宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，得益于美元的疲软，伦敦金自盘中早些时候触及的低点反弹， | | 研究员：王伟 | 收复日内全部跌幅，最终收涨 0.43%，收报 3325.215 美元/盎司；伦敦银连续第四个交 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 易日上涨，最终收涨 2.16%，报 36.743 美元/盎司，继续刷新自 2012 年以来的价格高 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 点。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.18%，报 776.66 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 | | | 2.07%，报 9015 元/千克，为沪银合约上市以来的新高。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数震荡走低，最终收跌 0.25%，报 98.94。 | | 期货从业证号 ...

周四，氧化铝期货大幅下挫，回吐昨日全部涨幅，价格再度跌破3000元关口，价格增仓下行，日内收跌 2.90%，报2943元/吨。 库存拐点显现，结束四连降！引发短期悲观预期 我的钢铁网分析认为：当前国内氧化铝企业用矿压力仍在，一方面在于几内亚铝矿政策扰动及海运费波 动等因素导致近期几内亚铝土矿价格维持上涨局面；另一方面是短期国产铝土矿补充供应缺口能力有 限。 最新数据显示，氧化铝市场库存压力正在逐步显现。据Mysteel统计，截至6月5日全国氧化铝库存为 380.5万吨，较前一周增加1.1万吨，此前连续四周下降。其中港口库存大增4.1万吨，在途库存小幅增 加，而氧化铝及电解铝厂内库存则出现下降。这一库存结构变化表明，市场流通环节的氧化铝供应正在 增加，而终端需求方的采购意愿相对减弱。 金瑞期货指出：市场情绪受现货跌价成交及社会库存转累影响，引发短期悲观预期，期价增仓下行。 多家氧化铝企业陆续着手复产，供应端压力持续增加 氧化铝供应端呈现明显恢复态势。据SMM数据，截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万 吨/年，运行总产能8727万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周回升0.54个百分点至78.75%。 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3035243 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0014605 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 主力合约行情走势图（氧化铝） [Table_Summary] ★几内亚 A 矿区暂未恢复，氧化铝供给小幅增加 有 色 金 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。环保督察组进驻山西地区，不 过对矿山产出影响有限，山西目前开采的矿山仍在继续开采，没 有复产的矿山则继续停产整顿，供应端没有太多变化。进口方面， AXIS 矿区顺达、中水电及高顶三家矿山仍处于停产状态，企业 在与政府接触，但没有取得进展。矿石散货成交明显增加主流成 交价格维持在 74-75 美元/干吨。到货方面，期内新到矿石 367.1 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 269.1 万吨，澳大利亚资源 8 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for May 2025 show a slight recovery, with the BCI reading at 50.3, indicating stabilization in the economy due to a combination of financial policies and tariff reductions, although the trend still requires consolidation [1][2][18]. Economic Indicators - The BCI reading for May 2025 is 50.3, up 0.2 points from the previous value, reflecting a recovery in economic conditions since the "9·24" event [2]. - The BCI readings from October 2024 to May 2025 show fluctuations: 46.0 in September 2024, rising to 50.5 in November 2024, then dipping to 48.3 in December 2024, and reaching 54.8 in March 2025 before a slight decline to 50.1 in April 2025 [2]. Microeconomic Conditions - The microeconomic indicators show mixed results: improvements in financing environment, employment, and consumer price expectations, while declines are noted in intermediate goods price expectations, profit expectations, and investment expectations [4]. - The financing environment index improved to 49.1 in April, up from 48.0, indicating a better financing situation influenced by recent financial policies [4]. Employment Trends - Employment rebounded significantly in May, with the enterprise hiring index rising by 1.9 points, suggesting a high elasticity of employment in the external demand supply chain [9]. - The report estimates that foreign trade directly and indirectly supports around 170 million jobs, accounting for over 20% of total employment in the country [9]. Price Indicators - There is a divergence in price indicators: the consumer price expectation index is rising, while the intermediate goods price expectation index is declining, indicating pressure on industrial prices despite improvements in consumer prices [12]. - The profit expectation index continues to decline, reflecting ongoing pressure from low industrial prices, with PPI showing negative growth from January to April 2025 [14]. Investment Sentiment - The enterprise investment expectation index is declining, attributed to uncertainties in external environments and high real interest rates [15]. - Recommendations include lowering nominal interest rates and increasing government investment to stimulate corporate investment [15][16]. Conclusion - The economic situation in May shows improvement compared to April, but the trend needs further consolidation, with key factors such as US-China trade negotiations and local government project accelerations being crucial for future pricing [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced significant volatility in May, driven by Guinea's mining policy changes and shifts in supply-demand expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Guinea's Mining Policy Impact - The Guinean government has revoked numerous mining licenses, affecting various sectors including bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore [2]. - Despite the current uncertainty, there are expectations that companies may be able to bid for new mining licenses, alleviating some market concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has improved as it is believed that long-term shutdowns of mining operations are not feasible for economic reasons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's bauxite imports increased by 34.3% year-on-year from January to April, with a notable 59.62% increase in April alone, reaching a historical high [3]. - As of the end of April, China's bauxite inventory stood at 41.15 million tons, indicating a relatively ample supply [3]. - Domestic demand for aluminum oxide remains stable, although export demand has weakened [3]. Group 3: Production and Pricing Trends - The operating rate of aluminum oxide production facilities has been high due to favorable profit margins, providing strong support for demand [4]. - In April, China's aluminum oxide production was 7.323 million tons, showing a 2% month-on-month decline but a 6.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - The average cost of aluminum oxide production decreased to 2,850 yuan/ton in May, leading to a recovery in industry profits, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall price of bauxite has rebounded due to the mining rights revocation in Guinea, but high domestic inventories may limit the impact on near-term supply [5]. - Approximately 5.2 million tons of new production capacity with significant cost advantages are expected to be released in the second quarter [5]. - The aluminum oxide market may experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at 3,500 yuan/ton and support around 2,800 yuan/ton [5].

6. 一财记者走访多家供应商发现，随着中国汽车市场打起"价格战"，上游企业利润空间持续压缩至 10%，账期也长达120天。业内人士认为"价格战"可能导致供应商陷入亏损和汽车质量安全问题。 7. 上期所公告，自2025年5月29日（星期四）收盘结算时起，氧化铝期货合约的涨跌停板幅度从7%上调 至9%，套保交易保证金比例从8%上调至10%，投机交易保证金比例从9%上调至11%；白银期货合约的 涨跌停板幅度从11%上调至12%，套保交易保证金比例从12%上调至13%，投机交易保证金比例从13% 上调至14%。 8. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，贵州某中型氧化铝企业近日开始复产，暂未形成满产，阶段运行产能60 万吨左右，以满足长单交付为主，后续企业重点关注近期氧化铝价格走势再定满产节奏 9. 国际铝业协会（IAI）数据显示，2025年4月全球氧化铝产量为1240.7万吨，日均产量为41.36万吨；中 国2025年4月氧化铝预估产量为738.4万吨。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月28日） 1. 上期能源公告，自2025年5月29日（星期四）收盘结算时起，集运指数（欧线）期货合约的涨跌停板 幅度从16%上调至1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]