Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the high - level oscillation of crude oil prices and the downward revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations suppress precious metals. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1121.50, the closing price yesterday was 1119.16, with a decline of 2.34 and a decline rate of - 0.21%. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1118.340, the closing price yesterday was 1116.200, with a decline of 2.140 and a decline rate of - 0.19%. For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 20301, the closing price yesterday was 20308, with an increase of 7 and an increase rate of 0.03%. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 20380, the closing price yesterday was 20371, with a decline of 9 and a decline rate of - 0.04% [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2606 was 148093, and the trading volume was 71848. The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2604 was 90930, and the trading volume was 146932. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 218466, and the trading volume was 550109. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2604 was 73981, and the trading volume was 74236 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premium of Shanghai Gold 2606 was - 3.68, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 was - 0.72. The spot premium of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 22, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 41 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1114.99, the closing price yesterday was 1115.48, with an increase of 0.49 and an increase rate of 0.04%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5003.82, the closing price yesterday was 5006.63, with an increase of 2.81 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 20077, the closing price yesterday was 20330, with an increase of 253 and an increase rate of 1.26%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 80.73, the closing price yesterday was 79.36, with a decline of 1.37 and a decline rate of - 1.70% [2]. - **Price Differences**: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 was 2.96, and the previous value was 3.16. The current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 63.00, and the previous value was - 79.00. The current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 54.87, and the previous value was 55.54. The current value of Shanghai Gold/London Gold was 1.01, and the previous value was 1.00. The current value of Shanghai Silver/London Silver was 1.16, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. Inventory - **Changes**: The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105,315 kg, a decrease of 102 kg from the previous value. The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 353,763 kg, an increase of 23055 kg from the previous value. The current value of the COMEX gold inventory was 32,236,075 troy ounces, a decrease of 160323 troy ounces from the previous value. The current value of the COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 troy ounces, a decrease of 1689570 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. Related Derivatives - **ETF Positions and CFTC Net Positions**: The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF position was 1,070 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value. The current value of the SLV Silver ETF position was 15,390 tons, an increase of 34 tons from the previous value. The current value of the CFTC speculator's net position in gold was 163,132, an increase of 2987 from the previous value. The current value of the CFTC speculator's net position in silver was 24,578, an increase of 1240 from the previous value [2]. Macro News - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 98.9%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 0%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point increase is 1.1%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut by April is 3.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point increase is 1.1%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut by June is 78.1% [3]. - **Iranian Incidents**: Iran has designated multiple replacement candidates for key national positions. Iran's President confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said Larijani and Basij militia commander Suleimani were killed in an Israeli air - strike [3][4]. - **US - Related News**: US President Trump criticized his allies, threatened to withdraw from NATO, and the US will relax sanctions on Venezuela during the Iran war to release more oil resources [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on various futures markets. Uncertainties in supply, demand, and costs are driving market volatility. For example, the conflict has led to concerns about energy supply, which in turn affects the prices of commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and metals [121][67]. - Different sectors show different trends based on their own fundamentals. For instance, in the agricultural sector, factors like supply and demand, harvest conditions, and policy changes influence prices. In the industrial sector, energy costs, production capacity, and market demand play crucial roles [26][56]. - Market sentiment is cautious due to the uncertainties brought by geopolitical conflicts. Investors are closely watching the development of the situation and adjusting their investment strategies accordingly [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Risk - aversion sentiment is rising. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and the performance of the AI sector. Indexes are expected to be volatile, and trading strategies include grid operations, IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buying options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market has slightly stabilized. With the central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity, the market funds are in a narrow - range fluctuation. Short - term short positions are recommended to stop losses and then wait and see [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is uncertain, and the market is in a high - level shock. Fundamental factors are mostly negative, and trading strategies include short - term bearish unilateral operations, MRM09 spread narrowing arbitrage, and buying put options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are fluctuating. International sugar production is expected to be lower than previously estimated, while domestic sugar production is likely to increase. Trading strategies include short - term bullish unilateral operations and selling put options [30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oils are expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus, and factors such as palm oil inventory and soybean arrival time affect the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The market is in a high - level shock. The increase in millet auctions and other factors influence the price. Trading strategies include a bullish view on the 05 corn contract on the external market and a high - level shock view on the domestic 05 corn contract [35][36][37]. - **Hogs**: The出栏 pressure is increasing, and prices are continuing to decline. Feed prices and high inventory levels are the main factors. Trading strategies include short - selling the near - month contract and LH59 reverse arbitrage [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong - level shock. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill still has profits. Trading strategies include closing long positions in the 05 peanut contract and selling pk605 - P - 7700 options [40][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and egg prices are mainly stable. The market is in a consumption off - season, and it is recommended to short the June contract [43][45][46]. - **Apples**: The inventory reduction speed is acceptable, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The 5 - month contract is recommended to be exited and observed, and attention can be paid to the 10 - month contract [47][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is in a slightly bullish shock. The external market is rising, and domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [50][51][52]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials provide support, and steel prices are in a shock. The downstream demand is seasonally recovering, but the inventory is still accumulating. The price is affected by overseas and raw material factors and is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The price is mainly affected by oil and gas prices, and it is recommended to take a cautious approach [60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply disturbance is increasing, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices for spot enterprises. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and the supply is relatively loose [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The energy cost is being transmitted, and the positive feedback continues. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are in a positive feedback situation, and it is recommended to hold the remaining long positions [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and gold and silver prices are under pressure and in a shock. The market is cautious due to the conflict and inflation concerns. It is recommended to wait and see for conservative investors and take a short - term bearish approach for aggressive investors [67][68][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Attention should be paid to whether secondary inflation affects the interest - rate cut path. The market is affected by energy - related inflation concerns and the FOMC meeting. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities for platinum [71][72]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical risks continue to disturb, and copper prices are in a continuous shock. The supply and demand situation and the impact of the Middle East conflict on production are the main factors [74]. - **Alumina**: Concerns about the supply of bauxite in Guinea have increased the price volatility. The policy of Guinea is uncertain, and the price may be strong in the short term [75][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a decrease in supply, and macro risks should be vigilant. The production reduction in the Middle East and Mozambique affects the market, and it is recommended to be bullish at low prices [80][82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the aluminum industry, and the price is affected by the aluminum price [83]. - **Zinc**: The domestic social inventory is continuously accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is insufficient. The price may be in a weak shock in the short term [84][85]. - **Lead**: The stop - loss line should be raised to protect profits. The social inventory is increasing, and the price is in a weak shock. It is recommended to hold long positions and raise the stop - loss line [87][89]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The price is affected by the copper price and the production situation of nickel mines. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize before considering long positions [90]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. The overseas manufacturing contraction and the cost of nickel mines affect the price. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize [95]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range shock. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a range [97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a short - term shock and waiting for policy guidance. The production is increasing, and the price is affected by the policy and market supply and demand [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is in a high - level shock. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [104]. - **Tin**: The situation in the US - Iran conflict is unclear, and the tin price is in a range shock. The supply from Myanmar and the impact of the Middle East conflict are the main factors [106][107]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's April first - week quotation has increased. The market is affected by fuel prices and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see [109][110]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The war in the Middle East continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur oils may significantly affect the market by ship type. The geopolitical conflict affects the fuel price and shipping cost, and the market is expected to be affected in the long - term [112][113]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The news of the expansion of the Chinese carbon market has spread, and the negative sentiment in the EU carbon market has affected the carbon price decline. The Chinese carbon market may be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market is expected to be in a shock [114][115][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The attack on Middle East energy facilities has increased supply concerns. The price is expected to be bullish at a high level [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The reduction of the main refineries' production has increased, and concerns about raw materials continue. The price is expected to be strong, but the demand is weak [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical drive continues, and the cost is in a high - level shock. The supply is expected to be tightened, and the demand in Singapore may increase [127][128]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation remains tense, and the price is in a strong - level shock. It follows the oil price, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk continues, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply in Qatar is affected, and the price is expected to rise [132][133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: There is an expected unplanned reduction in supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [135][136][137]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is short, and the fundamentals are good. The price is affected by the supply from the Middle East, and the risk of a decline should be guarded against [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants are resuming production. The supply and demand structure is improving, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [141][142][143]. - **Short - fiber**: The sales are still weak. The production and sales are not good, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [144]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. The production and delivery of some enterprises are uncertain, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [146][147]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. The cost is rising, and the supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [148][149]. - **Plastic PP**: The import profit of PP has reached a new low. The price of L and PP is affected by the macro situation and supply - demand factors. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss levels [150][151][153]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a shock. The supply is shrinking, the export is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a shock [154][155]. - **PVC**: It is firm at a high level. The supply is expected to decrease at home and abroad, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [157]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weak direction. The supply is increasing, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock and weak [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a wide - range shock with a weak direction. The demand is affected by the real - estate market, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock and weak [163][164]. - **Methanol**: It is rising strongly. The production in Iran is affected, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long at low prices [165]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price is expected to be in a shock [167]. - **Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the pulp price is weakly adjusted. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is affected by the macro situation [172][173]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The sales are average, and the market is based on rigid demand. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the price is expected to be weak [176]. - **Logs**: The import cost is rising, supporting the upward movement of the market. The cost is rising, but the supply - demand balance limits the increase [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: The national dry - rubber inventory is continuously increasing. The inventory increase is a negative factor, and it is recommended to wait and see [182][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene is continuously improving. The profit increase is a positive factor, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [188][189][190].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, etc., reflecting the impact of geopolitical conflicts and economic policies on the market. 3. Summary of Each Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Market Trends - Domestic futures: As of 23:00 on March 18, domestic futures were mixed. Methanol rose over 4%, and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), bottle chips, and polypropylene rose over 2% [4]. - International futures: WTI crude oil rose 2.7% to $96.02/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 3.35% to $103.57/barrel; COMEX gold rose 0.18% to $5011.30/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.51% to $79.46/ounce; most London base metals declined, with LME lead rising 1.10% to $1926.0/ton [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Electricity consumption: From January to February, the total social electricity consumption was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% [8]. - Fiscal policy: In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, mainly in five aspects [8]. - Geopolitical events: The "Ford" aircraft carrier entered the tenth month of deployment; Houthi rebels may attack Red Sea oil tankers; the EU will restart the approval process for the US - EU trade agreement; the Iranian president confirmed the death of Ali Larijani; Trump was angry about allies' reluctance to participate in the Strait of Hormuz escort; ADP reported that private - sector employers added an average of 9000 jobs per week in four weeks [8][9][12][13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Fuel oil sales: In February, the sales volume of marine fuel oil at Fujairah Port in the UAE hit a monthly record low, and it is expected to decline further in March [15]. - Strait of Hormuz issue: The US Secretary of State urged South Korea to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Iran attacked a large - scale natural gas field in the UAE [15]. - Warehouse setting: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange set several companies as designated propylene delivery warehouses and factories [15]. - Fertilizer plant: A large - scale Russian nitrogen fertilizer plant will suspend production until May [17]. Metal Futures - Lithium ore auction: On March 17, the auction of spodumene concentrate ended, with a transaction price of RMB 15,617/ton [19]. - Company response: GEM responded to the landslide accident in Indonesia, stating that the impact on the overall operation was small [19]. - Aluminum inventory: On March 17, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.56% from the previous day, 2.66% in a week, and 8.56% in a month [19]. - Mining project: BHP submitted a new copper concentrator project, with an investment of $4.4 - 5.9 billion, aiming to produce 220,000 - 260,000 tons of copper annually [20]. Black - Series Futures - Iron ore inventory: From March 9 - 15, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 53,000 tons, still slightly higher than the average since the beginning of the year [22]. - Mine penalty: The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Anyang Yong'an Hetuo Coal Mine to suspend production for 1 day [22]. Agricultural Futures - Soybean harvest: As of March 15, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 59.2%, slower than the same period last year [25]. - Soybean supply: Market concerns about a shortage of imported soybeans in China from March to April led to increased soybean meal trading volume and decreased inventory [25]. - Sugar production: As of March 15, India's sugar production reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.5% [26]. - Biofuel: Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to a "farm celebration"; the US EPA submitted biofuel blending quota drafts to the White House [26]. - Palm oil export: The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 was 443,812 tons, a 12.68% increase from the same period last month [27]. Financial Market Stock Market - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to 4049.91 points, with over 4500 stocks falling, and the market turnover was 2.22 trillion yuan [29]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.13% to 25,868.54 points; southbound funds sold over HK$11 billion [30]. - Fund approval: The CSRC approved 15 new hard - tech theme funds [30]. - IPO rumor: The rumor that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will restrict red - chip companies in IPO is untrue [31]. - Insurance investment: Insurance funds participated in the cornerstone investment of 10 Hong Kong IPO companies, with a total subscription of about HK$1.558 billion [31]. - Korean investment: Korean investors have been net buyers of A - shares in emerging sectors such as semiconductors [31]. - International stocks: US stocks rose slightly; European stocks rose across the board; most Asian - Pacific stocks rose, except for the Japanese stock market [38][39]. Industry News - Beidou system: The Beidou satellite navigation system will be upgraded in orbit [32]. - Real estate: The property market in core cities showed a "spring boom" [33]. - Electricity consumption: From January to February, the social electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with high growth in charging and Internet data services [33]. - AI regulation: Beijing's Cyberspace Administration launched an AI rectification campaign [33]. Overseas News - US official resignation: The director of the US National Counterterrorism Center resigned due to the Iran war [34]. - Iran situation: Iran's regime is still stable but more hard - line [34]. - Military assistance: Ukrainian experts will assist Gulf countries in drone defense [34]. - Interest rate decisions: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points; the Central Bank of Indonesia kept interest rates unchanged [36][37]. - Trade agreement: The EU will restart the approval process for the US - EU trade agreement [37]. Commodity Market - Oil prices: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [41]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold rose and COMEX silver fell due to multiple factors [41]. - Base metals: Most London base metals declined [41]. - Oil sanctions: The US may further relax sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry [42]. - Port suspension: Fujairah Port in the UAE suspended oil loading [42]. Bond Market - Chinese bonds: The inter - bank bond market recovered, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined [44]. - US bonds: The yields of US bonds were mixed [44]. Foreign Exchange Market - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [45]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [45]. Upcoming Events - Central bank operations: The central bank has 26.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase due; the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, and the Central Bank of Brazil will announce interest rate decisions [47]. - Conferences: The 2026 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Conference press conference will be held; the NVIDIA GTC Conference will take place [47]. - New stock listing: Beixinchuangxing will be officially listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange [47]. - Earnings reports: Tencent Holdings, Geely Auto, Chery Automobile, Huazhu Group, and Micron Technology will release earnings reports [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, short - term shock is on the strong side. The basis is at a premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Expected to fluctuate between 4880 and 4980. US soybeans are in a short - term strong shock, and domestic soybeans maintain a high - level shock. The basis is at a discount, inventory is relatively high, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal (M2605) is in the range of 3040 - 3100, and Soybeans (A2605) is in the range of 4880 - 4980. The market is affected by factors such as US - China trade agreements, South American weather, and Middle - East conflicts [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still variables in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in March. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high, and it was in a short - term strong shock, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and the follow - up of US - China trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive factors**: Preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations, no pressure on soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and variable weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - **Negative factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in March, and expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions. - **Soybeans** - **Positive factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Negative factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses the price [14][15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The average transaction price and volume from March 9th to 17th are presented, and the price of soybean meal futures rebounded, with the spot price relatively strong and the premium at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased from a low level, and short - term stocking demand increased [16][23][25]. - **Soybeans**: The futures and spot prices from March 10th to 17th are presented, and the soybean inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly at a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the shock of US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [18][50][56]. 3.5 Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and capital flowed in [9][11]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [33]. 3.7 Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: Data on the sowing and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [34]. - **2024 US**: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [39][40]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [41]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [42]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From July 2025 to February 2026, data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, Brazilian soybean output, and Argentine soybean output are provided [44]. 3.9 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year. The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit deficit expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [45][47][58][60][62][64][66].

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交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-18燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：尽管380CST高硫燃料油的现货溢价有所上升，但亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构出现走弱。不过交易商预计，短 期内中东战争和区域内出口限制将继续推高燃料油基本面；由于未来几周来自西方的套利船货流入量持续锐减，新加坡 低硫燃料油库存在3月底和4月将出现明显的下降；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油749.07美元/吨，基差为468元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为923.46美元/吨，基差为798元/吨， 现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油3月11日当周库存为2449.9万桶，减少125万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 18, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be strong today due to factors such as cost support, strong external crude oil prices, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and external crude oil prices are continuously strong. On the supply and demand side, the demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to a large number of downstream enterprises waiting and limited transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8300 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -196, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.3%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 625,000 tons (+31,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will trend strongly today [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and external crude oil prices are continuously strong. On the supply and demand side, multiple PDH units have been shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8700 (-150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 29, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 658,000 tons (+3,000), which is neutral [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. The Iranian situation has affected oil prices, external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will trend strongly today [7] - **Leveraging Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [8] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 8300 (-100), the price of the 05 contract is 8496 (-181), the basis is -196, the import price in US dollars is 866 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7337 (unchanged), and the import price difference is 963 (-100). The warehouse receipt is 7851 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 625,000 tons, and the social inventory is 619,000 tons (-44,000) [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 8700 (-150), the price of the 05 contract is 8671 (-186), the basis is 29, the import price in US dollars is 1180 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 9943 (unchanged), and the import price difference is -1243 (-150). The warehouse receipt is 17,670 (-1757), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 658,000 tons, and the social inventory is 312,000 tons (-12,000) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive. The global consumption in the 26/27 period is 25 million tons, and the production is 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by more than 10%. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn in December also increased year - on - year. The basis shows a premium over futures, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are long, but the net long positions are decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. However, there may be a technical correction in the later stage if there is no new positive news [4]. - The positive factors include the regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, downstream restocking before the Spring Festival, the reduction of export tariffs to the US, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [5]. - The negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, the increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - There is no information about the previous day review in the provided content. 3.2 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of cotton are analyzed from multiple aspects. The global and domestic supply - demand data are presented, including production, consumption, and inventory. The basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions are also considered. The report points out that although there are current positive factors, there may be a technical correction in the later stage [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Data**: According to ICAC, in the 26/27 period, global cotton consumption is 25 million tons, and production is 24.8 million tons. The USDA March report shows that in the 25/26 period, the production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 period shows a production of 6.64 million tons, an import of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The data shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26, and the monthly and year - on - year changes [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: Compares the 2025/26 and 2026/27 periods, showing that the production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4%, mainly from Brazil and the US; the consumption is relatively stable; the ending inventory is expected to decline by 1%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline slightly [13]. - **Domestic Cotton Data**: The Ministry of Agriculture's data on China's cotton from 2024/25 to 2025/26 includes sowing area, yield, import, consumption, ending inventory, and price range [15]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, and both long - and short - positions increasing, with the long - positions increasing slightly more. Overall, it was a situation of increasing volume and falling prices. The market may experience a volatile weakening in the short term. - Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined, operating in the weak zone with intensified overselling. The trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased, the short - position strength increased, and the short - position advantage expanded. - The recommended operation for Shanghai Zinc ZN2605 is to expect a volatile weakening [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1197000 tons, consumption was 1168000 tons, with a supply surplus of 29000 tons. From January to November 2025, global zinc plate production was 12756100 tons, consumption was 13106500 tons, with a supply shortage of 350400 tons. In November 2025, global zinc mine production was 1069000 tons. From January to November 2025, global zinc mine production was 12141900 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 23900, with a basis of + 170, a bullish factor [2]. - On March 17, LME zinc inventory increased by 20875 tons to 118375 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 574 tons to 98670 tons compared to the previous day, a bearish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, a bearish factor [2]. - The main positions were net long, with an increase in long - positions, a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 17 - The report provides quotes for zinc futures contracts with different delivery months, including pre - settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest and its changes. For example, for the 2604 contract, the pre - settlement price was 24015, the closing price was 23700, with a price change of - 315, and the trading volume was 81736 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 17 - The spot TC of zinc concentrate was 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Anhui, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang increased, with prices ranging from 23810 - 23985 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/5 - 2026/3/16) - From March 5 to March 16, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in China's main markets increased from 21.36 million tons to 23.62 million tons. Compared with March 9, the inventory increased by 1.79 million tons, and compared with March 12, it increased by 0.51 million tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 17 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE on March 17 were 98670 tons, with an increase of 574 tons, mainly from the increase in Guangdong's warrants [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 17 - The previous day's LME zinc inventory was 97500 tons, with an inflow of 21650 tons, an outflow of 775 tons, and the current inventory was 118375 tons, an increase of 20875 tons. The registered warrants were 112225 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 6150 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 5.20% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 17 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Longnan was 20560 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan/ton, while in Hechi and Chifeng, it was 20460 yuan/ton, also with an increase of 60 yuan/ton [9]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 17 - The price of 0 zinc ingots of different brands, such as Torch, Huxin, and Zai, increased by 70 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 23580 - 24580 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February was 468700 tons, the actual production was 470900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production in March was 490200 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 17 - The processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 1500 yuan/metal ton, while in some regions like Hechi, the average processing fee was 1600 yuan/metal ton. The processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate at the port was 20 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 17 - The report shows the trading volume, long - position, and short - position rankings of different members. For example, CITIC Futures ranked first in trading volume with 15494 lots and an increase of 1931 lots. In terms of long - positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 12864 lots but a decrease of 217 lots. In terms of short - positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9323 lots and an increase of 93 lots [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a slightly bullish trend. The price of coke is expected to be stable with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term [2][6] - Factors contributing to the coking coal price trend include stable coal supply, increased procurement of some coking enterprises and coal washing plants, and support from rising steel billet prices. For coke, factors include the cost support from the rebound of coking coal price, increased demand from downstream steel mills, and improved market demand [2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Regional mainstream large mines are operating normally, with stable coal supply. As terminal prices and the futures market rebound, raw material sentiment has improved. Some coking enterprises and coal washing plants have increased procurement of cost - effective coal, and the market price shows more increases than decreases. The short - term coking coal price is volatile and slightly bullish [2] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1210, and the basis is 34, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week, including 820 tons in steel mills, 258 tons in ports, and 893 tons in independent coking enterprises [2] - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3] - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, with a decrease in long positions [3] - **Expectation**: Coking and steel enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. Recently, steel sales have improved, and the demand has increased significantly compared to the previous period. With the increase in steel billet prices, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [2] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [5] - **Negative Factors**: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5] Coke - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the price of coking coal has stabilized and rebounded, with more premium situations in online auctions, providing cost support for coke. Coking enterprises are operating normally, with increasing coke production. Downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production, increasing the demand for coke. Coking enterprises' inventories are decreasing [6] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 112, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week, including 689 tons in steel mills, 199 tons in ports, and 56 tons in independent coking enterprises [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6] - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, with a decrease in long positions [6] - **Expectation**: The rigid demand for coke from steel mills has increased, and the procurement mentality has changed. Some steel mills with low inventory are actively replenishing. The market demand is gradually improving, and the procurement intensity of steel mills has increased, driving the reduction of coking enterprise inventories. Coke supply and demand are developing favorably, and the price is expected to be stable with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term [6] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8] - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8] 3.2 Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On March 17, 2026, the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia are listed, with some price increases [9] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On March 17, 2026, the prices of port metallurgical coke are listed, with no price changes [10] 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared to last week [20] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared to last week [24] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared to last week [29]