Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: April 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Jin, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jie, Feng Zeren [3] - Data Source: Wind, CCB Futures Research and Development Department [5] Market Conditions Futures Market - Methanol weighted contract increased positions and declined, with an increase of 15,166 lots. The 05 main contract decreased positions by 28,280 lots, and the 09 contract increased positions by 37,954 lots. The weighted contract showed a trend of rapid decline and then stopped falling and rebounded, finally closing with a small solid negative line with a long lower shadow, a overall decline of 1.29% [5] - MA2501: Opened at 2340, closed at 2307, high at 2360, low at 2223, down 1.66%, volume 13,148, open interest 23,092, open interest change +5456, speculation degree 0.57 [7] - MA2505: Opened at 2365, closed at 2352, high at 2395, low at 2253, down 0.68%, volume 1,082,918, open interest 495,866, open interest change -28280, speculation degree 2.18 [7] - MA2509: Opened at 2272, closed at 2229, high at 2282, low at 2130, down 1.68%, volume 569,048, open interest 467,493, open interest change +37954, speculation degree 1.22 [7] Spot Market - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [5] Inventory - As of April 9, 2025, the domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 314,300 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.88%. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 254,600 tons, an increase of 31,200 tons from the previous period, a rise of 13.98% [5] - The total domestic methanol port inventory was 569,800 tons, a decrease of 46,300 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in the East China region decreased by 51,000 tons, and the inventory in the South China region increased by 4,700 tons. The port inventory has declined for 6 consecutive weeks and is close to the historical low level in the past 4 years [5] Technical Analysis - In the hourly line cycle, the price reached a new low, MACD formed a bottom divergence and was confirmed, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. In the daily line, after the price broke below the previous low of 2286 support level, it quickly pulled back and stood above the 2286 support level. RSI entered the oversold area but was still in the钝化 stage. The short - term is regarded as oscillating weakly [6] Industry News - Zhonghua Business Co., Ltd. was entrusted by Jinfeng Green Energy Chemical (Xing'an League) Co., Ltd. to conduct a public competitive negotiation for the T+EPC general contracting project of the electrolytic water hydrogen production plant (Phase I) of the 2 million - kilowatt wind - power - to - green - hydrogen and 500,000 - ton green methanol demonstration project. The project plans a total investment of 13.665 billion yuan, with a planned wind power scale of 2 million kilowatts, an annual hydrogen production of 92,200 tons, and supporting facilities including 118 - ton hydrogen storage facilities and 160,000 - kilowatt/2 - hour energy storage facilities [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has slightly decreased as the output from overhauled and reduced - capacity facilities is more than that from restored ones. The inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline, and the port inventory also shows a downward trend. In the short - term, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to remain low, and the port inventory may fluctuate slightly. The demand side has mixed performance, with some装置 having parking expectations under low - profit conditions. Due to the impact of Sino - US tariff policies on the oil market, it may indirectly drag down the methanol price, and short - term观望 is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2352 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 123 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 495,866 hands, down 28,280 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 19,746 hands, up 882 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,156, up 100 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2440 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2100 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan. The East - West price difference is 340 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 88 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 274 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 354 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. FOB Rotterdam is 311 euros/ton, down 2 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 80 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.48 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 45.1 tons, down 11.55 tons; in South China ports, it is 16.51 tons, down 4.22 tons. The import profit of methanol is 110.63 yuan/ton, up 24.67 yuan; the monthly import volume is 56.18 tons, down 48.05 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 223,300 tons, down 12,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 86.21%, up 2.15% [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 52.5%, up 0.08%; the acetic acid operating rate is 90.4%, up 0.95%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.51%, up 0.77%; the MTBE operating rate is 64.18%, up 1.13%. The olefin operating rate is 87.58%, up 0.28%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 662 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.88%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.27%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.17%, down 5.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.16%, down 5.45% [2] Industry News - As of April 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 31.43 tons, up 0.28 tons (0.88%); the sample enterprise orders to be shipped are 25.46 tons, up 3.12 tons (13.98%). The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 56.98 tons, down 4.63 tons. The inventory in East China has decreased by 5.1 tons, while that in South China has increased by 0.47 tons. As of April 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin装置 is 87.54%, up 0.04% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is bearish due to strong supply increase expectations, weakened global demand under tariff disturbances, and continued inventory accumulation [3]. - For PX, PTA, and MEG, the cost has dropped significantly, and demand has weakened due to tariff disturbances. PX prices are expected to be weak, PTA prices will follow the cost - side to fluctuate, and MEG prices are relatively supported to rebound [4]. - The polyolefin market's demand is expected to weaken significantly after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, and prices are expected to decline following crude oil [5]. - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and prices are expected to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented [6]. - The methanol market's near - term supply and demand are tight, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose, and the main contract is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summaries by Directory Rubber Price - Futures prices of RU, NR, and BR have declined. The RU main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, the NR main contract by 470 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract by 390 yuan/ton from March 28 to April 3 [12]. - The basis of rubber main contracts has changed. The RU main contract basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis by 6 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 490 yuan/ton [15]. - The RU5 - 9 month spread fluctuates slightly. The RU - NR spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous period and 222 yuan/ton year - on - year [19]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber has improved. It increased by 50.67 dollars/ton compared to the previous period and 66 dollars/ton year - on - year [25]. Supply - Domestic and foreign natural rubber production areas are in different stages of the opening season. China's Yunnan and Hainan, Thailand, and Vietnam have specific opening schedules. The supply is expected to increase [3][33]. - China's natural and mixed rubber imports have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 50.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [41]. - The production of butadiene is at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on April 4, 2025, was 75.37%, a year - on - year increase of 11.71% [45]. - There is a net import of butadiene rubber. In February 2025, the import was 22,651 tons, and the export was 18,456 tons [52]. Demand - The domestic demand for rubber is generally rigid. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 75.81%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.28%, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year [3][55]. - Tire manufacturers have insufficient motivation to reduce inventory. As of the week of April 4, the inventory turnover days of domestic tire enterprises' full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 41 days and 43 days respectively, with a weekly decrease of 1 day [56]. - From January to February, tire exports maintained a year - on - year increase [57]. - China's automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. In March 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 29% increase from February and a 9% decrease from the same period last year [58][59]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber is still in the accumulation stage. As of March 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.379 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - The inventory of Qingdao area has increased. As of March 28, the total inventory was 476,400 tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from the previous period [61]. - As of April 3, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 200,000 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 200,771 tons, a weekly decrease of 40 tons [66]. 持仓 - The total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR have changed. As of April 3, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber decreased by 7,043 hands, 20 - number rubber decreased by 11,038 hands, and BR increased by 4,939 hands compared to March 28 [72]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined, and the warehouse receipt pressure has eased [75]. PX&PTA&MEG Price - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have declined. From March 28 to April 3, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased by 92 yuan/ton, the MEG closing price by 12 yuan/ton, and the PX closing price by 140 yuan/ton [100]. - The basis and spreads of PTA, MEG, and PX have changed. For example, the PTA basis decreased by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the PX basis increased by 135 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - Some PX devices have started maintenance. As of April 4, the PX operating load in China was 74.4%, a weekly decrease of 3.4%, and the Asian PX operating load was 71.5%, a weekly decrease of 1% [120]. - The operating load of PTA decreased by 0.7% to 79.2% as of April 3 [123]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.13% as of April 3, a decrease of 0.45% from the previous period [125]. 进出口 No relevant information provided. Inventory - The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased. The inventory in the East China main port area was about 785,000 tons as of March 31, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous period [4]. Polyester Demand The terminal demand is in the process of recovery, but the downstream demand after the festival has not recovered as expected, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow [130][131]. 持仓 No relevant information provided.

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...