Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: March 30, 2026 [1] Methanol - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the price of the northwest discounted-to-futures methanol increased by 65, while the power coal futures price remained stable at 801. The import profit and the main contract basis for methanol remained unchanged, and the MTO profit on the futures market remained at -1106 [2] Plastics - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the prices of northeast Asia ethylene and LL in US dollars remained stable. The prices of northeast LL and east China LL increased by 20 and 50 respectively, while the price of east China LD decreased by 250. The import profit remained unchanged, the main futures price increased by 101, the two - oil inventory decreased by 4, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 706 [11] Propylene and PP - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 430, and the price of northeast Asia propylene increased by 20. The price of east China PP increased by 60, while the price of north China PP decreased by 42. The export profit remained unchanged, the main futures price increased by 193, the two - oil inventory decreased by 4, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 5416 [18] PVC - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the price of northwest calcium carbide remained stable, and the price of Shandong caustic soda increased by 15. The price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in east China decreased by 50, while other prices remained unchanged [19][20]

Group 1: Impact of Middle East Conflict on China's Energy Supply - The direct impact of the Middle East conflict on China's energy supply is estimated to be around 4-5.4% of total energy consumption, which is significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea[2] - Approximately 30% of China's crude oil imports in 2025 are expected to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, compared to 54% for Japan and 63% for South Korea[11] - China's energy consumption structure shows that oil and gas account for about 30% of total energy, which is lower than that of developed Asian countries[12] Group 2: Long-term Economic Implications - If energy shortages persist for an extended period, China's economy, despite its resilience, will still be affected[3] - A prolonged energy supply gap could depress global growth, negatively impacting China's external demand, with potential GDP growth reductions of 0.1-0.3 percentage points if oil prices rise to $80 per barrel[63] - Trade conditions may weaken, affecting corporate revenues and profit margins, as a significant portion of imported oil is used for processing and re-export[66] Group 3: Global Energy Transition and China's Competitive Advantage - The ongoing conflict may accelerate the global energy transition, potentially enhancing China's manufacturing advantages in the long term[4] - China's energy transition has shown positive trends, with renewable energy costs entering a downward cycle, which could further support export demand for "new three items"[4] - By 2024, China's oil refining capacity is expected to reach 18%, the highest globally, indicating a strong position in the energy market[53]

Summary of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal price center for 2026 is expected to rise, with the average price of 5,500 kcal coal at North Port projected to exceed 800 RMB/ton, up from approximately 700 RMB/ton in 2025. The summer peak may reach 850-900 RMB/ton [2][7]. - The chemical sector has seen significant price increases driven by geopolitical factors since March 2026, with expectations of substantial year-on-year profit growth in the first half of 2026, confirming profitability not lower than 2025 [2]. Key Financial and Operational Highlights - In 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 8.52 billion RMB, with the chemical sector contributing 1.58 billion RMB. The average sales cost of coal was 320 RMB/ton, a decrease of approximately 4.2% from 2024 [3]. - The average selling price of coal in 2025 was 513 RMB/ton, down 122 RMB from 635 RMB/ton in 2024 [3]. - The company plans to increase coal production by 4-8 million tons in 2026, with an annual average increase of 10 million tons planned from 2026 to 2028, aiming for a total raw coal capacity of 300 million tons by 2031 [2][4]. Cost Control and Profit Distribution - The cost control target for 2026 is a further reduction of 3% in coal costs and over 30 RMB/ton reduction in chemical products (methanol, acetic acid) costs, primarily through incremental dilution and expense compression [2][4]. - The dividend policy has been adjusted to distribute 50% of net profit after deducting statutory reserves, with a historical payout ratio exceeding 60%. A share buyback plan of 200-500 million RMB will be implemented in 2026 [2][4]. Asset Management and Capital Expenditure - Significant contributions from asset disposals, with the transfer of New Tai Coal Company shares recovering 3.05 billion RMB, expected to confirm a net profit of approximately 2.7 billion RMB in Q1 2026 [2][7]. - The capital expenditure budget for 2026 is set at 19.8 billion RMB, maintaining a stable trend. The Inner Mongolia 800,000-ton olefin project is expected to commence production in October 2026 [6][12]. Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company anticipates a significant increase in chemical product profitability in 2026, with measures in place to achieve cost reduction targets [5]. - The company is focused on optimizing asset management during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans to dispose of underperforming mines to enhance financial flexibility and resource allocation [8]. - Production growth is expected to be steady, with several key mining projects on track for completion, contributing to an increase of approximately 30-35 million tons in total production by 2028 [8]. Additional Insights - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a 10 billion RMB decline in profits, primarily due to increased costs and a lack of contribution from the chemical sector, which is expected to recover in 2026 [9]. - Northwest Mining's performance commitment for 2025-2027 requires a cumulative net profit of no less than 7.1 billion RMB, with expectations of improved profitability in 2026 and 2027 based on rising coal prices [10][11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has heightened inflation expectations, leading to increased commodity prices due to supply shocks. [1] - **Commodity Focus**: Key commodities include gold (due to its safe-haven status), lithium/tungsten (driven by demand from new energy and military sectors), and electrolytic aluminum (with 15% of capacity facing interruption risks). [1][3] - **Coal Market**: The coal industry is entering a peak season from April to June, with potential price increases for thermal coal reaching 1,000 CNY/ton due to supply-demand imbalances. [1][10] - **Oil Supply Gap**: A significant oil supply gap of 7-8 million barrels per day is anticipated, with Asian refineries facing shortages by mid-April. [1][2] Key Investment Insights - **Gold Market Dynamics**: Recent fluctuations in gold prices reflect a shift from war risk to inflation fears, with significant selling pressure from the Turkish central bank. [3][4] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Risks**: Attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain pose a serious threat to global supply, with potential disruptions affecting 15% of electrolytic aluminum production. [4] - **Oil Shipping Sector**: Oil shipping stocks are currently benefiting from short-term supply shortages due to geopolitical tensions, but long-term demand for inventory replenishment remains a key factor not fully priced in. [5] - **Container Shipping Market**: The geopolitical situation has led to increased risks in the Red Sea, affecting shipping routes and supporting container shipping rates. [6] Sector-Specific Developments - **Coal Sector Recommendations**: Companies like Yancoal Australia are recommended due to their strong correlation with coal prices and minimal domestic price control risks. [11] - **Airline Sector Outlook**: A moderate increase in aviation fuel prices is expected, which may positively impact airline stock valuations. [7][8] - **Chemical Industry Trends**: Despite high oil prices, the chemical sector shows signs of improvement, with specific focus on cost-effective alternative technologies. [19][20] Additional Considerations - **Debt Market Outlook**: Short-term credit bonds are favored, while long-term bonds are advised to be monitored for potential opportunities. [12][15] - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach towards inflation and geopolitical risks, with a focus on maintaining balanced portfolios. [13][15] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of geopolitical tensions on various sectors and investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical industry is entering a destocking phase, with the European energy crisis leading to the permanent exit of some overseas facilities. China's production capacity is expected to dominate the global market due to its scale and safety advantages, with a chemical bull market anticipated to start in 2025 [1][3] - The coal chemical sector is showing significant substitution effects, with acetic acid prices rising to 3,500 RMB/ton. Wanhua Chemical's MDI business benefits from the impact of European natural gas costs, and its new material lithium iron phosphate business is expected to reach a capacity of 800,000 tons by 2026 [1][4][6] Company Performance - Major refining companies like Hengli and Rongsheng are expected to see over 70% and 100% year-on-year earnings growth in Q1 2026, respectively, due to benefits from crude oil inventory gains and product price increases [1][12] - Satellite Chemical's single-ton ethylene profit has doubled to 400 RMB, indicating a clear trend of rising volume and price [1][12] - The polyester filament supply-demand pattern is improving, with net new capacity growth expected to be only 3% by 2026, compared to a demand growth rate of 5-6% [1][20] Market Dynamics - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing differentiation, with calcium carbide PVC benefiting from high oil prices, and prices expected to rebound to 6,500 RMB/ton [1][15] - The refrigerant industry is affected by geopolitical conflicts, leading to a "low first, high second" demand pattern for the year [1][33] Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is recommended for active allocation, as most mainstream sub-industries have released risks, and the fundamental landscape is improving. The current bull market is expected to exceed market expectations in terms of height and duration [3] - Companies like New Fengming and Tongkun are highlighted as potential beneficiaries in the polyester filament sector due to their expected performance in Q1 2026 [1][22] Specific Product Insights - In the pesticide sector, products like Mancozeb and Glyphosate are highlighted due to supply constraints in India, which may benefit domestic exports [2][10] - The upstream soda ash industry is expected to benefit from the global energy system restructuring, which will boost demand for photovoltaic glass and upstream soda ash [9] Financial Projections - Wanhua Chemical's MDI business is expected to see margin improvements, while its new materials business is projected to become a significant revenue contributor by 2026 [5][6] - The chlor-alkali sector's leading companies are expected to report profits near breakeven in Q1 2026, with new orders' profit release more likely in Q2 [17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the chemical industry is cautiously optimistic, with several companies poised for significant growth due to favorable market conditions and strategic positioning. The focus on destocking, geopolitical impacts, and evolving supply-demand dynamics will shape the investment landscape moving forward [1][3][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of oil prices on various sectors, particularly focusing on the Chinese economy and A-share market performance amid geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Thresholds**: The threshold for oil price impact on A-share profitability is set at $120 per barrel, with limited effects observed in the $80-$100 range due to China's energy structure, where oil and gas account for only 25%-30% of consumption [1][2][3]. 2. **Economic Conditions**: Current economic conditions are characterized by low inventory and capacity cycles, lacking the basis for stagflation. Rising oil prices may lead to a positive cycle in sectors like construction and chemicals through price recovery [1][3]. 3. **Supply Chain Resilience**: The actual supply gap from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 6 million barrels per day, which can be mitigated by alternative pipelines and strategic reserves, offsetting about 60% of the supply disruption [1][7]. 4. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: The petrochemical sector is expected to see improved profits in Q2 2026, benefiting from the sale of high-priced products against previously low-cost inventories [1][8]. 5. **Metal Sector Dynamics**: The metal sector remains driven by structural demand growth from AI and new energy, with aluminum and copper showing significant investment potential [1][9]. 6. **Shipping Industry Outlook**: The oil shipping industry is entering a high prosperity cycle, with capacity utilization exceeding thresholds, and a return of gray market capacity to the compliant market could enhance performance and valuations [1][12]. 7. **Chemical Industry Focus**: The chemical sector is shifting towards AI-driven new materials, with companies like Lianrui New Materials and Yake Technology positioned to benefit from downstream expansion [1][14][15]. Additional Important Content 1. **Investment Opportunities**: Key investment directions include: - Price spread expansion in the energy and chemical sectors due to rising oil prices [5][6]. - Capital goods benefiting from global energy transition and safety demands, particularly in electric equipment and new energy sectors [6]. - Opportunities in cyclical sectors driven by PPI increases, particularly in construction materials and steel [6][8]. 2. **Geopolitical Impacts**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to have a prolonged impact on global oil supply, with recovery anticipated to take 2-3 months, affecting logistics and production in the chemical sector [7][8]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: Concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy tightening due to rising oil prices are seen as somewhat overstated, with historical precedents indicating that central banks respond to actual inflation data rather than expectations [4][10]. 4. **Long-term Trends**: The transition from traditional cyclical demand to growth driven by AI and new energy is expected to continue, with significant implications for metal demand and supply dynamics [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of oil prices, economic conditions, and sector-specific dynamics in the current market landscape.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The complex and volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East causes significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices. The domestic methanol port inventory has decreased this week, with a significant reduction in imports expected from March to April. Some port olefin plants downstream have resumed operation. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog **Market Review** - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 139 yuan to 3381 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose by 95 yuan to 3360 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 44,103 lots to 454,000 lots, and short positions increased by 18,547 lots to 422,000 lots [2] **Important Information** - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 48.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 115.55 tons, a decrease of 10.62 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in the East China region decreased by 8.47 tons, and the inventory in the South China region decreased by 2.15 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China is 43.50 tons, a decrease of 5.04 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of methanol enterprises in the Northwest are 4.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74 tons. The orders to be shipped of sample enterprises are 28.39 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The olefin operating rate is 86.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 45.6%, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%; the MTBE operating rate is 69.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [2] - **Imports**: In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest, at 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - **Oil Prices**: The continuous blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has increased supply risks, and the market doubts the prospects of the US - Iran peace talks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 05 contract rose 5.16 US dollars/barrel to 99.64 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.56 US dollars/barrel to 112.57 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract rose 12.1 to 740.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 19.8 to 760.3 yuan/barrel at night [2] **Market Logic** - The complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East causes international crude oil to fluctuate sharply at high levels. The domestic methanol port inventory has decreased this week, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March to April. Some port olefin plants downstream have resumed operation. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the methanol price fluctuates strongly [2] **Trading Strategy** - Hold long positions at low levels [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities including coal, methanol, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural products, considering factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: After most domestic coal mines resumed production, they maintained normal production, but some mines in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi had production limitations, resulting in a slight decline in output. The overall customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained high, and in the short - term, prices were likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production was at a high level, downstream demand recovered, port inventories continued to decline, and imports decreased significantly. The market was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [2]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: There were uncertainties in the market's interest - rate hike expectations and the appointment of the Fed chairman. Silver passively followed the movement of gold and was expected to fluctuate within a range in the medium - term [4]. - **Gold**: The war situation seemed to have escalated, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. Gold had a short - term rebound demand and was expected to have a wide - range fluctuation pattern in the medium - term [4]. Industrial Metals - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts affected the shipping rhythm of overseas mines, and the high oil price increased shipping costs. The overall supply - demand of iron ore was in a state where the pressure was difficult to be traded. Market sentiment was affected by conflicts, and the liquidity of some varieties was a key factor affecting prices [5]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: The peak - season demand for rebar was expected to be limited, the supply pressure increased with the resumption of blast furnaces, and the inventory was relatively high. The futures price faced the pressure of a high - level decline [5]. - **Aluminum**: Two major aluminum companies in the Middle East were attacked, increasing the market's concern about supply interruption. Although the domestic supply was relatively stable, aluminum prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The long - term cooperation plan pointed to an increase in supply, but it had limited impact on the current market. The supply was still tight, and the demand was picking up. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. - **Nickel**: The postponement of the windfall tax implementation provided short - term support. The supply tightening expectation was alleviated, and the demand was expected to release further. Nickel prices were expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Alkali (Soda Ash)**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight decline. The demand was general, and the inventory was high. Prices were expected to be slightly weaker in the short - term [14]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The short - term operation should be cautious. In the medium - term, the longer the war lasted, the stronger the upward driving force for oil prices [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply shortage was not effectively alleviated. If the terminal consumption recovered, the inventory was expected to decline, and it was advisable to take long positions at low levels [10]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply might be tightened due to geopolitical conflicts, and low - sulfur fuel oil production declined. It was advisable to take long positions at low levels [12]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The market's attention to the US biodiesel policy increased, and the export of Malaysian palm oil was strong. The domestic high - inventory situation suppressed prices. Palm oil was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The future supply of rapeseed was expected to increase, and the market was bearish. Rapeseed meal prices were expected to decline in the short - term [8]. - **Pig**: The pig price was weak and stable, with limited demand growth. The futures price of the far - month contract was stable, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and the reduction of sows [6]. Others - **Five - year Treasury Bond**: The industrial enterprise profit data was better than expected, which was negative for the bond market. The bond market was expected to fluctuate and wait for policy guidance [7]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure of LLDPE was expected to be alleviated, the downstream demand was rising, but the high price suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm. Plastic prices were expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to hold short positions moderately at high prices; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is suggested to wait and see; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][19][20][22][23][25] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; rubber is recommended to be long on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading; soda ash is advised to short at high prices [1][26][28][29][31][32][34][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and red dates are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][41] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; for eggs, be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; soybean meal contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950; for oils and fats, reduce long positions gradually [1][43][45][46][47][48] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, causing price fluctuations in various assets [5][15][17][22][23] - Different industries and commodities have different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by changes in demand or cost factors [9][15][25][34] - Investors should pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical events, macroeconomic data, and industry - specific policies when making investment decisions [27][35][46] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Iran - US situation, it may trade sideways in the short term but is bullish in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end has limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair. Overall, it is expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is rising, and inventory is accumulating. It is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: The price is at a low static valuation, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [10] - **Glass**: The cost hype has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, it is under pressure at high levels. Although there is support from domestic consumption, it still has downward risks. Short positions can be held moderately at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by the situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to buy [17] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand are complex, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. It is suggested to wait and see [19] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to trade in a range [20][21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but there is support from exports. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [26][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export and downstream replenishment, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Be cautious about chasing up [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [31] - **Rubber**: Affected by cost and inventory, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is supported by agriculture. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [34] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to be bullish with range trading [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure. Short at high prices [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is strong. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [39] - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price is stable, and the market is expected to trade sideways [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. Contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [43][44] - **Eggs**: The price is rising steadily, but be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts [45] - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range [46] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by multiple factors, contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: The price is at a high level and is expected to trade sideways. Reduce long positions gradually [48][49][50][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are still in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues. For coking coal and coke, the short - term price rebound lacks sufficient fundamental support, and the long - term outlook for coking coal is optimistic. For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate, and for polysilicon, the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom. For glass and soda ash, both are expected to show a narrow - range shock pattern [2][5][10][14][17][20][23][25] Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,124 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, a net increase of 1,525 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0762 million lots, a net decrease of 91,050 lots. The spot market prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 539,561 tons, a net increase of 5,882 tons. The position of the main contract was 919,500 lots, a net decrease of 42,727 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The new construction starts still showed a large decline in the context of the low base in the same period last year, indicating that the recovery momentum of the real - estate investment side is still insufficient. The short - term support from real estate for steel demand is limited, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils has recovered rapidly, production has increased slightly, and inventory has entered the destocking stage. Rebar shows both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in inventory, presenting a neutral overall performance [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-5.00), and the position changed by -20,782 lots to 387,200 lots. The weighted position was 900,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 22.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.74% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas ore shipments continued to rise. Australian shipments increased to a relatively high level, while Brazilian shipments declined slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output increased by 29,400 tons to 231,090 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and the hot - metal output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to improve slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 27, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) closed up 2.27% at 6,580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6,350 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.50% at 6,012 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton to the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated at a high level, reaching a new high of over 6,700 yuan/ton during the week, and then declined, with a weekly increase of 184 yuan/ton or +2.87%. The ferrosilicon price rose at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated downward, with a weekly increase of 96 yuan/ton or +1.61% [7][8] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - held non - ferrous metals and short - held black metals. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the price of alloys. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market for both is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 27, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1,219.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had different premiums to the futures. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.51% at 1,752.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang also had different premiums or discounts to the futures. Last week, the coking coal price rose sharply at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 64 yuan/ton or +5.29%. The coke price followed the coking coal price up at the beginning of the week and then declined, with a weekly increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or +1.39% [12][13] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the coal price. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There is not enough fundamental support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. It is recommended to take short - term long - side operations or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about the coking coal price in the medium - to - long term [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of -1.26% (-110). The weighted contract position changed by -1,903 lots to 368,620 lots. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged. For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of +0.39% (+140). The weighted contract position changed by +1,047 lots to 52,531 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [16][18] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with insufficient improvement in demand to drive prices. Polysilicon continues to be in a negative - feedback adjustment state, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [17][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1,036 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.99% (-21). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32,418 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 45,523 lots. For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.53% (-19). The spot price in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (-1.09%), with an increase in heavy - soda ash inventory and a decrease in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 12,455 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 26,503 lots [22][24] Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market performed poorly last week. The spot trading was light, and the terminal demand recovery was less than expected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the main contract reference range of 1,015 - 1,050 yuan/ton. The soda ash market is in a game between short - term supply tightening and weak demand, with prices showing a narrow - range adjustment. The main contract reference range is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [23][25]