Group 1 - The report suggests that after a significant adjustment in the short credit market, there is an increased potential for gains, recommending a focus on mid to short-term credit investments [4][7][8] - The credit bond market has experienced a comprehensive valuation adjustment, with notable declines particularly in the short-end credits, leading to a mixed market sentiment [4][7][17] - The strategy continues to emphasize riding the steep parts of the yield curve, particularly in the 2Y to 3Y range, as these segments are seen as having the strongest certainty and stability [8][9][20] Group 2 - The weekly review indicates that the issuance of credit bonds remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a deeper negative net financing [14][15] - The average issuance costs for new bonds across various ratings have significantly increased, with AAA and AA+ rated bonds seeing rises of 10bp and 13bp respectively [14][15] - The liquidity in the secondary market for credit bonds has further declined, with trading volumes and turnover rates decreasing [17][24] Group 3 - The report highlights that credit spreads across various grades and maturities have widened, indicating a trend of adjustment and potential risk in the market [20][22][24] - The credit spreads for local government bonds have also shown a widening trend, with an average increase of around 3bp across provinces [22][24] - The real estate sector has experienced the most significant widening in credit spreads, with some companies seeing increases of up to 6bp [24]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 把握调整后的信用票息 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250824 一、信用调整了多少？ 本周（8/18-8/24），信用债收益率跟随利率债调整，且调整幅度多高 于利率，信用利差有所走阔： 超长信用本周跌幅较为明显，部分中高等级 7-10 年期普信品种跌幅逾 10bp，7-10 年期二级资本债跌幅弱于普信； 3-5 年信用品种跌幅亦不低，且城投债>二永债>中短票； 2 年期及以内的短端品种当周跌幅相对不深，部分信用利差小幅收窄。 二、信用，谁在买？谁在卖？ 近期，从主要买盘行为看，整体呈现如下特征： 基金为代表的交易盘整体净卖出，尤其是对二永等类利率品种； 理财、保险等配置盘继续逢调整买入，但整体集中在 3 年期以内的中 短端债项。 三、调整后的信用"扛跌性"如何？ 计算按当前收益率持有各品种三个月的静态"扛跌性"： 1 年内的短端品种票息保护较为充足，多在 50+bp； 4-5 年期信用品种目前"扛跌性"约在 10-20bp，虽然对应品种期间 跌幅较深，但由于当前该期限段收益率曲线整体相对平缓，故相较于 7 月 18 日的"扛跌性"变动不大； 5 年期以上的超长信用债整体"扛跌性 ...

来源：郁言债市 ►传统框架失效，"看股做债"走向极致 7月中旬以来或是相对煎熬的阶段。一方面，债市需要承受长久期收益率大幅上行带来的资本利得亏损，另一方面，投资者还面临着传统利率定价框架的 全面失效。在理论上，债市定价的三要素，资金面、基本面、政策面，均支持利率下行。 市场进入了一个由风险偏好单变量决断的定价状态，这也使得"看股做债"走向极致。这种状态形成的原因，或主要与股市非常态的风险收益率比相关，4 月以来股市的极致行情使得上证指数、万得全A的滚动3M卡玛比率自7月后长期维持在4.0以上水平，这是去年"924"行情也无法达到的状态。这种几乎只 涨不跌的风险偏好，对债市形成极大压力。 ►8月下旬，股市发展的两个逻辑 一是快涨逻辑，在"九三共识"的支撑下，各大股指，尤其是大盘型股指，或受到资金的托举，继续维持只涨不跌的趋势，同时由于本轮股票牛市不同 于"924"行情，前期散户资金进场节奏或更为温和，未来一周随着股市赚钱效应得到强化，不排除居民资金集中进场，加快股市上涨速度的可能性，债市 或仍面临压力。 二是震荡逻辑，随着9月3日阅兵时点将近，部分投资者或针对"九三共识"做逆向投资，提前止盈退场，一旦股市开始出 ...

最后一根稻草，来了？美债突破5%,万亿美债崩盘在即,美元危机将近 真可谓是善玩刀剑者必然死于刀剑之下。原本想通过关税战来拯救美国的债务危机，结果没想到，关税战不仅没有拯救美国的债务危机，反而成为了美国 债务危机的催命符。 而就在贝森特不断喊话全球各国要逐渐和美国达成协议的时候，没想到，这边美国的债务危机却逐渐加重，30年期的美债收益率更是突破5%，而最为揪 心的竟然是作为最大债主的日本又开始动手了。日本私人投资者更是直接抛售200亿美元左右的美债，日本要成为美国最后一根稻草吗？ 最后一根稻草，来了？ 只有想不到，没有做不到，对于美国来说，曾经的日本是美国最大的债主，为美国的经济发展贡献了巨大力量，而当下日本反而却成为了美国最大的威胁 之一。 根据相关的媒体报道，就在美国期望和日本等国家达成协议的时候，没想到，日本却反向操作，甚至在短短时间内，日本投资者直接大举抛售了200亿美 元左右的美债，这对于美国来说无异于雪上加霜。 而且2025年4月份，美债收益率更是直接飙升至5%，30年期国债收益率创下历史新高，这就意味着，美债不仅没人买了，现在卖的人更多了。 这一波收益率的飞涨直接冲击了美国的融资成本，白宫在面临财 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 债市或延续区间波动 1、债市复盘：股市继续压制、资金收敛，赎回压力增加 本周，债市跟随股市演绎，未能走出独立行情，呈现近乎"股市涨势延续、 债市跌势不止"的单边趋势：（1）股债"跷跷板"效应明显，债市对基本 面"脱敏"。（2）市场情绪敏感，出现债基的集中赎回。上半周赎回压力加 大，基金卖盘明显增加。（3）利率中枢上移，单日波动加大。10 年国债活 跃券收益率 8/18 便突破 1.75%关键点位，而后运行于 1.75%-1.79%的区间。 资金面超预期收敛后边际缓和，资金利率波动加大，大行净融出规模快速 回落，整体上呈现两点特征：（1）预期与现实的背离，原因在于传统的税 期和非传统的股债市场联动改变资金流向两点因素形成的共振冲击。（2） 流动性投放力度大、节奏前置以稳定预期，阻断赎回压力的蔓延。 2、利率筑顶了吗？ 过去的一周，在赎回担忧发酵的同时，央行呵护显效、配置盘持续买入、 交易盘抛售到小幅净买入，或逐步对利率向上的空间形成一定约束，我们 预计 1.80%或成为 10年期国债利率的阶段性顶部，当前正处筑顶的过程中。 央行的适时呵护对债市的调整形成一 ...

信用债周策略 20250824 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 科创债 ETF 上市以来大部分交易日的日度资金呈现净流入状态，而基准做市信 用债 ETF 的日度资金则大多为净流出状态。8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 于年初上 市，截至 7 月 23 日前整体申购情况较为稳定，每日基本都有资金净流入，自 7 月 23 日开始债市行情走弱，基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金连续出现三天大额净流 出，合计规模超 50 亿元，其中 7 月 24 日的单日净流出规模最大，为 25 亿元。 科创债 ETF 方面，上市当日市场资金大额流入，10 只科创债 ETF 的单日资金净 流入额在 474 亿元左右，上市两日资金净流入超 660 亿元，随后日度资金流入 势头明显放缓，申购情况趋于稳定。7 月 17 日以来至今，8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金净流出规模为 77 亿元，而科创债 ETF 的资金净流入规模为 918 亿 元，可能存在基准做市信用债 ETF 的申购资金被分流到科创债 ETF 的情况。 2025 年以来的三轮调整中，大部分信用债 ETF 的赎回压力可控 ...

陈曦（分析师） 刘瑞（分析师） 固收专题 2025 年 08 月 24 日 债市博弈：美联储降息预期与国内财政工具 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 liurui2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525010001 政策动态 美联储或九月降息 8 月 22 日晚，美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔会议发表演讲，内容包括两部分：一是 当前经济状况和展望；二是货币政策框架的审查和调整。鲍威尔暗示美联储或在 9 月会议降息，但他仍强调货币政策没有预设的路径。 新型政策性金融工具将发行 5000 亿"准财政"工具有待发行，重点支持新兴产业、基础设施等。 资金面较为宽松，发行量增加，债市收益率继续上行，期限利差走阔 一级供给：8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日（以下简称"本周"），利率债累计发行量 9258 亿元，环比增加 3701 亿元，日均发行量处于中位水平以上。国债、地方债、金 融债发行规模分别为 3927 亿元、3692 亿元和 1640 亿元，分别环比增加 824 亿 元、2777 亿元和 100 亿元。 资金面：较为宽松。本周 DR007 ...

杨琳琳 (8621)23297818× yangll@swsresearch.com 2025 年 08 月 24 日 债市风险释放到了什么程度？ 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 联系人 ⚫ 债市压力情况如何跟踪？ 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本周债市压力继续释放。主要在于：（1）情绪继续受到股市压制，（2）债市交易结构 仍显拥挤，（3）"反内卷"改变宏观叙事。综合来看，债市的压力主要在于资金分流进 权益市场和债市交易结构拥挤，而"反内卷"在一定程度上强化了宏观叙事。 ⚫ 股市产生的资金分流压力可如何观察？债券类资产比价处于弱势，市场筹码阶段性更多 流向股市。股市情绪及对资金的虹吸效应可重点通过两融余额、个人投资者开户情况、 非银存款变动、基金申赎情况等指标进行及时跟踪。目前看，股市产生的资金分流效果 初显，但还并未 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国内股商走势分化，国外或迎降息，房地产与国债市场各有表现】国内方面，在"反内卷"政策预期 下，此前股商齐涨，不过近期商品端明显疲软。领头羊多晶硅和碳酸锂上攻乏力，多数前期受益品种或 回落或震荡。本周化工行业反内卷小作文引发关注，化工板块受提振，但与之前"反内卷"品种走势相 比，市场更趋冷静，表明商品端政策预期较前期明显弱化，走势或逐步回归基本面。随着金九银十旺季 来临，商品端需求面临现实考验。国外方面，备受关注的杰克逊霍尔年会上，鲍威尔为9月降息打开大 门。他指出就业走弱，应更注重下行风险，GDP部分放缓或反映供给或潜在产出增长放缓，关税对通胀 的影响清晰可见，合理基准情形是物价水平一次性变动。在政策处于限制性区域时，基线前景和风险平 衡可能需调整政策立场。若不出意外，9月将降息25bp。房地产高频跟踪显示，30大中城市新房销售面 积继续季节性回升，但持续低于2024年同期水平。分能级看，一线城市新房销售面积低于2024年同期， 二线城市有所回升基本持平去年，三线城市上周逆势走高后本周回落至2024年水平以下。二手房方面， 截至8月11日，挂盘价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - home transactions in the real estate market showed a month - on - month recovery but were still lower than the seasonal level year - on - year, while the second - hand housing transactions achieved year - on - year growth, indicating a divergence between new and second - hand housing. - The automotive consumption recovered, while the movie box office declined. - The industrial operation in the production field was stable, and the infrastructure construction maintained resilience. - In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and the cement price rebounded from a low level. - Most commodity futures declined, with significant drops in coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass. - The central government highly concerned about the continuously pressured real estate market. It was expected that the real estate policy toolbox might be further opened, but the probability of a large - scale stimulus was low. Instead, the market would achieve a new balance through policy support [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New - home transactions increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 1.745 million square meters, up 10% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. Second - hand housing transactions in key cities mostly increased month - on - month and year - on - year. - Automotive consumption increased week - on - week, while movie - going consumption increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership declined marginally [2][12]. 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and the rebar operating rate remained flat week - on - week. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 75.1%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 0.9 pct to 91.4%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.2 pct to 30.7%. - In the downstream sector, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but the rebar price decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 22, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.6% to 1.948 million tons, and the rebar price decreased by 1.8% to 3,346.2 yuan/ton. - The cement price increased by 1.6% to 105.1 points week - on - week. As of the week ending August 15 (latest data), the cement shipping rate remained basically flat at 40.1%, and the cement inventory ratio decreased by 1.2 pct to 61.6% [64]. 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, the container throughput at ports decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index decreased by 1.5% week - on - week. The freight rates of European, West - American, and East - American routes decreased week - on - week. The BDI index also decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. - In terms of imports, the CICFI composite index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week [73]. 3.5 Price - The agricultural product price index increased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pork price decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, while the egg price increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the vegetable price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the fruit price decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. - The Nanhua industrial products price index decreased by 1.4% week - on - week. The spot price of Brent crude oil remained flat week - on - week, the COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. Most commodity futures declined, with asphalt, caustic soda, and industrial silicon having the highest increases, and coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass having the largest decreases [6][83]. 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (August 25 - 29), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 382.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.4 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 237.1 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 243.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank financial bonds is 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 140 billion yuan. - As of August 22, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year was 96.7%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 69.9% [7][106]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The government emphasized taking effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, such as promoting urban renewal, renovating urban villages and dilapidated houses, and releasing improvement - oriented housing demand. - Other policies included regulating the construction and operation of PPP projects, exempting personal income tax on childcare subsidies, conducting MLF operations, standardizing the photovoltaic industry competition order, etc. [117]