies are also in place, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds, including 300 billion yuan to support the "old-for-new" consumption initiative [8][7]