交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 1、基本面：圣诞假期，科技股再撑美股走高，金价跟随银价上涨，刷新历史最高； 美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘小幅下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年 期美债收益率涨2.74个基点报4.165%；美元指数跌0.46%报98.26，离岸人民币对美 元小幅贬值报7.0336；COMEX黄金期货涨2.13%报4480.60美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1000.86，现货994.2，基差-6.62，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91716千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-23 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 | 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1690 | 0 | 05合约 | 1698 | 1 | 仓 单 | 10881 | | -95 | | 山东现货 | 1730 | 2 0 | 基 差 | - 8 | - 1 | UR综合库存 | 131 | 8 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1690 | 0 | UR01 | 1649 | - 3 | UR厂家库存 | 118 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 2744 | | UR05 | 1698 ...

自 2022 年设立以来，基金会始终把制度建设摆在突出位置，把"规范"作为立身之本、发展之基。从章程机制到议事规则，从内部控制到风险管理， 从项目立项到信息公开，基金会围绕社会组织等级评估的相关要求，系统构建起较为完备的治理体系，先后制定和完善管理制度 30 余项、业务流程 20 余条，逐步形成权责清晰、流程规范、运转有序的工作格局。 面对 2025 年全市社会组织评估体系的修订升级，基金会坚持高标准对标、严要求落实，对照新指标全面梳理治理结构、财务规范、项目档案和信息 公开等关键环节，查缺补漏、固强补弱，确保申报材料真实完整、数据口径统一、程序符合规范。首次参评即获评 3A 等级，既是对既有工作的集中 检验，也是基金会持续推进现代公益组织治理体系建设的重要里程碑。 以金融特长为纽带，拓展可持续的公益路径 2 作为由金融机构发起设立的公益基金会，申万宏源基金会始终坚持把"金融所长"用于"公益所需"，围绕乡村振兴、教育帮扶、帮难扶困等重点领 域，持续探索具有金融特色的公益模式。 在巩固脱贫攻坚成果、全面推进乡村振兴中，基金会联合申银万国期货、宏源期货等专业机构，在甘肃、新疆等地持续推进"保险 + 期货"、"防返 ...

去年是东吴期货快速发展的一年。公司上下深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届三中全会精神，在东吴证 券党委的领导下，以高质量发展为目标，以服务实体经济为使命，各项工作高效、稳健、扎实推进，取 得了较为出色的经营业绩，展现了东吴期货蓬勃发展的气势与魄力。 [聚焦主业 稳健经营铸就"最佳"根基] 去年，面对复杂多变的市场环境，东吴期货坚持内涵式发展与外延式扩张并举战略，实现了关键业务指 标的稳健增长。公司年度经纪业务收入达22831万元，同比增长20.51%；客户保证金规模突破135亿 元，同比增长12.59%，彰显了市场与客户对公司的坚定信心。 经纪业务方面，东吴期货积极推行团队化管理，激发业务活力，拓展业务增量；以差异化与特色化为目 标，推行差异化考核政策，引进业务团队，加快建设新网点，先后设立三家新网点；持续强化从分支机 构、负责人到员工的考核管理与业务督导，营造争先进位的氛围；IB业务优化考核政策，与母公司深入 协同提升业务增量。去年各项举措共同发力，助推东吴期货客户权益较上一年度增长超两成。 资产管理业务方面，东吴期货立足财富管理发展赛道，围绕以衍生品为核心的FOF产品、以自主管理和 投顾为主的CTA产品两大发 ...

A 产业为锚：躬身入局 深耕实体经济的风险管理沃土 当螺纹钢价格年化波动率达35%，而下游加工企业平均利润率仅在2%左右时，实体企业面临的已不仅是周期性风险，而是生存环境的重大变化。平安期货 深刻认识到，真正的期货服务实体、赋能实体，不再是简单的工具供给，而是一场需要躬身入局的"能力共建"。 以某新能源汽车线束生产龙头企业为例，该企业年耗铜约6万吨，原料成本占比超过70%，是典型的"价格敏感型"企业。尽管饱受铜价波动之苦，但囿于缺 乏专业团队与经验，该企业对套期保值"想为而不敢为，欲为而不会为"。平安期货的介入，始于一次量身定制的主题路演，却又远不止于此。 平安期货业务团队深入企业，没有单纯灌输理论，而是共同梳理该企业从订单接收、原料采购、生产排期到成品销售的全流程。最终，双方锚定了"因传统 淡季满产导致库存累积"这一核心痛点，平安期货为企业量身定制了持续数月的铜期货卖出套保精细化方案。更为关键的是，平安期货提供了包括交易指令 执行、风险动态监控、定期效果评估在内的全流程服务，满足了企业"不想投入过多人力、精力"的核心诉求，将专业的期货操作转化为可托付的标准化服务 流程，真正实现了让企业"省事、省心"的承诺。 ...

为让普惠金融更具持续性，物产中大期货不断创新服务模式：2021年正式设立100万元"保险+期货"专项 基金，为项目落地提供稳定资金支持；持续完善"保险+期货""订单+期权"等组合服务模式，针对不同地 区的产业特点定制解决方案，既防范价格波动风险，又助力打通产销链路；此次在绿春县"保险+期 货"项目中启用的党建联建机制，更是将金融服务与地方发展深度绑定，通过与当地职能部门党支部共 建，整合政策、技术、金融资源，围绕产业提质增效、农户风险防范、金融知识普及等方面开展长效合 作，让"输血式帮扶"升级为"造血式赋能"。 在绿色金融与乡村振兴协同推进的国家战略指引下，物产中大期货始终坚守服务实体经济初心，将"保 险+期货"业务作为服务实体经济、践行社会责任的重要载体。 2025年9月15日，在上海期货交易所的大力支持下，物产中大期货在云南省绿春县启动天然橡胶"保险 +期货"项目，以专业金融工具为边境地区特色产业筑牢风险"防护网"。12月10日，物产中大期货工作人 员再赴绿春县，与县农科局深化对接调研，并通过党建联建机制为项目提质增效、长效帮扶夯实根基， 用实际行动诠释国企金融机构的责任与担当。 绿春县作为我国边境地区的 ...

2017年国家启动"两区"划定，将天然橡胶作为重要农产品，要求划定保护区，海南省规划保护面积840万亩。其 中，白沙黎族自治县(简称白沙县)是原国家级少数民族贫困县，以种植业为主，橡胶是其支柱产业，种植面积达 104万亩，人均橡胶种植面积和人均产量分别名列海南第一和全国第二。 2011年以来胶价的持续低迷导致胶农收入锐减，橡胶树弃管、弃割现象严重。为稳定胶农收入、助力橡胶产业发 展，在白沙县政府和上期所的支持下，新湖期货携手中国人民财产保险股份有限公司海南省分公司(简称人保财 险海南省分公司)于2017年首次将"保险+期货"精准扶贫创新模式引入海南，将全国首单天然橡胶"保险+期货"试点 项目落地白沙县，创新应用金融工具管理橡胶价格波动风险。 服务方案与开展过程 业务模式 在白沙县开展的天然橡胶项目采用"保险+期货"模式，这是一种将农户和期货市场通过保险公司进行间接联结的 具有中国特色的金融模式，为农业产业的风险管理提供了有效的金融手段。这一模式打造了"农民买价格保险或 收入保险保收益，保险公司购买场外期权对冲风险，期货公司风险管理公司复制期权覆盖风险"的闭环。 图为"保险+期货"模式流程 方案设计 胶水是生产 ...

首席点评： 有色新高，能化亮眼 中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变，12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，1 年期 LPR 为 3%。 中国央行：单笔逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日起 正式实施。特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联 储明年票委放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息，11 月 CPI 被低估。金银铜齐创历 史新高，黄金盘中涨超 2%、时隔两月再创新高，白银和伦铜连续两日创新高，现 货白银一度涨超 3%，伦铜四连涨；报道显示美国发力封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，原 油四连涨至逾一周新高，盘中涨近 3%。 重点品种：贵金属，原油，油脂 贵金属：国际黄金白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑， 但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。疲软的就业数据支持 美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形成提振。从长期角度来看， ...

2017年以来，东证期货在重视自身经营发展的同时，一直坚守初心，将行业发展融入服务国家战略中， 在20个省份的74个乡村振兴地区开展帮扶项目，投入资金超8700万元，涉及产业、教育、消费、场外期 权、"保险+期货"和"订单收购+期货"等多种帮扶形式。 项目背景 为积极响应习近平总书记提出的"走好新时代长征路"的号召，2021年，东证期货打造了公益品牌"IF公 益"，意在通过"保险+期货"的新兴金融模式扶持乡村农业经济，以公益"反哺"的力量，推动成就了中国 革命的红色地标收获来自新农村的富裕果实，践行"如期收获好成果，只为乡村更美好"的口号。截至目 前，"IF公益"项目覆盖江西省瑞金市和井冈山市、贵州省安龙县、广西全州县、四川省泸定县、广东省 南雄市、云南省宣威市、宁夏西吉县等地，共计投入近1240万元，从"保险+期货"、消费、产业、文化 及党建等领域对长征沿线地区进行帮扶。 服务方案 2024年下半年，东证期货"IF公益"继续沿着红军长征足迹，来到隶属甘南藏族自治州的迭部县，与迭部 县政府就帮扶意向项目进行深入交流，并签署了乡村振兴战略合作协议。根据迭部县产业发展特色及实 际需求，东证期货"IF公益"从党建共 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]