Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - **PP**: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - **Plastic**: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - **Urea**: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].

纯碱玻璃周报——2025.12.08 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供增需减预期仍存 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.74%（环比+0.66%），氨碱法90.85%（环比+2.45%），联碱法70.95%（+2.89%)； 周产量70.39万吨（环比+0.58万吨），轻碱产量32.24万吨（+0.73万吨），重碱产量38.15万吨 （-0.15万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需75.27万吨（-0.24万吨），轻碱表需33.53万吨（+0.38万吨），重碱表需41.75万吨 （-0.61万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存153.86万吨（-3.13万吨），轻碱库存72.78万吨（-0.67万吨），重碱库存 81.08万吨（-2.46万吨）。 4.核心逻辑 本周纯碱现货价格持稳运行，随着前期检修装置的陆续恢复，预计纯碱供应压力将有所提升， 后续需关注新增产能装置投产带来的供应增量情况。需求端，浮法及光 ...

周期论剑电话会议 顺周期跨年行情推荐 20251207 摘要 预计明年初货币政策可能宽松，金融监管总局下调保险公司权益入市风 险因子并拓宽券商资本空间，提升市场风险偏好。12 月至 2 月或是政策、 流动性和基本面向上共振的窗口期，建议关注科技成长、大金融和周期 类资产。 预计 2026 年全 A 股非金融业绩增长约 10.6%，股市盈利不再仅依赖传 统周期行业。未上市保险公司将在 2026 年实行新会计准则，预计保险 资金入市增量可能超过万亿，改善流动性环境。 重申航空板块前景乐观，预计 2025 年第四季度行业大幅减亏并全年扭 亏，2026 年需求增长将驱动票价和盈利上行，建议逆向布局航空超级 周期，包括国航、吉祥、东航、南航及春秋航空等公司。 预计第四季度及全年原油轮盈利创十年来新高，中东和南美原油增产效 应显现，印度缩减俄油进口驱动运价飙升。推荐中远海能、招商轮船、 招商南油、中国船舶租赁等公司。 化工板块目前处于底部状态，部分品种开始修复，反内卷政策推动带来 利好。应积极配置具备成本优势且新增产能带动业绩提升的龙头企业， 如煤化工龙头华鲁恒升。关注磷酸铁锂电解液、正丁醇、新醇等品种价 格上涨带来的投 ...

（来源：福能期货） 来源：福能期货 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考，在任何情况下不作为您的投资依据，据此入市，风险自担。因本平台暂 时无法设置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢 您的理解与配合！ 美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，基本符合市场预期。同时，9月实际个人消费支出环比意外持平，前值由上涨0.4%下修为 0.2%。另外，12月密歇根大学一年期通胀预期降至4.1%，创今年1月以来最低，5年通胀预期也降至3.2%。通胀数据符合预期为12美联储降息提供支持。 此外，11月末央行黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，是央行继去年11月重启增持后，连续第13个月增持黄金。综合来看，美国通胀符合预期、 就业市场不确定性较强、零售数据不及预期强化12月美联储降息预期，加之俄乌冲突扰动仍存、日元加息令避险情绪难以实质降温，预计金价震荡偏强。 中长期来看，受全球政治经济不确定、美元信用体系冲击等因素影响下，金价牛市基础仍存。建议前期多单底仓续持，并可考虑买入 ...

（责任编辑：郭健东 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每经AI快讯，国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数下跌，黑色系跌幅居前，焦煤跌5.24%；农副产品多数下 跌，玉米淀粉跌1.70%；化工品多数下跌，乙二醇跌1.64%；非金属建材涨跌参半，PVC跌0.99%；油脂 油料多数下跌，菜粕跌0.71%；能源品涨幅居前，低硫燃料油涨1.32%。 每日经济新闻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory this week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The overall supply-demand logic of the fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short-process oil chemical plants had relatively high production pressure. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. - The strategy is unilateral neutral. The commissioning pressure is relatively large, and with the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. However, the price center of ethylene glycol has now fallen to the lowest level in the past two years, and recently, negative feedback from high-cost plants has gradually emerged, and the pressure of inventory accumulation has been alleviated [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -71 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1058 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the content. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester was at a low level, and the polyester load provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 75.3 tons, up 2.1 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 71.9 tons, up 1.1 tons month-on-month. The total planned arrivals at the main port of East China this week were 16.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary port were 4.1 tons, which were relatively high, and it is expected that the main port will continue to accumulate inventory [1].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term core factor is geopolitics, with a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and an expectation of risk escalation in the Caribbean region. Aromatics (PX, PTA, BZ, EB) and methanol are short - term long - core varieties in the chemical industry [2][4]. - The supply - demand and macro drivers of crude oil are weak in the short term, but geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. There are short - term long opportunities and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak. Short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and before a large - scale inventory build - up, the oversupply trading is difficult to restart. Geopolitical factors are the main driver in December, with a short - term long view and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: There is an unexpected inventory build - up during the seasonal de - stocking period, and there are still concerns about over - inventory. There are short - term fundamental contradictions and large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation, and the structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly and 15 - minute cycles after the stop - loss of long positions [8][9]. Rubber - Logic: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has no significant increase, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing. The market should be treated with an oscillation view [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: It is traded around butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a five - year high in the past two weeks, and the price is under pressure. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation lacks short - selling space. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand is neutral to positive, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [18]. PTA - Logic: The polyester has little pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 [20]. PP - Logic: It still faces the pressure of olefin capacity to be put into production, with high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is negative, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The over - expected maintenance in Iran has led to the shutdown of multiple methanol plants. With the temperature dropping in December, a full - scale shutdown is likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has room for upward correction. The port de - stocking rate is accelerating. The withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous trading board brings a large upward space [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and short - term oscillation. After testing the support without breaking it, the upward structure continues. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2100 [25][27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand. The social inventory is still increasing, and there is no upward drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The technical structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity addition. Inventory build - up continues. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 3920. The strategy is to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin capacity addition remains. The supply - demand is still weak. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 6825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the production cut in the downstream glass production line suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally decreases [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After a reduction in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 1195. The remaining short positions in the hourly cycle should be held cautiously with a stop - profit at 1195 [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: New capacity is put into production, and most plants have resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in high supply pressure. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After an increase in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39].

化工日报 | 2025-12-04 主港延续累库，EG价格弱势 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3822元/吨（较前一交易日变动-55元/吨，幅度-1.42%），EG华东市场现货价 3829元/吨（较前一交易日变动-47元/吨，幅度-1.21%），EG华东现货基差2元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-65美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1019 元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为75.3万吨（环比+2.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为70.8万吨（环比+7.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量1.4万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数16.1万吨，副港到港量4.1万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，部分短流程油化工装置生产压力较大，后续关注其裂 解环节以及乙二醇装置降负可能；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限，短期港口库存预计持稳，但12月上旬仍有沙特 大船抵 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, focus on opportunities for low - level positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2][10] - For MEG, in the short - term, consider selling put options, while in the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [3] - For polyester short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Near - end TA partial device restarts, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks. In the future, TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and PX pattern is good [2] - PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34), and Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarts [9] MEG - Near - end domestic coal - chemical industry restarts intensively, start - up increases, overseas partial devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of next week, weekly arrival forecast is low, basis weakens, and coal - based profit slightly improves. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and the current valuation compression space may be limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3] - Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts, and MEG spot basis is near 01(-1) [3] Polyester Short - Fiber - Near - end device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates. In the future, short - fiber demand basically maintains the previous state, short - fiber export maintains high growth, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and pay attention to warehouse receipt situation [3] - Spot price is near 6337, and market basis is near 01 - 100 [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - National explicit inventory is stable and at a low absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - Daily changes show that ethylene price is stable, pure benzene price has minor changes, and styrene price increases. Domestic profits of styrene, EPS, and PS have different degrees of improvement [7] PX - PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks [2]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI January contract closing at $58.95 per barrel, up $0.31, a 0.53% increase, while Brent February contract closed at $62.67 per barrel, up $0.22, a 0.35% increase [3][18] - EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with crude oil inventory rising by 574,000 barrels to 427.503 million barrels as of November 28 [3][18] - Refinery crude processing increased by 433,000 barrels per day, with refinery capacity utilization rising by 1.8 percentage points to 94.1% [3][18] - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the explosion on the Druzhba pipeline segment, but supply disruptions have been limited, leading to a continued oscillation in oil prices [3][18] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.3% to 22,437 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.59% to 3,017 yuan per ton [4][19] - China's independent refineries' operating rate increased to 70.53%, up 0.49 percentage points from the previous week [4][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce low-sulfur fuel oil inflows to Singapore, while supply remains ample [4][19][20] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.41% to 2,952 yuan per ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 26.01%, up 0.12% week-on-week [6][21] - Domestic asphalt supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [6][21] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 150 yuan per ton to 15,210 yuan per ton, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [7][22] - Market dynamics are influenced by the timing of rubber tapping in Thailand and the registration of new warehouse receipts [7][22] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4,730 yuan per ton, down 0.46%, while EG2601 closed at 3,822 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [8][23] - The PX futures contract closed at 6,908 yuan per ton, with downstream demand gradually weakening as year-end approaches [8][23] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,122 yuan per ton, with expectations of a slight decrease in domestic production in December [9][24] - The overall demand for methanol is anticipated to increase due to the restart of certain production facilities [9][24] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6,300 to 6,500 yuan per ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][25] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while demand is projected to weaken [10][25] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a weak trend, with the market facing limited support from downstream demand due to a slowdown in real estate construction [11][27] - The supply side is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are at a low, but overall demand remains weak [11][27] Urea - Urea prices remained firm, with some regions seeing price increases of 10 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand from agricultural and compound fertilizer sectors [12][28] - The industry’s daily production rate was reported at 192,500 tons, with a slight increase from the previous day [12][28] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained stable, with the market experiencing a slight decline in certain regions [13][29] - The industry operating rate is fluctuating around a high level, but demand remains weak due to low production in downstream sectors [13][29] Glass - The glass market showed a stable performance with an average price of 1,101 yuan per ton, although some regions are experiencing price adjustments [14][30] - Demand remains relatively positive, but the core limiting factor is weak downstream demand, affecting procurement levels [14][30]