1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon intensifies during the wet season, and it maintains a downward trend. The polysilicon market is in a bottom - capacity - reduction cycle, and the fundamentals of both industries are currently weak [1][3] - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure remains due to the expected resumption of production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from downstream polysilicon is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is marginally stabilizing, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy is stable. The inventory shows no obvious signs of reduction, so it should be treated bearishly [2][4] - For polysilicon, the production has bottomed out and stabilized, with some resumption of production expected in the southwest. The terminal installation is marginally weakening, and inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to operate within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply - side - The spot price of East China non - oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. In May, the industrial silicon output dropped to 290,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April. Xinjiang reduced production by about 10,000 tons. In the southwest, Sichuan has resumed production to about 15,000 tons, and Yunnan is still operating at a low level, with expected increased operation in June. Some Xinjiang manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production again, and the supply - side pressure persists [2] Downstream Demand - side - Polysilicon: In April, the polysilicon output stabilized at 95,000 tons. As the photovoltaic rush - installation tide nears its end, the demand for polysilicon in the industrial chain is expected to decline, and there is a possibility of further production cuts, leading to a marginal weakening of the demand for industrial silicon [2] - Organic silicon: Monomer manufacturers have initiated joint production cuts. Recently, the DMC inventory has significantly decreased, the DMC price has stabilized and rebounded, and the production - cut effect is evident. The demand for industrial silicon shows marginal signs of stabilization [2] - Alloy silicon: The price is stable, but the consumption is low and cannot support the market. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory increased by 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 589,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply - side - The production cuts of polysilicon have basically been priced in, and the market has returned to fundamental logic. In April, the polysilicon output slightly dropped to 95,000 tons. Currently, polysilicon manufacturers are still producing according to quotas. With the weakening downstream demand expectation, the output will not fluctuate significantly. As the southwest wet season approaches, some manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production, but limited by the polysilicon price, the output is expected to grow slowly [3] Downstream Demand - side - Silicon wafers: There is a trend of production cuts. Currently, they are mainly digesting polysilicon inventory. The silicon wafer price has slightly weakened, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly [3] - Solar cells and modules: The production schedules have also decreased. The rush - installation period has ended. With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies, the photovoltaic industry will accelerate reshuffling, and the demand for polysilicon will decline significantly [3] Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 250,000 tons, and the entire industrial - chain inventory is equivalent to nearly 500,000 tons. The inventory - reduction pressure is high [3]

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon is experiencing inventory accumulation, and the futures market continues to decline. For polysilicon, the recommended strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2507) has a closing price of 7,160 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, 755 yuan compared to T - 5, and 1,620 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume is 456,239 lots, down 83,444 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 208,497 lots, down 15,649 lots from T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2507) has a closing price of 35,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan compared to T - 1, and a decrease of 490 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume is 150,575 lots, an increase of 5,236 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 77,400 lots, down 871 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract for industrial silicon is -20 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short spread is 46.3 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the spread is 1795.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot premium of industrial silicon (against different grades) shows various changes, while the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) is -895 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price and Profit**: - The price of industrial silicon in different regions (e.g., East China's oxygen - passing Si5530 at 8300 yuan/ton, Yunnan's Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton) and polysilicon (N - type recycled material at 36500 yuan/ton) has different trends. - The profit of silicon plants (e.g., Xinjiang's new standard 553 at -4108 yuan/ton, Yunnan's new standard 553 at -7369 yuan/ton) and polysilicon enterprises (-4.9 yuan/kg) also shows different changes [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 58.9 million tons, enterprise inventory is 23.8 million tons, and industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 82.7 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 31.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons compared to T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 27.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, Xinjiang's silicon ore is 400 yuan/ton, and its price has decreased by 20 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry Chain**: - The prices of products in the polysilicon photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also show different degrees of decline. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.94 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.24 yuan compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Prices and Profits in Other Related Industries**: - In the organic silicon industry, the price of DMC is 11450 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is -135 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy industry, the price of ADC12 is 20200 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is -90 yuan/ton [2]. **Macro and Industry News** - The 1 660MW unit of Qiya Xinjiang Group's Changdong Power Generation 2×660MW ultra - supercritical unit has completed the blow - pipe work on May 4, 2025, and successfully carried out the first impulse on May 27, 2025, and is now capable of generating electricity. The 2 unit is under construction, and after the two units are put into operation, the annual power generation will be nearly 7.5 billion kWh [2][4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical role of industrial silicon in key industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronics, amidst a rapidly changing global energy structure and industrial upgrades. It highlights the challenges faced by industrial silicon producers due to oversupply and price volatility, and emphasizes the potential of financial derivatives for risk management and price discovery in this context [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Industrial silicon capacity has expanded rapidly, with supply growth outpacing demand, leading to periodic oversupply and significant price fluctuations [1]. - The production and sales models of industrial silicon companies exhibit notable regional characteristics, with different procurement strategies based on local resource availability [1]. Group 2: Financial Derivatives Application - The article focuses on the practical application of futures and options in optimizing sales prices and managing inventory in the context of industrial silicon supply-demand mismatches [2]. - Companies can utilize options markets to capture time value during the sales cycle, enhancing their competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Case Study - A case study illustrates a northern factory's strategy to manage inventory and sales pressure by locking in sales prices through futures and selling call options to reduce holding costs [2][3]. - On April 10, 2025, the factory locked in a sales price of 9600 yuan/ton for 1000 tons of industrial silicon, while also selling call options to mitigate inventory costs [4]. Group 4: Financial Outcomes - The factory achieved a profit of 1300 yuan/ton from futures trading and received an additional 166 yuan/ton from selling call options, effectively lowering its holding costs [3][4][5]. - The financial derivatives strategy not only provided a hedge but also generated extra income, demonstrating the effectiveness of such tools in the industrial silicon sector [3][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The application of financial derivatives in the industrial silicon industry is expected to expand, becoming a key driver for optimizing risk management and resource allocation efficiency [5]. - This strategic approach is anticipated to help the industry seize development opportunities in the context of global energy transition and achieve high-quality growth [5].

Core Insights - In May 2025, both spot and futures prices for industrial silicon experienced significant declines, with spot prices dropping to 7556 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.41% from April, and futures prices hitting a low of 7130 CNY/ton, down 16.45% [1] Supply and Demand - Industrial silicon supply slightly decreased in May to approximately 303,000 tons, a 4% month-over-month decline, primarily due to maintenance in Xinjiang and capacity adjustments in Yunnan and Gansu [1] - June is expected to see an increase in production from Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, potentially exceeding 350,000 tons [1] - Demand from organic silicon enterprises showed a minor recovery in May, with an expected increase of 0.5 thousand tons, although procurement plans remain modest [1] - Export figures for April were 60,500 tons, reflecting a 1.64% month-over-month increase but a 9.19% year-over-year decrease, with total exports from January to April at 216,700 tons, down 6.54% year-over-year [1] Cost and Profitability - In June, companies in Sichuan are expected to benefit from lower electricity prices during the wet season, leading to a noticeable reduction in costs, while Yunnan's electricity prices remain relatively stable with weak operational intentions [1] - The prices of silicon stone and silicon coal have decreased, with Taiwan's焦中标价 dropping to 101 USD/ton [1] - May saw a decline in gross margins, with most manufacturers experiencing negative cash costs [1] Inventory and Market Outlook - In May, inventory levels shifted towards the market, leading to a mid-month rebound in futures prices, while factories in the northwest engaged in hedging, resulting in a transfer of inventory from factories to non-standard warehouses [1] - The industry outlook for profitability remains pessimistic, with expected significant production increases in June and high inventory levels contributing to new lows in futures prices [1] - Recommendations for investors include shorting the 2508 futures contract or selling out-of-the-money call options, while traders or upstream companies are advised to sell call options to maintain inventory [1]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 价格快速下杀，关注供给端变化 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂部分复产，但由于工业硅价格快速下跌，市场亦传言 其后续复产规划将暂且搁置。6 月西南进入丰水期后，预计仍 有少量工厂计划复产。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅开工 率回升，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需采购。 多晶硅厂家近期粉单招标价格下跌至 8800-9000 元/吨，有机硅 亦以 521#替代 421#，521#采购价格在 8300-8400 元/吨。目前 盘面价格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，基差快速走强，部分贸 易商开始陆续囤货，后续关注供给端的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 6 月签单逐步展开，现货成交价格略有下调。考虑龙头企业率 先复产乐山产能，6 月硅片排产上调至 9.3 万吨。此外，市场 传言某新疆二三线硅料厂二期产能有复产计划，后续根据实际 进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。根据 SMM，截至 5 月 29 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+1 万吨。近期下游备货 使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为前期原材料库存较 高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料囤货。在多晶硅现 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-30 库存压力仍较大，工业硅盘面弱势探底 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-29，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡探底，主力合约2507开于7320元/吨，最后收于7215元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-135）元/吨，变化（-1.84）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓224146手，2025-05-29仓单总数为63868手，较 前一日变化-418手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格弱稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8500（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9300 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7800-8000（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7800-8000（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天 津、新疆、上海、西北地区硅价也部分走低。四川地区今日硅价暂稳。 97硅今日价格同样走低。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11400-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，随着西北单体企业本周装置结束检 修恢复生产，行业单体企业开工率有所上升，但端午节后，开工预计将受部分单体企业检修周期到来继续下降。 SMM统计5月29日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market. The industrial silicon futures have witnessed panic trading, and the trading volume remains high. For medium - and long - term operations, a high - short strategy is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,215 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 226,069 lots, down 1,138 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 11,659 lots, up 5,965 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 64,286 lots, down 340 lots; the spread between the July - August contracts is - 25, up 10 [3] 现货 Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 1,235 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [3] 产业 Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [3] 下游 Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,000 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.01 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.31%, down 0.26 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [3] 行业 News - On May 14, at the request of US companies Ferroglobe USA, Inc. and Mississippi Silicon LLC on April 24, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced anti - dumping investigations on imported silicon metal from Angola, Australia, Laos, and Norway, and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from Australia, Laos, Norway, and Thailand [3] 观点总结 - As the wet season approaches in Yunnan and Sichuan, the electricity cost advantage emerges, but the southwest region has no intention to resume work. The spot price of the organic silicon market continues to decline, and enterprises' procurement and stocking enthusiasm is insufficient. The mainstream polysilicon enterprises maintain stable production, but the industry is operating at a reduced load. In the aluminum alloy field, the terminal consumer electronics and automotive industries have certain demand support, but the procurement scale has not increased significantly. The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a downward trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].