Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with 2025 revenue projected at 556.7 billion and 2026 at 681.4 billion [5] - The company aims for a breakeven point in 2025, with a delivery target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, including 50,000 to 60,000 for export [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 16,747 million, with a year-on-year growth of 35.2%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 55,665 million, reflecting a growth rate of 73.1% [8] - The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,518 million in 2023 to a loss of 423 million in 2025, with a significant turnaround projected for 2027 with a profit of 1,921 million [8] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - Due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to CNY 55.67 billion and CNY 68.14 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at CNY 81.32 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 73.1%, 22.4%, and 19.3% [5] - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2024, with revenue of CNY 13.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155%, and a GAAP net profit of CNY 0.08 billion [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: CNY 16.75 billion (2023), CNY 32.16 billion (2024), CNY 55.67 billion (2025), CNY 68.14 billion (2026), and CNY 81.32 billion (2027) [8] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are: CNY -3.52 billion (2023), CNY -2.35 billion (2024), CNY -0.42 billion (2025), CNY 0.39 billion (2026), and CNY 1.92 billion (2027) [8] - The company aims for a gross margin of 10-11% in 2025 and targets to achieve breakeven for the year [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "Dual Credit Policy" has undergone multiple revisions since its inception in 2017 to promote energy conservation and the development of new energy vehicles in the automotive industry [3][4][7] - The latest revision aims to address issues such as inflexibility in the existing mechanism and significant fluctuations in credit prices, while also supporting the "dual carbon" goals [7][8] - The policy has significantly influenced the automotive sector, leading to a 25-fold increase in new energy vehicle production from 2016 to 2024 [20] Summary by Sections Policy Analysis - The "Dual Credit Policy" was first introduced in 2017 to create a market mechanism for promoting energy conservation and the development of new energy vehicles [4] - The policy has been revised multiple times to adapt to industry changes and improve its effectiveness [6][8] Historical Development of the Dual Credit Policy - The first version of the policy was implemented in 2018, with subsequent revisions in 2020 and 2023 to enhance its flexibility and effectiveness [5][6][7] - The 2023 revision introduced a credit pool system to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and improve policy stability [8][10] Implementation Effectiveness - The policy has led to a significant reduction in average fuel consumption, with the industry average dropping from 6.43 liters per 100 kilometers in 2016 to 3.78 liters in 2023 [20] - The total transaction amount of credits reached 25.2 billion yuan, indicating active participation from industry players [20] Future Requirements - The proposed requirements for 2026 and 2027 include setting new energy vehicle credit ratios at 48% and 58%, respectively [9][10] - Adjustments to the calculation methods for new energy vehicle credits are also planned to align with evolving industry standards [12][19]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 709 字，阅读全文约需 2 分钟 为了便于大家进一步及时掌握全国乘用车市场产销动态，并了解行业政策、价格、二手车、新能源汽 车、商用车市场、上海汽车市场等情况，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会秘书处现决定举行"2025 年3月乘用车市场分析发布会"，本次会议以 网上发布 的形式举行。 请大家关注微信订阅号：cpca2024和官网www.cpcaauto.com，届时报告将通过以上两种渠道发布。感谢各 位的支持！ 会议相关信息如下： 主办方： 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会 协办方： ——上海市信息中心； 2）2025年1月价格指数报告 ——安路勤； 3） 关于乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法的分析 ——中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会； ——科瑞咨询； 搜狐·汽车事业部 上海市信息中心 益普索（中国）咨询有限公司 上海安路勤企业管理咨询有限公司 上海福蓝汽车技术有限公司 广州威尔森信息科技有限公司 科瑞卓信（北京）咨询有限公司 广州市佩升前研市场信息咨询股份有限公司 会议报告网上发布时间： 2025年3月10日（星期一）下午 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is expected to see significant advancements in intelligent driving technology, particularly with Huawei's plans to launch L3 architecture by 2025, which will enhance the driving experience [6] - The introduction of new models such as the AITO M8 and M9, which feature advanced intelligent driving capabilities and improved energy efficiency, indicates a strong market potential for these vehicles [4][6] - Huawei's collaboration with various automotive manufacturers, including BYD and SAIC, is expected to strengthen the smart transformation of traditional automakers, expanding its influence in the market [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The automotive sector is projected to outperform the overall market, driven by technological advancements and new model launches [1][6] - The demand for intelligent driving solutions is increasing, with Huawei's L3 level driving technology expected to play a crucial role in this transition [6] New Model Launches - The AITO M8 is set to be priced between 368,000 to 458,000 yuan, while the M9 will start at 478,000 yuan, both featuring advanced intelligent driving configurations [4] - The new M9 model will have an engine power increase from 112 kW to 118 kW and a reduction in WLTC fuel consumption from 0.88 L/100 km to 0.62 L/100 km, showcasing improved energy efficiency [4] Strategic Collaborations - Huawei is expanding its partnerships with automotive manufacturers, moving from second-tier companies to leading brands like BYD and SAIC, enhancing its market presence [5] - The introduction of the "HI" and "Smart Selection" models by Huawei aims to empower car manufacturers in their smart transformation efforts [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's recent H-share placement of 1.3 billion shares at a price of 335.2 HKD per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, attracting significant long-term capital support, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects [4] - The report maintains and raises the earnings forecasts for BYD for 2024 and 2025-2026, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 40.02 billion, 53.18 billion (+8.1%), and 64.67 billion (+8.1) for the years 2024-2026, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24.0, 18.1, and 14.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting a positive long-term outlook for the company [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 424.06 billion, with projections of 602.32 billion for 2023, 740.11 billion for 2024, 900.71 billion for 2025, and 1,016.88 billion for 2026, showing a year-on-year growth of 96.2%, 42.0%, 22.9%, 21.7%, and 12.9% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.62 billion in 2022, expected to rise to 30.04 billion in 2023, 40.02 billion in 2024, 53.18 billion in 2025, and 64.67 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 445.9%, 80.7%, 33.2%, 32.9%, and 21.6% respectively [6] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 17.0% in 2022 to 21.8% in 2026, while net margin is expected to increase from 3.9% to 6.4% over the same period [6] Market Expansion and Product Development - BYD has entered over 100 countries and regions across six continents, with overseas sales increasing by 83% and 188% year-on-year in January and February 2025, respectively [5] - The company is focusing on high-level intelligent driving technology, with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan C" program enabling advanced features like highway navigation and valet parking, set to enhance product competitiveness [5] - The introduction of new models at competitive price points, including high-level intelligent driving features, is expected to solidify BYD's market position [5] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the acceleration of BYD's internationalization and intelligent business development, with significant capacity expansion in Hungary and Brazil, and agreements signed for factories in Indonesia and Turkey [5] - The company plans to fully switch to DM5.0 technology and launch a new generation of blade batteries, with energy density expected to increase by over 35%, enhancing vehicle range and safety [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's recent H-share placement of 1.3 billion shares at a price of HKD 335.2 per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, indicating strong confidence from global investors in the company's growth prospects [4] - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with projections of CNY 400.2 billion, CNY 531.8 billion (up 8.1%), and CNY 646.7 billion (up 8.1%) respectively, leading to a corresponding PE ratio of 24.0, 18.1, and 14.9 times [4] - BYD's overseas sales have shown remarkable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 83% in January and 188% in February 2025, indicating a strong expansion in international markets [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 602.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,016.9 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 30.0 billion in 2023 to CNY 64.7 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 21.6% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 21.8% in 2026, while the net margin is expected to rise from 5.0% to 6.4% over the same period [6]

2 证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 2月第3周乘用车同比+42.3%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年3月4日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.2.24-2025.3.2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：二月第三周交强险36.8万辆（同/环比+42.3%/+9.6%）。本周SW汽 车指数-2.7%，细分板块涨跌幅排序: SW商用载客车(+3.7%) ＞ 重卡指数(-0.7%)> S W摩托车及其他(-1.0%)> SW汽车零部件(-2.2%)> SW汽车(-2.7%)> SＷ商用载货车(- 3.5%) > SW乘用车(-4.4%) 。本周已覆盖标的明阳科技、苏轴股份、小鹏汽车-W、威 迈斯和理想汽车-W涨幅较好。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发二月深圳NOA试驾报告、乘用车月报、重卡月报。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）特斯拉在中国正式推出FSD，国内智能化进程加速；2）小鹏 2月交付新车30453台，同比+570%；3）理想公布L改款规划，5月智驾焕新版Pro/ M ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an update on the motorcycle industry data for January 2025, highlighting significant sales growth in certain segments and the overall market trends [1][3]. January Data Observation - The sales of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles with a displacement of 250cc reached 59,000 units in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.9% [1]. - Breakdown of sales by displacement: - For 250ml < displacement ≤ 400ml: 35,000 units sold, up 89.7% year-on-year, down 9.6% month-on-month [1]. - For 400ml < displacement ≤ 500ml: 10,000 units sold, down 18.1% year-on-year, down 51.1% month-on-month [1]. - For 500ml < displacement ≤ 800ml: 12,000 units sold, up 47.9% year-on-year, up 57.9% month-on-month, driven by new multi-cylinder high-end models [1]. Recent Industry Insights - Recommended core investment portfolio includes BYD, Geely Automobile, XPeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, Bertley, Top Group, New Spring Co., and Huguang Co. [3]. - Tesla's Autopilot city navigation feature has been rolled out in China, marking a significant step in the localization of fully autonomous driving technology [3][4]. - The demand for passenger vehicles has shown strong recovery, with notable sales figures for various companies in February, including BYD's record high exports [5]. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the focus is on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and globalization, recommending BYD, Geely, XPeng, SAIC Group, and Seres [6]. - In the motorcycle sector, the recommendation is to focus on leading companies in the mid-to-large displacement category, particularly Chuanfeng Power [6].

► 本周数据： 2025年2月第4周（2.17-2.23）乘用车销量37.0万辆，同比+41.7%，环比+9.1%；新能源乘用车销量20.3万辆，同比+83.3%，环比+18.1%；新能源渗透 率54.8%，环比+4.2pct。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现弱于市场 本周（ 2 月 24-28 日） A 股汽车板块下跌 1.13% ，在申万子行业中排名第 19 位，表现弱于沪深 300 （ -1.01% ）。细分板块中，商用载客车、摩托车 及其他分别上涨 1.93% 、 0.83% ，汽车零部件、乘用车、汽车服务、商用载货车分别下跌 0.35% 、 2.13% 、 2.33% 、 5.43% 。 ► 本周观点： 本月推荐核心组合 【 比亚迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力 】 。 ► 特斯拉Autopilot城市领航开启推送 智驾全面加速。 2月25日，特斯拉Autopilot城市领航功能在中国分批次推送， FSD（完全自动驾驶）技术首次本土化落地。本次更新虽被定位为L2级"智能辅助驾驶"，但新增 路口自动转向、智能变道等能力，限已购买6.4万元FSD服务且 ...