Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of 0.8%[6] - The CPI month-on-month remained flat at 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[6] - The decline in CPI is attributed to both base effects and weak month-on-month momentum[6] - Core inflation remains the main contributor, with clothing, services, and medical care showing positive growth, while food, housing, and transportation experienced negative growth[6][17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -1.9%[23] - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - The rise in PPI is driven by base effects and stronger month-on-month momentum, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector[23][32] - Non-ferrous metals continue to provide the main upward pressure on PPI, while other sectors like equipment and durable goods show slight improvements[32] Group 3: Price Transmission Issues - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by external factors, with limited transmission to downstream prices[35] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to lead to a significant rebound in CPI for February 2026, as historical trends suggest a month-on-month increase[35] - External geopolitical factors are expected to support PPI in the short term, but internal price transmission requires more demand-side policies and capacity clearing measures[35]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi has led to a decline of 1.61% in the benefiting sectors on the previous trading day, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4134.02, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14283.0, up 0.86% [1]. - The Renminbi appreciation benefiting sector saw a net outflow of 916 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 713 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 6.00, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 1.51 million shares and a transaction value of 9.19 million yuan [2]. - Other notable declines include China Duty Free Group (601888) down 2.92% and China Southern Airlines (600029) down 2.27% [2]. - In contrast, Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) saw a slight increase of 0.56%, closing at 7.22 with a transaction value of 3.617 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds showed a net inflow of 86.56 million yuan for Tongling Nonferrous Metals, while retail investors had a net outflow of 33.51 million yuan [3]. - For Sun Paper (002078), main funds had a net inflow of 22.31 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 5.22 million yuan [3]. - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among institutional and retail investors within the Renminbi appreciation benefiting sector [2][3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend on February 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.32% [2] - A total of 2,108 stocks rose, while 3,280 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2][3] AI Sector Performance - The AI sector in Hong Kong saw a significant surge, with Zhizhu (智谱) stock soaring by 30%, bringing its market capitalization close to HKD 200 billion, and its stock price doubling in just a few trading days [13] - Zhizhu released its new flagship model GLM-5, which has shown strong performance in coding and agent capabilities, competing closely with established models [13] - The company announced a structural price adjustment for its GLM Coding Plan, with an overall price increase starting from 30%, reflecting strong market demand and the need for enhanced service quality [13] Data Center and Cooling Technologies - The computing power industry chain showed strong performance, with companies like Youke (优刻得) and Capital Online (首都在线) hitting the daily limit of 20% increase [4] - In the liquid cooling server segment, stocks such as Chuanrun (川润股份) and Yingweike (英维克) also reached their daily limit [6] CPO Sector - Companies in the CPO (Cloud Point of Operation) sector, including Taicheng (太辰光) and Tianfu Communication (天孚通信), saw stock prices rise over 10%, reaching new highs [8] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector continued its upward trend, with stocks like Xianglu Tungsten (翔鹭钨业) and Zhangyuan Tungsten (章源钨业) hitting the daily limit [10] Media Sector Decline - The media sector faced a downturn, with stocks such as Hengdian Film (横店影视) and Jinyi Film (金逸影视) experiencing significant declines, including some hitting the daily limit down [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term pre - holiday stock index is expected to be in a strong sideways trend, accumulating strength for further upward movement. Long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - Copper prices may be in a sideways and slightly upward trend; aluminum prices are likely to maintain a sideways movement; there are low - buying opportunities for alumina; zinc prices are expected to move sideways, and it is advisable to wait and see; nickel prices are in a strong sideways trend in the short - term, and long - term high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. Stainless steel futures are in a strong movement, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and move in a sideways range in the short - term. Platinum and palladium are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1] - For industrial silicon, the northwest is increasing production while the southwest is reducing it. For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see. For lithium carbonate, there is a need for a correction [1] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is not recommended to hold unilateral speculative positions during the holiday. For iron ore, it is not advisable to chase long at the current position. For black metals like manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. For soda ash, the price is under pressure in the medium - term. For coking coal and coke, it is advisable to seize the opportunity of the price increase on the futures market to cash out the physical goods or establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position [1] - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For soybean oil, it is expected to move sideways in the short - term. For rapeseed oil, the subsequent supply contradiction is expected to ease. For cotton, the market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". For sugar, the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. For corn, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound movement. For soybeans, it is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of M2609 [1] - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see. For logs, the futures price has an upward driving force [1] - For fuel oil and asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and they follow crude oil. For rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber, the short - term is in a wide - range fluctuation, and BR rubber has an upward expectation in the long - term. For PTA and short - fiber, the downstream PTA industry is strong. For ethylene and glycol, the ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units, and the glycol price is waiting at a low level. For pure benzene, the import demand is weak. For styrene, the spot price is supported. For water hyacinth, the upside space is limited. For methanol, it is a situation of long - short entanglement. For PP, the supply pressure is relatively large. For PVC, the future expectation is relatively optimistic. For LPG, the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] - For the container shipping European line, the pre - holiday freight rate has peaked and declined. The airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term pre - holiday is expected to be in a strong sideways trend, and long - term long positions should be held [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has warned about interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pre - holiday downstream demand is weak, but copper prices may be in a sideways and slightly upward trend as market sentiment improves [1] - Aluminum: Industrial driving force is limited, and pre - holiday market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. Aluminum prices may maintain a sideways movement [1] - Alumina: Domestic operating capacity has decreased, and there are disruptions in the supply of a large - scale alumina enterprise in North China. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and market sentiment has stabilized. Zinc prices are expected to move sideways, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Nickel: The US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and market sentiment fluctuated. Indonesia's nickel ore quota policies have increased concerns about future supply. Short - term nickel prices are in a strong sideways trend, and there are high - inventory pressures in the long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and macro sentiment is fluctuating. Stainless steel futures are in a strong movement. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Tin: The short - term market sentiment has stabilized, but the price fluctuation is still large. In the short - term high - volatility situation, investors should pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals: The US non - farm payrolls in January were strong, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed. Due to high geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and move in a sideways range in the short - term [1] - Platinum and palladium: The US non - farm payrolls in January were strong, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing the upward trend. However, fundamentals and key minerals support the prices, so they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [1] - Industrial silicon: The northwest is increasing production, while the southwest is reducing it. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Lithium carbonate: It is the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price has increased significantly and needs a correction [1] Black metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Spot trading is close to suspension, and futures prices are moving sideways. It is not recommended to hold unilateral speculative positions during the holiday. It is advisable to participate in the market by going long on the basis [1] - Iron ore: There is sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure. It is not advisable to chase long at the current position [1] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: It is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution may have an impact on supply [1] - Soda ash: It follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: It is the off - season for black metals, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is almost over. The futures market is more affected by capital sentiment. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of price increase on the futures market to cash out the physical goods or establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position [1] - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The MPOB monthly report data has a bullish expectation difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, which has little impact on the futures market. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1] - Soybean oil: Supported by the strong movement of US soybeans, the South American weather is normal, and it is difficult to have weather - related speculation. More attention should be paid to the Sino - US soybean trade situation [1] - Rapeseed oil: The anti - dumping final ruling result of Canadian rapeseed has been released. After March, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15%. Some oil mills have started purchasing, and the subsequent supply contradiction is expected to ease [1] - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force" [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force, and attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] - Corn: Affected by the import restriction news, the futures market is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on - the - ground grain in the production area. The overall market is expected to maintain a range - bound movement [1] - Soybeans: The expected increase in US soybean exports has boosted the US futures market, but the decline in Brazilian basis has partially offset the impact. The domestic futures market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of M2609 [1] Others - Pulp: There are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side has weakened after inventory replenishment. It is advisable to wait and see when the commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has increased, the arrival volume in February has decreased, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1] Energy and chemical industry - Fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the commodity market sentiment has cooled. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The 14th Five - Year Plan rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] - Natural rubber: The raw material cost has strong support, the commodity market sentiment fluctuates, the pre - holiday downstream demand has weakened, and the futures - spot price difference has expanded to the same - period high [1] - BR rubber: The cost - end butadiene has strong bottom support, the profit of private butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss, the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, the butadiene inventory is decreasing, and the high inventory of butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - PTA: The PX - mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction, and the downstream PTA industry is strong. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no production - reduction plan for the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1] - Ethylene and glycol: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the glycol price is waiting at a low level [1] - Pure benzene: The inventory is high, and the import demand is weak. The US - Asia price difference is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising cost - end prices [1] - Water hyacinth: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. There is support from anti - involution and the cost end [1] - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. It is a situation of long - short entanglement [1] - PP: The supply pressure is relatively large due to high operating load, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and crude oil is in a slightly upward trend [1] - PVC: The global production capacity put into operation in 2026 is small, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1] - LPG: The February CP price has risen, and the March purchase is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, the short - term risk premium has declined, and the overseas cold - wave driving logic has gradually slowed down. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping European line: The pre - holiday freight rate has peaked and declined. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize gradually after the Spring Festival holiday, with investors advised to hold stocks during the holiday, focusing on domestic demand and emerging technology sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently fluctuating around the 4100-point mark, with a noticeable decline in trading volume [1] - Positive factors for the market include the global market pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while domestic policies are shifting towards prioritizing domestic demand [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized efforts to maintain a stable and positive trend in the capital market, leading to a surge in stock buybacks by A-share companies [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Two main investment directions are recommended: 1. Domestic demand value, with a high probability of outperformance post-holiday, focusing on sectors like food, retail, tourism services, hotels, and commodities such as oil, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2] 2. Emerging technology, highlighting the competition between China and the U.S. in production efficiency, with attention on sectors like internet, media, computing, robotics, electronics, military industry, and energy storage [2]

Market Overview - On February 11, major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09% and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%[2] - The total trading volume was 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 120 billion yuan from the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors declined, with construction materials, non-ferrous metals, steel, and chemicals showing the most significant gains, while media, telecommunications, electronics, and military industries faced the largest declines[1] - The leading sectors included chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and oil, which outperformed the broader market index during the same period[1] Capital Flow - On February 11, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 15.499 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 2.915 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were small metals, batteries, and glass fiber, while the sectors with the highest outflows were communication equipment, advertising, and semiconductors[3] Economic Indicators - January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year increase, primarily affected by the timing of the Spring Festival, with energy prices dropping by 5.0%, contributing to a 0.34 percentage point decrease in CPI[7] - The core CPI maintained a moderate upward trend, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[7] Industry Dynamics - In January, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 2.5% and 0.1%[8] - The overall automotive market remained stable, with total production and sales of 2.45 million and 2.346 million vehicles, showing a production increase of 0.01% but a sales decrease of 3.2% year-on-year[9] Investment Sentiment - Over 60% of private equity firms plan to maintain high positions during the holiday, with an average calculated position of 75.68% among surveyed firms, reflecting positive expectations for the A-share market[12][13]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 12 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：成交下降波动收窄 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前情绪延续偏暖 4 | | 蛋白粕：盘面减仓力度增加 | 价格大幅上涨 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：美糖跌破下方支撑 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：假期临近震荡回落，整体维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体支撑 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 11 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡承压 14 | | --- | | 双焦：春节临近煤矿陆续放假，年后需关注国内外煤炭市场变化 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 16 | | 金银： 非农数据现分歧 市场博弈转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese securities market showed significant vitality in 2025, with technology and resources as key themes. The market is expected to maintain its active performance in 2026, supported by ongoing industrial transformation, favorable top-level policies, and a downward trend in interest rates leading to increased market participation from residents [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The manager believes that the earnings effect in the equity market will remain substantial in 2026 due to three supporting forces: ongoing industrial transformation, supportive policies for the capital market, and the unchanged logic of residents' deposits entering the market [1][10]. - After a notable rise in 2025, some industries and stocks have completed valuation recovery, indicating a need to lower return expectations and focus more on safety margins. A flexible position control and sensitivity to market fluctuations will be essential [1][10]. Group 2: Stock Investment Focus - The focus will be on hard technology, cyclical industries, globally competitive manufacturing, and the silver economy. The manager emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with high technological barriers, good competitive landscapes, and significant growth potential that are relatively under the market's radar [4][13]. - Some cyclical industries may have reached a turning point in supply-demand dynamics, particularly those with high global market share and domestic concentration, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal, which are expected to see performance and valuation reversals in 2026 [4][13]. Group 3: Bond Investment Strategy - For convertible bonds, the current valuations may be at an inconvenient level, with some high-priced, high-premium targets potentially facing valuation risks. The strategy will focus on high-volatility balance strategies, seeking targets with significant stock volatility and reasonable convertible bond pricing [14]. - In pure bond investments, the market is expected to remain in a sideways trading phase with limited further volatility. A neutral duration will be maintained to balance coupon income while providing a hedge against equity assets [15]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The manager employs a rigorous engineering research spirit to deeply analyze individual stocks, focusing on macro trends, industrial changes, and technological advancements to uncover investment opportunities in technology growth, dividend stocks, and cyclical reversals [16]. - The investment approach emphasizes independent thinking, thorough research of underlying technical details, and the identification of high-quality stocks to provide better returns and holding experiences for investors [16].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.09%, closing at 4131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% [1] - A total trading volume of approximately 2 trillion yuan was recorded, a decrease of over 120 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market closed in the red, with sectors like short drama games and film stocks facing significant declines [1] Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber manufacturing sector saw a remarkable surge, with nearly all stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - Major companies like International Composites and Changhai Co. experienced significant price increases, with International Composites reaching a 20% limit up shortly after market open [2] - Recent price hikes in electronic cloth by leading companies indicate a tightening supply, driven by increased demand from AI chip production [2][3] - The expected net profits for International Composites and Honghe Technology in 2025 are projected to be between 260 million to 350 million yuan and 193 million to 226 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a rise in glass fiber product prices [3] Nonferrous Metals and Steel - The nonferrous metals sector, particularly tungsten stocks, showed strong performance, with companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xianglu Tungsten hitting the daily limit up [4] - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 48.9% since the beginning of the year [4] - The steel sector also performed well, with companies like Baodi Mining and Dazhong Mining showing notable gains [5] - The National Market Supervision Administration is focusing on optimizing traditional industries, which may positively impact the steel and nonferrous metals sectors [5] Media Sector - The media sector, particularly film stocks, experienced a downturn, with companies like Huanxi Media and Huace Film falling over 10% [6] - Huanxi Media issued a risk warning regarding its stock price, which had surged over 100% in the previous 10 trading days, indicating potential market overheating [6] - The company has invested in several films for the upcoming Spring Festival, but the market performance remains uncertain due to low investment ratios and the nascent stage of its AI short drama business [6]