| 铅锌日评20250704：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,000.00 0.44% | | | | | | | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,245.00 0.41% | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -245.00 5.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -35.00 - | | | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -26.47 0.30 | | | | | | | | | | | -64.00 -5.10 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 10.00 40.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -3 ...

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250703申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | 幅波动 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 锌价上方持续受到供给压力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-18.75 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22290元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于105元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日持平于22250元/吨。SMM广东 锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至65元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22220元/吨。 SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于35元/吨。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 期货方面：2025-07-02沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22230元/吨，较前一交易日下跌25元/吨，全天交易日成 交128020手，较前一交易日减少50663手，全天交易日持仓129763手，较前一交易日减少4670手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22310元/吨，最低点达到22145元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止20 ...

金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资 ...

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 | | 20250702申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | ...

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-7-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收跌 0.56%至 17108 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 8.36 万手。截至周二下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 7 至 2041 美元/吨，总持仓 15.09 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16925 元/吨，再生精铅 均价 16875 元/吨，精废价差 50 元/吨，废电动车电池均价 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group, is undergoing a strategic transformation from traditional non-ferrous metallurgy to high-end lithium battery copper foil production, marking a significant shift towards new materials [1][2]. Group 1: Company Transformation - The copper foil production line at Yuguang Group produces ultra-thin copper foil with a thickness of only 4 micrometers, which is considered a hallmark of the company's transition to high-end materials [1]. - The company has evolved from a traditional smelting factory to a high-end lithium battery copper foil producer and supplier of high-purity metal new materials [1]. - The cleanroom environment in the copper foil production facility is maintained at a cleanliness level of 10,000, highlighting the company's commitment to quality [1]. Group 2: New Materials Development - Yuguang Group has established a new materials industry chain focused on high-purity metals, lead-zinc alloys, new energy materials, and rare metals, with over 260 types of lead-zinc alloy products and an annual output of nearly 300,000 tons [2]. - The company has achieved industry-leading standards with its 7N ultra-pure tellurium and 7N high-purity cadmium, showcasing its technological advancements [2]. - The company aims to accelerate its transformation into a new materials powerhouse, with plans for projects in copper, recycled lead, and a new materials research center, potentially reaching a revenue scale of 100 billion yuan [2].

| | 20250701申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Foreign Exchange Administration's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region branch is actively promoting financial openness towards ASEAN, enhancing cross-border trade and investment, and facilitating high-quality economic development in the region. Group 1: Financial Openness and Trade Growth - From January to April 2025, Guangxi's foreign-related income and expenditure reached $22.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The goods trade income and expenditure amounted to $18.72 billion, growing by 21.5% year-on-year [1] - Guangxi's goods trade with ASEAN reached $2.42 billion, with an 11.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining ASEAN as Guangxi's largest trading partner for 25 consecutive years [1] - The proportion of cross-border funds from ASEAN in Guangxi's total has increased from 23% to 28% over the past three years [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Investment Initiatives - Guangxi is pushing for more high-level open pilot projects for cross-border trade and investment, including the expansion of the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot to the entire region [2] - As of April 2025, registered capital for QFLP pilot enterprises reached $3.377 billion, injecting significant vitality into the regional economy [2] - Guangxi has been approved for a new pilot policy for cross-border trade agency payment, enhancing support for border residents engaging in trade with ASEAN [2] Group 3: Streamlining Foreign Exchange Operations - The Guangxi branch has introduced nearly 30 measures to improve the convenience of cross-border trade and investment financing [3] - Key measures include delegating registration tasks to banks and allowing online processing for various foreign debt registrations [3] - By April 2025, 1,400 entities benefited from these measures, involving $27.61 billion, while over 6,600 capital project digital transactions amounted to $10.454 billion [3] Group 4: Case Studies of Trade Facilitation - A copper company in Guangxi, as a pilot enterprise for trade foreign exchange facilitation, processed 61 transactions worth $170 million, significantly reducing time and costs for payment processing [4] - An automotive group successfully completed a cross-border payment within 48 hours for an urgent software procurement, achieving an 85% speed increase compared to conventional processes [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of zinc remains high, with a 7.2% year - on - year increase in supply in June and an expected output of 590,000 tons in July. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly. The negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. After the absolute price rises, the spot market trading becomes colder, and the spot premium drops rapidly. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$0.24/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 35 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 60 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 70 yuan/ton to 22,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,924 lots, a decrease of 64,900 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 140,186 lots, a decrease of 2,242 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,330 - 22,530 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The spot market premium continues to decline. The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The social inventory has increased slightly, the finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has begun to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has further increased, so the supply pressure remains. After the absolute price rises, the spot market trading becomes colder, and the spot premium drops rapidly. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]