1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The chemical sector has a general upward trend, with funds flowing into the undervalued chemical sector due to inflation expectations. The port inventory of pure benzene did not continue to decline and slightly rebounded at the beginning of the week. Although the arrival pressure eased, downstream提货 decreased. The overall downstream start - up is okay, with the start - up of non - styrene pure benzene downstream increasing. The domestic pure benzene start - up further decreased, reducing domestic supply. For styrene, with low domestic start - up, the inventory was low initially, but the port inventory rebounded slightly due to increased arrivals. The downstream start - up of styrene is still okay, and the inventory pressure has further eased [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 53 yuan/ton (+63), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 115 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 203 yuan/ton (+91 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profit, Internal - External Spread - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 195 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 199 dollars/ton (+12 dollars/ton). The US - South Korea spread is 95.0 dollars/ton (-1.0 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 682 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.80 tons), and the start - up rate further decreased [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 100,600 tons (+7,100 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 62,300 tons (+3,400 tons), and the start - up rate is 69.6% (-1.2%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profit - EPS: The production profit is - 26 yuan/ton (-84 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 58.71% (+4.65%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 446 yuan/ton (-54 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 57.30% (-0.10%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 1353 yuan/ton (+82 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 66.80% (-3.00%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profit - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1130 yuan/ton (-115), and the start - up rate is 76.17% (-1.00%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 803 yuan/ton (+249), and the phenol start - up rate is 85.50% (-3.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 1241 yuan/ton (+70), and the start - up rate is 87.61% (+10.51%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 950 yuan/ton (+97), and the start - up rate is 69.10% (+3.80%) [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3994 yuan/ton (a change of -3 yuan/ton, or -0.08% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3885 yuan/ton (a change of +93 yuan/ton, or +2.45% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -120 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -2 yuan/ton) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -40 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month increase of +20 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -752 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +114 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 85.8 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.3 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (a month-on-month increase of 2.8 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The overall supply and demand logic of the fundamentals shows that on the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level. There is still great pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply and weakening demand from January to February. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after the end of February, but it remains high from January to February, and there will be a slight reduction in inventory in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are gradually being implemented in mid-January, and the support of rigid demand is weakening [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term funds are flowing into the chemical products sector. Be cautiously bullish, but the fundamentals of EG are still weak, and prices may fluctuate significantly. Pay attention to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage between EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3]. 4. Directory Summaries Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3994 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3885 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was -120 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -40 US dollars/ton, and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -752 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is presented, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January are gradually being implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load are accelerating their decline, and the support of rigid demand is weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 85.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons. The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Factors such as supply and demand changes, geopolitical situations, and seasonal impacts all have an influence on the market. For example, the supply of crude oil has increased, which eases the market's concerns about shortages, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East still bring uncertainties; the fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the situation in Iran and supply changes; the polyester market is affected by device maintenance and downstream demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. The WTI March contract closed down $0.44 to $60.63 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The Brent March contract closed down $0.29 to $65.59 per barrel, a decline of 0.44%. The SC2603 closed at 450.1 yuan per barrel, down 0.8 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.18%. The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan have increased supply, easing concerns about shortages. However, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have also increased concerns about Iranian oil production. The oil price is in a chaotic state and will continue to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.81% to 2791 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 3.49% to 3206 yuan per ton. The price increase of FU was significantly affected by the escalation of the situation in Iran. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is strong due to the recovery of downstream demand, but the expected increase in the volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage vessels arriving in Singapore in January may bring inventory accumulation pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors. The absolute prices of FU and LU are greatly affected by geopolitical situations and are recommended to be observed for the time being [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.39% to 3279 yuan per ton. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and some local refineries have stopped production in the short - term, tightening supply. The demand is in the off - season, and cold snaps and snowfall have hindered terminal demand. The market still has expectations of potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the far - month, but the impact on the recent market has weakened. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5438 yuan per ton, down 0.18%; EG2605 closed at 3994 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7522 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta and Zhejiang regions are weak, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. Multiple polyester and ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance or restart operations. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the prices of PX and TA will oscillate at a high level, and the price of ethylene glycol will show an oscillatory trend [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 85 yuan per ton to 16230 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 13085 yuan per ton, while the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 335 yuan per ton to 13265 yuan per ton. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased, while the general trade inventory in Qingdao increased. Overseas rubber production is coming to an end, and the port inventory is accumulating. The rubber market has limited contradictions, and the rubber price is expected to remain oscillatory. The supply and demand of butadiene are temporarily tight, and the price of butadiene rubber is expected to follow the cost [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2300 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level oscillation, and the MTO operating load in East China has weakened. The overall demand is weak, and the port still has pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6530 - 6650 yuan per ton. The supply has increased due to the resumption of production of some upstream plants, while the downstream demand will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually start to accumulate inventory, but the price will be affected by cost and geopolitical risks in the short - term and will show a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the market prices of PVC in East China, North China, and South China all increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but the export policy will have different impacts in the short - and long - term. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, purified terephthalic acid, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash on January 26 and January 23, 2026 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The resumption of a key Black Sea terminal in Kazakhstan and the upcoming restart of the Tengiz oilfield have increased the supply of crude oil, easing market concerns about shortages. At the same time, the continuous tension in the Middle East and the dispatch of US naval forces have increased concerns about Iranian oil production [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene from 2022 to 2026 [11][12][13][15][17][19][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips from 2022 to 2026 [23][24][27][28][29]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple products such as fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, LLDPE, PP, and natural rubber from 2022 to 2026 [31][33][37][39][41][43]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety for multiple products such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber from 2022 to 2026 [46][48][49][53]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit, processing fee, and cash - flow charts for multiple products such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2026 [55][56]. 3.5 Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Energy and Chemical Research Director Du Bingqin, Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst Di Yilin, and Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [60][61][62][64].

Market Overview - As of last weekend, the total scale of equity ETFs in the market reached 48,892.36 billion yuan, with a decrease of 2,906.25 billion yuan in total scale over the past week, and a reduction of 479.65 billion units, resulting in a net outflow of 3,137.53 billion yuan [1] Fund Inflow and Outflow Direction - In the broad-based and strategy ETF category, the top three inflow sectors were Free Cash Flow, Strategy-Dividend, and CSI 2000, while the top three outflow sectors were CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 [3][4] - In the industry and thematic ETF category, the top five inflow sectors were Semiconductor Chips, Chemicals, Power Grid and Power Operations, Non-ferrous Metals, and Innovative Drugs, while the top five outflow sectors were Military Industry, State-owned Enterprises, Agriculture, Rare Earths, and Consumer Electronics [4][5] Key Focus Areas - The Chemical ETF (159870) has seen continuous net inflows for 16 days, with various sub-sectors receiving positive news. The prices of chemical futures have risen significantly, indicating a positive market outlook for chemical products [6] - Specific price increases include: - Butadiene rubber up by 4.69% - Ethylene glycol up by 4.51% - Styrene up by 4.07% [6] - The price of a key intermediate for disperse dyes has increased from 25,000 yuan per ton to 38,000 yuan, a rise of over 50% [6] - The domestic potassium chloride market is showing strength due to reduced domestic supply and increased import costs [6] - The Chemical ETF has attracted a total of 94.27 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 16 days, with an average daily net inflow of 5.89 billion yuan [6][9] New Energy Sector - The Innovative New Energy ETF (588830) has experienced three consecutive days of gains, driven by the announcement of plans to build 200 GW of solar capacity in the U.S. for data center power supply [10] - The expected demand for solar equipment is projected to be significant, with potential annual procurement needs of 60-70 GW, translating to substantial revenue and profit opportunities in the solar supply chain [10]

苯乙烯产业日报 2026-01-26 置动态对供应端的影响。 免责声明 求变化不大。整体来看，短期国内苯乙烯难摆脱供需紧平衡局面。成本方面，美国对伊朗等产油国制裁仍 存，同时严寒天气可能导致美国产油量下降，国际油价有所上涨。短期EB2603预计高位震荡，关注国内装 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7702 | -6 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 1006360 | -526710 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 444560 | 手) -8334 3月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7702 | -6 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | -7138 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Global Fixed - Income Market**: A new logic has emerged where bonds have shifted from traditional safe - havens to risk sources. Fiscal sustainability has become the core anchor for bond pricing, and the new logic is driven by the combination of fiscal, monetary, and inflationary pressures. It is also globally contagious, affecting both developed and emerging markets. The fiscal health of economies and policy games are key considerations for fixed - income investment [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation, supported by domestic export and settlement data. However, the appreciation process will be regulated by the central bank and may be affected by the strength of the US dollar index. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlements, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [6][7]. - **Equity Index**: The medium - to long - term upward trend of the equity index is supported by policy and liquidity, but the small - and medium - cap indices may experience short - term technical adjustments due to overheating [7]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game between the weak current reality and the uncertain future. There are both positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates and trade protectionism. The future price trend depends on the realization of resumption of navigation [11]. - **Commodities** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling volatility [16]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the upward elasticity is restricted by the polysilicon inventory. Long - term investors can consider a long - position strategy at low prices [18][19]. - **Copper**: The price is in a narrow - range shock. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan, and long - positions built in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan can be held [24]. - **Aluminum and Its Products**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The price may be volatile and slightly stronger, but it is also affected by macro and geopolitical factors [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition. Attention should be paid to supply - side news and inventory changes [29]. - **Tin**: The price may be in a high - level wide - range shock due to geopolitical factors [31]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing. Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest [33][35][36]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to position control [47][48]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state, and short - term corrections can be considered as opportunities to build long - positions [48][49]. - **Paper Pulp and Offset Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see for both paper pulp and offset paper futures [53]. - **LPG**: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [58]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [60]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [62]. - **PP and PE**: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][67]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long - positions for the 05 contract, but the price may correct in the short term [70]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price elasticity of soda ash is limited, and glass is in a state of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [72][73]. - **Propylene**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [75]. - **Black Commodities** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are in a range - bound shock, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [76][77]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [83]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Live Pigs**: The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [88]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [90][91]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [93]. - **Eggs**: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner [95]. - **Apples**: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [96]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - **Logs**: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [101]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macroeconomic and Financial Futures - **Macro**: The probability of Rick Rieder of BlackRock being elected as the Fed Chairman has soared. His policy stance may lead to a further cut in policy rates. Japan's Prime Minister will take measures against abnormal market fluctuations, and the US is affected by a winter storm [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The RMB is supported by domestic data for appreciation, but the process will be regulated by the central bank [3][6]. - **Equity Index**: The previous trading day's index showed a differentiated trend, with large - cap indices weak and small - and medium - cap indices rising. The market may have short - term corrections due to overheating [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded last week, but the short - term may continue to oscillate. Medium - term long - positions can be held, and short - term investors can wait and see [8][9]. Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures contracts showed a differentiated trend, with the near - term contracts relatively stable and the far - term contracts showing different trends. The主力合约 EC2604 slightly declined, and the次主力合约 EC2606 rose [10]. - **Information Summary**: There are positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates, the weakening of freight rate indices, and trade protectionism [11]. - **Trading Judgment**: The 02 and 04 contracts' prices decreased year - on - year. If the resumption of navigation cannot be realized, the 06 contract may have some upward space [12][13]. Commodities - **New Energy** - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rose last week, and the market is active. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival and pay attention to selling volatility [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices of both showed certain changes last week. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the polysilicon inventory restricts its upward elasticity [17][19]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The price was in a narrow - range shock last week. The LC spread narrowed, and LME copper warehouse receipts in US warehouses flowed in. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan [21][24]. - **Aluminum and Its Products**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends. Aluminum is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The price was oscillating strongly. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate strongly following the sector [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed different trends. The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition [28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was oscillating strongly and reached a new high at night. It is affected by geopolitical factors [30][31]. - **Lead**: The price was oscillating weakly. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell options to collect premiums [32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Oilseeds**: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [33][35]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and bio - fuel policies [36][37]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices rose last week. In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock [44][48]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state [48][49]. - **Chemicals** - **Paper Pulp and Offset Paper**: The paper pulp futures price is affected by the spot market and may have limited upward space. The offset paper futures price is affected by cost and supply - side factors. It is recommended to wait and see for both [51][53]. - **LPG**: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [55][58]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [59][60]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [61][62]. - **PP and PE**: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][67]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - **Urea**: The price of the 05 contract may continue to rise, but there may be short - term corrections. It is recommended to hold long - positions [69][70]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has an over - supply expectation, and the glass market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Both have limited price elasticity [71][73]. - **Propylene**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [74][75]. - **Black Commodities** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are in a range - bound shock. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will weaken seasonally [76][77]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [81][83]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized. The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [87][88]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [89][91]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [92][93]. - **Eggs**: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner due to the weakening of pre - holiday demand [94][95]. - **Apples**: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - **Logs**: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [98][101].

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 对二甲苯：单边趋势偏强 PTA：单边趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 PX：23 日尾盘石脑油价格仍然僵持，2 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 561 美元/吨 CFR 附近；PX 价格上涨，一 单 3 月现货在 921 成交，尾盘 3 月在 919/928 商谈，4 月在 925/942 商谈，3/4 在-6/0 商谈，1 月 23 日 PX 收 在 923 美元/吨 CFR，较昨日上涨 16 美元/吨。1 月 23 日市场现货商谈尚可，浮动价格 3 月在-6 附近有成交， 4 月在-3~-4 附近成交商谈。 Platts 公司于 1 月 23 日评估亚洲对二甲苯 CFR Unv1/中国和 FOB 韩国标志分别为 922.67 美元/公吨和 901.67 美元/吨，均较日上涨 16 美元/吨。 Platts 的数据显示，这些价格是自 2024 年 10 月 7 日以来的最高水平，当时评估价为每吨 928 美元。 ...

Summary of Synthetic Rubber Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the synthetic rubber industry, focusing on the dynamics of butadiene and its impact on synthetic rubber prices [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Butadiene Market Dynamics - Recent increases in spot prices of butadiene have led to a rise in synthetic rubber futures prices, indicating a close correlation between spot and futures markets [2][3]. - A supply shortage of butadiene is attributed to capacity gaps, increased exports, and refinery maintenance, with expectations of heightened supply tightness in February and March [2][6]. - The permanent shutdown of ethylene cracking units in Asia and an increase in long-term contracts have contributed to the sustainability of butadiene price increases [2][7]. Synthetic Rubber Pricing and Demand - The price of synthetic rubber is heavily influenced by butadiene, with current prices around 13,000 CNY per ton, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [11]. - There is a strong demand for synthetic rubber, particularly in tire manufacturing, which accounts for over 70% of its usage [15]. - The potential for negative feedback from demand due to rising prices is considered low, as downstream applications are diverse and adaptable to price fluctuations [8][9]. Supply Chain and Market Sentiment - Butadiene manufacturers hold significant market power due to their large-scale operations, especially during supply tightness [10]. - The sentiment in the chemical market is bullish, driven by expectations of rising oil prices and overall positive macroeconomic indicators [25]. - The auction prices for butadiene have exceeded starting prices, indicating strong demand from downstream buyers [11]. Future Market Predictions - Predictions for the butadiene market in 2026 suggest two significant price movements, with potential declines in the second half of the year due to new capacity coming online [14]. - The natural rubber market is expected to face challenges, with potential price pressures if inventory levels rise significantly post-holiday season [16][17]. Other Important Insights - The relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber pricing is complex, with natural rubber currently not posing a significant threat to synthetic rubber prices due to the existing price spread [12][13]. - The impact of storage policies on natural rubber prices is uncertain and will depend on market sentiment at the time of implementation [27]. - The overall health of the synthetic rubber market is supported by strong demand in related sectors, despite some underlying weaknesses in specific product lines [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, and pricing dynamics in the synthetic rubber industry.

金银连创纪录新高化工板块全线大涨碳酸锂突破18万大关 美国总统特朗普近期的一系列动作加剧了全球市场的"去美元化"进程，如波兰央行批准购买150吨黄金的计划，准备将其黄金储备增加到700吨，这令黄金成 为最佳的避风港，并推动白银以及铂金等在新的"无人区"加速驰骋。23日，国际黄金价格突破4950美元/盎司，白银突破99美元／盎司，上海黄金逼近1120 元／克，沪银则一度涨破25000元／千克大关。铂金期货收盘涨超10%，在如火如荼的商品市场领涨。国信期货分析称，在黄金、白银因避险与投机需求大 涨的引领下，市场资金在板块内部进行扩散式配置，推动铂族金属也走出补涨行情。格陵兰岛相关进展及美欧贸易关系的反复，也持续为市场注入不确定 性，从宏观情绪上支撑了贵金属的整体配置需求。 资金继续加速涌入化工品，今日化工品全线收涨，合成橡胶和乙二醇双双涨停，瓶片、PTA涨超4%，短纤、沪胶、20号胶等涨超3%。一方面资金在商品牛 市预期下寻找下一个接力棒，估值偏低的化工品成为资金首选；其次，周末即将到来的北美寒潮引发市场资金提前布局，市场分析认为，由于美国的电网更 加稳固，此次寒潮强度可能不及2021年，但对价格的扰动可能相似， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of propylene is gradually tightening, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. The PDH device shutdown news is gradually being realized, leading to a significant contraction in PDH supply. The short - term supply of the propylene spot market is tight. The downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the demand may be limited due to profit compression. The international oil price is in a volatile trend, and the propane price remains strong. The propylene market may fluctuate mainly following the cost side in the short term [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene Data**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6132 yuan/ton (+139), the East China spot price is 6325 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6175 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is 193 yuan/ton (-139), the Shandong basis is 43 yuan/ton (-134), the operating rate is 71% (-4%), the China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 242 US dollars/ton (-10), the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 73 US dollars/ton (-2), the import profit is - 336 yuan/ton (-4), and the in - plant inventory is 38980 tons (-7290) [1]. - **Propylene Downstream Data**: The PP powder operating rate is 31% (-0.84%), the production profit is - 145 yuan/ton (+25); the propylene oxide operating rate is 73% (+1%), the production profit is - 288 yuan/ton (-4); the n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+0%), the production profit is 660 yuan/ton (-3); the octanol operating rate is 96% (+2%), the production profit is 782 yuan/ton (+46); the acrylic acid operating rate is 82% (-1%), the production profit is 159 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate is 75% (-3%), the production profit is - 1174 yuan/ton (+204); the phenol - acetone operating rate is 86% (-4%), the production profit is - 892 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: PDH device shutdown news is gradually being realized. The 600,000 - ton/year PDH device of Juzhengyuan Phase II has shut down this week, and the two 900,000 - ton PDH devices of Jinneng Phase II and Wanhua Penglai continue to be under maintenance. The domestic PDH operating rate has dropped significantly, and the supply of the PDH end in the region has shrunk significantly. The short - term supply of the propylene spot market is tight. Attention should be paid to the shutdown progress and new maintenance plans [2]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream rigid demand support continues, but considering that after the propylene price rises to a high level, the downstream demand may be limited due to profit compression, and the overall downstream operating rate has decreased. The propylene - PP powder price difference at the PP end continues to narrow, and the support for powder procurement has declined. At the PO end, the price of propylene oxide has risen rapidly and then fallen rapidly, mainly due to the resistance to high - priced polyether, and the willingness to purchase raw materials at the PO end may decrease. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and they provide good support for propylene [2]. - **Cost Side**: The international oil price tends to fluctuate, while the propane price remains strong. The supply - demand situation is gradually tightening. The propylene market may fluctuate mainly following the cost side in the short term. Attention should continue to be paid to the upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and the change of propane at the cost side [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. The PDH device maintenance has begun to be realized, the supply - demand structure has improved slightly, the geopolitical disturbance has eased, the oil price tends to fluctuate, the overseas propane has continued to strengthen recently, the PDH device maintenance may intensify further, the supply - demand fundamentals and the cost side resonate, the sentiment in the chemical sector is hot, and the short - term market may be mainly fluctuating strongly [3]. - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided