Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply has little change after NIMBA Mining initiated the ship transfer procedure. The alumina price has a theoretical downward space, but over - speculation is not advisable. The industry is in an over - supply stage, and a bearish approach can be taken if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are resuming production, but environmental controls in the north will reduce output. The supply of domestic ore is hard to improve in the short term. Guinea ore is priced at 71 - 72 dollars/dry ton, while downstream enterprises' purchase intention is at 69 - 70 dollars/ton. NIMBA Mining has initiated a 200,000 - ton ore ship transfer, and about 1.5 million tons of port inventory is to be exported. Some inland mines in Guinea will increase shipments in November. Newly - arrived ore was 3.845 million tons, including 2.793 million tons from Guinea and 1.052 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China is 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2837.5 yuan/ton, down 33.7 yuan/ton. The import port price was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged. Electrolytic aluminum plants are starting winter storage, and alumina enterprises are mainly fulfilling long - term contracts. The Australian alumina is priced at about 320 dollars/ton, and the cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2828 yuan/ton, with the northern theoretical import profit dropping to about - 26 yuan/ton. The domestic full - cost of alumina is 2819 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is 89 yuan/ton. Some enterprises' roasting was suspended due to pollution warnings, while some increased production slightly. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with 96.85 million tons in operation, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 84.5% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianlong Mining stopped 27 electrolytic cells due to pollution warnings, affecting about 20,000 tons of production capacity. Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum plans to start 60 electrolytic cells on November 21, 2025, with a production capacity of about 66,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.233 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the operating capacity at 29.551 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the northern port inventory increased temporarily, and the inventory in other places also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 253,654 tons, an increase of 16,487 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - **Rise in Australian FOB Price and Decrease in Import Profit**: As of November 7, the Australian alumina price was about 320 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from October 31. The cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The domestic market declined slightly, and the northern theoretical import profit dropped to about - 26 yuan/ton. Due to overseas production cuts and upcoming Indonesian capacity, there is still pressure on overseas alumina prices [16] - **Profit and Loss of Alumina Enterprises and Production Expectations**: The alumina spot price has been falling for three months. Based on the October average price, about 28.95 million tons of the total 98.25 million tons of operating capacity of 39 alumina enterprises are in full - cost loss, accounting for 29.47%. The cash - cost loss capacity is 3.45 million tons, accounting for 3.51%. Losses are mainly in enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by environmental controls, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to stop 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8. It had stopped 2 furnaces in late October due to pollution warnings and resumed on October 31 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][23] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][38][41] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, total social inventory, port inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions are presented [44][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report offers a daily morning observation of the non - ferrous metals market, analyzing the market trends, important information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies of various non - ferrous metals such as precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.05% at $3977.17/ounce, London silver closed up 0.03% at $48.01/ounce. The US dollar index closed down 0.45% at 99.67, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.088%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 7.1188 [8]. - **Important Information**: Trump won't announce new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case. The US House Speaker is less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. The US included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list. US private employment data shows a weak labor market. Fed officials have different views on December rate cuts [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple Fed officials are cautious about December rate cuts, pressuring precious metals. But risks like the government shutdown, tariff debates, and labor market risks support prices. So, precious metals are expected to continue adjusting [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use a band - trading approach for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2512 contract rose 0.33% to 85690 yuan/ton, and the LME copper closed down 0.43% at $10684/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [12]. - **Important Information**: The US included copper in the critical minerals list. The Fed's December rate - cut direction is unclear. Chinese copper inventories have been rising for 5 weeks. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term US government shutdown causes liquidity concerns. Copper supply remains tight, but non - US supply pressure eases. High copper prices reduce demand, and domestic inventories increase [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold cross - market long positions and exit when the export window opens; wait and see for options [13][14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell 6 yuan to 2774 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes [17]. - **Important Information**: Australia sold 30,000 tons of alumina at $320/ton FOB. National alumina inventories increased. Some projects in Guinea and China are in progress [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply still exceeds demand. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts haven't happened, and imports and new projects put pressure on prices [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect narrow - range bottom - grinding for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21630 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. - **Important Information**: US companies' October lay - offs reached a 20 - year high. US ADP employment in October increased. Chinese aluminum ingot inventories decreased. A US aluminum smelter cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data improved the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut. The supply - demand of aluminum remains tight, with overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; consider going long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage; wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract remained flat at 20910 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Similar to electrolytic aluminum, including US lay - offs, ADP employment data, and TGA balance changes. The industry's theoretical profit increased [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data eased market concerns. Supply shortages and rising raw material costs support prices, and demand is improving [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.11% to $3051/ton, and the SHFE zinc 2512 rose 0.15% to 22630 yuan/ton. Shanghai zinc inventories decreased [29]. - **Important Information**: SMM seven - region zinc inventories decreased [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are falling, leading to potential production cuts. The export window is open, but new production and export volume are uncertain [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold the strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc for arbitrage; wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.84% to $2036.5/ton, and the SHFE lead 2512 fell 0.23% to 17405 yuan/ton. Spot prices fell, and downstream buying improved [33]. - **Important Information**: SMM five - region lead inventories increased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - storage enterprises cut production due to high prices and high dealer inventories. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose to $15055/ton, and the inventory decreased to 253104 tons [36]. - **Important Information**: Indonesia restricted new smelting licenses and cracked down on illegal nickel mining [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventories remain high, indicating loose supply - demand. Cost support may weaken in December, and nickel prices will fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a downward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle option for the 2512 contract [37][39]. Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A South Korean stainless - steel factory suspended operations due to a gas leak. National stainless - steel inventories increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand is weak, and the supply of cold - rolled products is sufficient. Cost support is weak, and the price trend is downward [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Angola was completed [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, demand for industrial silicon decreased, and some factories stopped production. Supply - demand is basically balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; conduct a long - spread strategy for Si2512 and Si2601 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [44]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on coal - new energy integration [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, polysilicon supply and demand both decreased, with supply decreasing more. Without new positive news, the price is weak in the short term [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction for single - side trading; conduct a reverse - spread strategy for far - month contracts; no option strategy [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A mining right in Jiangxi was under public notice. Chile's lithium carbonate exports increased in October [46][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: This week's production increased, and inventory decreased. But lithium concentrate arrivals and potential production resumptions will pressure prices in the future [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Tin - **Market Review**: The SHFE tin 2512 rose 0.11% to 283100 yuan/ton, and LME tin inventories increased [50]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on rate cuts. Yunnan over - achieved its tin exploration target. A company's tin production decreased. An electronics company's export situation changed [50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Fed officials' rate - cut views differ. Tin mining supply is tight, and production recovery may be delayed. Demand recovers slowly [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect high - level fluctuations for single - side trading; wait and see for options [53].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights significant growth in China's alumina export market, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in recent months [1] Export Data Summary - In September 2025, China's alumina export volume reached 250,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.2% [1] - The export value for the same period was $12 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 51.2% [1] Industry Insights - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions to support investment decisions [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a weak bearish view [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is under pressure in the short - term after a valuation repair, and in the long - term, the negative feedback in the industrial chain may occur due to alumina production cuts. The situation can only be changed by supply - side production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2336, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 102 [2]. - On November 5, in Shandong, individual enterprises in southwestern and southern Shandong lowered their prices. Due to increased supply in the west, high - price products had poor sales, so they were sold at reduced prices [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices over the weekend increased the cost of caustic soda significantly. However, caustic soda enterprises did not cut production, resulting in insufficient upward drivers [3]. - The pattern of high production and high inventory of caustic soda continues, and the market is continuously shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other. The winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3]. - In the long run, alumina production cuts will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain, and only supply - side production cuts can change the situation. So, pay attention to the supply changes under the background of liquid chlorine and low profits [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - **Related Information**: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - **Trading Logic**: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - **Related Information**: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - **Related Information**: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - **Important Information**: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - **Important Information**: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - **Related Information**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - **Logic Analysis**: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - **Strategy Suggestion**: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - **Logic Analysis**: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - **Important Information**: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].