Core Viewpoint - The United States has raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50% due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, significantly impacting India's exports and employment [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Trade and Economy - The new tariffs, effective from August 27, make India one of the countries facing the highest tariffs from the U.S., threatening its export and employment [1]. - Economists predict that the tariffs could lead to a decline in India's GDP growth rate by 0.8% to 1% if they persist [7]. - The tariffs are expected to affect over half of India's exports to the U.S., including sectors like apparel, jewelry, footwear, furniture, and chemicals [3]. Group 2: Government Response and Support - The Indian government plans to provide financial support to affected exporters and encourages them to explore markets in China, Latin America, and the Middle East [3][9]. - Despite the government's strong stance to protect farmers and small businesses, there is a lack of hope for immediate tariff reductions from the U.S. [2][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The high tariffs threaten India's competitiveness in exports, making it difficult to compete with countries like China and Vietnam [5]. - There are concerns that the tariffs could lead to significant job losses in India's export sector and weaken its position in global value chains [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - India's exports to the U.S. account for approximately 2% of its GDP, and strong domestic demand may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [8]. - The bilateral trade volume between India and the U.S. is projected to be around $129 billion in 2024, with a trade deficit of $45.7 billion for India [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ethylene glycol port inventory has dropped to around 500,000 tons, and the short - term arrival is continuously low, leading to a stronger spot basis [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] - The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - Domestically, the ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August [2] International Spread - Not elaborated in the provided text Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The demand shows signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]

消息面 8月26日，常州地区国产甲醇价格参考2325-2330元/吨出罐；内地送到常州周边套利空间关闭；张家港 地区可售量几无，暂无报价；靖江上午价格区间参考2300-2330元/吨；南通地区甲醇进口货源主流商家 成交价格2310元/吨附近出库现汇；宁波地区甲醇进口货出罐成交参考2270-2300元/吨附近出库现汇，买 气一般。 机构观点 东海期货： 内地装置重启，到港集中价格承压。随着港口价格下跌，回流窗口即将开启，对现货有一定支撑，且 MTO装置计划重启，传统下游旺季在即，甲醇基本面有边际转好迹象，但供应过剩格局尚未转变，预 计价格震荡为主。 国信期货： 伊朗一套甲醇装置重启恢复，该国国内整体装置开工率提升到79%附近，日产量延续提升至高位，月底 至9月初沿海重要库区甲醇库存将达到满罐水平，关注后期非主力库区库存累积和转口情况。操作建 议：震荡思路对待。 据不完全统计，预计8月22日至9月7日中国进口船货到港量为97.75万-98万吨。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃 装置平均开工负荷在81.41%，环比持平。 国内甲醇周产能利用率83.76%，上升1.36%，内蒙古新奥60万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总 ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical sector is experiencing an upward trend, with companies like Compton, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming leading the gains [1] - Everbright Securities highlights that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand dynamics remain favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [1] - The recovery of the macro economy is boosting chemical demand, and long-term capacity elimination in chemical products is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities notes the emergence of "anti-involution" policies in the petrochemical industry, recommending a focus on industry leaders with strong performance stability and consistent high dividends [1] - Oil prices are expected to have a floor, leading to high earnings certainty for oil companies, combined with high dividend characteristics, which may enhance valuations; attention is advised on companies with sustained production growth and low cost [1] - Domestic policies encourage oil and gas reserve increases and production, suggesting a focus on companies in the growth phase of production [1]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,509 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,550 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The spot basis in East China was 98 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, down $1/ton; that of coal - made syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased to around 500,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 54,000 tons. The main port inventory may continue to decline. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and imports are expected to exceed 650,000 tons after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a high in late September [2]. - The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with few supply - demand contradictions [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,509 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,550 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The spot basis in East China was 98 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$49/ton, down $1/ton; that of coal - made syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. International Price Difference - The report does not provide specific content about international price differences other than the chart title "Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - There are signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a high in late September [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased to around 500,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 54,000 tons. The main port inventory may continue to decline. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Both supply and demand are on an increasing trend, with few fundamental contradictions. However, the short - term arrival is low, and the increase in imports is expected to be realized in mid - to - late September. There is support under the short - term low inventory [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy [3]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of slightly bullish oscillations, awaiting the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. The ratings for each variety are as follows: oil prices are expected to be slightly bearish with oscillations; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate; LLDPE, PP, and PL are expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hardening of the US stance towards Russia is the main reason for the recent strengthening of crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the chemical sector continues to be strong, awaiting policy implementation. The polyester chain performs best, while the pure benzene and styrene chains underperform. Polyolefins saw a late - stage price increase, and ethylene glycol's low port inventory supports its price [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Amidst warming macro - sentiment and continuous geopolitical disturbances, oil prices rebounded slightly after stabilizing. However, with OPEC+ accelerating supply release, high US production, and the potential decline of high - operating refineries in China and the US, the rebound's sustainability is limited. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations should be monitored [10]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are outweighed by the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine, Middle - East, and US - Venezuela situations. The geopolitical premium for asphalt has resurfaced, supporting its cost. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined from its high, and the refinery's continuous return to operation has driven the spread down. The high premium of asphalt futures is supported, but its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the geopolitical premium for high - sulfur fuel oil has returned. Although the increase in heavy - oil supply is more certain, factors such as the attack on Russian refineries, the attack on the Druzhba pipeline, and US sanctions on Chinese fuel - oil - importing enterprises have contributed to the price increase. The high cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil also supports its price. However, the price disturbance caused by geopolitical escalation is short - term, and changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its valuation is low. Fundamentally, the pressure on domestic refined - oil supply may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation, following the fluctuations of crude oil [13]. - **PX**: With the overall oscillation of crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices, there is still some support at the cost end. The new PTA production line has started production, and with the continuous improvement of terminal polyester and textile demand, the price of PX is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend under low - inventory conditions. It is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, paying attention to the support at 6750 - 6800 [14]. - **PTA**: The new production line has started production, and the pattern of inventory reduction remains unchanged. There is short - term cost support and a favorable macro - sentiment. In the medium - term, the pattern is expected to improve in August - September, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The recent positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. In Asia, South Korea plans to shut down and overhaul cracking units in October, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub has risen. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, but the decline rate has slowed. The market is trading on the expected increase in inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is driven by sentiment and may be slightly bullish. In the medium - term, if no specific de - capacity policies are implemented, it may return to the fundamental trading of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Styrene**: The direct sales to downstream have decreased, and the arrival of supplementary goods has increased, leading to inventory accumulation at the port and a price decline. With the news of de - capacity in China and South Korea, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have rebounded. In September - October, with more maintenance plans, the supply - demand situation may reverse, and it is possible to try to expand profits in the September - October period. Fundamentally, it is still bearish, but short - selling is against the trend in the short - term due to factors such as production - limit policies for the September parade, continuous release of macro - policies, and coal - mine safety accidents [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Despite high domestic supply pressure, the visible inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. According to the shipping and arrival schedules, the port inventory will continue to decline in early September. The short - term fundamentals are moderately positive, and the low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season provide good support. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the EG09 - 01 reverse - spread position should be held [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is waiting for cost guidance from upstream products. The upstream polymerization cost oscillates without obvious guidance, and the price of short - fiber oscillates within a range. Fundamentally, it has weakened slightly, and the production - sales ratio has slowed down. Without obvious positive demand stimuli, the processing fee is expected to remain in a low - level range. The absolute value of short - fiber follows the fluctuations of raw materials and oscillates in the short - term [21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited, and the processing fee is passively compressed. As the peak season ends, demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the polyester factories' willingness to adjust their operating rates in September. The price oscillates, and the absolute value follows the fluctuations of raw materials [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The recent news of China's chemical - capacity policy has boosted the market sentiment, but the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for buying at low prices in the far - month can be monitored [27]. - **Urea**: The actual demand is insufficient, and the export release is slow. Without positive support under the unchanged fundamentals, the futures price is under pressure. Before the actual export release, the market is in a wait - and - see mode, and the futures price is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of exports [25]. - **LLDPE**: The futures price has rebounded slightly. The news of domestic device overhauls to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry and the news of South Korean petrochemical capacity elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The short - term oil price has rebounded slightly, and the macro - level still has capital games. The fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, paying attention to the demand during the peak season [29]. - **PP**: The futures price oscillates. The news of domestic device overhauls and the expectation of South Korean petrochemical device elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price oscillates in the short - term, and the supply side of PP still has an increasing trend. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, with low operating rates in the plastic - weaving and injection - molding industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **PL**: In the short - term, it follows the oscillation of PP. The short - term sentiment in the olefin sector has been boosted by the news from China and South Korea, but the downstream buying enthusiasm has decreased. The trading volume of propylene enterprises has decreased, and the price has moved down slightly. The short - term futures price follows the fluctuations of PP, and the polypropylene processing fee represented by PP - PL is the focus of the market [33]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has improved, and PVC has weakly stabilized. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream has started autumn maintenance, production has declined, downstream operating rates have changed little, and low - price purchases have increased. The anti - dumping policy may take effect within a month, and export expectations are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the driving force coming from the improvement of market sentiment and the pressure from inventory accumulation [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase may slow down. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the inventory replenishment demand from non - aluminum industries is approaching the end, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts in the near - month. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in the October contract at high prices. For the January contract, it is recommended to buy on dips because the expectations of alumina and MHP production cannot be falsified, and the high operating rate of alumina supports the demand for caustic soda [35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, and others have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 8 with a change of - 4 [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is 8 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 72650 [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 198 with a change of - 21 [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part provides data monitoring on the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2486.32, up 0.97%, and the energy index on August 25, 2025, is 1226.46, up 0.84% for the day [281][283].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in PTA futures prices in the domestic market is attributed to inventory reduction expectations and cost support, with the main contract reaching a peak of 4902 yuan/ton as of August 25 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The PTA spot market has risen to a monthly high in late August, driven by inventory reduction expectations and cost support [1] - The restart of a 2.2 million ton PTA facility in East China has been followed by another shutdown, while a 5 million ton PTA facility in South China is also undergoing unplanned shutdowns, leading to a decrease in estimated PTA production to around 6.15 million tons for August [1] Group 2: Production and Demand Outlook - Current PTA production is experiencing losses, with strong expectations for equipment maintenance and repairs [1] - There is an anticipated recovery in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period for downstream products [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a weak trend. The coal mine start - up rate initially declined and then recovered, with demand weakening and pit - mouth prices falling. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant, with high and stable start - up rates. Import expectations for September are raised to 1.4 billion tons, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory. Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, while MTO device start - up rates have rebounded. Overall, with increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis of coal situation**: The coal mine start - up rate in Ordos and Yulin regions has recovered, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. Coal demand has weakened, and pit - mouth prices have stopped rising and started to fall. Although coal prices have rebounded recently, the methanol auction prices in the inland are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are stable at a high level [5]. - **Supply analysis**: The price of raw coal has stopped rising, and the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate is stable at a high level. The import volume is expected to increase, with the September import forecast raised to 1.4 million tons, and ports are accumulating inventory [5]. - **Demand analysis**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season with a decline in start - up rates, while the MTO device start - up rate has rebounded. Some MTO devices have different operating conditions, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device being shut down [5]. - **Inventory analysis**: Import arrivals have increased, port inventory accumulation has accelerated, and the basis is weakly stable. Inland enterprise inventory has fluctuated within a narrow range [5]. - **Trading strategies**: For unilateral trading, short on rallies without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [5]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply data**: As of August 21, the overall domestic methanol device start - up load was 73.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from last week. The international methanol (excluding China) output in the cycle (20250809 - 20250815) was 1,045,457 tons, with a device capacity utilization rate of 71.67%, unchanged from last week. The Chinese methanol sample arrival volume in the cycle was 328,900 tons [6]. - **Demand data**: As of August 21, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.79%, unchanged from last week. The national olefin device start - up rate was 85.7%. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream industries such as dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of August 20, the total port inventory was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Valuation data**: In the profit aspect, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi regions is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 230 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. MTO losses have narrowed, and the basis has weakened [6]. - **Spot price**: The price in Taicang is 2,290 yuan (- 20), and the price in the northern line is 2,060 yuan (- 20) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,473 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. [1] - From the supply side, the domestic syngas - based EG production load has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate has risen above 70%. Overseas imports are expected to rebound to around 650,000 tons after August. From the demand side, the most pessimistic period of the off - season is over, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the short - term polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase. The balance sheets for August - September show a slight inventory build - up, with both supply and demand on an increasing trend. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,473 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. The domestic syngas - based EG production load has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate has risen above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data provided, only a chart (Figure 9: EG international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned. [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the demand off - season is over, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the short - term polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons, down 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data on Thursday, it was 498,000 tons, down 37,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 54,000 tons, and 43,000 tons at the auxiliary ports. On Thursday, the total MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was 497,800 tons, down 4,600 tons from Monday and 36,700 tons from last Thursday. [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the domestic downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair, so the methanol valuation is relatively high. The return of domestic and imported supplies gives a downward drive to the methanol price. Currently, the raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises is high, and it is difficult to have further inventory - building demand. It is highly likely that the port will continue to accumulate inventory, so the upward drive of methanol is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2425 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2393 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.37%); MA09 closed at 2314 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong, spot prices increased slightly on August 21, 2025, while in Shaanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.47%). Spot prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 115 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Cost and Profit - **Coal and Gas Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 coal decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.45%) to 510 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. The industrial natural gas price in Hohhot remained unchanged, and in Chongqing, it decreased by 0.05 yuan/cubic meter (-1.57%) [1]. - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 373.70 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 40 yuan/ton (8.66%) to - 422 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 30 yuan/ton (41.67%) to 102 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 24.50 yuan/ton (-5.20%) to - 496.07 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan/ton (-2.32%), while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and rose on August 21, 2025, opening at 2424 yuan/ton and closing at 2425 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,301 lots, and the open interest was 680,234 lots, with a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Currently, only one 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at their original loads. Attention should be paid to the operation dynamics of local methanol plants in the second half of the month [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The recent rebound of methanol is mainly due to the successful trial - run of a downstream glacial acetic acid plant and the removal of naphtha production capacity in South Korea, which boosted the olefin price. However, the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1].