Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report, but a short - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Core Viewpoints - Overseas ore supply is improving, and ore prices may face pressure in the fourth quarter. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to perform strongly. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for macro - sentiment resonance. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut policy [12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - As of September 5, the alumina index decreased by 6.27% to 3005 yuan/ton compared to July 31. In late August, the bullish sentiment in commodities ebbed, and the supply - surplus structure drove the alumina futures price down [11] - Alumina production remained at a high level, with continuous inventory accumulation and looser warehouse receipts, causing the spot price to decline. As of September 5, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased significantly compared to the end of July [11] - As of September 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 275,000 tons to 4.357 million tons. The futures warehouse receipts and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse also increased. As the spot market loosened, the warehouse receipt registration volume gradually recovered [11] 2. Period - Spot End - Futures price: As of September 5, the alumina index decreased by 6.27% to 3005 yuan/ton compared to July 31. The supply - surplus structure led to a downward trend [21] - Basis: Pessimistic sentiment drove the futures price down, and the basis continued to rise. As of September 5, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price [21] - Calendar spread: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable, recording - 12 yuan/ton as of September 5 [21] 3. Raw Material End - Bauxite price: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of September 5, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite increased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 74.5 dollars/ton, while that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton. Short - term support for ore prices exists due to reduced arrivals [25] - Bauxite production: In August 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [27] - Bauxite import: In July 2025, bauxite imports were 20.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% and a month - on - month increase of 10.75%. The cumulative imports in the first seven months were 123.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.69% [29] - Guinea bauxite import: In July 2025, China imported 1594 tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 51.98% and a month - on - month increase of 19.64%. The cumulative imports in the first seven months were 95.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.14% [32] - Bauxite inventory: As of August 29, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory was 1.192 million tons, and China's port inventory was 2.865 million tons. In August, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 160,000 tons to 5.33 million tons, with Shanxi and Henan seeing inventory decreases [34][36] 4. Supply End - Alumina production: In July 2025, alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99% [39] - Operating capacity: In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. The smelting profit recovered, and new capacity was gradually put into operation [42] - Newly - added capacity: In 2025, the total planned newly - added capacity was 13.3 million tons. Some projects in the first half of the year were successfully put into operation, and the Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter. The Dongfang Hope project may be postponed to January 2026 [44][45] - Production profit: Alumina spot prices declined, squeezing producers' profits. On September 5, Guangxi's production profit was 510 yuan/ton, and Shandong's profits using Australian and Guinea ores were 242 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore could achieve profits of 22 yuan/ton and 133 yuan/ton [47] 5. Import and Export - In July 2025, alumina had a net export of 103,500 tons. The import volume increased from 1.013 million tons to 1.259 million tons, and the export volume increased from 1.71 million tons to 2.294 million tons. The cumulative net export in the first seven months was 1.1786 million tons [12][50] - As of September 5, the Australian FOB price decreased by 21 dollars/ton to 356 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 10 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching [53] 6. Demand End - Electrolytic aluminum production: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57] - Operating capacity and utilization rate: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.19 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [60] 7. Inventory - As of September 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 275,000 tons to 4.357 million tons, with different changes in various types of inventory [65] - As of September 5, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the SHFE delivery warehouse inventory increased by 72,000 tons to 119,200 tons. As the spot market loosened, the warehouse receipt registration volume gradually recovered [67]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing a shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed supply situation, with prices expected to continue a weak trend in September due to increased supply and stable demand from downstream aluminum producers [1][2][4]. Supply Analysis - As of September 5, the main aluminum oxide futures contract rebounded to 3006 yuan/ton, down nearly 14% from the recent high of 3482 yuan/ton in late July [1]. - The average price of metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the spot market was 3189.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.98 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous week [1]. - The supply of aluminum oxide remains ample, with a forecasted production of 7.7823 million tons by August 2025, an increase of 3.55% from July [1][2]. - Total aluminum oxide inventory in China reached 4.316 million tons by August 28, 2025, up 23.4 million tons from the previous month [2]. Demand Analysis - In August, the estimated consumption of aluminum oxide was 7.6428 million tons, an increase of 5.34 million tons or 0.7% from the previous month [2]. - The demand from downstream aluminum producers remains stable, with high operating rates in the electrolytic aluminum sector, although some regions are experiencing slight adjustments in production capacity [2][3]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of continued weak pricing in September, projected to range between 3000 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase as production stabilizes and some companies resume operations after maintenance [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to be influenced more by fundamental factors, with a strong supply and weak demand scenario likely to exert downward pressure on prices in the coming months [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic indicates that Yongxing Huashan's mining safety production license has been successfully renewed, and domestic weekly lithium carbonate production remains above 20,000 tons, with some companies resuming operations [1] - The operating rate of spodumene lithium extraction lines has further increased, and the production and processing profits in the smelting segment remain favorable [1] - Key events to monitor include the renewal and resumption timeline of CATL's mining license, adjustments in trading limits and margin requirements by the Guangxi Futures Exchange, and the supply and import situation of overseas lithium mines [1] Group 2: Alumina - The domestic spot market price of alumina has seen a decline, with the largest drop in Xinjiang region at 30 yuan/ton; as of August 28, China's total alumina inventory reached 4.316 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts continue to rise, indicating potential for further increases in inventory [1] - Key events to watch include the progress of domestic alumina resumption and new production, export policies and supply disruptions from bauxite mines in Guinea and Indonesia, and the impact of the traditional peak season on inventory replenishment [1] Group 3: Soybean Meal - The trading logic suggests that the excellent condition of U.S. soybeans supports high yield expectations, while domestic soybean crushing remains at high levels, leading to ample supply of soybean meal [1] - U.S. soybean exports to China have been zero for 17 consecutive weeks, with no signs of procurement starting [1] - Key events to monitor include the results of the new round of negotiations between China and the U.S., the USDA's September supply and demand report, and the planting progress and weather conditions for soybeans in Brazil and Argentina [1] Group 4: Tin - The trading logic indicates that a subsidiary of Tin Industry Co. has announced equipment maintenance, with the maintenance expected to last no more than 45 days starting August 30, 2025; the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is at 86.2% [1] - The recovery of tin supply from Myanmar is progressing slowly, and imports of tin ore into China remain low [1] - Key events to watch include the manufacturing PMI on August 31, the progress of tin mine recovery in Myanmar, and the Fed's interest rate decisions [1] Group 5: Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons; the volume of foreign ore arriving at ports has hit a one-month low, leading to a continuous decline in inventory [1] - The profitability of steel mills is at 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week, with daily iron water production at 2.4013 million tons, down by 6,200 tons [1] - Key events to monitor include the actual implementation of production limits in the north, the recovery of demand during the traditional peak season, and the macroeconomic impacts of potential Fed rate cuts [1] Group 6: Glass - The trading logic indicates that prices in the East China market have increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton; the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises nationwide is 62.566 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes or 1.63% [2] - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to drive relative seasonal demand [2] - Key events to monitor include whether the traditional peak season will lead to rigid replenishment and the impact of production and logistics restrictions on demand [2] Group 7: Coking Coal - The trading logic indicates that an online auction for 64,000 tons of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company failed; the purchasing pace from downstream has slowed, leading to increased supply pressure at ports in North and East China [2] - The profitability of coking plants is at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton from the previous period [2] - Key events to watch include the progress of "anti-involution" regulations, changes in pricing at Ganqimaodu port, and the recovery of coal mine supply [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Core Viewpoint - The alumina export from Fujian Province has significantly increased due to advancements in production technology, achieving a remarkable growth rate and gaining international recognition [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, Fujian Province exported alumina worth 370 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 796.2%, ranking second in the country for export value [1] - ASEAN is the largest market for Fujian's alumina exports, accounting for 220 million yuan, or 59.8% of the total alumina export value [1] - Exports to India reached 140 million yuan, a significant increase from no exports in the same period last year, making up 39.4% of the total [1] Group 2: Export Contributors - State-owned enterprises are the main contributors to Fujian's alumina exports, with a total export value of 360 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 803.8% and accounting for 99.1% of the province's total alumina exports [1] - Private enterprises also showed strong performance, with exports increasing by 406.7% [1] Group 3: Supportive Measures - Fuzhou Customs is enhancing services for enterprises by advancing smart customs initiatives and implementing a "report, inspect, and release" model to improve customs efficiency [1] - The customs authority is actively engaging with enterprises to identify challenges in overseas market expansion and providing tailored policy guidance to help them capture international orders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend in July revolves around the theme of "anti-involution," with the non-ferrous metal sector showing significant gains, particularly in response to government policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the non-ferrous index achieved a growth rate of 5.7%, ranking 8th among all industries, with small metals and energy metals performing exceptionally well [2]. - The central government's focus on establishing a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to drive improvements in product quality and industry standards [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Context - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need for regulatory measures to combat disordered competition and promote high-quality development [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, on July 18, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reform Analysis - The analysis of supply-side structural reforms indicates that the non-ferrous index's performance is closely tied to policy announcements, with historical data showing significant correlations between policy implementation and index fluctuations [2][3]. - The current "anti-involution" movement is set against a backdrop of global restructuring, aiming not only for price stabilization but also for sustainable high-quality growth [3][4]. Group 4: Comparative Insights - Japan's experience with anti-involution reforms in the cement industry serves as a reference, highlighting the importance of industry consolidation and capacity coordination to enhance market efficiency [3][4]. - The anticipated outcomes of the current anti-involution efforts may lead to increased mergers and collaborations within the industry, potentially raising market concentration and fostering high-quality development [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply is generally stable as Shunda is preparing for复产, but the spot price of alumina declined last week. The domestic alumina market is slightly oversupplied, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weak trend [1][2][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The transportation restrictions in northern regions due to the parade and the seasonal constraints in the south supported the ore prices. The impact of mine shutdowns and the rainy season in Guinea on the spot market is gradually emerging. Shunda is preparing for复产, and 4.054 million tons of new ore arrived during the period [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The trading atmosphere was light, and the import window was not fully opened. The industry profit is acceptable, leading to an increased willingness of enterprises to operate at full capacity. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 250,000 tons compared to last week, with an operating rate of 83.5% [2][12] - **Demand**: The domestic demand for alumina increased, with the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises rising. The overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was more stable, while the inventory of some local alumina enterprises increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 26,075 tons compared to last week. The domestic futures price continued to show a weak trend [14] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 30,000 tons of alumina were traded overseas on August 21, with the destination being Malaysia, and the CIF price was $386 per ton [15] - In July 2025, China's net export of alumina reached 104,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to July was 1.179 million tons [15] - In July, China's single - month import volume of bauxite reached 20.063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The data includes domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It covers the spot prices of alumina in various domestic provinces, the import price of alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [35][37][40] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The data involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in