Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of alumina production capacity has led to significant industry challenges, including supply-demand imbalance, price declines, and resource dependency, necessitating the establishment of a production capacity "ceiling" for alumina to ensure market stability and sustainable development [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The alumina industry is facing severe overcapacity issues due to rapid production capacity expansion [1] - This overcapacity has resulted in supply-demand imbalances and declining prices within the industry [1] - The industry is also grappling with increased resource dependency as a consequence of these challenges [1] Group 2: Proposed Solutions - It is recommended to draw lessons from the successful experiences of the electrolytic aluminum industry [1] - Establishing a scientifically planned production capacity ceiling is suggested to control alumina output [1] - Strengthening policy regulation and promoting industrial structure optimization are essential for addressing these challenges [1] - The establishment of an exit mechanism is proposed to rationally manage alumina production capacity [1] - These measures aim to ensure market stability and support the green and sustainable development of the industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trading has ended, leading to a decline in alumina futures prices. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the resumption of production and the release of new production capacity. After the end of the emotional trading, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory and weak trend [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Due to frequent rainfall in the north and the influence of the rainy season and typhoons in the south, the mining and shipping efficiency of domestic ores were affected. The shipment decline of Guinea in July will impact the supply in August, September, and October. Some mines are in the process of resuming production. The new - arrived ore during the period was 3.07 million tons, and the freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream enterprises were resistant to high prices. The domestic alumina supply remained at a high level, with a production capacity of 113.02 million tons, a running capacity of 94.75 million tons (a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 83.8% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 3.243 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from last week. The inventory structure changed due to factors such as railway freight reduction and increased shipments [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,615 tons, a decrease of 307 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On July 30, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at an FOB price of $373.7 per ton [16] - On July 30, 300 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shanxi at an ex - factory price of 3,400 yuan per ton [16] - On July 28, the winning bid price of a regular alumina tender by an aluminum plant in Xinjiang was between 3,520 - 3,580 yuan per ton, an increase of 90 - 150 yuan per ton from last week [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The data includes domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, etc., with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [17][20][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The data sources are Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [34][36][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, etc. The data sources are mainly from Aladdin and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [43][46][48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

现货市场方面，Mysteel数据显示近期氧化铝价格稳中有升。新湖期货分析认为："短期现货价格或因局 部供应偏紧而坚挺，期货价格则受投机资金主导，短期或仍有反复。"值得注意的是，南北方市场呈现 差异化表现，北方下游铝厂对现货采购情绪逐渐下降，而南方受需求阶段性增加，市场询货积极性相对 较高。 上涨动因：低仓单风险与海外供应扰动 本次氧化铝价格上涨主要受到两重因素推动。金瑞期货分析指出："今日注册仓单增加但整体仓单库存 仍处低位、现货价格继续小涨下预底部支撑仍存。"上期所氧化铝仓单降至0.4万吨的极低水平，加剧了 市场对挤仓风险的担忧，为价格提供了短期支撑。 海外供应端出现扰动事件。据阿拉丁（ALD）综合海外媒体消息，2025年7月28日凌晨几内亚弗利亚地 区俄铝下属的Friguia氧化铝厂发生罢工，工人设置路障导致交通完全瘫痪。虽然目前暂未对供应产生实 质性影响，但这一事件加剧了市场对海外供应稳定性的担忧。宏源期货表示："进口几内亚铝土矿价格 上涨推升生产成本"，进一步强化了成本支撑逻辑。 供需格局：产量攀升与过剩预期压制 周三，氧化铝期货市场呈现先涨后跌的震荡走势，主力合约最终收涨1.65%。市场分析指出，多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Group 1 - The recent inspection of outdated capacity in the petrochemical industry has reinforced market expectations for alumina production cuts, with 45% of alumina production facilities being over 10 years old [1] - Despite the clear oversupply in the alumina industry and the necessity for capacity clearance, the actual scale of capacity exit is expected to be limited due to high integration among enterprises and a long-term pricing model [1][4] - The alumina industry is still in an expansion phase, with new capacity expected to exceed 13 million tons in 2025, despite the implementation of stricter capacity approval processes [1][2] Group 2 - The Guinean government has suspended aluminum ore exports from EGA and revoked mining licenses, but the main goal is to regulate mining activities rather than to prohibit them [2] - The Guinean mining policy emphasizes "resource for industry," requiring mining companies to build alumina refineries locally and mandating that 50% of bauxite exports be transported by local shipping companies [2] - The impact of Guinean policies on bauxite export volumes is expected to be limited in the short term, with local alumina capacity anticipated to materialize mainly after 2026 [2] Group 3 - China's dependence on imported bauxite is approximately 75%, with 70% of imports coming from Guinea, making changes in Guinean policy significant for domestic supply [3] - Despite seasonal fluctuations in bauxite shipments during the rainy season, domestic inventory levels remain high, with port inventories reaching 28.44 million tons, sufficient to meet four months of consumption [3] - The increase in domestic bauxite inventory is expected to offset the impact of seasonal shipment declines from Guinea, maintaining stable raw material supply and cost prices [3] Group 4 - The continuous increase in spot inventory and the decline in warehouse receipts are contributing to the rise in alumina prices, with recent futures price increases likely to enhance registration willingness for warehouse receipts [4] - As of July 18, domestic alumina inventory reached 3.989 million tons, continuing an upward trend, while production is also on the rise [4] - Short-term bullish factors for alumina are concentrated, but the medium-term outlook remains uncertain due to the persistent oversupply situation in the industry [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to "anti - involution" and the elimination of old - fashioned production capacity has been overheated, and there is a need for sentiment adjustment. The upward pressure on alumina futures at high levels has increased. However, the short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices next week when entering the delivery month [2][6] - The supply of alumina in the south has become more tight due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern alumina plant, while the supply in the north is relatively loose. The theoretical starting capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the acceptance of high - priced alumina by electrolytic aluminum plants has improved, leading to a slight improvement in consumption. Spot holders are strongly supporting prices, and the spot price continues to rise [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Data Type | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/25 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3133 | 3428 | 295 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3202 | 3255 | 53 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 51 | - 172 | - 223 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 368 | 376 | 8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 85.12 | - 138.62 | - 53.5 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 6922 | 9031 | 2109 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 73 | 73 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 9.42% last week, closing at 3428 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the alumina spot market was reported at 3255 yuan/ton on Friday, up 53 yuan/ton from last week [4] - The supply shortage of bauxite continues, and the price is slightly adjusted. The price of imported ores is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas situations on China's imported ore market and spot trading [4] - The starting capacity of alumina is basically stable. As of July 24, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the starting capacity was 93.2 million tons, and the starting rate was 81.18% [4] - The theoretical starting capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased slightly, and the demand for alumina has theoretically increased [4] - The warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 2109 tons to 0.9 million tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6] 3. Market Outlook - The news that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in ten industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical industries has continuously triggered expectations of supply - side interference, and the bullish sentiment for alumina is high [2][6] - The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the high premium of deliverable goods in the spot market makes it difficult to create warehouse receipts. The low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices when entering the delivery month next week [2][6] 4. Industry News - A large - scale alumina plant in Shanxi plans to end the previous production cut at the end of the month and resume full - capacity operation, with the operating capacity increasing to 2.8 million tons [7] - An alumina enterprise in Shandong plans to reach full - capacity production in early August, with a resumption of production capacity of about 350,000 tons [7] - From January to June 2025, China imported a total of 103.4 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year decrease of 17.71%, and imported 101,300 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 168.44%. The net import of alumina in June was - 69,700 tons [7] 5. Related Charts - The report includes charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina's current - month to continuous - first spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][10][12][14][17][20][21]

反内卷政策下氧化铝行情如何看待 2025-07-25 14:04:41 反内卷政策下氧化铝行情如何看待 2025/07/24 揭婷（投资咨询证号：Z0022453） 中国氧化铝月度产量季节性 source： SMM,南华研究 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 400 500 600 700 800 氧化铝全国周度开工率 source： SMM,南华研究 % 氧化铝周度开工率：全国 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 我们认为此次反内卷对铝产业供应端采取的措施或将类似3月发布的《铝产业高质量发展实施方案 （2025—2027年）》主要侧重于对未来新建项目的审批上。《实施方案》中涉及氧化铝的措施主要是"慎建设 氧化铝项目。新改扩建氧化铝项目能效须达到强制性能耗限额标准先进值和环保绩效A级水平，不再新建或扩 建以一水硬铝石为原料的氧化铝生产线，原则上新扩建氧化铝项目（包括使用铝土矿生产氢氧化铝的项目） 需有与产能相匹配的权益铝土矿产量，具有一定的赤泥综合利用能力。" 结 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

反内卷下氧化铝后市展望 20250724 摘要 氧化铝行业经历剧烈价格波动，从 5,850 元/吨跌至 2,850 元/吨仅用 40 余日，随后因亏损导致大面积减产和检修，但新产能如魏桥江化等逐 步投入运行，二季度产量同比增加 148 万吨。 二季度电解铝下游冶金级氧化铝需求量达 2,125 万吨，占总产量 94%，非冶金级需求也因价格回落而恢复，进出口总量达 46 万吨，全 行业供需缺口约 40 万吨，7 月现货市场依然偏紧。 政策调整将老旧氧化铝装置年限从 30 年调整为 20 年，影响部分企业， 但由于设备更新改造，实际影响有限，且氧化铝耗能相对较低，具备竞 争力。 氧化铝行业竞争相对健康，平均利润基本保持在每吨 200 元左右，远高 于钢铁行业，且 90%的供应服务于电解铝，供需形式较为稳定。 国内氧化铝生产对进口矿依赖度高，达 70%，主要供应国几内亚政策调 整带来潜在风险，不应完全淘汰使用国产矿的产能，以保障供应链安全。 2025 年国内新投放约 1,300 万吨氧化铝产能，旨在优化产业结构，提 高生产效率，对市场整体供应量不会产生实质性改变。 国内氧化铝供应量接近 9,400 万吨，电解铝需求量 ...