Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a continuous volume contraction rebound, with improved funding conditions due to the warming expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and enhanced effectiveness of domestic fundamental pricing [1] - Recent improvements in the TMT and upstream resource sectors have been notable, with a focus on AI chains, pricing chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [1] - The upcoming "spring restlessness" in mid to late December may lead to an early start, balancing growth and cyclical investments, with a mid-term view favoring large financials and certain high-value consumer stocks as core choices for asset revaluation in China [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a rotation of volatility and structural opportunities, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued in terms of global pricing power [3] - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall market has seen a systematic increase in financing, with a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly surpassing the total issuance of public and private bullish products since October of the previous year [3] - Major broad-based indices and thriving sectors have achieved most of their gains during these two market waves, while other periods have been relatively flat, with effective gains seen in quant-driven micro-accounts, insurance-driven banks, and price-driven non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its bull run next year, supported by valuation and profit stabilization [4] - Easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to bring a pre-spring restlessness rally to the A-share market, with upcoming U.S.-China policy expectations being a key factor [4] - The AI sector is expected to continue its momentum under the 2026 U.S.-China interest rate cycle and strengthening AI trends, with a focus on "scarcity" in energy and power, as well as dual development in AI applications and ecosystem construction [4]

上周A股主要指数普遍上涨，但量能不足。周内A股交投活跃度有所回落，日均成交额降至1.70万亿 元。风格上看，周期板块在供给收紧与美联储降息预期升温的双重推动下表现亮眼，贵金属领涨，市场 风格整体表现为：周期>金融>成长>消费。 金鹰基金分析表示，国内方面，周末消息显示，后续优质券商资本空间与杠杆上限有望打开，险资投资 风险因子调降均利于千亿级别增量资金入市，后续春节躁动的增量资金加持相对明确。本周国内外将陆 续进入政策重要观察期，其中12月中央经济工作会议对明年经济的政策定调，我们预计相对积极财政布 局值得期待，尤其是财政支持相关的新领域的拓宽，将直接影响部分板块明年景气度的修复。 关注行业方面，春季躁动聚焦科技+制造主线，关注国内政策加码方向。金鹰基金表示，科技风格已来 到调整的中后段，从历史经验来看，40个交易日的回调和25%的行业指数下跌，指向当前科技风格后续 的回调空间或已相对有限，近期海外流动性紧张阶段引发的全球科技回调或已探明本轮科技回调的底部 区域，只不过中期科技风格结束回调需要打消此前市场讨论AI泡沫论时对AI投资回报率的担忧，由此 大模型能力的提升和AI 商业化闭环进展等催化，或将成为后续科 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】国内外利好共振，市场有所回暖——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 1 期） 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前 指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续 的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部 分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注 防御及消费板块，中期继续关注 TMT 和先进制造板块。 【金工】把握年末利率下行契机，解析 10 年国债 ETF 配置价值——工具型产品介绍 与分析系列之二十七 我们认为宏观基本面承压但韧性仍在、央行政策支撑下，年末利率有望维持偏低并趋 于稳定。低利率环境提升固定收益资产吸引力，为债券 ETF 配置提供了较高性价比。 国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF（代码：511260.SH）作为市场上唯一跟踪 10 年期国债指 数的债券 ETF，基金规模大、流动性佳，风险收益比良好，公募基金将作为底仓资产 的配置趋势进一步强化，建议关注其配置机会。 【金工】回调压力 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华泰证券策略研究 上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面，联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升共振下资金面环境有 所改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF发行和申购回暖，保险风险因子下调或进一步打开险资配置权 益资产空间。景气度，近期TMT、上游资源景气改善幅度居前，关注AI链、涨价链、资本品、大众消 费品和基建链等线索。政治局及中央经济会议前政策预期或逐步升温，12月中下旬"春躁"可能提前启 动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓选择。 核心观点 资金观察：配置型资金有回暖迹象，保险风险因子下调或带来增量 近期资金面环境有所改善：1）交易型资金边际放缓，两融余额小幅回升，融资买入额及占成交额比重 回落；私募备案数量放缓至178个，但11月环比提速，且产品发行和建仓有滞后性；2）配置型资金有回 暖迹象，新成立偏股型基金份额小幅回落，但估算普通股票型、偏股混合型基金仓位环比回升；美国 ADP就业数据强化12月降息预期，EPFR统计的主动外资净流出规模收窄；ETF近一周转为净申购，11 月底以来新 ...

// 市场要闻 // 1、CPI、 PPI数据将公布 12月10日，国家统计局将公布11月CPI、PPI数据。 华创证券预计11月CPI同比增速有望从上月0.2%回升至0.7%左右。CPI同比增速大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去年11月食品项环比 为-2.7%，是过去十年最低 ； 今年11月环比预计为1.1%。食品价格的波动主要源于天气影响下的菜价，今年10月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨 增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。 2、11月金融数据或将公布 除CPI、PPI外，11月新增贷款、M2、社融等金融数据也或将在本周公布。 浙商证券预计11月人民币贷款新增3000亿元，同比少增2800亿元，对应增速回落0.1个百分点为6.4%；预计11月社融新增2.2万亿元，同比少 增约342 亿元，对应增速回落0.1 个百分点为8.4% ； 预计11 月M2 增速为8.0%，回落0.2个百分点 ； 预计11 月M1 增速为5.3%，回落0.9 个百 分点。 3、央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场将有6638亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a strengthened expectation for a market style shift towards mid-cap blue chips, with investment opportunities identified in the consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors of mid-cap blue chips [3][13]. Market Analysis - The market continues its rebound, with recent news regarding adjustments to insurance companies' stock investment risk factors and comments from Chairman Wu Qing reinforcing the trend of index fluctuations. This combination of lower risk assessments, a slight increase in risk-free rates, and a convergence of risk preferences towards the middle suggests ongoing investment opportunities in companies with moderate risk profiles [4][14]. - The risk assessment is expected to decline as Chairman Wu's remarks paint a more stable and predictable long-term development outlook, alleviating investor concerns about the long-term prospects of the Chinese capital market. Additionally, the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies reduces the capital occupation cost for investing in A-shares, encouraging greater equity asset allocation [4][14]. - There is a potential slight increase in risk-free rates as insurance companies may shift more funds from fixed-income assets to stocks, which could support the risk-free rate due to improved expectations for the capital market's efficiency in serving the real economy and new productive forces [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has consistently anticipated a trend towards technology and dividends. The report suggests that the current market style of extreme risk is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to be found in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market, which has been dormant for four years, is expected to rise again [6][16]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-cap blue chips across three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been underperforming for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and supply constraints may lead to price increases. Focus areas include mid-sized liquor companies, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][17]. 2. The cyclical sector is experiencing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic metals (such as antimony and rare earths), industrial metals (copper and aluminum), and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are seeing improved supply-demand dynamics [7][17]. 3. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification." Investment in this sector should focus on validating orders and revenues rather than speculative stories. Key areas include communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery, which are expected to show consistent performance [7][17]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: 1. Aerospace satellites: There is market divergence regarding the progress of the satellite industry next year, with expectations for continuous event catalysts related to reusable rockets, which could significantly boost industry development. The pace of industry IPOs is expected to accelerate, with opportunities in satellite constellation networking, satellite bidding, commercial rockets, and terminal applications [8][18]. 2. Upstream price increases: Supply constraints and structural demand growth are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20]. 3. Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution: Domestic wafer fabs are anticipated to expand next year, and the capitalization processes of domestic memory chip leaders are progressing. Attention should be given to domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials for domestic substitution [8][20]. 4. Artificial intelligence: Recent market divergences have been digested, and expectations for industry development are likely to continue rising, with a focus on robotics and computing power [8][20].

来源：一观大势 作者：方奕/郭胤含/李健/苏徽 核心观点：在较长时间横盘震荡后，中国股市将进入跨年攻势。12-2月是中国政策、流动性、基本面向 上共振的窗口期，指数有望迈上新台阶，看好科技/券商/消费。 摘要 ▶重振旗鼓：中国股市将向上迈出新台阶。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略作出 重要研判"关键位置：进入击球区，步出先手棋"，表态看好科技/券商/部分消费。近期，中国股市开始 企稳反弹，12月5日券商/保险拉升，激活市场人气。对后市，我们认为在较长时间的横盘整理后，中国 股市将进入跨年攻势，指数将向上迈出新台阶：1）经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，经 济日报金观平12月7日指出"宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助力经济发展"， 我们预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。2）考虑近期走弱的房地产销售面积，若 美联储12月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为2026年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。3）国家金融监管总 局下调保险公司权益入市风险因子；继2014/2019/2024年后，证监会再度表态，适度拓宽资本空间与杠 杆上限；改革提振中国市场风险偏好。 ...

来源：浙商证券 配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前 期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注 明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医 药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；全球地缘政治存在不确定性。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 来源：浙商证券 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较大、强势标的多数 还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后 市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方 面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例 如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the seasonal market rally known as "spring excitement," emphasizing its historical significance and the factors contributing to its occurrence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Significance of Spring Rally - The spring rally serves as a market response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [1][8]. - It provides a favorable opportunity for institutions to adjust their portfolios, especially after year-end assessment pressures ease [1][8]. - The rally reflects seasonal liquidity improvements, driven by capital inflows around the Spring Festival and heightened policy expectations [1][8]. Group 2: Core Causes of Spring Rally - The three main causes of the spring rally include: 1. Concentrated release of policy expectations [1][8]. 2. Seasonal changes in liquidity, including a narrowing M1-M2 gap and strong credit issuance at the beginning of the year [1][8]. 3. An earnings vacuum period that allows institutions to adjust their holdings [1][8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Rally Intensity - Historical analysis indicates that a strong spring rally typically requires one or a combination of the following conditions: 1. Short-term macroeconomic data (e.g., PMI, social financing, industrial value-added) significantly exceeding expectations, signaling economic stabilization or recovery [2][8]. 2. Overall corporate profitability entering an upward trajectory, with positive annual and quarterly earnings forecasts, free from major external disruptions [2][8]. 3. Clearly accommodative monetary policy, characterized by rising M1 growth, declining short-term interest rates, and enhanced credit pulses, providing ample liquidity support for high-elasticity assets [2][8]. Group 4: Changes in Funding Ecology - The current market sees two significant changes in funding ecology that may contribute to a stable increase in China's securitization rate: 1. The weakening of real estate investment attributes, with the equity market becoming a new primary venue for household assets [2][9]. 2. Indirect movement of household funds into the market, resulting in a continuous and stable influx of new capital [2][9]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting: 1. The dual driving forces of technology and cyclical opportunities, with cyclical prospects becoming more prominent amid anti-involution trends [4][11]. 2. Continued long-term advantages for technology sectors [4][11]. 3. Identification of opportunities in recently undervalued growth sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [4][11]. Group 6: Sector Allocation Recommendations - Recommendations for sector allocation include: 1. Internal recovery and high-low cuts within technology: military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware [5][12]. 2. Benefits from PPI improvement and broad anti-involution: solar energy, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [5][12]. 3. Long-term core holdings: stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-dividend stocks [5][12].

Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]