Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro Outlook**: China's post - holiday market is active with increased trading volume and risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to see better performance from IC than IH. The bond market has limited short - term odds and should be traded with a band strategy. Global economic factors such as US - China trade talks, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical events impact the market. The smartphone and automotive industries face challenges, while the real estate market shows signs of recovery in some areas [7][14][15]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate, and the future of these markets depends on demand. Some commodities like lithium carbonate are expected to be bullish in the short - term, while others like沪锌 and沪铅 may continue to be under pressure [16][25][29]. 3. Summary by Category **Macro News** - **Trade and Policy**: The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations is upcoming. The central bank supports cross - border RMB inter - bank financing. The RMB has appreciated rapidly against the US dollar [7]. - **Resource and Energy**: Zimbabwe bans the export of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, which impacts the lithium market. The third - round of indirect talks between Iran and the US ends, with significant differences remaining [7][8]. - **Financial and Market**: Compensation for investors affected by the valuation adjustment of Guotou Silver LOF starts. IDC predicts a 12.9% year - on - year decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026. Multiple smartphone brands plan price adjustments. The Chinese brand passenger vehicle sales decline in January 2026. The real estate market in some areas shows signs of recovery [8][9]. **Macro Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market is active. It is expected that IC will perform better than IH due to different sector performances and increased risk appetite [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is weak after the "Shanghai Seven" policy for the property market. Without interest - rate cut expectations, it is difficult for bond yields to decline further. Attention should be paid to the government's monetary and fiscal policies [15]. **Black Metals** - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The current supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is unlikely to be a large price change. The future market depends on the start of steel demand. Iron ore supply is abundant [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, it is not recommended to chase long positions after a large increase. Silicon iron long positions are recommended. Attention should be paid to the start - up of semi - coke plants [20]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and demand [21]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices will oscillate due to unstable macro - environment and inventory accumulation. In the long - term, tight raw material supply supports prices [23]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and previous short positions should be held [25]. - **Lead**: Social lead inventories are at a 5 - month high. Previous short positions can be held, but lead consumption may improve in March [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, it is expected to be bullish due to increased demand and supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pull - backs [29]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will have a wide - range oscillation. Caution is advised in operation [31]. **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Domestically, it is expected to be bullish, and low - buying and rolling operations are recommended. Attention should be paid to the demand after the holiday and international factors [34]. - **Sugar**: There is a short - term supply surplus, but the domestic sugar price may rebound due to restocking demand. It is in a low - level oscillation [35]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the spot price is weak, and the futures price will oscillate. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and old - hen culling [37]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices will remain stable, and the overall price will oscillate in a range [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. After the holiday, corn trading has not fully recovered, and there are supply pressures [39]. - **Jujubes**: Currently, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the sales in the sales area and the mentality of buyers [40]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the market has a supply - demand imbalance with more supply. It is not recommended to short near - month futures contracts [41]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply. The upside space is limited [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the short - term focus is on the impact of oil prices dominated by geopolitics [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure but are slightly supported by rising raw material prices. An oscillating and weakening trend is expected [45]. - **Rubber**: In March, the downstream export orders are good, and there is support at the cost side. Caution is advised when chasing long positions [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is still room for decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in butadiene and downstream devices [47]. - **Methanol**: The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there may be a price correction. Attention should be paid to port inventory and Iranian supply [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and the impact of warehouse receipts [49]. - **Asphalt**: It follows oil price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to restocking demand after winter storage in March [51]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it may be bullish, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. Caution is advised [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the short - term, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and prices follow oil price fluctuations. Consider long - short spreads for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: In the absence of further geopolitical escalation, the main contract is expected to be bearish [54]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is at a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [56]. - **Logs**: The forward spot price is supported by cost, and attention should be paid to the impact of new delivery rules and market sentiment [57]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the difference between agricultural and industrial demand [57].

证券研究报告 大势较为稳定，行业配置风格转向上游 从国内市场来看，在春节流 动性回流的驱使下，大盘宽基指数均呈现稳定回升的态势，截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，市场成交额也较春节前低点有近 30%的回升，市场流动性仍 然较为宽松。往后看，参考往年春节至两会期间及两会后的日历效应，大 盘整体稳定的趋势仍将维持一段时间。从行业层面看，两会确定全年经济 增长目标，更多稳增长政策出台，顺周期板块上涨概率更高且平均收益也 相对较高。因此，近期市场风格或从小盘、成长逐步转向大盘、价值，关 注上游行业。 从海外环境来看，春节期间海外市场表现较为强劲也给 A 股市场提供了良好的外部环境。海外 AI 叙事的瑕疵被持续提起，尽管长 期的宽松方向较为明确，但市场定价长远的宽松不妨碍短期市场对 HALO 交易的认同程度较高，因此风格上更多集中于涨价品，A 股交易 也因此受到一定程度的影响。 从短期看，我们认为海外交易与国内日历 效应可能同步呼应，涨价品相对应的油气、有色、化工、公用等中上游方 向有望成为近期的主线，同时，AI 叙事中较为明晰的科技类别硬件涨价 品也有望进一步保持交易热度，如存储等。在流动性宽松进一步明确后， 市 ...

长安汽车 数智工厂 2月26日下午，市政府新闻办举行"奋进十五五·建设现代化新重庆"系列主题首场新闻发布会，正式对外公布《重庆市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 纲要》（以下简称《纲要》）。市发展改革委党组书记、主任高健携相关负责人，全面解读重庆"十五五"发展目标、重点任务，从民生保障到产业升级，从 区域协调到青年发展，每一项部署都紧贴市民生活、关乎城市未来，为现代化新重庆建设擘画了清晰路径。 在推动市域内区域协调发展方面，未来五年，支持中心城区打造高质量发展主引擎，争取地区生产总值超过2万亿元。未来五年，重庆将以更大力度稳定和 扩大就业，力争新增城镇就业325万人以上。 民生优先 7项民生指标占比近30% 高健表示，"十五五"期间，重庆将把"人民至上"贯穿始终，民生福祉类指标达7项，占全部主要指标近30%，是历届五年规划中数量最多的一次。从"一老一 小"到就业住房，每一项都暖到群众心坎里。 针对"一老一小"痛点，市发展改革委党组成员、副主任傅倩倩在回应记者提问时介绍，重庆将加快建设婚育友好型社会和老年友好型社会，到"十五五"末， 城市社区托育机构覆盖率和养老机构护理型床位占比均力争超过80%，切实减轻家庭 ...

□ 上海二手房成交量连续三个月保持在2万套以上。中原地产数据显示，2026年1月，上海二手住宅成交 2.03万套，同比增加26.69% □ 央行上海总部披露的1月金融数据显示，住户部门贷款增加逾333亿元，其中，短期贷款增加17.51亿 元，中长期贷款增加315.75亿元。这反映出居民住房按揭需求已有所回暖 上海楼市新政"沪七条"落地首日，楼市闻风而动，银行房贷业务咨询量明显增多。 据悉，"沪七条"主要包括降低购房门槛、放宽购房套数、提高公积金贷款额度、优化房产税政策等举 措。例如，新政明确，非沪籍居民社保缴满一年即可购房，且允许持有满五年的居住证即有购房资格。 沪上多家银行一线人士向上海证券报记者反馈称，房贷咨询量较新政前显著增长，部分购房者已开始申 请贷款。 新政之下的二手房市场已有波澜。记者了解到：一方面，有房东借新政"东风"加快挂牌节奏；另一方 面，也有房东选择提价或暂缓出售。"最近我负责的房源，有房东重新挂牌，也有多套下架，还有两套 涨价。"上述宝山区中介人士称，不少房东心态发生转变，认为市场预期改善，可以等待更合适的成交 时点。 从近期上海二手房交易数据来看，楼市修复行情延续，二手房成交量连续三个 ...

今天一开盘，市场情绪就显得有些犹豫。上证指数在小幅低开后，一度下探到4127点附近，随后才在买盘的推动下慢慢回升。整个上午，指数基本在水面下 方弱势震荡。转折点出现在午后，指数一度翻红，但上涨的力量似乎后劲不足，很快又被打压回来，最终在涨跌边缘徘徊收盘。最终，三大指数涨跌互现， 上证指数微跌0.01%，深圳成指上涨0.19%，创业板指则下跌了0.29%。单从指数层面看，这确实是一个标准得不能再标准的"震荡整理日"，波动幅度很小， 多空双方似乎达成了某种短暂的平衡。 除了内资的调仓，备受关注的北向资金（外资）今天也呈现净流出的状态。虽然流出的绝对金额可能不大，但其选择也与内资形成了部分共振。外资的流向 往往对市场情绪和部分权重股有直接影响，它们的净流出也在一定程度上加剧了金融等板块的压力。 面对这样分裂的行情，市场中的观点自然也出现了分歧。乐观者看到的是科技主线的强势崛起和成交量的活跃，认为这是新行情主线确立的标志，资金正在 从旧阵地转向新战场，为后续上涨积蓄力量。而谨慎者则担忧权重股的持续疲软会最终拖垮市场情绪，并且"放量滞涨"在技术分析上常被视为一个需要警惕 的信号，说明在当前位置，卖压沉重，上攻阻力很大。 ...

春节刚过，上海楼市就迎来重磅消息。2月25日，上海市住房和城乡建设管理委员会等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整上海房地产政策的通知》，推 出七条新举措，被业内称为"沪七条"。这轮政策调整力度之大、覆盖面之广，堪称近年来上海楼市最重磅的调控新政。 一、限购政策迎来三大突破最引人关注的是非沪籍购房门槛的大幅降低。新政明确，非本市户籍居民购买外环内住房，社保或个税缴纳年限从原来的5年缩 短至1年。这意味着，只要在上海连续工作满1年，就能获得在外环内购房的资格。 这个数字创下上海公积金贷款额度的历史新高。以总价500万元的房产计算，公积金贷款占比可达65%，大幅降低购房者的商业贷款压力。二套房公积金政 策也同步优化，允许已结清首套公积金贷款的家庭再次申请。 三、政策背后的调控逻辑从政策内容看，本轮调整呈现出精准施策的特点。缩短社保年限主要惠及新市民群体，公积金优化重点支持刚需和改善需求，多子 女家庭政策则呼应了人口发展战略。 对于在上海打拼多年的"新上海人"，政策更加友好。缴纳社保或个税满3年及以上的非沪籍家庭，可在现有政策基础上，在外环内增购1套住房。而持《上海 市居住证》满5年以上的群体，则可以直接在全市范围内 ...

当天上午9点04分，富时中国A50指数期货在夜盘收涨0.3%的基础上低开，但很快转为上涨0.26%。这看起来是一个平静的开局。然而，开盘后不到一个小 时，情况急转直下。到了上午10点10分左右，A50期指盘中跌幅已经超过1%。从上涨0.52%到下跌1.13%，它在短时间内完成了一次幅度接近1.8%的跳水。 而且，这次跳水发生的时间点非常精准，几乎与港股市场开盘后的走势同步。 更让人困惑的是，即使后来A股大盘一度翻红，A50期指依然没有拉回来。盘中大多数时间，它都在下跌0.90%左右震荡。从更长的周期来看，这个代表中 国核心资产的期指已经持续下跌了近两个月。据市场数据显示，其价格从15670点附近一路下滑至14664点，累计跌幅达到6.5%。这种持续的阴跌，让很多 通过它来观察A股前景的投资者感到不安。 几乎在同一时间，香港股市上演了更加惨烈的一幕。恒生指数在上午开盘时还上涨了1.05%，国企指数上涨0.53%，恒生科技指数上涨0.52%。但这仅仅是昙 花一现。开盘价成了全天的最高点，随后指数一路向下，几乎没有任何像样的反弹。收盘时，恒生指数报26381.02点，下跌384.7点，跌幅1.44%；国企指数 下跌 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that geopolitical disturbances and tariff negotiations are reinforcing the price increase logic for mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and agriculture [7][10][34] - The recent geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. tariff disputes and the situation in Iran, have significantly supported precious metal prices, indicating potential price increases for strategic metals [10][12][15] - The report highlights the establishment of a national unified electricity market in China, which is expected to enhance the multi-dimensional value of electricity resources, with a timeline for market implementation set for 2027 [12][15] Group 2 - The real estate market shows stable trends during the Spring Festival, but the cyclical turning point remains to be observed, with expectations of policy easing and improvements in core city markets [13][15][34] - Consumer demand is diversifying, with increased foot traffic during the Spring Festival indicating a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model, supported by technological advancements and high levels of openness [14][15] - The report notes that mid-cap blue chips present a favorable risk profile, with overall market risks being manageable despite some fluctuations in short-term sentiment across various indices [16][34] Group 3 - The report identifies a trend of short-term volatility in hot sectors, with mid-cap blue chips showing resilience, while other sectors like basic chemicals and power grid equipment maintain stable medium-term uncertainties [21][25][31] - The analysis of trading behavior indicates a shift from strong trends to fluctuations in previously high-performing sectors, with only the power equipment sector maintaining its trend [21][25][31] - The report suggests that the overall market sentiment is gradually improving, with mid-cap indices showing slight recoveries in short-term emotions, while uncertainties in the mid-term remain relatively stable [16][25][34]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 1.03%、上证综指环比下降 0.01%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.19%、创业板指环比下降 0.29%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.65%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.76%。 市场风格：中盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.71%、大盘价值环比下降 0.64%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.89%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.46%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.55%、小盘价值环比下降 0.29%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 691.88 亿元，环比 减少 7.81%；万得全 A 总成交额为 25566.39 亿元，环比增长 3.05%；沪深两 市主力净流出 300.45 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 1.30bp 至 1.83%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.90 元，环比昨日下降 0.56%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 218.78 元，环比 下降 0.81%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 121.74 元，环比下降 1.04%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 134.76 元，环比下 ...

从宏观经济、政策走向、产业变迁，2026年十大宏观趋势展望报告描绘出一幅有关2026年中国经济的全景画面。以下是十大宏观趋势的阐释。 趋势一，2026年，我国经济会持续处在 "修复式增长" 阶段，房地产的走向依旧是影响整体局面的关键变量。 报告把当前地产周期界定为 "L型" 筑底，这表明它既不会持续深度下探，也不容易出现V型反转，而是迈入一个逐步稳定的平台期。需要留意的是，房地产 已不再是最主要的经济增长动力，其政策重点正从以往的规模扩张转向构建 "新发展模式"，像保障性住房建设以及城市更新。但这并不表明地产就不再具 备重要性了，它的实际价值存在于"稳定"之中，房价预期的趋于稳定，不但能够降低对经济的直接负面影响，而且还能够修复众多家庭的财富感受以及消费 信心。从这样的一个视角来进行观察，房地产实现软着陆依旧是2026年经济稳定修复的关键基础。 趋势二，物价将会温和地回升起来，名义GDP的增速有希望从4%反弹到5%，而这对于企业利润以及居民收入得到改善而言是至关重要的。 过往几年间，我们已然习惯了处于低通胀乃至物价下行的状况之中，然而这实际上对企业的利润范围造成了挤压，并且也致使大家产生了"钱愈发难以赚 取" ...