1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The market is influenced by macro - geopolitical factors and supply marginal increments. The US trade court's ruling on Trump's global tariff policy and potential sanctions on Russia, along with OPEC + supply policies, are key factors. Demand is constrained by global trade frictions. Short - term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and breakthroughs require clarity on OPEC + production decisions and EU - US tariff games. Mid - to long - term, a band - trading strategy is recommended, and short - term, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. Suggested price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Attention should be paid to INE spread rebound opportunities and options to buy volatility during range - bound periods [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase due to profit improvement and new production lines. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost decline pose risks. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 6 - 9 spread long position [7]. - PVC: Recently, PVC has been weak due to poor market sentiment. Fundamentally, long - term contradictions are prominent as real - estate demand remains sluggish, and exports face potential negative impacts. In the near term, supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and exports may remain positive due to BIS extension. PVC is expected to remain weak in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended with resistance around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - Spot prices continue to fall, but trading volume has improved. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. For PE, maintenance will increase before early June, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decrease. For PP, supply pressure will increase after the maintenance peak in late May. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of restocking. It is recommended to short PP on rallies and expect the LP spread to widen [12]. Styrene - After the styrene delivery, short - covering cooled down, and the basis declined. The weak commodity market and inventory increases of pure benzene and styrene at the docks put downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The new - cycle port inventory of styrene has started to accumulate, increasing the pressure on high - price supplies. In the medium term, the low - profit situation of 3S products provides limited support for styrene, and Sino - US tariff disputes will negatively affect terminal demand. However, the overnight crude oil rebound may impact the chemical market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on styrene in the medium term [18]. Urea - The market is currently weak due to increased inventory pressure during the demand lull. If export - reserved inventory cannot be quickly digested, it will further intensify spot pressure. Urea exports are a potential turning point, depending on Middle East and South American procurement demand and export policies. If orders exceed expectations, inventory pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the market will remain loose [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing as some domestic and foreign devices resume production. Downstream PTA load is rising, and the short - term supply - demand situation is still good. Spot supplies are tight, and foreign buyers are supporting prices. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position can be attempted, and the PX - SC spread can be narrowed [29]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices restarted, and the supply - demand situation is weakening due to strong polyester factory减产 sentiment. Cost support is limited, but low processing fees provide some support. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position is recommended [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Despite polyester减产 expectations, supply is expected to contract due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Port inventory is decreasing, and de - stocking may accelerate in June. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 9 - 1 spread long position [29]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are under pressure, and some factories plan to reduce production. Raw material PTA supply - demand is weakening. Short - fiber processing fees may recover, and the absolute price will follow raw materials. Attention should be paid to factory production cuts. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees can be widened at low levels [29]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply is expected to increase, but demand from the downstream soft - drink industry will rise during the peak consumption season. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and attention should be paid to device operation under low processing fees. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees are expected to range between 350 - 550 yuan/ton, with opportunities to widen at the lower end [29]. Methanol - Fundamentally, inland methanol has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has increased, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period, with May imports expected to reach 110 million tons. Iranian supply increments and positive import profits strengthen arrival expectations. MTO low - operation restricts demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies, as the mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under inventory - accumulation expectations [38][40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude rose to $65.31/barrel, WTI to $62.31/barrel, and SC to 457.40 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3, also increased [2]. - **Product Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased slightly. Some spreads, like RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3, decreased [2]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of some refined products, such as US gasoline and Singapore gasoline, decreased [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices of PVC decreased. Some spreads, like V2505 - 2509, also changed. Overseas quotes were stable, and export profits increased significantly [6][7]. - **Caustic Soda**: Domestic prices were stable, overseas quotes increased, and export profits turned positive [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry and some downstream industries'开工 rates increased, while PVC开工 rates decreased slightly. Inventories of both products decreased [6][7]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased. Some spreads, such as L2505 - 2509 and PP2505 - 2509, changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PE device开工 rate decreased, PP device and powder开工 rates increased slightly, and downstream weighted开工 rates increased. PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased [11][12]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and some other upstream products changed. Pure benzene prices decreased [15]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, and the spread decreased [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Profits**: Overseas quotes decreased slightly, and import profits increased significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic pure benzene综合开工率 increased, styrene开工率 decreased, and some downstream products'开工 rates changed. Inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices decreased slightly, and some spot prices increased. Some spreads and basis values changed [21][25]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production of urea increased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory remained stable [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. PX prices decreased [29]. - **Polyester Product Prices**: Prices of POY, FDY, and other polyester products were stable or decreased slightly. Cash flows of some products changed [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA开工率 increased, MEG综合开工率 decreased, and polyester综合开工率 decreased slightly [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of methanol decreased, and some spreads and basis values changed. Spot prices in different regions also changed [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Enterprise and port inventories of methanol increased, upstream and some downstream开工 rates changed [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].

数据来源：隆众资讯、Bloomberg、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.25 | 64.78 | 0.47 | 0.73% | | | WIT | 62.00 | 61.53 | 0.47 | 0.76% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 456.80 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].