Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a strong trend today. The main reasons include the geopolitical situation in the Middle East disturbing oil prices, the strength of the external crude oil market, neutral inventory levels, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted, and many countries releasing strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil market. On the supply - demand side, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and low trading volume. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of the pipe industry remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8500 (+200), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 416, with a premium - discount ratio of - 4.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 623,000 tons (- 2000), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The main positions of LLDPE are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. With the Iranian situation disturbing oil prices, the strong external crude oil market, neutral inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [6] - **Negative factors**: Geopolitical factors. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted, and many countries releasing strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil market. On the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic braiding has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The operating rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8850 (+200), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 308, with a premium - discount ratio of - 3.4%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 596,000 tons (- 61,000), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main positions**: The main positions of PP are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. With the Iranian situation disturbing oil prices, the strong external crude oil market, neutral inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [8] - **Negative factors**: Geopolitical factors. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8500 (+200), the price of the 05 contract is 8916 (+485), the basis is - 416 (- 285), the warehouse receipt is 7081 (- 770), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 623,000 tons (- 2000), and the social PE inventory is 619,000 tons (- 44,000) [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 8850 (+200), the price of the 05 contract is 9158 (+530), the basis is - 308 (- 330), the warehouse receipt is 15710 (- 1900), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 596,000 tons (- 61,000), and the social PP inventory is 307,000 tons (- 17,000) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The net import volume and import dependence have fluctuated, and the apparent consumption has generally increased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The net import volume and import dependence have decreased. The apparent consumption has generally increased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index initially rose above 100 due to global central banks' inflation - fighting stance and market bets on Fed rate hikes. Later, it weakened as oil prices dropped, and global risk appetite improved. Domestically, the economy and inflation in China from January to February were better than expected, but policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. Short - term market trading focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks and the Fed rate decision. Overall, short - term asset performance is volatile, and caution is advised [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Global Situation**: The US dollar index and US Treasury yields weakened, and global risk appetite improved due to factors such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil and a "pause" in Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. - **Chinese Economy**: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. - **Policy**: The government's work report in 2026 has lower development goals and policy intensity compared to 2025. - **Asset Performance**: Short - term stock indices, government bonds, and most commodities are in a volatile state. The energy - chemical sector is slightly stronger, and short - term cautious operations are recommended [3]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors like precious metals and industrial metals, the domestic stock market fell sharply. In the short term, stock indices will fluctuate due to better - than - expected domestic economic data but intensified geopolitical shocks and a potentially hawkish Fed rate decision. Short - term cautious waiting is advisable [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market declined significantly. Later, as the US dollar weakened, the decline narrowed. Short - term precious metals will fluctuate, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [5][6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets remained weak on Thursday. Although costs have fallen, high oil prices still support costs. Steel inventories have peaked and declined, and production has increased. It is recommended to view the market as range - bound and beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore spot and futures prices fell slightly. Demand may recover slightly, and supply is in the off - season. The short - term upside of iron ore prices is limited, and the risk of a sharp fall after a rise should be noted [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly, and the futures trends diverged. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change, and their futures prices are recommended to be treated with a range - bound mindset [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been in a high - level shock. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. Although copper mines are tight, extreme shortages are unlikely. Refined copper production is growing rapidly, but high prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the non - ferrous metal sector fell sharply. Domestic aluminum supply is rigid, and inventories are accumulating. Overseas supply is tight due to the Middle - East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees have changed, and smelting production is at a relatively high level. Demand is not optimistic, and inventories are accumulating seasonally [10]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead is rising seasonally, while demand has entered the off - season. Inventories at home and abroad are at high levels [11]. - **Nickel**: The core issue is at the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has declined, and the supply of MHP may decrease. Nickel prices have support below but limited upside due to high inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is accelerating, and smelting enterprises are resuming work. Demand is highly differentiated, and inventories are increasing [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have led to significant damage to energy facilities, but then the situation showed signs of easing. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate significantly [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed the rise and then fall of oil prices. Terminal demand is showing negative feedback, but low inventories provide short - term support. Supply will remain low, and prices will follow oil price fluctuations [14]. - **PX**: The polyester sector did not follow the sharp rise in oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to downstream negative feedback, but the tight supply situation continues. The future trend depends on oil prices [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices fell slightly. Although inventory pressure has decreased, upstream strength has squeezed downstream profits, leading to production cuts. If oil prices remain strong, the cost - driven logic will continue, but negative feedback may limit the upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some port inventories have been pre - sold for export, keeping the price high. Downstream demand is under pressure, but exports may create upside space [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices fluctuate significantly following the energy - chemical sector. Downstream production cuts may limit the upside, but it will remain relatively strong in the short term [16]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market has risen, and port inventories are decreasing. The market is affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the overall pattern is strong, with prices expected to show a pulsed upward trend [16][17]. - **PP**: The price of PP has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply has decreased more significantly, supporting the price. The key factor is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [17]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply is tight, and although downstream profit margins are compressed, the price remains firm. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran conflict [18]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has weakened slightly. Port inventories have decreased, and daily production is high. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to return to a range - bound state [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, soybean futures rose slightly. The increase in oil prices has boosted international grain and oil prices. US soybean export sales have decreased [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: In March in China, the arrival of imported soybeans has decreased seasonally, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are decreasing, supporting the price of soybean meal. The expected increase in the supply of rapeseed has suppressed the sentiment of going long on rapeseed meal [19][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, soybean futures in the CBOT rose slightly. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction, while rapeseed oil trading is light, and palm oil prices may be supported by inventory decline [20]. - **Corn**: The sales of corn in production areas have slowed down, and prices are temporarily stable. However, alternative grains and potential rice auctions may limit the price increase and trading sentiment [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig - breeding industry is in a period of capacity adjustment. Although demand is improving marginally, it is still in the off - season. The risk of a further decline in pig prices exists in the short term, and there is also risk in the futures market [21].

Report Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell out - of - the - money calls [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding short positions moderately or staying on the sidelines when prices are high; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel recommends waiting and seeing; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is in a range - bound oscillation [1][14][17][18][20][21][22][23] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with oscillations; soda ash suggests shorting at high prices; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading [1][25][27][28][31][32][33][35] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][37][39][40] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 sideways; eggs are in a range - bound oscillation; corn is expected to trade sideways in the short term; for soybean meal, be cautious of chasing long on contract 05 due to capital disturbances; for oils and fats, suggest rolling long positions and gradually reducing previous long positions [1][42][43][44][45][46][48] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors, such as the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have a significant impact on the futures market, affecting inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and commodity supply and demand [5][14][15][17][21][22][25][27][28][31][33][42][47][48][50][51][52] - The domestic economic situation, including factors like social financing, credit data, and industrial demand, also influences the performance of various futures varieties [6][10][25][32][34][37][42][43][44][45][47] - Supply and demand fundamentals are key factors determining the price trends of different futures. For example, factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand play important roles in the price movements of commodities [9][10][11][12][14][15][17][19][20][24][25][27][28][31][32][33][34][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][45][47][48][49][50][51] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. With factors such as central banks' policies and geopolitical situations, the market may trade sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. Short - term trends depend on bond allocation strength, and medium - term trends are affected by inflation and economic recovery expectations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It has been weak and stable since the Spring Festival. With slow demand recovery in the terminal steel market, it is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. With the peak of steel inventory passing, the focus is on demand and the strength of raw materials [10] - **Glass**: It is expected to trade sideways at high levels. After downstream replenishment, there are opportunities to sell out - of - the - money calls [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level oscillation. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect the price. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately or stay on the sidelines at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The impact of the Middle East situation is two - sided. It is advisable to strengthen observation [17] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade sideways. Although the supply of nickel ore is tight, the weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upward drive. It is recommended to wait and see [18][19] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade sideways. With tight supply and stable demand, it is suitable for range trading [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. Geopolitical factors and economic data affect inflation and interest rate expectations, and the medium - term price centers are rising [21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. With both supply and demand increasing, attention should be paid to supply disruptions [23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities in the short term due to factors such as export tax rebates [25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. With support from demand and potential supply disruptions, it may have a strong rebound, but be cautious of chasing highs [27] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Supported by cost and export, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be bullish with oscillations. Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, attention should be paid to relevant factors such as demand and oil prices [30] - **Rubber**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by cost and demand, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [31] - **Urea**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may trade strongly within a range [32] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by supply disruptions and demand, it is suitable for range trading [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short at high prices. With high supply and inventory pressure, the price may continue to be under pressure [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption, the price may rise [37][38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: They are expected to trade sideways. The apple market has a polarized trading situation, and the jujube market has slow post - holiday sales [39][40] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is in a bottom - grinding phase, and in the long term, it may rebound. For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it sideways [42] - **Eggs**: They are in a range - bound oscillation. With improving demand and slightly easing supply pressure, the short - term price may be strong within a range [43][44] - **Corn**: It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. Affected by supply and demand factors, it is recommended to be cautious of hedging on rebounds [45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Affected by factors such as international trade and supply - demand, be cautious of chasing long on contract 05 [46][47] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a high - level oscillation. Different varieties have different performance. It is recommended to roll long positions and gradually reduce previous long positions [48][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The change in the interest rate trend expectations of major central banks has significantly increased the holding cost of non - interest - generating precious metals, suppressing the price trends of gold and silver. After a sharp short - term decline, the short - selling force has been somewhat released, and the prices may fluctuate widely at the current level. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 4.99% to $4651.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 6.16% to $72.81 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 4.99% to 1026.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 6.07% to 17660 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - On March 19, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.858 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1062.135 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 77.46 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15186.94 tons. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 92.8%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hike is 9.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate hike is 0.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 90.6%. [1] - On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged and opened the channel for "possible interest rate hikes". The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting and mentioned in the statement that it is concerned about the impact of rising oil prices. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 205,000, lower than the estimated 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week of March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said on March 19 that the US did not attack Iran's energy infrastructure, has allowed Iranian oil to continue to be transported through the Gulf region, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the next few days. In addition, the US may release strategic oil reserves again to suppress oil prices. [1] - France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan announced in a joint statement that they are prepared to take appropriate measures together to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. [1] - Iran said its offensive and defensive capabilities are unprecedented and warned that it will retaliate if its energy facilities are attacked again. According to Iranian lawmakers, the Iranian parliament is promoting a bill that requires relevant countries to pay tolls and taxes to Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is used as a safe passage for ship traffic, energy, and food transportation. [1] Market Logic - The US Producer Price Index in February rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market forecast of 3.0%. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, reducing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and leading to bets on interest rate hikes. The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in March, in line with market expectations. The European, British, and Japanese central banks all announced unchanged interest rates, and the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast. [2] - The US dollar index fell 1.10% to 99.19 on Thursday, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 4.25%. After Iran counterattacked the oil and gas facilities of relevant Middle - Eastern countries, the US Treasury Secretary said that sanctions on Iranian oil on sea tankers might be lifted, and Israel would "suspend" air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. International crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday and then declined. [2] Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term trading logic of precious metals has shifted from geopolitical hedging to "energy shock - inflation increase - delayed interest rate cuts". Precious metals have entered a stage of re - pricing between hedging attributes and interest rate constraints. Gold has been in a continuous correction, and silver has fallen more significantly due to high volatility and resonance with risk assets [2]. 3. Summary by Section Gold - **Logic**: - The positive reaction of gold to geopolitical risks is partially offset by higher interest rate expectations as the market focuses more on the secondary impact of damaged energy facilities on global inflation [3]. - The Fed maintains interest rates and sends a more cautious easing signal, leading to a re - contraction of the market's expectation of interest rate cuts this year. The real interest rate and the US dollar are relatively strong, suppressing the valuation of gold [3]. - The continuous outflow of gold ETFs indicates that some Western allocation funds are turning to a wait - and - see attitude at high levels, and gold has shifted from a "safe asset" to a "high - volatility asset" in short - term pricing, with significantly reduced price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: If oil prices remain high and inflation expectations continue to be revised upwards, gold will face short - term pressure from delayed interest rate cuts. If geopolitical conflicts further spill over and cause more widespread risk aversion, the medium - term allocation value of gold still exists. In the short term, gold may continue its weak consolidation under high volatility, and the medium - term direction depends on whether the oil price shock can be continuously transmitted to core inflation and the Fed's tolerance for slow growth [3]. Silver - **Logic**: - Silver has both precious metal and industrial metal attributes. While the precious metal sector is under pressure, it is also dragged down by the decline in global growth and risk appetite, so its decline is usually greater than that of gold [4]. - Silver had a rapid increase and a more crowded position in the early stage. When the macro - economic expectations change rapidly, it is easier to trigger profit - taking and passive position reduction, resulting in an amplified price adjustment [4]. - If the outflow of gold ETFs, rising interest rates, and a general decline in commodities resonate, silver will bear the dual pressures of a retreat in its financial attribute and a cooling of its industrial attribute, and its short - term performance is often weaker [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, silver may still be mainly in a high - amplitude adjustment, waiting for the re - balance of oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields. If the market gradually shifts from "re - inflation concerns" to "slow growth + return of easing", the elasticity of silver relative to gold is expected to be re - reflected. Currently, silver should be regarded as a high - volatility asset, and attention should be paid to the repair window brought about by the change in macro - economic expectations [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% on March 19, 2026 [46]. - **Precious Metal Index**: On March 19, 2026, the precious metal index was 4048.12, with a daily decline of 4.22%, a 5 - day decline of 7.87%, a 1 - month decline of 5.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.85% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures may rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to trading volume; the bond market gradually has odds, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side [12][13]. - In the black sector, for steel, short - term long positions should take profits at high prices, and the previously sold wide - straddle strategy should be held; for iron ore, the sold wide - straddle strategy should be held, and short - selling operations should be carried out at high prices later; for coking coal and coke, the prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; for ferroalloys, it is recommended to go short on ferrosilicon at high prices, and manganese silicon should be observed; for soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see [15][16][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, copper prices will fluctuate under pressure in the short - term; zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset; lead should be treated with a volatile mindset; lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; industrial silicon fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and operations should be cautious [22][24][26][28][30]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton prices are under short - term adjustment; sugar prices may rebound in a volatile manner; for eggs, it is recommended to go short on rebounds; apples may run strongly; for corn, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices; jujubes may fluctuate weakly; for live pigs, it is advisable to go short on near - month contracts [33][35][39][41][42][43][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the supply reduction risk is significant; fuel oil will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations; plastics may fluctuate strongly in the short - term; for rubber, unilateral operations should be cautious; synthetic rubber may maintain high volatility; methanol may be slightly strong in the short - term; for caustic soda, it is necessary to grasp the market rhythm; asphalt prices follow oil prices; PVC may be strong in the short - term but with callback risks; for the polyester industry chain, a cautiously bullish mindset can be maintained; liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain strong; for pulp, it can be tried to go long at low prices; for logs, the fundamentals are expected to stabilize; for urea, short positions can be arranged according to the trend of chemical futures [46][47][49][50][51][52][54][55][56][57][59][60][61][62]. 3. Key Points by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to escalate. Iran declares the war has entered a "new stage", while the US and Israel make relevant statements. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil and release strategic oil reserves. Iran warns of stronger counter - attacks if energy facilities are attacked again [8]. - Central banks around the world announce interest rate decisions. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Swedish Riksbank all maintain interest rates unchanged. There are expectations of interest rate hikes due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict [9]. - China's central bank deploys key work for the year, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining market stability, and promoting the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms [9]. - China's fiscal revenue and expenditure in January - February show that revenue increases slightly, while expenditure grows faster. The securities trading stamp duty increases significantly [10]. - The US approves a military sales plan worth about $16.5 billion to the UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan. The US Federal debt exceeds $39 trillion, and it is predicted to reach $40 trillion before the mid - term elections [10][11]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is in shock adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index falls 1.39% to 4006.55 points. The short - term may rebound, and attention should be paid to trading volume [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market gradually has odds, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side. The central bank may be preparing for the next interest rate cut by reducing bank liability costs [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel demand is weak, with real - estate sales and new construction data not optimistic, and infrastructure project progress slow. However, steel mills' current order situation is okay, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, with inventory changes and production adjustments [15][16]. - Steel short - term long positions should take profits at high prices, and the previously sold wide - straddle strategy should be held; iron ore's sold wide - straddle strategy should be held, and short - selling operations should be carried out at high prices later [16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply returns to normal, and steel mill iron - making output will increase slightly. In the short - term, coking coal prices may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [18]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are affected by factory pricing and market sentiment. It is recommended to go short on ferrosilicon at high prices, and manganese silicon should be observed [19]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply remains high, and attention should be paid to supply stability. Glass supply has cold - repair and ignition expectations, and the demand side needs to recover. It is advisable to wait and see [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflation pressure, and copper prices will fluctuate under pressure in the short - term. Fundamentally, downstream demand recovers, and inventory starts to decline. In the long - term, the tight supply of ore raw materials supports copper prices [22][23]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Zinc inventory decreases, and prices are treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset. Attention should be paid to the possible rebound after a significant decline [24]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventory reaches a high level, but after the price drops, smelting enterprises are reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream procurement increases. It is advisable to observe the price rebound strength and treat it with a volatile mindset [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply and demand weaken marginally in the short - term, and it may fluctuate weakly under the background of poor macro - sentiment [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and operations should be cautious [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton prices are under short - term adjustment due to increased imports and external conflicts. The global cotton supply and demand situation is complex, and domestic cotton inventory starts to decline. Market expectations for consumption in March and April are high [33][34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Sugar prices may rebound in a volatile manner. Global sugar supply and demand have different expectations, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure. The price is affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply [35][36][38]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg prices may be strong in the short - term, but the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices of high - quality goods may run strongly. With low inventory and increasing demand for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market is expected to be stable and strong [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices are at a relatively high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy - related grain supply [42][43]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may fluctuate weakly. After the Spring Festival, consumption enters the off - season, and high inventory remains [43]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern of live pigs is "supply is strong and demand is weak". The spot price is under pressure, and it is advisable to go short on near - month contracts [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fluctuate due to attacks on energy facilities. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a significant supply reduction risk, but the geopolitical premium may decline [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [47][48]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefin prices may be supported by geopolitical factors and upstream production cuts in the short - term, but the spot market is weak [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports. It is advisable to be cautious in unilateral operations. Attention should be paid to the price difference and the opportunity of selling put options after full - scale tapping [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices are driven by cost and may maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to raw material supply and energy price changes [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol supply and demand improve slightly in the short - term. It may be strong due to geopolitical factors, but there is a possibility of callback if the war eases [52][53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda is driven by supply reduction and export growth, while the decline is driven by high - premium futures and more warehouse receipts. It is necessary to grasp the market rhythm [54]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows oil prices, and the key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - PVC may be strong in the short - term due to production cuts, but there are callback risks if the market sentiment turns bad [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain can be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment [57]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain strong, but relatively weaker than crude oil. The supply risk may be alleviated, and demand is expected to increase [59]. 3.6.12 Pulp - Pulp prices may rebound due to warehouse receipt cancellation and port inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to inventory and price changes of finished products [60]. 3.6.13 Logs - Log demand is recovering, and the price is supported by cost. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory [61]. 3.6.14 Urea - Urea is affected by overseas factors and domestic policies. It is advisable to arrange short positions according to the trend of chemical futures [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 19, 2026, equity index futures dropped, and most commodities declined, with energy and chemicals leading the rise and precious metals plunging [9][11]. - Geopolitical tensions have cut crude oil supplies, and the crude oil market is expected to remain volatile but strong [17][21]. - Venezuela's expected rise in oil production will exert long - term downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, while short - term trends depend on Middle East geopolitical developments [23][26]. - The situation in Iran is severe, and the methanol market has priced in a geopolitical premium. It is expected to trade in a range - bound pattern despite weak fundamentals [31][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - 1.1 Overview - On March 19, equity index futures dropped (IC dropped 2.4%, IH dropped 1.9%), and commodities declined. Energy & Chemicals led the raise, and Precious Metals plunged [9][11]. - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were LPG (up 11.0% with a 1.4% month - on - month increase in open interest), LSFO (up 10.5% with a 10.1% month - on - month increase in open interest), and Methanol (up 8.6% with a 3.1% month - on - month increase in open interest). The top three decliners were Silver (down 10.3% with a 0.8% month - on - month increase in open interest), Platinum (down 7.7% with a 1.9% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Tin (down 6.6% with a 3.2% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [10][12]. 3.2 China Futures - 1.2 Daily Raise 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 19, the crude oil main contract rose 8.5% to 815 yuan/barrel (INE). Geopolitical tensions have cut supplies, and the market faces a supply deficit, with the price outlook being volatile but strong [17][21]. - Middle East geopolitical events include a missile attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City and Iran's warning to retaliate against attacks on its energy infrastructure [18][19]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - On March 19, the main contract of fuel oil rose 6.9% to 5011 yuan/ton (SHFE). Venezuela's expected oil production increase will put long - term downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term trends depend on Middle East geopolitics [23][26]. - Current geopolitical tensions are pushing up fuel oil futures prices, and the medium - to - long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation by natural gas and solar power is a bearish factor [24][25]. 3.2.3 Methanol - On March 19, the main contract of methanol rose 8.6% to 3182 yuan/ton (ZCE). The market is pricing in a geopolitical premium due to the severe situation in Iran and is expected to trade in a range - bound pattern [31][35]. - Domestic methanol prices rose, producer and port inventories decreased, and arrivals increased. Expectations of higher operating rates in the coastal MTO sector boosted demand [32][33][34]. 3.3 Important News - 2.1 Macro News - The People's Bank of China will actively defuse key - area financial risks and maintain the stable operation of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [42][43]. - The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, the second consecutive pause in rate adjustments [42][43]. - The United States and Israel attacked key Iranian natural gas facilities in South Pars and Assaluyeh [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles revolves around the Chinese central bank's commitment to maintaining stability in financial markets, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting global energy security and commodity prices [1][6][7]. Group 1: Financial Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reiterated its intention to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond transactions to ensure ample liquidity and low financing costs [1][7]. - The PBOC aims to align monetary supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations, emphasizing the importance of financial services in key sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [7]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the market pricing in current conflict levels without extreme escalations [2][14]. - Precious metals have experienced fluctuations, with initial declines due to rising oil prices and subsequent rebounds as market conditions evolve. Long-term trends for gold remain bullish due to factors like geopolitical risks and diversification of central bank reserves [2][18]. Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Stock indices have faced downward pressure from geopolitical disturbances, with significant trading volumes observed. The market is transitioning from a "expectation-driven" phase to a "profit-driven" phase as companies begin to report earnings [3][11]. - The financing balance in the stock market has seen an increase, indicating potential investor confidence in established industry leaders as earnings reports are released [3][11]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The pharmaceutical company Kunming Pharmaceutical Group reported a significant decline in revenue and profits for 2025, attributed to complex external environments and internal transformation challenges [9]. - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed signals, with Brazilian soybean production forecasts being adjusted downward despite overall expectations of increased yields [25]. Group 5: Global Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a rebound in major metrics such as industrial output and fixed asset investment, suggesting a positive start to the year for the national economy [12]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its inflation outlook are influencing market expectations, particularly in the commodities sector [12][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, with increased market volatility and uncertainty [1][2][3] - In the financial market, the stock market is under pressure, the bond market is in a state of entanglement, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. In the commodity market, prices of energy and some agricultural products are rising, while prices of precious metals are falling [12][13][18] - Different investment strategies are recommended for various asset classes, such as low - position hedging for equity assets, short - term short - selling for bonds, and waiting for opportunities in other assets [24][28] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is considering reducing the capital adequacy ratio requirements for banks, and the European Central Bank maintains key interest rates. The Bank of England is ready to take action to curb inflation [11][12][13] - Precious metal prices have dropped significantly, but in the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains unchanged. In the short - term, gold prices are in a weak and volatile state [13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Six countries jointly declare to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu says Israel will assist the US in reopening the strait, and Trump promises Israel will not attack Iranian oil and gas facilities [15][16][17] - Market risk appetite stabilizes, and the US dollar index oscillates at a high level [18][19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Israel suspends air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, and Iran attacks Israeli refineries and US military bases [20][21] - The situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the US stock market is under pressure. It is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's general public budget revenue and expenditure in the first two months show certain growth, and the central bank is committed to maintaining the stability of the financial market [23][24] - Due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran and the expectation of interest rate hikes, equity assets face short - term headwinds, and it is recommended to hedge with a low position [24][25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.15 billion yuan on the day [26] - The bond market is in a state of entanglement. It is risky to chase the rise, and the cost - performance of short - selling in the short - term is slightly higher than that of buying [26][27][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market shows mixed price movements. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve [29] - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal are in a state of supply - demand balance. The price fluctuations are mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East [29][30] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's household appliance exports in February show growth, and the production of key steel enterprises in February decreases year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreases slightly [31][32][33] - The inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the de - stocking amplitude in the future is not optimistic [33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 to 20 are expected to reach 1.17 million tons [34] - The upward trend of the oil market has paused. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties, and it needs to wait for policy implementation and pay attention to oil prices [34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - China's corn imports from January to February increase by 207.9% year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support [36] - The corn price is supported in the short - term, but the market has more long - short games. In the long - term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [36][37] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US farmers plan to increase soybean planting in 2026, and the USDA weekly export sales report is lower than expected [38][39] - The soybean meal futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, Sino - US relations, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China [39][40][41] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The US imposes a 109.10% preliminary counter - subsidy tax on Russian palladium [42] - Platinum and palladium prices have dropped. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities in the medium - term [43][44] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the social inventory of lead ingots increases [45] - The lead price is affected by the macro environment. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [45][46] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory decreases [47] - The zinc price is falling, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider buying on dips [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US's net import dependence on key minerals reaches a 30 - year high, and China's refined copper production in the first two months increases by 9% year - on - year [49][51] - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [50][51] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of Albemarle's lithium spodumene is CIF SC62018 dollars per ton, and the Zimbabwean government restricts the export of lithium ore [52][53] - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a significant decline [55][56] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreases [57] - Due to geopolitical risks, the price of fuel oil has an upward risk [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable or increase slightly. The PTA price shows different trends in different contracts [61] - The PTA price is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and there is an upward risk under the continuous geopolitical conflict [62][63] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises decreases [64] - The absolute price of styrene has a high - volatility trend. It is recommended to trade with a light position and be vigilant against potential squeeze risks [65][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The short - term high - level two - way fluctuation of the US dollar against the RMB will continue. It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB will fluctuate in the range of 6.85–6.95. If oil prices fall and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz eases, the RMB is expected to rise to around 6.85. The market's consensus expectation is that the RMB will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in 2026, with the exchange - rate expectation bottoming out in the 6.80 range, and the forecasts converging towards 6.80 in Q1 2027 [33][36][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB options shows an appreciation trend of the US dollar, with the call - end volatility higher than the put - end [4] - The term structure of the 3 - month USDCNH options implied volatility and the implied volatility of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB options with a delta of 5 are presented [6] - The premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's US dollar against the RMB futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are shown [9] Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor fluctuates around 0 [12] 2. Fundamentals and Views Event - Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the conflict may become long - term. The core issues include the policies after Mujtaba came to power, whether civilian facilities will continue to be damaged, and the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The event affects various commodities, and there is still a gap in the oil supply even after the release of oil reserves [20][22] Macro - **US Economy** - Inflation is relatively smooth. The US CPI in February was flat, with service inflation falling and non - service inflation rising. Considering oil prices, the CPI may rise to 3.6% by May [23][24] - The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts has been postponed, and its policy stance has become marginally hawkish. The threshold for interest - rate cuts has been significantly raised, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts within the year has been compressed. The tail - risk has shifted from "no interest - rate cut" to "whether to raise interest rates again" [25][27] - The pace of interest - rate cuts in the US economy has slowed. Employment data is weak, inflation is rising due to oil prices, and economic expectations have been revised upwards, but the real - estate sector needs improvement [28] - **Chinese Economy** - The Chinese economy shows structural differentiation. In the context of the Spring Festival date shift, considering the data from January - February, infrastructure investment has continued to grow due to early - stage policy efforts; commodity retail sales have declined under a high - base effect, but catering revenue has rebounded; the real - estate sector is still under pressure, waiting for price stabilization; the loan situation shows that the household sector is weak while the corporate sector has improved; exports continue to support the economy [29][31] Overall View - Fundamentally, the economic expectation difference is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest - rate difference is neutral, and the uncertainty of trade policies is neutral. The core view is that the US dollar against the RMB is expected to oscillate in the 6.85–6.95 range [36] Expectation - In 2026, the market's consensus expectation is that the RMB will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. The average exchange - rate expectation bottoms out in the 6.80 range, and the institutional game range is very wide (6.50–7.10). In Q1 2027, the forecasts converge towards 6.80 [40]