Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant milestone for China's futures market and the recycling metal industry, enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development in the aluminum sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch Details - The first trading of casting aluminum alloy futures occurred at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with seven contracts listed at a benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - On the first trading day, a total of 57,300 contracts were traded, amounting to 11.011 billion yuan, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts [1]. - The main contract, AD2511, closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, reflecting a 4.49% increase [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a key development in integrating finance with the non-ferrous metal industry, enhancing China's international influence in aluminum production [1][2]. - The launch is expected to provide companies with effective risk management tools, addressing previous shortcomings in hedging against price fluctuations in aluminum alloys [2]. - The listing has garnered positive responses from industry players, with several well-known companies actively participating in the trading [2]. Group 3: Role of Intermediaries - Futures companies are positioned to offer comprehensive services, from standardized contracts to customized solutions for risk management in the aluminum industry [3]. - The ability to design personalized products based on standardized contracts will enhance the precision of risk management services for enterprises [3]. - Futures companies can facilitate industry participation in the futures market through simple methods, leveraging their risk management subsidiaries [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a significant off - season, showing weak performance. The price of scrap aluminum has declined, and ADC12 is relatively weak. In the short - term, the unilateral price of casting aluminum alloy is under pressure and may run weakly. The price difference between ADC12 and electrolytic aluminum still has room to decline. In the medium - to - long - term, a long - ADC12 and short - electrolytic aluminum position can be arranged at the end of the off - season, and attention can be paid to the inter - period positive spread position [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - to - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The price of scrap aluminum has decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has increased. After the raw material price of alloy plants decreased, the cost has loosened, but the operating rate is expected to continue to decline due to demand limitations [8][9][13] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a slight short - term decline, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 has significantly converged. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and presents certain seasonal patterns. The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low. ADC12 is mainly made from scrap aluminum and is currently in a loss state. The explicit and implicit inventories of casting alloys have increased, and the import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [19][22][27] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided [38][40] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - In terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and some household appliances, as well as the automobile inventory warning index, are also presented in the report [45][46]

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：价格承压，相较于A00价差继续收敛 强弱分析：偏弱，价格区间：20000-20500元/吨 ADC12匡算亏损加剧 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-13 01-24 02-05 02-16 02-27 03-10 03-21 04-01 04-13 04-24 05-08 05-19 05-30 06-10 06-21 07-02 07-13 07-24 08-04 08-15 08-26 09-06 09-18 09-29 10-17 10-28 11-08 11-19 11-30 12-11 12-22 元/吨 ADC12利润 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is under pressure due to weak consumption, and it is expected to remain weak in the medium - term. The ADC12 - A00 basis may continue to converge, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][6]. - The supply side of scrap aluminum is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The alloy production rate shows a downward trend. The consumption off - season is deepening, and downstream demand is weak, mainly for rigid needs [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production, shipment volume, and imports are at high levels, but the year - on - year growth rate of imports is declining. Social inventory is at a historically high - middle level. The price of scrap aluminum is firm, and the refined - scrap price difference is at a relatively low level with a slight rebound [9][11][15]. - Currently, there is a seasonal shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Recyclers have limited inventory, and due to the tight supply of circulating goods, they are reluctant to sell. The price is firm and stable. The profit of scrap aluminum extrusion alloy plants is squeezed, and they are now in a loss stage. In May, it is expected that the production rate of casting aluminum alloy plants will be adjusted downward, reducing the demand for scrap aluminum [6]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy is in a short - term sideways movement, and the ADC12 - A00 spread continues to converge. The regional price difference shows that the southwest region is relatively weak [22][25]. - The production rate of casting aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the explicit and implicit inventories have increased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [35][39]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are provided, and the production proportion of different regions is also given [43][44]. Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The peak consumption season for automobiles in the first half of the year is relatively weak, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market. Downstream orders show a marginal weakening trend in the second quarter, and restocking is relatively cautious. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises is poor, mainly for rigid needs [6][48].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Mo Xiaoxiong - Date: May 11, 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cast aluminum alloy market is under pressure and weaker than A00 aluminum. The supply - demand of scrap aluminum is both weak, and the alloy plant's operating rate shows a downward trend. The consumption is in the off - season, with downstream demand being weak. As the off - season deepens, prices are under significant pressure and tend to be weak. The ADC12 - A00 basis may continue to converge, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Production, shipment, and social inventory of scrap aluminum are at high levels. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. The price of scrap aluminum is firm, and the refined - scrap price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level [9][10][14]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy is in short - term consolidation, and the ADC12 - A00 spread continues to converge. The operating rate of the cast aluminum alloy industry has been slightly reduced and is at a historical medium level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently in a small loss. The operating rate on the production side has decreased slightly, and the explicit and implicit inventories of cast alloys have increased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [20][25][33]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - Information on the production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods is provided, including the production volume and its proportion in different regions, as well as the factory inventory and its proportion [37][38][39]. Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The consumption peak season for automobiles in the first half of the year is weak, which affects the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances are presented, along with the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [43][44]. Market Data Summary - In March 2025, the total supply of scrap aluminum and ADC12 decreased slightly. The month - on - month changes in total supply, social inventory, and other indicators are given, as well as the week - on - week changes in the prices of some scrap aluminum products and the month - on - month changes in vehicle and motorcycle production [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum alloy is a metal material with the advantages of light weight, high strength, and easy processing. ADC12 is a typical recycled cast aluminum alloy widely used in various fields. The production process of recycled aluminum alloy and ADC12 includes multiple steps, and the spot pricing mode of ADC12 is affected by multiple factors [1]. - The properties, classification, production process, uses, and pricing models of aluminum alloys and ADC12 are comprehensively introduced, highlighting their importance and application potential in different industries [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Aluminum Alloy Introduction 1.1 Basic Properties - Aluminum alloy is a metal material with light weight, high strength, and easy processing. Its density ranges from 2.63 to 2.85 g/cm³, and its tensile strength (σb) can reach 110 to 650 MPa. It has excellent casting and plastic processing capabilities, as well as good electrical and thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and weldability, and is widely used in many fields [7]. 1.2 Classification - **By composition and processing method**: Divided into cast aluminum alloy and wrought aluminum alloy. Cast aluminum alloy can be further divided into aluminum - silicon alloy, aluminum - copper alloy, aluminum - magnesium alloy, aluminum - zinc alloy, and aluminum - rare earth alloy; wrought aluminum alloy can be further divided into rust - proof aluminum alloy, hard aluminum alloy, super - hard aluminum alloy, and forged aluminum alloy [8][9][11]. - **By use**: Classified into industrial aluminum alloy, aviation aluminum alloy, civil aluminum alloy, and conductive aluminum alloy [14]. - **By production source**: Divided into primary aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy [15]. - **By the type and quantity of alloying elements**: The grades of aluminum alloy are represented by the 1XXX - 9XXX series according to the ASTM standard, and different grades have different properties and applications [16]. 2. ADC12 Introduction 2.1 Definition - ADC12 is an alloy used for manufacturing die - cast parts, also known as A383, with low cost and simple manufacturing process, and is widely used in many die - castings internationally [18]. 2.1.1 Composition - ADC12 usually refers to the cast aluminum alloy that meets the ADC12.1 in the Japanese standard JIS H 5302 - 2006, and it accounts for about 75% of the output of recycled cast aluminum alloy in China in 2023 [20]. 2.1.2 Properties - ADC12 is a typical Al - Si - Cu series recycled cast aluminum alloy, with properties such as low melting point, high fluidity, light weight, good thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, good machinability, and resistance to thermal cracking [20][21]. 2.2 Production Process - The production of recycled aluminum alloy mainly involves pre - treatment of waste aluminum, melting and casting, and deep - processing. The casting process is mainly divided into pressure casting (including high - pressure casting and low - pressure casting) and gravity casting [24][27][30]. 2.3 Uses - **Transportation field**: In the automotive industry, it accounts for more than 70% of the total aluminum used, and is used in engine parts, shell components, and chassis parts. In the motorcycle and electric vehicle industries, it is also widely used due to its light weight, high strength, and corrosion resistance [34]. - **Building decoration field**: Aluminum alloy has many advantages in the construction industry, such as light weight, easy extrusion, corrosion resistance, and high recycling value, and is an ideal green building structure material [37]. - **Mechanical manufacturing field**: Recycled aluminum alloy can reduce production costs and is widely used in automotive parts, mechanical equipment shells, mold manufacturing, and precision tools [38]. 2.4 Spot Pricing Mode - **Based on market supply - demand relationship**: The price of ADC12 is affected by market supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand, the price may fall; when demand exceeds supply, the price may rise. Production cost, inventory level, environmental protection policies, and industry development strategies also affect supply and demand [41][44]. - **Based on spot market price**: The base price for pricing can be divided into spot price and futures price. Currently, the aluminum alloy pricing is mainly based on the spot price, with the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's daily morning quotation being the mainstream transaction price [45].

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年4月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：短期震荡，ADC12-A00价差缩窄 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：20500-20800元/吨 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-13 01-24 02-05 02-16 02-27 03-10 03-21 04-01 04-13 04-24 05-08 05-19 05-30 06-10 06-21 07-02 07-13 07-24 08-04 08-15 08-26 09-06 09-18 09-29 10-17 10-28 11-08 11-19 11-30 12-11 12-22 元/吨 ADC12利润 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00有望延续下滑趋势 - ...