Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.251, UK 4.841, France 3.640, Germany 2.957, Italy 3.776, Spain 3.463, Switzerland 0.342, Greece 3.770, Japan 2.269, Brazil 6.244, China 1.836, Australia 4.976, New Zealand 4.685 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.793, UK 4.401, Germany 2.586, Japan 1.265, Italy 2.823, China (1Y yield) 1.251, Australia 4.615 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.221, South Africa zar 16.763, Korean won 1495.350, Thai baht 32.785, Malaysian ringgit 3.936 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.891, off - shore RMB 6.878, RMB central parity rate 6.898, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.733 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6606.490, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46021.430, NASDAQ 22090.690, Mexican stock index 65199.400, UK stock index 10063.500, French CAC 7807.870, German DAX 22839.560, Spanish stock index 16905.900, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53372.530, Hang Seng Index 25500.580, Shanghai Composite Index 4006.552, Taiwan stock index 33689.680, Korean stock index 5763.220, Indian stock index (not available), Thai stock index 1417.450, Malaysian stock index 1720.710, Australian stock index 8690.741, emerging - economy stock index 1476.210 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3532.360, euro - area investment - grade credit - bond index 264.135, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 288.420, US high - yield credit - bond index 2901.920, euro - area high - yield credit - bond index 406.560, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1812.641 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4006.55, down 1.39%; CSI 300 closing price 4583.25, down 1.61%; SSE 50 closing price 2916.23, down 1.53%; ChiNext closing price 3309.10, down 1.11%; CSI 500 closing price 7877.09, down 2.71% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.09 (down 0.09), SSE 50 is 11.53 (down 0.02), CSI 500 is 35.63 (down 0.84), S&P 500 is 25.85 (down 0.07), German DAX is 16.25 (down 0.94) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.38 (up 0.03), German DAX is 3.20 (up 0.32) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1611.90, 5 - day average - 924.63; main - board latest value - 1212.19, 5 - day average - 750.58; ChiNext latest value - 275.27, 5 - day average - 104.94; CSI 300 latest value - 301.52, 5 - day average - 127.05 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 21109.69, up 649.05; CSI 300 is 5478.50, up 236.76; SSE 50 is 1364.19, up 226.97; small - and medium - sized board is 3982.31, down 139.03; ChiNext is 5417.49, up 18.74 [5] - Main contract basis: IF basis 3.35 (0.07%), IH basis 3.97 (0.14%), IC basis 9.31 (0.12%) [5] - Treasury futures: T2303 closing price 108.33, up 0.06%; TF2303 closing price 106.06, up 0.06%; T2306 closing price 108.29, up 0.07%; TF2306 closing price 105.86, up 0.04% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3969% (down 9.00 BP), R007 is 1.4851% (no change), SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5280% (no change) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has led to increased uncertainty and volatility in various sectors [20][21][116] - Different industries are facing different challenges and opportunities. For example, the energy sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while the agricultural sector is influenced by factors such as production and demand [26][30][116] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - selling momentum was released. On Thursday, the stock index tumbled, affected by factors such as the Fed's decision and the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The short - term stock index will still fluctuate due to news and wait for the situation to become clearer. Trading strategies include grid operations for unilateral trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [20][21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The foreign market risk appetite slightly stabilized. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the bond market still lacks substantial positive drivers, and the upward space is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure increased, and the market fluctuated widely. The US soybean and soybean meal prices are affected by both fundamentals and the macro - environment. It is recommended to slightly layout long positions, but the space is limited [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices soared, and domestic sugar prices followed. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, supporting international sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The recommended strategy includes going long unilaterally, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling put options [29][30][31] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the supply and demand of oils are in a state of uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see for trading strategies [32][33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The increase in millet auctions led to high - level fluctuations in the market. The US corn price is strong, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on dips and widening the spread between 05 corn and starch [35][36][37] - **Hogs**: The pressure of hog slaughter increased, and hog prices continued to decline. Due to factors such as high inventory and relatively strong feed prices, hog prices are under pressure. It is recommended to close previous short positions [38][39] - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were strong, and the futures market fluctuated strongly. Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and the price of related products. It is recommended to go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract on dips [40][41][42] - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed of apples was acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods was firm. The fundamentals of apples are strong, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45][46] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw materials provided support, and steel prices maintained a fluctuating trend. The production of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased. Affected by overseas and raw material factors, steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [49][50] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market fluctuated greatly, and attention should be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The price of coking coal is affected by both energy and industrial product attributes. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][52][53] - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increased, and spot hedging at high levels was the main strategy. The iron ore price has risen rapidly, but the supply is still in a relatively loose pattern. It is recommended for spot enterprises to hedge at high levels [54][55][56] - **Ferroalloys**: Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on manganese ore, and the price fluctuated strongly. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a positive feedback state of demand and cost. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [58][59] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The escalation of geopolitical tensions increased concerns about interest rate hikes, and gold and silver were under pressure. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and the expectation of interest rate hikes, gold and silver prices are expected to face a period of "headwinds" in the short - term. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a short - term bearish view [61][62][63] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The marginal easing of the Middle East conflict led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The market for platinum and palladium is affected by geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - spread trading when the price difference is low [66][67] - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continued, and copper prices fluctuated at a low level. The copper price is affected by the situation in the Middle East and supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to macro changes [68][69] - **Alumina**: Alumina prices declined with market sentiment. Guinea's potential reduction in bauxite exports and new domestic production capacity will affect the supply of alumina. The price is expected to be under pressure [70][71][72] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical risks and macro - concerns jointly expanded, and aluminum prices weakened. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the financial attribute of aluminum prices is significantly dragged down [73][74][75] - **Cast Aluminum Alloys**: Macro - expectations had a negative impact, and the market was under pressure along with aluminum prices. Affected by the Middle East situation and macro - factors, the market is under pressure [77][78] - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to macro and capital sentiment. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical factors. The price may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [81][82][83] - **Lead**: It is recommended to wait and see. The lead market is affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The current price is in a weak - fluctuation state [85][86][87] - **Nickel**: The short - term price was dominated by the macro - environment. The nickel price is affected by both macro - factors and industrial fundamentals, and it is recommended to be cautious [88] - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The stainless - steel market is affected by global economic concerns and cost factors. It is recommended to wait for the macro - environment to stabilize [91] Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Israel stated that it would suspend air strikes on energy facilities, and oil prices maintained a high - level fluctuation. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the container shipping market is facing cost and demand uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to military deployments and shipping companies' cargo - receiving situations [105][106][107] - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: The reduction in Guinea's bauxite exports in April may limit the rental height of large ships. The dry - bulk shipping market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. The long - term impact of the Middle East conflict on the market needs to be observed [108][109][110] - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is still dominated by over - the - counter agreement transactions, and EU carbon futures continue to decline. The Chinese carbon market is expected to have increased trading activity in the medium - term, while the EU carbon market is facing policy and energy - related uncertainties [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances increased the amplitude of the market. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price maintains high volatility. It is recommended to go long at a high level [115][116][118] - **Asphalt**: Supply was tight, demand was weak, and concerns about raw materials continued. Affected by the Middle East conflict, the supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the demand recovery is slow. The price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [119][120] - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost fluctuated at a high level. The fuel - oil market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to go long on the near - month LU contract on dips and pay attention to the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels [122][123] - **LPG**: Middle - East energy facilities were attacked, and the market was strong. The LPG price is affected by oil prices and supply disruptions. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [125][126][127] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical risks continued, and the upward trend remained unchanged. The natural - gas market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions. It is recommended to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options on TTF futures [128][129][130] - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, PX and PTA may face supply shortages. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [132][133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The shortage of raw - material supply led to an improved market outlook. Affected by raw - material supply concerns, the supply of benzene and styrene may be affected. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [135][136][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has entered a de - stocking pattern. Affected by raw - material supply and import reduction, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [139] - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuated within a range. The short - fiber market is affected by raw - material prices and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [141][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory continued to decline. The bottle - chip market is affected by production restarts and seasonal demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [143][144] - **Propylene**: Supply was tight. The propylene market is affected by cost and supply factors. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145][146] - **Plastic PP**: The gross profit of MTO - made PP increased. The plastic and PP markets are affected by macro - factors and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to hold long positions in relevant contracts [147][148][149] - **Caustic Soda**: The market was weak. The caustic - soda market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [150][151][152] - **PVC**: The market mainly fluctuated. The PVC market is affected by international supply reduction and domestic supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to buy on dips [153][155] - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The soda - ash market is affected by supply, demand, and macro - factors. The price is expected to continue to be weak [156][157][159] - **Glass**: It fluctuated widely with a downward trend. The glass market is affected by real - estate demand and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with a downward trend [160][161][162] - **Methanol**: It remained firm at a high level. Affected by the situation in Iran, the supply of methanol is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be strong [163][164][165] - **Urea**: It fluctuated weakly. The urea market is affected by domestic and international supply - demand relationships and policies. The price is expected to fluctuate [166][167] - **Pulp**: The port inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the supply pressure was relieved. The pulp market is still in a state of oversupply, but the inventory reduction provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a small amount of long - position layout [168][169][170] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The transaction was average, and the market had only rigid - demand purchases. The offset - printing - paper market is affected by supply - demand relationships and raw - material prices. It is recommended to go short on rallies [171][172][173] - **Logs**: The increase in import costs supported the market's upward trend. The log market is affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [173][174][175] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The RU warehouse receipts continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. The natural - rubber market is affected by factors such as inventory and tire production. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU contract and consider short - selling the NR contract [177][178][180] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of tires increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The butadiene - rubber market is affected by factors such as tire production and macro - factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR contract [184][185][186]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive, with expected consumption exceeding production in the 26/27 global market and potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February showed a significant increase, and the current period is the traditional peak season. However, there are also some negative factors, such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders and an increase in inventory. The market has started a technical correction, and attention should be paid to the support around 15,000 when the main contract moves to 09 [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be regulated with a possible reduction of over 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, China's textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. China imported 370,000 tons of cotton from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and 290,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 80,000 tons year-on-year. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,722 yuan, and the basis is 1,572 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season in March shows an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons, which is a negative factor [4]. - **Market trend**: The 20-day moving average is upward, but the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, which is a negative signal [4]. - **Main positions**: The positions are generally long, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Expectations**: The textile exports from January to February were good, and the current period is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April". Coupled with the reduction of US tariffs and the easing of Sino-US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. However, the previous positive factors have been mostly reflected in the market, and there are no new positive factors. The market has started a technical correction. The main contract is about to move to 09, and attention should be paid to the support around 15,000 [4]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 26.343 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 247,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 533,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.817 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 79,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 16.631 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 278,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 573,000 tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, global cotton production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the 25/26 season. Consumption is expected to be 25 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The ending inventory is expected to be 16.6 million tons, a decrease of 1%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is expected to be 66.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.64 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons, consumption is expected to be 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 and 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 and 100 cents per pound [15]. 5.持仓数据 - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is currently tighter than the high - sulfur market, with a much higher spread for low - sulfur fuel oil. The volume of arbitrage cargoes from the West in March is expected to be less than in February, and the April arrivals may be even lower than in March [3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil East - West near - month spread has soared to its widest level in six years, highlighting the growing gap between the weak European market and the strengthening Asia - Pacific market. Overnight oil prices fluctuated greatly, and the US continued to release easing signals, temporarily exempting Iranian and Russian crude oil, which short - term suppresses oil prices, and fuel oil follows the adjustment. FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 4650 - 4850, and LU2605 in the range of 5700 - 5900 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand, with potential risks including a rapid cease - fire in the Middle East [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The high - sulfur fuel oil's East - West near - month spread has reached a six - year high. Overnight oil price fluctuations and US policies suppress oil prices in the short - term. FU2605 is expected to trade between 4650 - 4850, and LU2605 between 5700 - 5900 [3]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is tight, with less Western arbitrage cargoes expected; the basis shows a spot premium over futures; the price is above the 20 - day line; the low - sulfur main position is long (although long positions are decreasing) [3]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The high - sulfur main position is short (although short positions are decreasing); Trump's government's TACO situation and upstream crude oil pressure [3][4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: A Singapore - based trader said the low - sulfur fuel oil market is tighter, and the volume of Western arbitrage cargoes is expected to decline [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 451 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 813 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory on March 18 was 2486.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels [3]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - **Main positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short (short positions decreasing), and low - sulfur main positions are long (long positions decreasing) [3]. 4. Spread Data - **Futures price changes**: The FU main contract futures price increased from 4687 to 4969, a 6.02% increase; the LU main contract futures price increased from 5586 to 6097, a 9.15% increase. The FU basis decreased by 23.48% to 451, and the LU basis decreased by 42% to 813 [5]. - **Spot price changes**: The prices of various types of fuel oil and diesel in different regions all increased to varying degrees, with the Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil having the highest increase rate of 5.65% [6]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated over time, with an inventory of 2486.9 million barrels on March 18, an increase of 37 million barrels compared to the previous period [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the supply side remains in a loose pattern, and the market sentiment is still optimistic. The total sample inventory decreased by 243 tons last week. With the improvement of terminal profits, some steel mills are implementing复产 plans, but the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at high prices is not high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises has increased, but the production level has not been significantly affected. The inventory of coking enterprises is decreasing. The steel mills' procurement demand is good, and the iron - water production is increasing. It is expected that the coke price will be stable and slightly strong in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The production of main - producing area coal mines is stable, and the supply side's loose pattern remains unchanged. The market trading activity has increased, and the price has more increases than decreases, with a neutral outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1240, and the basis is 80.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory is 820 tons, the port inventory is 258 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory is 893 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week, which is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net long position of coking coal has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the improvement of terminal profits, some steel mills are implementing复产 plans, and the market demand is gradually improving. However, the sentiment of coking coal and coke has declined recently, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at high prices is not high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include the increase in iron - water production and the difficulty of supply increase; bearish factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel price [6]. Daily View - Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal price has been rising slightly, increasing the cost of coking enterprises and compressing profit margins. However, the production level has not been significantly affected, and the supply is relatively stable. The steel mills' procurement demand is good, and the inventory of coking enterprises is decreasing, with a neutral outlook [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory is 689 tons, the port inventory is 199 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory is 56 tons, and the total sample inventory is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week, which is bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net long position of coke has decreased, but still bullish [7]. - **Expectation**: The steel sales situation has improved, the steel mills' profitability has recovered slightly, and the iron - water production is increasing. The current supply - demand of coke is relatively balanced, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable and slightly strong in the short term [7]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include the increase in iron - water production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include the compression of steel mills' profit margins and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coking Coal Price**: On March 19, 2026, the prices of various imported coking coal varieties at different ports are provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port is 1350 [10]. - **Coke Price**: On March 19, 2026, the prices of various port metallurgical coke varieties are provided, such as the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port is 1470 [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared to last week [21]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared to last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared to last week [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are neutral with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, upcoming domestic supply ceiling, weak downstream demand, and volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, the盘面 shows a neutral signal, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions, indicating a bullish sign. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, domestic supply nears the ceiling, downstream demand is weak, and macro sentiment is volatile in the short - term, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 24490, basis is 310, showing a premium over futures, rated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 21927 tons to 416425 tons compared to last week, rated as neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, rated as neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long and long positions increased, rated as bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply, and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. -利空Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily汇总 - Spot price: Shanghai yesterday's spot middle price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu was 70690, down 450; Yangtze River today's Shanghai price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts totaled 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory (daily) was 74750 tons, down 425 tons; SHFE inventory (daily) was 136300 tons, an increase of 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, while in 2024, there is an expected supply surplus of 150,000 tons [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. Neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,770, with a basis of 154, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. Bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. Neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,678, with a basis of 118, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. Bearish [3] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. Bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. Neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,310, with a basis of 456, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. Bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production reduction season [5] - **利空**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore had a strong bullish sentiment, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of ferronickel was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis was positive, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories were negative, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward, and the main position was net long with a reduction in long positions. Overall, Shanghai Nickel 2605 was expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of ferronickel was weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The basis was positive, the futures warehouse receipt decreased, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward. Overall, Stainless Steel 2605 was expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 19, compared with March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 3,650 to 131,550; LME Nickel decreased by 95 to 17,095; the Stainless Steel main contract decreased by 165 to 13,855. The nickel index decreased by 750 to 133,300, and the cold - rolled coil index decreased by 56 to 13,507 [10]. - **Spot prices**: On March 19, compared with March 18, SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 3,100 to 134,900; 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3,050 to 138,300; 1 imported nickel decreased by 3,250 to 131,450; nickel beans decreased by 3,250 to 134,000. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi remained unchanged at 15,100, in Foshan remained unchanged at 14,900, in Hangzhou decreased by 100 to 15,000, and in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, of which the futures inventory was 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. On March 19, compared with March 18, LME nickel inventory decreased by 180 to 283,770, and the nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 295 to 56,899. The total inventory decreased by 475 to 340,669 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons. On March 19, compared with March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipt decreased by 12,643 to 40,838 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On March 19, compared with March 18, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained unchanged at 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained unchanged at 34.5 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 15 and 17 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased by 3.87 to 1,089.61 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged at 3,675 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,153, the scrap steel production cost was 14,065, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,609 [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 133,274 yuan per ton [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to increased inflation pressure, tightened monetary policies in many countries, and significant fluctuations in the prices of various commodities [12][14][94]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some industries are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and macro - economic factors, while others are supported by cost or demand [2][3][4]. - In the short term, most commodities are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and investors need to pay close attention to geopolitical developments, supply - demand changes, and cost factors [17][22][41]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is dominated by macro factors, and the decline in the futures price has widened. The fundamentals are resilient with both supply and demand increasing. In the short term, it is expected to be weak, with the main contract running in the range of 140,000 - 148,000 yuan [2][41]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level and increasing, while the downstream demand is average. Multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. The futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, with the range of 1,150 - 1,300 yuan [3][119][122]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory has started to be depleted. The price is affected by raw material prices and demand expectations [4][47][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price has risen significantly. The production and quality of apples in the 25/26 production season have declined, and the low inventory supports the futures price [5][92][93]. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The energy sector has risen against the trend, while the overall A - share market has declined. Overseas stagflation risks have suppressed market sentiment. The view is neutral and weakly volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased inflation pressure, and central banks around the world have turned hawkish. The prices of precious metals have fallen sharply. In the short term, they are expected to be weakly volatile and seek to build a bottom at the low level in early February [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and the copper price has been under pressure. The short - term supply is tight at the mine end, the demand is picking up, and the inventory structure has changed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: Speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in March, and the inventory shows a structural differentiation. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset at high prices [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: There are both recession expectations and supply crises, and the internal and external aluminum markets have shown increased differentiation. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions lightly [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The interest rate cut path is unclear, and the zinc price has been under pressure. The supply shortage at the mine end has improved, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: The situation in the Middle East has been stalemate, and the tin price has continued to fall. The supply has gradually recovered, and the demand is relatively weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, there is a bullish logic [28][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has been significantly adjusted, and the nickel price has weakened rapidly. The supply pressure still exists, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to be in a weakly volatile range [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - sentiment has suppressed the market, and the supply and demand are gradually recovering. The raw material cost is high, and the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][36][38]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The macro - sentiment has dominated the market, and the futures price has fallen significantly. The fundamentals are resilient, but the short - term price is expected to be weak [39][40][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has fallen significantly due to market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has recovered, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [42][43][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has fallen significantly due to market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has shown signs of recovery. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the cost fluctuations [45][46]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price has been in a high - level volatile pattern. The supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory has started to be depleted. The price is affected by raw material prices and demand expectations [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron ore price has been supported in the short term. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern in the short term [51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the price has been affected by geopolitical risks. The supply has gradually recovered, and the demand has increased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract at low prices [53][55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke price has followed the coking coal and fluctuated. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract at low prices [58][60][62]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict has continued, and the supply and demand of silicon iron have both increased. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [64][65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment has been changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The supply and demand have both increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range and strongly volatile pattern [67][68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean has stopped falling and rebounded, and the domestic soybean meal is supported by tight supply and demand. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The hog supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply reduction [73][74]. - **Corn**: The spot price has remained stable, and the corn price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The supply has improved, and the demand is still at a low level [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price has risen again, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by policies and energy prices [78][79]. - **Cotton**: The commodity market has weakened, and the cotton price has continued to adjust. The US cotton is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern, and the domestic cotton price is supported by demand in the long term [80][81]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is stable, and the price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern. The inventory is normal, and the demand is average [84]. - **Oils and Fats**: The geopolitical disturbance has been repeated, and the vegetable oil price has followed the crude oil price. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all in a volatile pattern, and the market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [85][86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube consumption is difficult to improve, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [89][90]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price has risen significantly. The production and quality have declined, and the low inventory supports the price [92][93]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a wide - range volatile pattern of oil prices. The supply risk has increased, and the price is expected to be in a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support" in the short term [94][95]. - **PX**: The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback has dragged down the trend. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [97][98]. - **PTA**: The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback has dragged down the trend. The supply has decreased, and the demand is affected by high - price raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price [99][100]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. The price is affected by the oil price and downstream demand [102]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of raw materials is expected to be in short supply, and the bottle chips are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to follow up [103][104]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East conflict has affected the ethylene glycol, and the near - month inventory reduction is expected to expand. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased seasonally. It has the potential to rise in the short term [105][106]. - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is strong, but the high - level volatility has increased. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [107]. - **Styrene**: The raw material ethylene has risen significantly, and the styrene profit has been significantly compressed. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to slightly reduce the inventory. It follows the oil price [108][109][110]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE maintains a risk - free basis, and the transaction is cold. The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a wide - range volatile pattern [111]. - **PP**: The upstream parking and load - reduction have increased, and the PP is relatively strong. The supply has shrunk, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the 5 - 9 positive spread [112]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the methanol is relatively strong. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold long - position bottom positions [112]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is running strongly. The supply has decreased, and the demand has improved. The price is affected by the Middle East situation [114][115]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the PVC price has fluctuated emotionally. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [116]. - **Urea**: The commercial storage release and price - stabilizing policies have led to a possible oscillatory callback of the urea price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [118]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level and increasing, and the downstream demand is average. Multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. The futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [119][122]. - **Glass**: The downstream demand has recovered slowly, and the glass enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [121][123]. - **Natural Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East has been stalemate, and the rubber price is running weakly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by geopolitical factors [123][124][126]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle East, the BR is generally supported to run strongly. The cost support is strong, and the demand support still exists [126][127][128]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping companies have raised the fuel surcharge, and the offline price has loosened. The futures price is in a wide - range volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities of the peak - season contracts [128][130][131].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are mixed. Supply - side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being loosened. The February manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price. Copper inventories increased on March 19, and the SHFE copper inventory rose compared to last week. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending down. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price hit a new high and is currently oscillating downward at a high level [2] - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply. There are also geopolitical disturbances such as those between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - US - Israel. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the mine production increase is slow with a production cut event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area. On the negative side, the US tariff policy fluctuates, and the global economy is not optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [3][4] - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint on Copper - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, looser scrap copper policy, and a decline in February manufacturing PMI to 49.0% (down 0.3 ppts from last month), considered positive [2] - **Basis**: Spot price is 95535, basis is 1115, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures, considered positive [2] - **Inventory**: On March 19, copper inventory increased by 1325 to 335425 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to last week, considered negative [2] - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending down, considered negative [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, considered positive [2] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the copper price hit a new high and is currently oscillating downward at a high level. Attention should be paid to Middle - East events [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing, mine - end tightness, geopolitical disturbances (Russia - Ukraine, Iran - US - Israel), possible Fed rate cuts, slow mine production increase, and a production - cut event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [3][4] - **利空Factors**: Fluctuating US tariff policies and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4] Other Aspects - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [18][20] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [12] - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is declining [14]