Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February 2026, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.3% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in January 2026[13] - Food prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI increase[14] - Service prices increased by 1.6%, expanding by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting CPI by about 0.75 percentage points[16] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in February 2026, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Month-on-month, the PPI rose by 0.4%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month, marking five consecutive months of increase[21] - Key industries such as black metal mining, pharmaceuticals, and food processing saw price increases, while coal and oil extraction prices improved[23] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The CPI's rise is attributed to the Spring Festival effect and a low base from the previous year, with expectations of a price drop post-festival in March[31] - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price increases[32] - Future policies are anticipated to enhance both qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy[32] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in the international financial landscape, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[33]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government has announced measures to exempt diesel import and sales taxes while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil to mitigate inflationary pressures from rising international oil prices and to stabilize the domestic refining industry [3]. Group 1: Tax Measures - The Brazilian government has eliminated both the import and sales tax on diesel, providing subsidies to diesel producers and importers [3]. - A 12% export tax on crude oil has been introduced to offset the costs of diesel subsidies and to stabilize the domestic refining sector [3]. Group 2: Government Rationale - President Lula stated that these measures aim to alleviate the inflationary pressures caused by significant increases in international oil prices, ensuring that high oil prices do not adversely affect the livelihoods of Brazilian citizens [3]. - The Chief Minister of the Presidential Office, Rui Costa, emphasized the necessity of these measures to encourage crude oil producers to retain their production within Brazil's refining facilities, preventing a higher proportion of crude oil from being sold on the international market [3].

Domestic Macro - The National People's Congress emphasized enhancing macroeconomic regulation effectiveness and allocating more funds to high-quality development areas [1][14] - New measures will be introduced to deepen the reform of the ChiNext board and optimize the refinancing mechanism [1][14] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed initiatives to create new jobs through AI and support labor-intensive industries [1][14] - Domestic fuel prices were adjusted, with gasoline and diesel increasing by 695 RMB and 670 RMB per ton, respectively [1][14] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [1][14] Industrial Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued new regulations on short-term trading, effective from April 7, 2026, including various financial instruments [2][15] - Key work arrangements for the 14th Five-Year Plan were introduced, focusing on urban commuting, multi-modal transport, and agricultural technology [2][15] - A risk warning was issued regarding the OpenClaw application in industrial sectors, highlighting potential security risks [2][15] - A standard contract template for water-saving management projects was released to enhance efficient water resource utilization [2][15] Local Policy - Wuxi aims to develop its commercial aerospace industry into a national-level industrial cluster worth over 100 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][16] - Shanghai's implementation plan for the free trade zone focuses on trade facilitation and cross-border services [3][16] - The Hong Kong Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Securities and Futures Commission launched a joint operation to combat insider trading [3][16] Overseas Dynamics - Iran's interim leadership announced a policy of non-aggression towards neighboring countries unless provoked [3][16] - The International Energy Agency and South Korea took measures to release strategic oil reserves to stabilize energy markets [3][16]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of various futures commodities on March 13, 2026, including their price movements, market trends, and influencing factors [5][6] Commodity Performance Gainers - SC crude oil rose over 5%, rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and asphalt rose over 3%. Caustic soda, alumina, soybeans, and iron ore rose over 2% [5] Losers - Container shipping to Europe fell over 7%, Shanghai silver and tin fell over 4%, platinum and pure benzene fell over 3%, and styrene, 20 - number rubber, lithium carbonate, rubber, palladium, and polysilicon fell over 2% [6] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) fell 0.08%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) fell 0.38%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 1.14%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.11% [6] Bond Futures - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) remained flat, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) remained flat, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.07%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.25% [6] Fund Flows - Inflows: Coking coal 2605 had an inflow of 370 million, methanol 2605 had an inflow of 267 million, and caustic soda 2605 had an inflow of 252 million - Outflows: CSI 2603 had an outflow of 2.605 billion, CSI 1000 2603 had an outflow of 2.575 billion, and Shanghai gold 2604 had an outflow of 1.955 billion [6] Market Analysis Copper - High - opening and low - closing, with an intraday decline. Due to an accident at Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon Mine, all mining operations of Kennecott Utah Copper were suspended. Domestic copper production in March is expected to reach a record high. Although downstream demand is increasing, the market is still affected by the Middle East situation, showing a weak and volatile trend [8] Lithium Carbonate - High - opening and low - closing, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. Supply is in a multi - empty balance, while downstream demand shows a downward trend. Although inventory is being depleted, the depletion rate is narrowing. It shows a range with support at the bottom and suppression at the top [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The US crude oil inventory increase exceeded expectations, but refined oil inventory decreased. The Middle East situation has a significant impact on oil prices, and there is still a risk of price surges [11][12] Asphalt - Supply side: The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%. The expected production in March is 2.187 million tons, a 13.0% increase from the previous month. Demand side: Downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the national shipment volume increased by 12.67%. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow crude oil prices and be strong and volatile [13] PP - The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. The enterprise operating rate is around 75.5%. The supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream has a high - price resistance. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, prices are likely to rise [15] Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to around 87.5%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. New production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices are likely to rise if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation [16][17] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased to 81.35%. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, but inventory pressure is still large. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, prices are likely to rise [18] Coking Coal - High - opening and high - closing, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. Mine production and operating rate are high, but inventory has been significantly depleted. Steel mill demand is recovering slowly. If the Middle East situation cools down, there is an expectation of price correction [19][20] Urea - Low - opening and high - closing, with a weak and volatile trend. The supply side is stable and strong, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. Inventory has been significantly depleted. Downstream industrial demand is starting to pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand [21]

中信资源(01205)发布截至2025年12月31日止年度业绩，该集团取得收入149.65亿港元，同比增加57.6%; 公司普通股股东应占溢利1.71亿港元，同比减少70.2%;每股盈利2.17港仙。 公告称，溢利减少乃主要由于以下因素：本集团原油及煤炭的平均售价同比大幅下降;原材料尤其是 Portland Aluminium Smelter生产所用氧化铝的成本同比大幅上升; 因本集团自2024年7月18日起不再持有 Alumina Limited的任何权益，导致应占联营公司溢利大幅减少;及应占一间主要从事开采、生产及销售 石油以及生产和销售道路沥青及澄清油的合营企业的同比亏损，此乃因合营企业原油平均售价较同比下 跌所致。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is at risk of surging due to frequent news about the Middle - East situation, which greatly disturbs the crude oil price. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the progress of the Middle - East situation and the export of Middle - East crude oil [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production increase plan is undetermined. This is mainly to cope with the sharp decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack. OPEC+ will hold the next meeting on April 5 [1] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the decline in refined oil inventory was large, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventory [1][4] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily crude oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz for many days has led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% of global supply [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month. Although the IEA announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow [1] 2.期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 5.41% to 750.8 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 724.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 778.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,151 to 29,591 lots [2] 3.基本面跟踪 - EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the Brent crude oil price to be $78.84 per barrel in 2026 (previously $57.69 per barrel) and $64.47 per barrel in 2027 (previously $53 per barrel). Affected by the Middle - East conflict, it is expected to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter [3] - In terms of supply and demand, EIA expects global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 107.8 million barrels per day; and global oil demand in 2026 to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast of 104.8 million barrels per day [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.53 million barrels per day, and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 107.87 million barrels per day [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reduced the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [3] - On the evening of March 11, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6 increased by 3.824 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline inventory decreased by 3.654 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 117,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. US crude oil production in the week of March 6 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.678 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.043 million barrels per day, a 4.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.44% to 9.241 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 9.92% to 4.065 million barrels per day, driving the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 6.71% month - on - month [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the oil industry, particularly highlighting companies like China National Petroleum Corporation and CNOOC as key players in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The oil market is influenced by three main attributes: commodity characteristics, geopolitical factors, and financial aspects. The price formation mechanism is complex, with supply and demand, geopolitical events, and dollar interest rates playing significant roles. The report indicates that the oil price has been trending downward in 2023 due to a loosening supply-demand balance [4]. - Supply is heavily concentrated in the Middle East, which holds nearly 60% of global reserves. Major suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia. The report notes that OPEC plays a crucial role in controlling international oil prices through production management [4][5]. - Demand for oil is closely tied to global economic growth, with the U.S., Europe, China, and India being the primary consumers. The report forecasts that by 2024, the demand shares will be 19.7% for the U.S., 15.9% for China, and 13.8% for Europe [5]. - The Strait of Hormuz is highlighted as a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, with potential disruptions leading to significant production cuts in Gulf countries. The report emphasizes that if the Strait remains blocked, the scale of production cuts and the difficulty of resuming production will increase rapidly [5]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical and Financial Impact on Oil Prices - The report discusses how geopolitical tensions and financial factors significantly influence oil prices, with recent conflicts causing rapid price increases. It emphasizes that while short-term fluctuations are common, the long-term price trends are primarily driven by supply-demand fundamentals [21][24]. Oil Supply Situation - The global distribution of oil reserves is uneven, with the Middle East holding a significant portion. The report states that as of 2024, OPEC countries will control 79.2% of global oil reserves, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela being the top three countries [33]. - The U.S. has become the largest oil producer due to the shale oil revolution, but production growth is slowing as companies focus on investment returns rather than volume [36][51]. Oil Demand Situation - The report indicates that oil demand is expected to grow primarily in developing countries, with projections for 2025 showing an increase in global oil demand. The U.S. and China are expected to remain the largest consumers, with significant shifts in consumption patterns due to economic and structural changes [87][93]. - The report also notes that the refining capacity in Europe is declining, while the U.S. maintains a stable demand for refined products, indicating a shift in the global refining landscape [93].

Economic Outlook - The US economy is currently experiencing three significant growth tailwinds: increased AI spending, an industrial renaissance focused on reshoring production, and government spending due to lower corporate and household taxes [1] - Inflation remains a challenge, currently at around 3%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, complicating monetary policy [1] Oil Prices and Inflation - The rise in oil prices from $65 to $100 per barrel is projected to increase headline inflation by 0.7%, creating additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates [1] - The national average price of gasoline has surpassed $3.50 per gallon, potentially posing a political issue for the current administration ahead of midterm elections [1] Global Trade and Energy Supply - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global trade, and its current blockage is affecting the flow of goods, including essential inputs for various industries such as fertilizers and green energy [4][5] - The US, as a net oil exporter, may benefit from rising oil prices, while many other countries, particularly in Europe, are facing increased costs as net oil importers [3][4] - The disruption in LNG supply is particularly concerning for Europe, India, and parts of Asia, which rely heavily on natural gas, potentially leading to depleted reserves and economic risks [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of global crude oil shortage will become more severe due to the long - term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the limited daily release volume of reserve crude oil [4][7][11] - The US economy is sliding towards stagflation, with inflation rising, employment and consumption weakening, while the re - industrialization is accelerating [23][27][37][39][42] - The risk of private credit is spreading to the banking system, and the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, is at high risk [17][20] - Due to the blockage of crude oil transportation, refineries are reducing their loads, and there may be a large - scale shortage of refined chemicals [52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming long - term. Although the IEA is releasing a large amount of strategic oil reserves, the actual daily release is far from meeting the supply gap caused by the blockage [23] - The US private credit crisis is spreading to the traditional banking system, and the firewall of traditional banks is facing a severe test [23] - The Nasdaq futures have broken through the support level. The disruptive substitution of AI and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling of US stocks, which may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [23] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine and shrinking globally, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major global assets [23] - The global economy has passed its peak and is continuously declining due to the US's wrong policies [23] US Economic Indicators - **Inflation**: The US core CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month in February, and the PPI final demand increased by 0.5% month - on - month in January, indicating an upward trend in inflation. The manufacturing and service PMI price indices are expanding, and the US is sliding towards stagflation [27][29][31] - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US is 213,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Non - farm employment decreased by 92,000 in February, and the number of active corporate layoffs is rising [34][37] - **Consumption**: Retail and food sales in the US decreased by 0.1% month - on - month in January, indicating a weakening of overall consumption [39] - **Industry**: The import of capital goods in the US reached a record high in December, and the US re - industrialization is accelerating. The ISM manufacturing PMI and service PMI in the US expanded unexpectedly in February [42][45] International Economic Indicators - In February, the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone slightly expanded, probably driven by the expansion of the military industry [48] - The manufacturing and service PMIs in India remain at a certain level of prosperity [50] Large - scale Asset Allocation - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz makes the interruption of crude oil transportation long - term. Although the total amount of reserve crude oil release is large, the daily release volume is far from meeting the demand, leading to a rapid spread of crude oil shortage [52] - Refineries are forced to reduce their loads, resulting in a decline in the production of aromatics, olefins, PX, PTA, bottle chips, pure benzene, and styrene. The PX - PTA - bottle chip industrial chain is severely affected [52][56][58][61][64] - The US 2 - year Treasury bond is continuously falling, the US dollar index is about to break through 100, private credit risks are spreading to the banking system, and the collapse of the Nasdaq is approaching [52] - The oil price may remain at a high level, and international capital is accelerating its withdrawal from the US. If the Nasdaq falls, the market may sell all assets [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If stagflation arrives, the recommended asset allocation is to hold cash and gold, and wait for opportunities to invest in stocks and bonds. Stocks may decline due to rising costs and recession expectations, while US bonds' yield growth may slow down in the later stage. Commodities may first rise and then fall, with gold being relatively stable. The US dollar index may perform strongly [2][8][15]. - Historically, global stagflation often accompanies high oil prices. Once stagflation forms, stock and bond prices may decline due to rising prices and tight monetary policies. However, the decline this time may be less severe [11][15][28]. - The pricing logic of gold has changed in recent years. New demands from global order changes and government debt over - issuance determine the gold price, so the impact of interest rate hikes on gold is limited [11][30]. - The US dollar may perform well, benefiting from cash - holding demand, interest rate hikes, and rising oil prices [11][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Stagflation History Review - **Relationship between Oil Prices and Stagflation**: Historically, high and long - term oil prices often lead to global stagflation. For example, after the Fourth Middle East War, the Iran - Iraq War, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, stagflation occurred. During the Fourth Middle East War, the oil price rose from $2.7 per barrel before the war to $13 per barrel in early 1974; during the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $33.6 per barrel before the war to $40 per barrel within two months; during the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the oil price rose from over $80 per barrel before the war to over $120 per barrel in June 2022 [11][17][20]. - **Asset Performance after Stagflation**: - **Fourth Middle East War**: Global stocks and bonds fell, while commodities were strong. The US federal funds rate rose, leading to a global economic slowdown. Stocks generally declined, long - term bond yields rose, and most commodities increased, except for copper which declined significantly after the economic slowdown. The US dollar index benefited from rising interest rates [20]. - **Iran - Iraq War**: Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all affected, while the US dollar index was outstanding. Stocks had already declined significantly before the war, so the decline this time was less severe. High inflation dragged down the bond market, and commodity prices fell due to economic recession and high interest rates. The new international monetary system made the gold price worse, while the US dollar index rose [22][23]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all damaged, while the US dollar performed well. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control inflation, causing stocks to decline again. The bond markets in Europe and the US declined, while the Chinese bond market benefited from loose policies. Commodities generally fell, with gold rising first and then falling, and industrial metals declining due to recession expectations. Only the US dollar index benefited from interest rate hikes [25]. Global Asset Performance - **Overview**: In the latest week (March 2 - 8), crude oil was the only asset that performed well, driving soybean meal to rise slightly. The US dollar index rebounded due to cash demand and rising oil prices, while silver plunged and the equity market was generally weak. Crude oil was strong because of supply shortages caused by the Iran - US conflict, and silver led the decline due to inflation expectations and a strong US dollar [37][43]. - **Specific Asset Performance**: - **Stock Market**: Global major stock indexes fell across the board, with emerging market indexes, the French CAC, and the German DAX falling by more than 6%. A - share styles were divided, with large - cap and value stocks performing better than small - cap and growth stocks. The Shanghai Composite 50 was basically flat, while the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 fell by more than 1% [46]. - **Bond Market**: Global bond yields rose significantly due to potential inflation pressure. The yield of the Brazilian 10 - year government bond rose by more than 50BP, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, the US, and Germany rose by more than 10BP. The yield of the Chinese 10 - year government bond fell slightly [49]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar index was strong, and the Brazilian real depreciated the most against the US dollar. The Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, and non - US currencies were under pressure, with both emerging and developed market exchange rate indexes falling [49]. - **Commodity Market**: The commodity market was divided. Energy prices rose, with crude oil soaring and natural gas rising for the first time in six weeks. Precious metals and industrial metals performed poorly due to a strong US dollar and asset re - allocation. Aluminum rose by more than 6%, and agricultural products showed mixed performance [53]. - **Volatility**: Commodity volatility was close to historical extremes, with the implied volatility of precious metals and crude oil exceeding the 95% historical range. Stock index volatility was relatively high, and the volatility of the foreign exchange and bond markets increased compared to the previous week [56].