随着 2025 年伯克希尔 · 哈撒韦公司年度股东大会的临近，全球财经界的目光再次投向这场投资界盛 会。 届时，94岁的沃伦·巴菲特将携接班人团队直面股东提问。而今年尤为特殊，是继2023年11月查理·芒 格离世后的第二届大会，伯克希尔的"后芒格时代"战略调方向整成为市场关注的焦点。 2025年5月3日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会将在奥马哈如期举行。九方智投控股（9636.HK）旗下品 牌九方智投，将作为第一财经2025巴菲特股东大会直播的独家冠名商，带领国内投资者第一时间全 程直击现场。 与此同时，九方智投还将推出《巴菲特与七顿午餐》专题栏目，邀请多位九方智投首席投资顾问连续 7天解析巴菲特价值投资、全球化布局等核心思想。 AI、人形机器人的驱动与投资 第四轮工业革命浪潮下，生成式AI正重塑投资逻辑。Deepseek等企业的技术突破推动科技股估值飙 升。在美股市场，科技股估值持续攀升，英伟达、微软等行业巨头市值更是一路高歌猛进，纷纷突破 万亿美元大关。 但巴菲特在2024年致股东信中仍强调："AI不会改变我们对企业本质价值的判断"。 那么AI是颠覆者还是赋能者？今年巴菲特对AI技术持审慎态度是否会有改变？ 尽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ultimate significance of investment is to overcome the growth of global money supply, which increases at a rate of 8% to 10% annually, and only the most scarce quality assets can transcend cycles [3][51][52]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The emergence of three new consumer demands: IP consumption, self-indulgent consumption, and domestic alternatives, indicates a shift in consumer behavior [82][75]. - IP consumption is identified as a global opportunity, driven by a societal rejection of reality and the rise of innovative supply methods, such as the influence of streaming platforms like Netflix [84][90]. - The manufacturing sector is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade, with companies transitioning from traditional products to advanced technologies, such as aerospace components [96][102]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "East Rising, West Falling" is observed, with significant changes in the US and Chinese markets, influenced by political and economic cycles [10][13][16]. - The Chinese market is expected to normalize in 2024, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than macroeconomic factors [53][75]. - The valuation gap between Chinese and US stocks is narrowing, with potential for further adjustments in the coming quarters [35][36]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The rise of self-indulgent consumption reflects a shift in consumer priorities, with companies achieving significant growth despite overall market challenges [95][117]. - The performance of domestic brands in high-end markets is improving, as evidenced by the success of products like Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra and the box office success of films like "Nezha 2" [93][94]. - The traditional consumer staples are being challenged by new entrants that focus on quality and innovation, indicating a transformation in the competitive landscape [96][95]. Group 4: AI and Technology - The application of AI is expected to explode as technology becomes more accessible, with Chinese companies likely to replicate and accelerate the advancements made in the US [109][110]. - The hardware sector in the US faces challenges as capital expenditures rise, leading to potential market corrections [121][125]. - The aviation industry presents strategic opportunities, particularly in the production of aircraft engines, which are expected to see increased demand and profitability [128][130].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【直播回放】 港股指数基金的品种也越来越丰富。 常见的港股宽基指数，有恒生、H股、港股中小；策略指数，例如港股红利；行业主题指数，例如港股消费、恒生医疗、港股科技、恒生科技等。 这些指数分别有啥特点？影响港股涨跌走势的原因有哪些？ 如何快速查询港股各个指数的估值数据？ 在昨晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0422 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 策略指数丰富了我们投资的选项，满足了很多投资者个性化的需求。 第三类是行业指数。 也就是仅覆盖了某个行业的股票，例如消费、医药、金融等。 最常见的行业指数，是11个一级行业。 每个一级行业，其实都是社会不可或缺的一部分，长期也是跟着社会发展的。 第四类是主题指数。 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 港股常见的四类指数 跟A股类似，港股常见的指数，主要也分为四类。 第一类是 宽基 指数。 通常是按照上市公司的市值规模来选股的，会包含各个行业的股票，覆盖范围很"宽"。 第二类是 策略指数 。 通常是在宽基指数的基础上，用了某一种投资策略， ...

Core Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw a net redemption trend in active equity funds, with significant outflows from various fund types, although some funds managed to attract substantial inflows [1][2][8] Fund Performance Summary - Ordinary stock funds experienced a net redemption of 34.13 billion units, while mixed equity funds saw a net redemption of 492.44 billion units, and flexible allocation funds had a net redemption of 161.44 billion units [2] - Despite the overall trend, several funds recorded net subscriptions exceeding 10 billion units, including 富国消费精选30C, 鹏华碳中和主题C, and 天弘价值精选C, which led their respective categories [2][4][5] Top Performing Funds - The top net subscription in ordinary stock funds was 富国消费精选30C with 14.45 billion units, followed by 景顺长城研究精选C with 12.71 billion units, and 富国新兴产业C with 10.01 billion units [3][9] - In the mixed equity fund category, 鹏华碳中和主题C topped the list with 44.27 billion units, followed by 富国稳健增长A with 36.45 billion units, and 永赢先进制造智选C with 32.01 billion units [4][6] Investment Themes - The funds that attracted significant capital were primarily focused on technology and consumer sectors, indicating a strong market interest in these themes [8][10] - Fund managers expressed confidence in traditional consumer leaders, suggesting an increase in allocation to these sectors due to improved risk-reward ratios and stable fundamentals [11]

以下文章来源于望京博格投基 ，作者望京博格 望京博格投基 . 记录望京博格投资基金的故事 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 望京博格 来源：雪球 一、港股是港币计价的人民币资产 在港股类似腾讯这样中资企业比比皆是~ 二、A股的估值不便宜 沪深300指数目前市盈率为12.26倍，处于最近10年43.33%的位置，只能说是不贵，但是绝对算不算便宜。 在2018年、2022年、2024年沪深300最低估值都触及10-11倍市盈率。 很多人把港股当做海外资金，其实港股是实实在在的港币计价的人民币资产。 例如，腾讯控股在港股上市，股价是以港币计算的。 但是腾讯的营收、资产、支出、发工资等等都是人民币，所以腾讯控股是人民币资产，专业点就是港币计价 的人民币资产。 近期国家队兜底市场，累计申购1300亿沪深300ETF，给予沪深300指数极大的支撑。 三、纳指与标普未来情况不明 A股有国家队兜底，跌幅是有限，但是未来涨幅也有限。例如最近一年港股涨的不错，主要因为之前港股回 调的足够充分了；反观A股涨幅有限，是因为之前没有跌透。 纳指100指数（NDX ...

Group 1: Impact of US-China Competition on Markets - The types of US-China competition can be categorized into four main areas: trade, technology, finance, and geopolitical issues, with tariffs being the most impactful [4] - The technology competition began with significant events such as the ZTE incident in 2018 and the Huawei entity list in 2019, causing short-term market shocks of around 5%, while themes of self-sufficiency and countermeasures performed well structurally [4] - Financial competition included the designation of China as a currency manipulator in 2019 and the Foreign Companies Accountability Act from 2020 to 2022, which had a notable impact on Hong Kong stocks, leading to market shocks of 5-10% [4] - Geopolitical events, such as the closure of consulates and the Xinjiang cotton incident, typically resulted in short-lived market impacts, with recovery occurring within a week, while sectors like defense and self-sufficiency themes performed well [4] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The trade conflict initiated on March 23, 2018, with the US imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese imports, leading to a significant market downturn followed by a three-month period of volatility [11] - Following the escalation of tariffs in June 2018, the market experienced a deeper adjustment, with sectors like defense and technology showing relative resilience [14] - The recent imposition of a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on April 2, 2025, led to a rapid decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, with export-oriented sectors suffering while domestic demand sectors like agriculture and food performed well [25] Group 3: Technology Sector Developments - The US's ban on ZTE in April 2018 marked the beginning of a technology confrontation, leading to a quick release of risk aversion in the A-share market [30] - The arrest of Huawei's CFO in December 2018 escalated concerns about the globalization of Chinese tech firms, causing significant market declines, particularly in the TMT sector [33] - The implementation of the US Chip and Science Act in August 2022 and subsequent export controls have pressured the technology sector, but the narrative of self-sufficiency has gained traction, leading to potential recovery opportunities [42][44] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The closure of consulates in 2020 led to a brief change in risk appetite, but the market quickly recovered as tensions did not escalate further [50] - The "Xinjiang cotton" incident in 2021 had minimal impact on the overall market, instead boosting domestic brands like Anta and Li Ning [51] - The visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022 initially caused market declines, but subsequent recovery was driven by rising expectations for domestic semiconductor production [52] Group 5: Financial Sector Insights - The designation of China as a "currency manipulator" in August 2019 led to a market downturn, but a subsequent liquidity easing allowed for a rapid recovery [60] - The Foreign Companies Accountability Act from 2020 to 2022 primarily impacted US-listed Chinese companies and Hong Kong stocks, but the long-term effects were manageable as many companies opted for secondary listings in Hong Kong [61]

4月15日南向资金成交活跃股 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 从连续性进行统计， 有3只股获南向资金连续3天以上净买入，连续净买入天数较多的有美团-W、中国 海洋石油、泡泡玛特，连续净买入天数分别为8天、8天、3天。以其间净买入金额统计，净买入金额最 多的是美团-W，合计净买入为52.06亿港元，其次是中国海洋石油合计净买入为37.98亿港元，泡泡玛特 合计净买入为7.12亿港元。（数据宝） | 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额 | 成交净买入 | 今日涨跌幅 (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万港元) | | | | 02800 | 盈富基金 | 85491.47 | 79187.25 | | 0.18 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 462628.13 | 74791.35 | | 0.44 | | 03690 | 美团-W | 154323.45 | 52397.12 | | 0.62 | | 00941 | 中国移动 | 130224.82 | 40332.23 | | 1.47 | ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the macroeconomic situation, focusing on the impact of tariffs and the U.S. economy on global markets, particularly in the commodities sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. initiated a significant tariff increase of 34% on various imports, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both the U.S. and global economies. The tariffs are seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to force negotiations with other countries [2][3][4][5][6][7]. 2. **Economic Projections**: If the tariffs are fully implemented, it could lead to a 1.5% reduction in U.S. economic growth, pushing the economy towards a recession [7][8][9][10]. 3. **Tax Reform**: A proposed tax reform plan of approximately $4.5 trillion over ten years is expected to provide a marginal boost to the economy, potentially offsetting some negative impacts of the tariffs [8][9][10][11]. 4. **Debt Ceiling Concerns**: The U.S. government faces a looming debt ceiling crisis, which could impact the timing and implementation of the proposed tax reforms [9][10][11]. 5. **Global Trade Dynamics**: The tariffs are expected to disrupt global trade, with potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, leading to a decrease in global trade volume by 3-5% [26][27]. 6. **Commodity Market Outlook**: The commodities market is experiencing a split performance, with agricultural products and precious metals performing well, while industrial commodities like steel and energy are under pressure due to reduced demand and increased tariffs [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. 7. **China's Economic Resilience**: Despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs, China's economy is showing resilience with a 4% growth in social consumer goods revenue, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. 8. **Investment Strategies**: The conference suggests that investment strategies should focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as infrastructure and technology [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Inflation Concerns**: The tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices significantly, with estimates suggesting an average annual increase of $3,800 for U.S. households [26][27]. - **Labor Market Impacts**: The tariffs may negatively affect employment in manufacturing sectors, necessitating government intervention to stabilize job markets [17][18][19][20][21][22]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the economic pressures from U.S. tariffs, potentially leading to interest rate cuts [31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of tariffs, economic performance, and investment strategies in the current global landscape.

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][15] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][15] Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading, including the National Defense ETF (512670.SH), which benefits from China's strengthening military capabilities and ongoing innovations in defense technology [5][16] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ) is noted for its high dividend yield, supported by government policies encouraging long-term capital investment and stable dividend mechanisms [6][19] - The National Goods ETF (561130.SH) aligns with government initiatives to boost consumption, focusing on domestic brands and sectors benefiting from consumer upgrades [7][20] - The Morgan MSCI ETF (515770.SH) is positioned as a tool for global investors to access Chinese core assets, reflecting the current economic cycle and policy advantages in China [9][24]

港股大消费股尾盘走强，中国中免（601888）涨超20%，海底捞、华润啤酒、美团、周黑鸭等跟涨。 ...